Trading Up Is Not The Solution. Here's why.
by TheDeepBall on Feb 9, 2012 9:19 PM EST
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PrintI know, I know. This again. I am sure many people are tired of talking about this. And yet, reading through the most recent fanposts, it seems that we are not. First I must say that the title of this post is a bit weak for the content of this post. This post is not just about trading up. It is about many things, including trading back, the QB situation, the effect of a QB on a team, what makes a winning team, and so forth.
I am writing this post for 3 reasons:
First, because I think it's a good idea to lay out my full position on this subject in one place. I am leaving on Monday for Coast Guard Basic Training, and therefore will not be around to reply to new posts for at least the next 2 months.
Second, there have been an overwhelming number of fanposts in recent months either directly or indirectly in favor of trading up. This is but one fanpost, but it is my attempt to try and balance the scales a little bit.
Third, this post serves as a belated response to this post by mmford10, which basically sums up the reasons for which most commenters here think we should trade up. It is for this reason that I will also follow a similar format to mmford10's post, as it is essentially the antithesis of said post.
Topic One: Trading Up for RG3
Because it is mentioned in the title, it is only fitting that I first explain why I am against trading up. First, were going to have to accept that Andrew Luck is out of the question. The Colts are taking him at #1.
I think it's best to start with the most controversial topic in this subject, because it attacks the very essence of the argument for trading up.
Myth: Robert Griffin III is a lock to be a top QB in the NFL.
I know that this opinion is not a popular one. Let me first ask you to do one thing: Forget for a moment what the scouts say. They have been wrong time and time and time again. The scouts once proclaimed Ryan Leaf to be a sure lock for top 10 status in the NFL. They said the same thing about Jamarcus Russel and Heath Shuler. The list goes on. This is an old, tired argument, and I'm sure many will be quick to tell me there are some differences between these prospects. Before any of you do so, I want you to realize something: THAT IS NOT THE POINT.
The point is that the scouts are quite frequently wrong. They, like everyone else, often get taken in by the hype surrounding a player, and in turn generate even more hype over a prospect. They are not immune to opinion, nor are they immune to peer pressure. So before you go off on me about how RG3 is one of the highest rated prospects in years, I am going to ask you to throw scouts' opinion on the matter out the window for just a moment.
The next point I will make is that I am not saying that RG3 is going to be a bust. I am just saying he may be somewhat overrated as a prospect. I am not so foolish as to declare RG3 a bust before he ever takes an NFL snap.
However, consider:
1. RG3 is 6'2 220 pounds and is a running QB. Consider that this is almost exactly the same size as Michael Vick - the same Michael Vick who has played a 16 game season exactly ONE time in his entire career. The injury risk for RG3 is very real, and very similar to Vick's. He is able to get away with it in college because quit simply, college is different. The hits aren't as hard, the game isn't as fast, the players aren't as big. If RG3 is not likely to finish 16 games in most seasons, do you still want to trade up for him?
2. RG3 does not exactly have strong competition. The defenses that he played against this season, with the exception of Texas, are not very good.
Here are the rankings for the Defenses he played this season:
TCU: 32
Stephen F Austin – Unranked
Rice – 111
Kansas St. – 74
Iowa st – 99
Texas A&M – 66
Oklahoma State – 107
Missouri – 61
Kansas – 120
Oklahoma – 62
Texas Tech – 115
Texas – 14
Washington – 94
He played only 2 teams in the top 50 in defense. He played 7 teams that were ranked 90th or worse. This is not exactly an apt environment to test a QB's ability. Yes, he had big numbers against them. So did everyone else. I am not arguing that RG3 isn't talented. He very much is. The problem is that he may be given more credit than he is due.
These two points in mind, it is my very firm opinion that trading up for Robert Griffin will be a mistake. Yes, it can almost be said without a doubt he will be at least a decent player in the NFL. However, I find it hard to believe he will live up to either the hype that currently surrounds him or the #2 pick. I hope that now you understand why.
Myth: Trading up will only cost 2 or 3 picks.
It seems to be another popular opinion that trading up will be relatively "cheap". It won't. Put simply, there is precedent all over the place.
In 1998 the Chargers gave up their 1st, 2nd, 1999 1st, and a 3 time pro bowler to move up ONE spot for Ryan Leaf.
In 1999 we have the infamous Ricky Williams trade.
In 2001, the Falcons gave up their 1st (#5 overall), 2nd,and 3rd round picks, as well, as a 4th round Wide Receiver to trade up 4 spots for Michael Vick.
in 2003, The Jets traded 2 first round picks (in that same year - one was from Washington) and a 4th to move up to the 4th pick to get Dewayne Robertson.
in 2004, the Chargers traded the #1 overall pick for the #4 and the Giant's 3rd, 2005 1st, and 2005 5th.
In 2011, the Browns traded the 6th pick for Atlanta's 1st (27th overall), 2nd, 4th, 2012 1st, and 4th.
For the record, every trade last year was for quite a bit more than the draft chart's suggested value.
Expect that trend to continue. Should the Redskins try to trade up, it will cost no less than 4 high round picks.
Anyways, on to the next topic
Topic 2: The Quarterback vs. The Team
I understand that through reading this segment several people will be saying to themselves "but a good QB makes the whole team better!" To this I say "well, duh". My argument is that while this is true, it is not true to the extent that some make it out to be. This segment will attempt to explain why I believe this to be so. To do this I must dismantle the arguments based around winning teams with top QBs.
Myth: Several teams that went to the playoffs this year had QBs who carried bad Defenses.
Total Yardage Allowed is a stat that simply doesn't make sense as a gauge of Defensive strength. Many people say that the Patriots and the Packers had "historically bad" defenses. Well, no, they didn't. Here's why.
I only put stock in 2 defensive statistics: Points Allowed, and Turnovers forced. Here are the regular season stats for each team in the playoffs:
Team – Points Allowed Ranking – Total Turnovers Forced
Steelers – 1 – 15
49ers – 2 – 38
Ravens – 3 – 26
Texans – 4 – 27
Bengals – 9 – 22
Saints – 13 – 16
Patriots – 15 – 34
Falcons – 18 – 29
Packers – 19 – 38
Lions – 23 – 34
Broncos – 24 – 18
Giants – 25 – 31
4 of the teams happen to be right at the top. another is ranked in the top 10. As you can see, the Patriots and Packers were far from "historically bad".
