NFL Prediction Machine: 2012 Washington Redskins Will Have 7 Wins

Sounds about right. I get a lot of emails with crap informative stats like this, but the Predictalator stood out for three reasons:

  • For the Redskins 2011 season, it predicted 6 wins (still under the Vegas 6.5)....Skins finished with 5.
  • Since launching in January 2010, this technology is over 70% against-the-spread with Locks of the Week.
  • With a perfect 2011 post-season, the Predictalator is now 12-0 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games.
So, as of right now, both the Football Outsiders (6.8) and the Predictalator (7.3) think the Redskins will cover their season win total of 6.5 wins. All we need is Miss Cleo's prediction for the Triple Crown. An interesting tidbit from the wins and losses breakdown (after the jump), the Prediction Machine has the Redskins going 0-6 in the NFC East, which I guess from a high-level matchup standpoint makes sense, but Shanahan has won two games against NFC foes each of the last two years. Maybe the Predictalator forgot to add the crystals. For what it's worth, it has the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.

So how does this this thing work? After the jump...
Just as the Predictalator plays each individual NFL game 50,000 times before it's actually played, it can also play the entire NFL season 50,000 times before it's actually played. In general, we apply strength-of-schedule-adjusted, relevant statistics from the player's most recent 64 professional games (~4 seasons of data that are weighted more heavily on the most recent 16 games) to a fairly traditional player development curve that considers age and previous playing time. Not only does this development curve help to set average inputs, it combines with health history to dictate the variance ("boom or bust" potential) of a player's inputs.

Super Bowl
Philadelphia 28 over New England 26

Here are the Redskins game-by-game projections

Week

Opponent

Redskins Score

Opponent Score

Win %

1

@ Saints

25.3

31

37.3

2

@ Rams

20

20.9

47.5

3

Bengals

20.6

18.9

54.7

4

@ Buccaneers

26.8

22

61.5

5

Falcons

22.3

22.3

50

6

Vikings

27.9

16.6

78.7

7

@ Giants

19.8

27.3

31.5

8

@ Steelers

15.3

25.6

22.3

9

Panthers

28.6

24.6

59.5

10

Bye

11

Eagles

18.7

24

36.2

12

@ Cowboys

20

26.8

33.3

13

Giants

23

24.4

46.6

14

Ravens

17.4

19.7

43.5

15

@ Browns

20.4

20.1

50.8

16

@ Eagles

16.4

25.2

26.9

17

Cowboys

23.2

23.3

49.9

Pts/Game

Pts/Game

Total Wins

21.6

23.3

7.3

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