I found this to be an interesting ESPN article, although it made a case off a very small sample size that basically trades for players in skill positions have not been that successful.
Obviously the article would be fully confirmed by Redskins experience (and not just at skill positions). But it immediately made me think about this year's FA class. I know a lot of people are excited about Garcon and Morgan, but I am wondering if the dynamics are working for them or against them in this respect. More after the jump.
I am sure that someone has done a similar analysis of FA signing success. Hopefully they left out Fat Albert and McNabb so the results aren't horribly biased. I am going to look for something on this topic. But in the meantime, absent any data, is there a reason to be more optimistic about FA signings rather than player trades?
Why you would expect similar success rate between FA signings and traded players: both represent players that have been specifically targeted by a coaching staff to fill a need.
Why you would expect a better success rate for FA signings vs. traded players: a) FA signings are on average earlier than trades I would guess. So FA guys have better odds of getting into camp, learning the scheme, building chemistry with the team, etc. b) FA guys (at least the first wave guys) are more likely to have had success, vs. a traded player where the team might have given up on him or decided he was too expensive and not working out.
Why you would expect a worse success rate for FA signings than traded players: a) player who just got big payday after contract year is less hungry and b) conversely traded player is out to prove himself and to prove his previous coaches / team were wrong.
So does anyone know a good source for this while I am looking for it? But, more importantly, what is your take: are FA signings more or less likely to succeed than traded players? I am leaning towards FA signings but can't really make a convincing case either way. But I am sure the more knowledgable people here will be able to set me straight. If it is a favorable headwind for Garcon/Morgan/etc., good news.