The final 3 can be explained fairly easily. The Giants and the Broncos were in very weak divisions this season. The did not need strong Defensive play to squeak into the playoffs as they did. The Lions played some of the most explosive offenses in football - and their Defensive ranking was a little better before that week 17 debacle.
Myth: A good Offensive Line is not required if you have a good QB
I cannot begin to tell you how frustrating it is to hear this. here are the Offensive Line stats for each playoff team.
Team – Pass Protection ranking – Run Blocking ranking.
Saints – 3 – 1
Bengals – 4 – 20
Giants – 6 – 28
Falcons – 7 – 27
Patriots – 8 – 2
Lions – 10 – 31
Ravens – 12 – 6
Steelers – 20 – 3
Texans – 22 – 4
Packers – 23 – 16
49ers – 25 – 21
Broncos – 29 – 11
As you can see, 9 of the teams that went to the playoffs were i the top 10 in at least one OL category. The Patriots and Saints were top 10 in both. The 49ers were primarily a Defensive team, while the Packers seem to have great talent at literally every single position except on their Offensive Line. The Broncos were, again, in a weak division.
These previous 2 points lead me directly into the next topic.
Topic 3: How the Redskins match up.
The moment of truth. After showing you how each playoff team relied on much more than their QB, it's time to see how the Redskins did by comparison.
Myth: The Redskins Offensive Line was coming together at the end of the season.
Looking up the stats for the Offensive Line, the Redskins offensive line actually did improve, at least in terms of ranking, as the season neared its close. I know a bunch of you are about to jump on me for calling this a myth and then saying it's a truth, but the simple fact is, it's a myth. Before you go berserk on me I'd like to point out why.
Rex Grossman actually saved a ton of sacks.
Yeah. I just blew your mind. But it's the truth. Rex found himself throwing the ball away a lot this season. People got on John Beck's back for not just throwing the ball away when under pressure in his 3 starts. The thing is, the OL while playing with John Beck at the helm is the more accurate depiction of our OL talent. I know this sounds confusing for a lot of you, because I know you really like piling a lot of crap on our QBs. But the point is, the Redskins allowed the 3rd MOST QB hits. That is one statistic not included in Football Outsider's pass blocking statistics. Rex and Beck took a combined 108 hits this season after getting rid of the ball. Since Beck tended to take the sack more often than not, it's pretty obvious Rex was actually saving sacks by throwing the ball away. frequently.
No playoff team allowed as many QB hits as the Redskins. In fact, the only playoff team among the worst 10 in QB hits allowed were the 49ers, and to put this in perspective, the 49ers still allowed 26 fewer QB hits and only 3 more sacks. The Offensive Line is atrocious.
Myth: The Redskins Defense is a good defense.
The Redskins Defense was 21st in the league in points allowed. That is worse than 9 of the teams that went to the playoffs, including the Patriots, Packers, and Saints, those teams that are widely considered bad. I don't think I have to say much more on this subject since it's pretty concrete. But the defense leads me to my next point, and it's one that annoys me quite a bit.
Myth: DeAngelo Hall is a good Cornerback, or even a serviceable one.
Many here on Hogs Haven have suggested that the Defense is adequate for winning games. If only we had a better offense!
I'm sad to sad that this isn't quite true. Our secondary is in desperate need of help. Some people will scoff at me for saying we MUST replace DeAngelo Hall in order to have a solid defense. We also need at least one new Safety, but I am not going to focus on that right now. Right now we'll take a look at our most desperate need on Defense.
DeAngelo Hall is easily the biggest hole on defense. As is described in this article, he is routinely among the worst Cornerbacks in the league. He is consistently in the bottom 10.
Anyways, it's getting late writing this so I will stop here. I hope some of you understand what I'm trying to get across.
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Comments
My problem with this theory is . . .
The Redskins and Skins fans in general seem so afraid of taking a chance. We keep telling ourselves, “look, Grossman can manage a game,” or “Campbell is athletic enough and doesn’t make a ton of mistakes,” or “drafting in the mid rounds allows us to develop someone.” We are so SCARED of taking a chance on someone. Yes, Griffin could end up being a bust . . . so could anyone. We psych ourselves out and are seem content to just continue to draft “prospects” guys that “need work.” We’ve had 20+ Qbs in this town since Joey T got his leg broken. Its time to take a chance on a dynamic playmaker who is as smart as he is talented.
Vote Quimby
by mason_beer on Feb 9, 2012 9:46 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Put it this way
We have far too many holes to be trading away our picks right now. it’s not about being scared, or psyching ourselves out. It’s about fixing the problems of the last 20 years before throwing some kid in there to get killed.
I am perfectly fine with taking griffin if he falls to us at 6. But we simply cannot afford t trade up. Given the right circumstances, Griffin could easy be an excellent QB in the NFL. The problem is, those circumstances don’t exist here, and they won’t exist here for a while if we trade away our picks.
Smart money doesn't play scared...
So I think your assertion that those of us on the other side of the fence are "scared to take a chance" is also a myth. We are not scared to take a risk, but it has to be a calculated risk… and when you do the calculations objectively as this writer has done, it just doesn’t make sense.
Playing scared is what the front office will be doing if they think their jobs depend on getting a franchise quarterback this year.
And if this is truly the case, then the real problem lies with Dan Snyder (but I think most of us already knew that)
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Shanny isn't afraid to be fired, his pink slips comes with a $12mill check or whatever.
If they make the move up, it’s because Shanny believes RG3 is a rare talent that he can mold into an elite, franchise qb. And if he does believe that, why shouldnt they make the trade and address the lost picks via FA?
I agree
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
the problem has always been with Snyder
We would have had 6-7 winning seasons in a row if Snyder hadn’t fired Schottenheimer. He might not know how to win playoff games but every time he’s built a team (Browns, Chiefs, Chargers) they ended up being perrenial playoff teams. Worst owner move EVER.
Where is Marty today?
