Handicapping the 2012 NFL Win Total Odds

Vegas released odds on the win totals for each NFL team this year. I made three bets last year in July that paid off pretty well. I bet the under on the Colts and Redskins last year, both of which were winners. I generally like to place my bets closer to pre-season when the depth charts are more well-known, but we'll take some early shots here:

Washington Redskins: 6.5 (Over: even, Under: -130)
Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 (Over: -125, Under: -105)
New York Giants: 9.5 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10 (Over: -135, Under: +105)
(..rest of the teams after the jump...)

  • Even with Hakeem Nicks breaking his foot (Tom Coughlin said "it'll be close" if he returns week one), I still like the over for the Giants. A smart Quarterback and a top ranked defense.
  • The under for the Jets intrigues me because I think the Tebow drama will be a major distraction all year, and we know very well in Washington how that type of negative media affects a team.
  • The Broncos OVER at 9.5 looks solid as well. I mean, the Broncos made the playoffs with Tebow as their QB. Peyton Manning should easily get them 11 wins. Even if his head falls off mid-season, that defense can still win games.
  • Saints should not be at 10 wins. I'm liking the UNDER there.
What say you?

And here are the O/Us:

Green Bay Packers: 12 (Over: -125, Under: -105)
New England Patriots: 12 (Over: -120, Under: -110)
Houston Texans: 10 (Over: -140, Under: +110)
New Orleans Saints: 10 (Over: -125, Under: -105)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10 (Over: -125, Under: -105)
Baltimore Ravens: 10 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
San Francisco 49ers: 10 (Over: +105, Under: -135)
Denver Broncos: 9.5 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Detroit Lions: 9.5 (Over: +105, Under: -135)
San Diego Chargers: 9 (Over: -130, Under: even)
Atlanta Falcons: 9 (Over: +105, Under: -135)
Chicago Bears: 8.5 (Over: -135, Under: +105)
New York Jets: 8.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
Kansas City Chiefs: 8 (Over: -120, Under: -110)
Cincinnati Bengals: 7.5 (Over: -130, Under: even)
Carolina Panthers: 7.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
Miami Dolphins: 7.5 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Tennessee Titans: 7 (Over: -130, Under: even)
Buffalo Bills: 7 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Seattle Seahawks: 7 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Oakland Raiders: 7 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Arizona Cardinals: 7 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
St. Louis Rams: 6 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
Minnesota Vikings: 6 (Over: even, Under: -130)
Cleveland Browns: 5.5 (Over: even, Under: -130)
Indianapolis Colts: 5.5 (Over: +105, Under: -135)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5.5 (Over: +105, Under: -135)

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