Sounds about right. I get a lot of emails with crap informative stats like this, but the Predictalator stood out for three reasons:
- For the Redskins 2011 season, it predicted 6 wins (still under the Vegas 6.5)....Skins finished with 5.
- Since launching in January 2010, this technology is over 70% against-the-spread with Locks of the Week.
- With a perfect 2011 post-season, the Predictalator is now 12-0 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games.
Just as the Predictalator plays each individual NFL game 50,000 times before it's actually played, it can also play the entire NFL season 50,000 times before it's actually played. In general, we apply strength-of-schedule-adjusted, relevant statistics from the player's most recent 64 professional games (~4 seasons of data that are weighted more heavily on the most recent 16 games) to a fairly traditional player development curve that considers age and previous playing time. Not only does this development curve help to set average inputs, it combines with health history to dictate the variance ("boom or bust" potential) of a player's inputs.
Super Bowl
Philadelphia 28 over New England 26
Here are the Redskins game-by-game projections
|
Week |
Opponent |
Redskins Score |
Opponent Score |
Win % |
|
1 |
@ Saints |
25.3 |
31 |
37.3 |
|
2 |
@ Rams |
20 |
20.9 |
47.5 |
|
3 |
20.6 |
18.9 |
54.7 |
|
|
4 |
26.8 |
22 |
61.5 |
|
|
5 |
22.3 |
22.3 |
50 |
|
|
6 |
27.9 |
16.6 |
78.7 |
|
|
7 |
@ Giants |
19.8 |
27.3 |
31.5 |
|
8 |
@ Steelers |
15.3 |
25.6 |
22.3 |
|
9 |
28.6 |
24.6 |
59.5 |
|
|
10 |
Bye |
|
|
|
|
11 |
Eagles |
18.7 |
24 |
36.2 |
|
12 |
@ Cowboys |
20 |
26.8 |
33.3 |
|
13 |
Giants |
23 |
24.4 |
46.6 |
|
14 |
17.4 |
19.7 |
43.5 |
|
|
15 |
@ Browns |
20.4 |
20.1 |
50.8 |
|
16 |
@ Eagles |
16.4 |
25.2 |
26.9 |
|
17 |
Cowboys |
23.2 |
23.3 |
49.9 |
|
|
Pts/Game |
Pts/Game |
Total Wins |
|
|
|
21.6 |
23.3 |
7.3 |
|


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