I haven’t seen him win anything in a long time…maybe he is an assistant on Jim Fassel’s staff
he's retired because he is well past retirement age and he has a boat load of cash
After building the Chargers to a 14-2 team and then getting replaced by a loser like Norv Turner he probably had enough of BS owners.
You can't draft a QB thinking that he may be a bust.
If the coaching staff is worried that RG3 won’t be good, then you don’t take him point blank. All of this Tim Couch was a bust and Ryan Leaf was bust does not matter. If management thinks he’s a franchise QB then you go after him if there is any doubt, you leave him alone.
The myth that it will cost a lot of draft picks also should not matter for us. You give RG3 a value, then you translate that into a trade offer. Either the Rams/Vikings take it or they don’t. Obviously we can’t give up our entire future for RG3, but their has to be a sweet spot where we are willing to sacrifice some draft-picks/players for RG3. If the Rams/Vikings are asking more than what we value RG3 we don’t go after him.
When it comes to the QB vs. The Team the subject becomes more nuanced. I always find it funny that the teams with great defenses like the Ravens and the Steelers realized that they needed a franchise QB to win, but skins fans constantly argue otherwise. Look at the Jets this year, good o-line, and great defense but destroyed by QB play. To win in this league you need a QB who you can give the ball to with the game on the line, and believe that he can lead you to victory.
Ultimately, I don’t understand why you portray the issue as an either or. To win in this league you need to have everything. A good Qb, a good running game, good wr’s, good o-line, good d-line, good linebacker’s, and a good secondary. The fact is that most of those positions can be found in free agency or late in the draft, while Franchise QB’s are seldom found in free agency or late in the draft. Do all 1st round QB’s work out? No of course not, but most QB’s who do work out are drafted in the 1st round.
by bigmikeemike09 on Feb 9, 2012 10:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
i am not advocating against taking RG3 at 6
I am just against trading up to get him.
Ultimately, I don’t understand why you portray the issue as an either or. To win in this league you need to have everything. A good Qb, a good running game, good wr’s, good o-line, good d-line, good linebacker’s, and a good secondary. The fact is that most of those positions can be found in free agency or late in the draft, while Franchise QB’s are seldom found in free agency or late in the draft.
That is precisely the point I am trying to make, but we disagree on where these positions can be found. You cant rely on the later rounds for anything. If you happen to hit on a few guys in the back of the draft, cool, but you can’t assume you’re going to get one. The top rounds are just as important for the other positions as they are for the QB.
Let me ask you a question
And I don’t have the answer, but it would be interesting to evaluate this theory.
That is precisely the point I am trying to make, but we disagree on where these positions can be found. You cant rely on the later rounds for anything
What is the weighted average draft position of NFL starters by position? My suspicion is that QB is the highest, but I could be wrong. If that is the case, what would that do to your take on this specific assertion? I am not asking in reference to trading up, I am asking specifically in relation to the assertion above.
I would also be interested if this info is actually available.
That is a lot of work
to try and figure that out myself, and if it is available I wouldn’t even know where to begin looking for it (beyond google, which I just tried).
I think it’s a given that once you’re past the 3rd round you’re mainly looking for depth or project players. Certainly you have some exceptions who turn out to be starters right away, but those are rare.
+1000
I totally agree, it is way harder to build up your entire team to a great level than to get a Franchise QB that will help you win games. EVERY TEAM has holes the Giants just won the Super Bowl and they have holes but when you have that guy behind center that can make the plays when he has too like Eli did this year in the 4th Quarter you always have a chance to win.
It is a fact that having a good to great QB improves the play of your offensive line, First off they get rid off the football and avoid hits, they extend the play like Big Ben, Aaron Rodger or Mike Vick and also most of the top quaterbacks DO NOT get blitzed as much as teams with mediocre and below QB play.
And Robert Griffin III has all the tools to be a great NFL Quaterback and face of the franchise. This guy after 3 games into the season had more touchdown passes than incompletions, completing like 85% of his passes, that is not hype that is straight up balling, he play in the Big 12 not some division II or III tyoe of school, most of the best defenses are in the SEC cause they play a different brand of football, more run oriented offenses therefore their defenses stats reflect that. But RG3 is a rare talent very accurate with the football both in and out of the pocket, has a cannon for a arm and great mobility. Not saying that he is bust proof but there is a good chance he turn out to be as good as advertised.
by Highspeed30 on Feb 9, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And RG3 isn't the same injury risk as Vick...
RG3 is light years ahead of Vick when it comes to passing when he came out. Just because he CAN run, ppl lump him in with “rushing QBs”
by temujin83 on Feb 9, 2012 10:25 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
And RG3 isn’t the same injury risk as Vick…
Please explain your reasoning. I gave my reasons for believing he will be an injury risk. I don’t understand why you’d just go “lol no hes not” and leave it at that.
RG3 is light years ahead of Vick when it comes to passing when he came out. Just because he CAN run, ppl lump him in with "rushing QBs"
RG3 is a rushing QB, and that is not debatable. He runs a spread offense that relies on his speed to create matchup problems. His system demands that he be a running QB.
Furthermore, the vick comparison was purely in terms of injury risk.
It is very much debatable and sort of asinine that you think that..
NO NO NO “rushing QB” has the passing numbers that he does coming out of college.
Therefore he will pass more in the NFL than Vick initially did, therefore his injury risk is lower.
I think you miss the point about the line being terrible
Until that is fixed, every quarterback will be at risk to injury at some level.
I think this point is valid–big Ben has a better chance of playing 16 games behind our lines then does Michael Vick…
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
or he will take less hits being more mobile
what if Shanny has him rolling out all the time? an elite athlete at QB makes his line better when the OC can consistently call designed rollouts and such.
I do agree 100% the question with Griffin is durability, at times this season he looked mildly concussed while playing after taking big hits. He absolutely has to be taught to protect himself more
The O-line is not terrible
Check out Tiller’s post.
When it comes to that subject, he has a bit of irrational exuberance
We are all guilty of it at some position or unit.
Sorry, but anyone who thinks that Brown is starter quality at right tackle also decorates with unicorns and rainbows
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
lol, yeah I think Tiller is much too kind to the OL
the run game did improve but the pass protection never was that good.
was this a joke?
