OK while we are in the long slow offseason rumination mode I thought I would check out the success rate for NFL draftees by round. Bad idea, depressing stats. But I have an idea why McRib will be fairly effective, and it is at least partially based on statistics...more after the jump
Every year I seem to just latch on to a draft pick in the mid-range rounds. I just like to have a rooting interest in individual players based on some quirk or something that caught my attention. I don't pretend to have any special knowledge on why the guy I pick might succeed generally, it's more just interesting guys that seem likable and perhaps next level guys. For the last 4 drafts my record is pretty mediocre: I went Chad Reinhart (seems to be doing pretty good, but not for the team that drafted him in 3rd round), Jeremy Jarmon (others convinced me this was a steal at the time), Perry Riley, and Roy Helu (hey maybe I am getting better at this). I guess my record is better than the average NFL success rate, but I am not claiming any expertise here.
So this year I have decided McRib is my personal rooting interest in the off-season. The guy has such an interesting history and seems so colorful, that even with his funny stuff (really? someone else changed your major? weren't you in charge of that like the rest of the college students? did you really stab a carny with a dart when you were 5?) and weight gain / loss stuff, I liked the description as a nasty guy in the trenches. If nothing else, if a guy is maybe a bit short on pure ability (combine #s or whatever), they will be that much hungrier (pun intended). And, like others, I hunger (ok too much) for a better OL.
So here is my approach to explore this. #1 figure out the general success rate for 3rd round picks #2 do some more research to 'equalize' this a bit - for example a 3rd round C is probably a higher bet on average than a 3rd round QB 3) explore why some of McRib's intangibles might make him even more likely than the averages to succeed and become a starter at some point.
So all I have to offer at this point is #1. If the success rate is defined as becoming a starter, the odds for 3rd round picks are about 15%. If it is defined as being a reliable backup, it appears to be around 25%. There are multiple sources for this, I will add them shortly.
Perhaps only I (and McRib) are interested in his logical odds of success, but I thought I would try to spend some more time figuring out why a) because he is an interior lineman, he probably has a significantly higher chance of success than the entire group of third round picks b) because he is going to a team with a less-than-dominant OL, that would increase his odds further, and c) because of his nasty streak and hungry (really?) attitude, he has an even greater chance.
But if no one else is interested in this topic, I'll not do the statistical analysis and just stop here and hope that McRib beats the odds. I think it will make a great training camp story and I am looking forward to it.