FanPost

We overpaid for a lottery ticket that may still put us in the money





Now that the trade has happened, we need to hope that RG3 pans out...and get behind him and enjoy the show. All that said, I think we overpaid.

This feels very much like a Dan Snyder buzz move. And I'm really worried that Shanny's job wants played into rolling the dice. In short it was a desperation move. It might pay off...but if you take enough big bets with bad odds, you lose over the years. I think the Donavon move was bad too (Jason would have produced better for Shanny. Donavon, too felt like a DanS move to get buzz in DC.)

Here is a mathematical analogy: Let's say you have a lottery ticket that has a 10% chance of delivering $1 million. How much is that worth? Well, it is worth $100,000 (10% times 1 million). If you pay 150,000 for that ticket, you overpaid. This is the case, even if you get lucky and it pays off. Same thing, if you get the lottery ticket for 75,000. That's a good deal and a smart move. Even if it craps out. The point is, the good franchises make bet after bet over the years. And if you consistenly make them in your favor, you rack up the returns.

Us instead, overpaid for a lottery ticket. If Dan Snyder were a good businessman, he would have shot this down. Shanny took him for a ride. This is like a CEO betting the company at the shareholder's expense (on a bad merger) just to keep his job. It is called "agency effect" in economics. Shanny took a chance that is in his interests (go big or go home), but that was not smart from the team's perspective.

P.s. I wonder why not just go for Rogers or Brees with that kind of draft pick horde?
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