The Line is terrible i don’t care how optimistic you want to be, they just don’t have the talent
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
O-line - It's not great, and can certainly be improved
but it is not terrible. It was decent in both run and pass blocking toward the end, and that was without Lichtensteiger. TW, Licht, Monty, Chester, Brown – backed up by Smith, Hurt and Locklear – is probably not too bad – maybe a low average league wide, and possibly pretty effective at running Shanahan’s ZBS. Adding one top quality tackle would be great, and make it a solid line (somewhat above average overall). I’d suggest that we need other areas much more – QB (natch), safety, WR.
that's pretty optimistic
for a line that allowed the 3rd most QB hits in the league. Believe it or not, Rex saved a ton of sacks.
The O-line had devastating injuries and losses last year -
Lichtensteiger, TW’s suspension, then having to play Smith, Hurt and Locklear. But those problems should make them stronger this year.
O-line - No joke, I think Tiller knows line play.
They were looking better late last year, even without Lichtensteiger. Depth has improved. TW, Licht, Monty, Chester, Brown – Shanahan might be able to live with them. The guards and center seem adequate – which would you replace? But one really good tackle would help a lot, make the O-line as a whole somewhat above average. That could come from FA. Generally, there are areas of much greater need than the O-line – namely, QB (natch!), safety, WR.
Tiller said the exact same thing last year
about the Offensive Line (and Jamaal Brown in particular) looking better at the end of the season. Then they came out and had another horrid season. After that i do not know what to make of Tiller’s assessment.
"Tiller said the same thing last year"
Yes. Football is not an exact science. It’s illluminating to read HH, and see the huge differences of opinion on almost everyone – players, coaches, etc.
I had a computer problem, somehow appeared to lose a message
re-wrote part of it, then discovered it had been posted. Sorry for the redundancy.
Most of RG3's runs was designed runs not just him scrambling and running
here is michael vick’s 2 years in college at Va tech vs Robert Griffin III 2010 season.
Vick’s college career stats 192/342 3,299 yds 56.1% 21tds 11 ints
Griffin III So season 2010 304/454 3,501yds 67.0% 22tds 8 ints
He threw more passes in 1 year than Vick did in 2 years and for more yards, and way more accurate so to say he is a running QB and comparing him to Vick is lazy and incorrect
by Highspeed30 on Feb 10, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
To be just
The VT Hokies philosophy is to run the ball first and foremost so therefore those comparisons can be distorted as far as lumping MV’s passing to RG3’s.
Different philosophies, different numbers…
Could it be fair to say RG3 to Brees in college, as far as his accuracy?
Drew Brees's college stats:
1997 43 19 1 232 0 .442
1998 569 361 20 3,983 39 .634
1999 554 337 12 3,909 25 .608
2000 512 309 12 3,668 26 .604
Whoops
That’s
Year Att. Comp. Int. Yds. TD Pct.
1997 43 19 1 232 0 .442
1998 569 361 20 3,983 39 .634
1999 554 337 12 3,909 25 .608
2000 512 309 12 3,668 26 .604
Totals 1,678 1,026 45 11,792 90 .611
Copy paste fail.
So Brees 2000:
309/512 3668 60.4% 26 tds, 12 ints……..then Griffin 2012
304/454 3501 67% 22tds 8 ints.
Erm……..draft him.
that was Griffin 2010 year.
he was 4000 yds passing 37 tds and 72.4 % completion this past season and like 6 ints
by Highspeed30 on Feb 12, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
you are way offbase in thinking RG3 is a running qb
that kid is one of the most natural passers you will ever see, throws just as good and accurate a ball as Andrew Luck. If RG3 was a “running qb” nobody would be so set on moving up to get him. Fact is he’s a superb passer who also has Vick type athleticism. Couple that with the fact he is smart and apparently doesnt really drink etc and you have the type of player worth trading picks to get.
Anybody can be a bust, even the sacred Andrew Luck may not work out…but as prospects go RG3 is as good as it gets.
by DCrez on Feb 10, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
he can sling the deep ball
but when the protection breaks down he gets happy feet. He also doesn’t get down on ruuns when he should and takes too many hits. He has also had a major injury already while in college. Plus he is barely 6’1
by davetrembling on Feb 10, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
he is 6'2" 220lbs
I wish people would STOP nitpicking on RG3’s height and weight we will all soon find out at the combine in a few weeks. Cause when he measures out 6’2" then it will be some other reason as to why he may not work out.
The dude has put together a hell of a resume’ in college both on and off the field stong arm, accurate 72% completion percentage and a 10.7 ypa(he was not dinking and dunking) 37 tds and 6 ints, and 10 rushing td’s but he is a passer first type of QB. he has everything that you look for in a QB prospect
First of all...
…congrats on getting into the Coast Guard. A highly underrated group, and really should be given more credit for how hard they work.
Second…Vick hasn’t been as much of a pure passer as Griffin, and was not nearly as talented with his arm. In 2 years, Vick threw all of 342 passes, and ran 212 times. In 2 years, Griffin has thrown 856 passes compared to 328 rushes. Yes, Griffin has run the ball more than Vick in their compared college careers, but Griffin’s pass/run ration is 2.61/1, whereas Vick’s is only 1.61/1.
End point – Griffin is much more polished and comfortable as a passer from the pocket at this point in his career than Vick ever was until he took over in Philly. Griffin will not run as often as Vick, and will not be as exposed to injury.
by The Agent C 83 on Feb 10, 2012 12:07 AM EST reply actions
My opinion comes from watching him play all season, not from scouts.
From that, I know how good of a player he is and that he is not a running QB. As of now, Griffin is more accurate than Vick ever has been. He is also a smart QB who carried his team to a 10-3 record. Obviously, there is no such thing as a 100% chance a player will succeed, but I believe it is high enough for Griffin to justify trade up at the #2 spot.
Skins rule
Guarantee you Shanny and staff absolutely drool watching RG3 film
EVERY gm in the league drools over RG3 film and none would be shocked if he ends up being a better player than Andrew Luck. Skins cannot be scared to make this move, there isnt someone like this in next year’s draft in fact there has NEVER been a qb prospect that passes and runs at such elite levels.
Two things
A) If he’s not a running QB, why does being an elite runner matter?
2) Griffin’s a better passer than any QB prospect ever? Really?
by tuckwell on Feb 10, 2012 1:22 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
A) see Rex Grossman getting run down from behind and having the ball stripped before he can get out of bounds essentially ending the game.
2) I think he’s saying Passing & Runs as in doing both at an elite level, There have been better passers and better runners, just not anyone who can do both as well as he does
He is just stating that he Passes and run at an elite level
the closest guy i think passed and ran to what RG3 displayed was Charlie Ward at Florida State, and i think he would have been a very good QB
Steve Young was not as polished a passer coming out of BYU
but later in the NFL when he took over with the 49ers he was a great passer with the elite ability to run.
Vic versus Griffin
I think you need to put your statistics into a larger picture…
Michael Vick played at Virginia Tech and against defenses of a much higher caliber than Robert Griffin.
I do think there are teams in the NFL that would do better with Griffin then we will. The Redskins play in a division with very good pass rushers. We have an undersized line that does not have enough talent to prevent pressure on our quarterback–the point is this, does Griffin have the frame to take the beating that he will be subjected to in Washington?
If management takes extensive steps to add significant talent to the line, then I think the chances of Griffin of obtaining his ceiling are better.
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
there are good FA olineman available every summer.
The Skins could make a big play for Carl Nicks and and Chris Myers, revamp and improve the oline overnight
And that is what needs to happen is you're going to give up the draft
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don't understand
we spent 20 years trying to build the team through big FA signings and trading out picks away, and after one good FA / Draft last year now you’re willing to return to that formula.
It just doesn’t make sense to me.
by TheDeepBall on Feb 10, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I just see this
going on in your head. 
"Women should have three breasts - two in front and one in the back for dancing." -Al Bundy
by HankMonahan on Feb 11, 2012 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
Congrats on the coast guard
Very nice post lots of facts to suport your stance. I dont think you can compare player size and skillset when assesing injury risk nobody plans get to hurt. but of coarse the more a qb runs the higher the risk. RG3 is a question mark as is Luck and if the redskins dont attempt to trade up then that would mean shanahan never viewed him as a franchise qb because if he does view him as such it makes no sense to wait and hope he falls into your lap and take the chance of missing out on him you go get your guy.
yes giving up 3-4 pics would hurt our depth possibly but just as you view rg3 as not a sure thing and throw out what the scouts say how can you then say but those first and second round picks will be sure things? who would you consider the deepest team right now? can they win without their qb?
Im sure tim tebow played some great defences in college so did vince young that doesnt affect how good he will be in the NFL. Nor does the type of offense a qb comes from in college show how well they will run an nfl offense look at all of the sure thing top USC qb’s
OL is important but doesnt need to be top of the NFL in order for you to be a playoff team or win a superbowl. when I look at your list of playoff OL’s I noticed that the teams with the LOWER pass protection ratings have athletic quaterbacks that can extend plays and make plays with their feet. The teams with less athletic qbs need more pass protection.
our D isnt elite but this is also not needed to make the playoffs if our offense is scoring and more importantly not turning the ball over. I do agree with your view on hall at this point the cant be relied on to shut someone down when the games on the line and is constently writing checks his hips cant cash. I would probally be happy with Claiborne over blackmon and reiff if we miss on rg3.
The last thing I’ll ask is would you have the same view if it was luck or barkley avaialable at #2? is your no trade up stance based purley on the fact that you have doubts about griffin? or do you truly believe that no matter who the qb available he cant be successfull without a strong suporting cast?
If you look at the teams that are in the play off hunt consistently they are strong on one side of the ball or the other. Through the mismanagement of the F/O over the last decade this F/O included we are neither. The top teams also have stable ownership that let a GM and HC build a team from the ground up with good YOUNG talent . We’ve had one strong draft from top to bottom since Dan has owned the team. Good teams have several before they ready to compete for a title on a consistent basis. With this draft class being deep in several positions that we need why not get as many of those needs met now before we start targeting single players and giving multiple picks to get them. If I were Shanny and RG3 fell to me at #6 unless I thought he was the second coming of Joe Montana I shop the pick . get another #2 and someones 2013 #1 depending on how far we drop back. If we trade up were going to have to bankrupt our cap to be competitive this year. If that happens sounds like bad Danny reared his ugly head again. And if so no matter what this team does Shanny will be on his way out for the new flavor of the month.
by future is now on Feb 10, 2012 4:13 AM EST up reply actions
You would shop the pick if RGIII fell to 6?
That my friend is bonkers! I dont care if you fall in the ‘dont trade up’ or ‘trade up’ camp, but if RGIII falls to 6, every Redskins fan would love to see him in a Redskins Jersey. We get the second best Quarterback in the draft without losing picks. Then we use our other picks to get additional talent. We trade back from #6 with RGIII there and everyone at Redskins Park will be fired immediately. Danny will run on the stage as their announcing the trade with a gallon of ice cream and pink slips!
Vincere est dulcis, sed obtinere est maior
by AnnuitCoeptis on Feb 10, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
You bet i would. Not because of his physical ability as a QB I believe he has all the ability to be a great NFL QB. I don’t believe with his style of play and his body structure he can stay healthy with the size and speed of defensive players at this level. he suffered a concussion at the end of the first half of the T Tech game and in the bowl game against Wash. he took a good hit at the goal line and came up whoosie . If he takes those hits from a NFL linebacker he won’t last long. Having said that lets say Seattle or Miami don’t get what they want in F/A at QB they offer an their 2&3 plus swap1’s or swap1’s and and give their 1 next year. I would have a hard time saying no. And if you did you would have put someone other than D. Hall to guard him so he doesn’t run out on stage .
by future is now on Feb 11, 2012 7:15 AM EST up reply actions
If it was Barkley, no.
If Luck was at #2, I might relent. I’d be sorely tempted. I guess then it would be about the cost.
Right now the deepest team is easily the Packers. And I think they proved that they can win without Rodgers when they beat the Lions (and they were sitting I believe 4 of their other starters as well)
Matt Flynn
480 yards, 6 TDs playing with backups vs. The Lions’ starters.
Pretty sure they’d be fine, fool.
I’m new to this blog but, what you wrote was one of the best post yet. Look forward to more insightful posts when you get back from basic training. God be with you
leaving on Monday for Coast Guard Basic Training? Good for you!
good luck and don’t let the head games get to you.
very good post and I'm also opposed to trading the farm for 1 guy
I still think it is wise to try and find out the cost for trading up but if it is as expensive as you make it seem then there’s no way I make the trade.
So we have gaping holes at QB, OL, and DB and our pro bowl MLB is old. And now I’m sad because it means we’ll have sucky QB play for yet another year and it means we’re at least 2-3 years from being competitive. I’m not so sure Snyder will be that patient – I give it a 50/50 chance that Shanahan is still here 2 years from now without a year with a winning record or a playoff appearance.
@afan4life
theres a good chance their wont be a QB,OL,DB ranked in the top 10 prospects left when we pick at 6. imo. this adds to the pressure or the willingness to trade up. unless you want to reach for a mid teens guy. i have seen some mocks having us take a projected 2nd round qb with our 6th pick of this draft…..not sure about you but i dont want that at all
by munson21502 on Feb 10, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I suspect that too
and I didn’t really explain myself very well. I’m thinking that if it rolls around to our pick at #6 and nobody wants to trade down then we’re really screwed because if we pass on the next best QB (whoever that is) then he won’t be there for our 2nd round pick and then we have no decent QB for next season. So is it really smarter to go for BPA at #6 and have no QB or to reach a little and fix the most broken piece of the puzzle?
I am 100% against drafting a WR at #6 because without a decent QB the WR won’t make much of a difference anyway.
If we can’t move back from #6 then I’d rather draft a CB or OL (which would probably also be a reach).
we are in a really bad spot
just hope everything works out for shanny and bruce they sure have their work cut out for em…
agreed
What’s bad is that the team was mismanaged for so long that Shanahan basically started with nothing – actually worse than nothing because the old roster combined with the bad attitudes and bad reputation were far worse than starting from scratch.
I hope Snyder has the patience to hold with Shanahan and Allen through the rebuilding. If he can then it sounds like next year would be the year to grab a QB but I’m not sure Shanahan can afford to wait that long.
You know, I'll probably get crucified for saying this
but if we had a top 5 or top 10 Offensive Line I would bet Rex wouldn’t look nearly as sucky as he did.
There, I said it. I mean, I would still want an upgrade but I bet more people would be willing to go one more year with him.
Interesting point of view
I have been against trading up not because I am so concerned about Griffin not being a good QB in the NFL, but what the cost will be to get him. I have heard as little as our 1st and 2nd this year, and a 3rd next year; to as much as 3 1st rd picks, 2nds, and 3rd.
If we get him, I think we need to have the ability to build a team around…and build it via the draft.
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
If Shanahan believes RGIII is a franchise QB
then he has an obligation to trade up for him. its that simple. it is time to get a franchise QB and build around his strengths.
by JeanBaptiste on Feb 10, 2012 9:48 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
If we don't have draft picks because we traded up to get that QB
Then exactly how will we build around him?
FA
Look getting Free Agents isn’t the worst thing in the world. They don’t have to be the best ones on the market they can be lower level ones for modest contracts.
We are taught from an early age how to deal with failure not success. (If at first you don't succeed try try again, if at first you succeed then what....) -Charlie Sheen
I come ready, when I came out the womb I was ready, tell them mama that's why you had me, you knew I was ready. -Moss
Dominating your opposition physically is great and all, but confounding them mentally is sooo much more fun.
2-15-DEN 44(14:36) (Shotgun) K.Moreno up the middle to DEN 47 for 3 yards (N.Suh). FUMBLES (N.Suh), RECOVERED by DET-N.Suh at DEN 47. N.Suh to DEN 47 for no gain (K.Moreno). FUMBLES (K.Moreno), recovered by DET-C.Houston at DEN 47. C.Houston to DEN 47 for no gain (O.Franklin). Denver challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) K.Moreno up the middle to DEN 49 for 5 yards (S.Tulloch).
We have tried that route
for the last decade. Philly tried it last season. It doesn’t work.
A team can only be built through the draft.
When you look to get all the big names it dont work
but when you get solid hungry players from FA it can work, especially if you trade up for RG3 cause you have plenty of room under the Cap to get some guys to plug some holes and hold the fort down for a couple of seasons. In year one you expect Griffin or any rookie to be in learning mode not really realistically looking to win the SB. In his second year you hope he take a huge step forward and compete to make playoffs and in year 3 make a real push for playoffs and more SB.
So if you get a few starters in FA and some depth with the rest of your draft picks in both 2012 and 2013 that can supplement you intil you have a full 7 pick draft in 2014. and you can always trade back to get additional picks in 2013 even without a 1st rd pick that you used in trade.
by Highspeed30 on Feb 11, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
We tried the FA route and failed but not because FA’s aren’t valuable but because we had a front office that thought they could buy a championship by getting big names…
Shanny looks to have learned alot during his year off regarding personell strategies. He went and studied the Patriots, Steelers and several other teams. Last years draft and FA is probably the best the Skins have had since Snyder took over. It’ll suck not having a 1st rounder next year if we trade up but we need a franchise QB and we got a good chance of getting one this year, time to take a chance.
Settling for crappy QB is not the solution either
Again all of these draft plans assume Shanahan has an indefinite amount of time for drafting his QB and that just isn’t true. Snyder is not going to settle for 4-5 years of losing seasons.
Great post man, good luck with Coast Guard Training
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
nice, uncontentious post. I agree with some, adamantly disagree with most...
1.
Forget for a moment what the scouts say
I will speak for only myself. My views of any prospect is based on what I see. Now, it is true, I don’t see every game/play of every player (I do work besides post on this site), so I realize I am not the expert. But, I still feel I have seen enough to formulate an opinion of the talent level of players, including RG3. His deep throws are some of the best I have ever seen.
I agree, scout can be wrong and can overhype players. It’s their job to create buzz and excitement. That is how a draft became a televised entity… Yet, their opinions are NOT what I base my opinions on.
2.
RG3 does not exactly have strong competition. The defenses that he played against this season, with the exception of Texas, are not very good.
This is where statistics obscure reality. From your list, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and TCU are strong programs who routinely recruit strongly, and have strong defenses. I don’t care if some program is #66. That is out of 212 programs in the college Division 1 system. Those teams were bigger programs than what RG3’s Baylor program is, and he brought his team above those, sometimes single-handedly.
3. In regards to the cost, (1) we don’t know yet what the cost will be. This is more of an issue after the facts. (2) The value of the trade cannot be determined until years later. What may appear to be overpaying could end up being fair, or it could be construed as overpaying. We just won’t know until later. It comes down to this simple fact – If someone is willing to pay it, then a trade is consumated. You and I have a philosophical difference on this strategy. What I think may be worth it, you do not.
4. I agree with you, in regards the importance of defense. The better the overall team, the better the teams chances to win a championship. What stands out to me, more than the playoff teams you listed, BUT the teams that did NOT make the playoffs, whose defensive points allowed ranking #5 – #10. Why did they not make the playoffs, having such a tough defense to score on? And, of course, most of the non-playoff teams were ranked lower (late teens / 20’s).
Does this mean our defense needs to improve. Of course. Yet, I would present this for consideration. Shanahan changed the entire defensive system when he came in, did nothing with it 1st yr., and only gave it due attention last year. The draft last year provided many pieces that will elevate this defense moving forward.
5. Finally, the OL. ABSOLUTELY!!!! This line needs some improvements. I believe that some FAs will be signed to start at some positions, along with some depth later in the draft. THE BETTER THE OL, THE BETTER THE QB PLAY. That should almost go without saying. But consider this. A mobile QB can overcome some deficiencies in the OL breakdowns. That is what makes guys like Luck and RG3 enticing, their ability to slide, move the pocket, or even run for 1st down.
I hope you enjoy the next 2 months, and when you come back, we will be here waiting for you. By then we will have a much clearer idea where this team is going.
I know that RG3 looks good out there
my question is simply, can he do what he’s doing now against the bigger, faster, smarter, stronger defenses in the NFL? And can he stay injury free while he’s at it?
I know that the cost isn’t yet set in stone. I was simply pointing out that it will likely cost much more than “2 firsts and a second”, as another recent post said it would. There is plenty of precedent that says it will cost more, not to mention the new rookie wage scale will tip the balance even further.
As far as the defense, it is year 3 and we need to get up to speed. By that, I mean back to a top 10 or at least top 15 Defense. We simply cannot do that with the current state of our secondary.
Myth: OL = success
Elite QB’s often make suspect lines look a lot better than they actually are. The Saints olinemen maybe talented but Brees with his quick release and pocket awareness covers up many of the lines mistakes. It’s a quarterback league and if you don’t have one team success shrinks dramatically. Of course to can still win but no team fears you. A perfect example is the Jets. Great D, super talented Oline, but nobody ever thinks their Super Bowl bound with Sanchez leading the charge.
yes the Jets and 49ers are great examples of how to not win a SB with a good OLs but poor QB
I’m amazed that enither of those teams are trying to find other options at QB.
If not for two mistakes by their backup punt returner
the 49ers would have been in the Super Bowl this year. I would call that a freak accident.
that doesn't change the fact that Alex Smith is a poor starting QB
he’d be a good backup but he shouldn’t be a starter in the NFL. An upgrade at QB and the 49ers would be an unstoppable juggernaut.
That's just it
they already were a juggernaut this season. No, they didn’t win pretty, but they had a 13-3 regular season record and made it to the championship, where they only lost on a fluke.
With a bad QB.
The 49ers are the perfect example of a complete team trumping QB play.
he played the best he has ever played this year
trust me if he played like he did before the 49ers wouldnt have got anywhere
yes it was his best year and he was barely average
replace him with a great QB and a SB appearance is in the bag.
I don't think Deepball is suggesting we keep Grossman for a SB run, when he talks about the O-line
just that the line does matter, and quite a bit.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
good post deep, good luck in the coast guard!
i agree with some of your points…. but i cant help but feel we need to take this chance.. we have had 3 10 lose seasons in the last 4 or 5 years… if we have another 1 in the next 2 years you can kiss everything good bye. we will get a new coaching crew. and most likley another coach who will want their type of guys on this team. i think a move to gamble on a elite qb prospect is now. while we are down here having the 10 loss seasons. not when we get more depth and have a FA qb leading our team to 8-8,9-7 records earning their trust then all of a sudden trade the farm to move up to get a good qb prospect. this kills the locker room imo. i think we can upgrade this team even with a trade up now because we have alot of cap space.. i truely think that our team is better then our record and i am ready to take a chance to get this franchise back to its glory days. we will never have the hogs back… FA and the cap has killed that dream. and is why you see so many coaches getting in the pink slip every 2 to 4 years. even teams that have great drafts cant win for long withourt having that franchise qb. because those good young players become FA and the really good 1s must be paid or they leave if they know they have no chance at glory…
by munson21502 on Feb 10, 2012 12:35 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yes
I can agree with this, our team is better than their record. We have to take a chance now, otherwise we are gonna be stuck at 8-8 or 9-8. But I say only take the chance IF the staff likes RG3, obviously. But I think Shanny likes him, just an opinion.
I don't agree with you on every point
but that was a great post. Thanks for putting in all that effort; I really enjoyed reading it.
One point:
Griffin is not 6’2". He’s closer to 6’0". Factor this accordingly
by tuckwell on Feb 10, 2012 1:31 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Where did you get this from?
I will bet you that when he is measured at the combine, he is closer to 6’2" than 6"0"
Doubtful.
His height has been reported anywhere between 5-10 and 6-4. He’s somewhere in between I’m sure. Colleges tend to over exaggerate measurables, do when I read a QB is 6-4, I assume he’s 6-2.5 ish. People I trust have seen Griffin in person and say between 5-11 and 6-1. Combine will show for sure.
by tuckwell on Feb 10, 2012 2:04 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
So what you're saying he's Drew Brees-ish in height
So long as he’s Drew Brees-ish in performance, I’m cool.
by The Agent C 83 on Feb 10, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but how many cards in the deck do you want to stack against him?
Sub-height QBs don’t succeed very often at all in today’s NFL. Brees is an anomaly. With NFL offensive linemen being between 6’3" and 6’8" you have a very real worry about passing lanes from a guy who is anywhere from a couple inches to half a foot shorter than they are. New Orleans does a very good job providing lanes for Brees, but this is another skill a sub-par offensive line won’t be able to pick up quickly, and a rookie QB adjusting to the speed of the league will struggle with as well.
You don’t plan on a guy being Drew Brees-ish in performance, that happens when skill and preparation meet a big healthy dose of luck. Or Luck, as it were :)
How badly do you want to stack the deck against him?
Sub-height QBs don’t succeed very often at all in today’s NFL. Brees is an anomaly. With NFL offensive linemen being between 6’3" and 6’8" you have a very real worry about passing lanes from a guy who is anywhere from a couple inches to half a foot shorter than they are. New Orleans does a very good job providing lanes for Brees, but this is another skill a sub-par offensive line won’t be able to pick up quickly, and a rookie QB adjusting to the speed of the league will struggle with as well.
You don’t plan on a guy being Drew Brees-ish in performance, that happens when skill and preparation meet a big healthy dose of luck. Or Luck, as it were :)
he is 6'2"
Aaron Rodgers 6’2", Steve Young 6’2", Brett Farve 6’2", Tony Romo 6’2", and Joe Montana 6’2"
I guess the deck is stacked against all of these guys too cause they too short to play QB.
And I don't think that 6'2" is legit from what I've seen and heard.
Doesn’t really matter though. His height isn’t my main concern with him. My main concern is that one player isn’t worth four other starters on a team with as many holes and depth issues as we have.
and I always love how the "anomalies" are O.K. for their arguments...
but as soon as we bring up Brady as the anomaly for finding a lower round franchise QB, it is disregarded. Good job, Tuck. I guess it’s always a one way street for you.
... the hell?
I’ve never argued that, not once. Nice try.
Its because Brady is NOT an anomoly
He was graded as a 2nd rd. talent by the majority of the draft analysts. He was just another player that fell in the draft. It happens every year to players.
by terpsallday on Feb 12, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
you are dreaming...
wake up. Or, didn’t you see the ESPN special on Brady. NO ONE thought anything of him, except himself, which, in the end, was the most important element.
HE IS THE POSTER CHILD ANAMOLY FOR LATE ROUND GREAT QBS!
Quit lumping everyone together, then.
I absolutely hate groupthink.
Yes, good argument and post
but your myths are not myths at all, except maybe to you. However, that is a nice way to present pros and cons. I am torn between (1) going for Peyton Manning and a second tier guy (Tannehill, Foles, Weeden or somebody else Shanahan likes) or (2) trading up for RG3 or (3) taking somebody like Flynn or Orton plus a second tier guy. One big relevant factor, which I don’t know, is how Shanahan rates (i.e., how they would fit with the team) Manning, RG3, Orton, Flynn, Tannehill, etc. If we can get RG3 for two ones and a two, the price doesn’t strike me as too high. You stress the uncertainties with RG3, but the same uncertainties and risk of failure applies to the picks we trade away – just think of all the busts taken with similar picks. On the other hand, giving up a lot to get RG3 probably precludes getting a second QB (although they could go for Orton (presumably rather cheap) and still gun for RG3). Trading picks for RG3 still leaves us with a lot of picks, and free agency. On substance, what I’ve read about RG3 suggests that he’s not just a running QB – he is a terrific passer. I also don’t agree with the comments on D’Angelo Hall – he is a very solid CB, so it makes no sense to me to forego RG3 in order to take a CB with the #6 pick. By the way, the Manning/Flynn decision will come before the draft, so we will have a much clearer picture of our needs before then. We could end up taking RG3 at #6 (if, for example, Cleveland takes Flynn and Miami takes Manning).
if cleveland gets flynn and miami gets manning I would be extatic
That means we could probably stand pat or move up for much much cheaper
The ranking of picks. A 2013 1st round pick is worth the equivalent of a 2012 2nd round pick. With evaluation a rd 1 pick
plus 2012 rd 2 pick and a 2013 1st rd pick is comparable to a 1st rd pick and 2 2nd rd picks. This is paraphrased from the mocking the draft site.
by Jefferson1935 on Feb 11, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Somehow I missed this one
Here’s the thing with those other picks we trade away. If RG3 busts, then we’ve lost all those picks, and still didn’t fill any holes. If one of those picks busts, we still filled some holes with the other picks.
I never said to forgo RG3 with the #6 pick. If he is there at 6 then we should definitely take him. However, we do need a CB. Hall is consistently in the bottom 5 or 10 in the league in QB rating and completion percentage allowed.
by TheDeepBall on Feb 11, 2012 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Everyone keeps making comments on RG3s running, his oline, his defense competition, yada yada yada...
Does anyone remember the interesting similarities of Shanahan’s draft picks last year? Intangibles, leadership at the Collegiate level, smart guys? RG3 is so much more than his physical talents. He’s obviously smarter than the majority of us on this blog, check out his academic record if you need a reference. Discipline? check out who is parents are. Stop trying to make him a Mike Vick or any other QB in the NFL or the NCAA.
You ever seen a lion limber up before taking out a gazelle?
Yeah I really don't like the Vick comparison, but I left that alone
Others picked that topic to death already for me. If he was remotely anything like Vick, I would say hell no to RG3, but I don’t think that’s the case.
+1
Shanny values intangibles the exception so far being Trent Williams who had some work ethic problems. However because he was in a position of huge need with incredible athletic ability and a huge ceiling Shanny nabbed him at 4.
So no we got RGIII, Huge positon of need, Check, Intangibles, Check x III, Incredible athletic ability and huge ceiling, Double Check.
I think it’s a sure thing we’re going after him.
we did not move up to get Williams,
Big difference.
Shanahan has only drafted one quarterback in the first round ever, Jay Cutler. He did have to trade up to number 17 to get him, but it only cost him one third round pick.
So there is some history that points to the possibility BUT, it is only happened once as opposed to four times for a free agent quarterback.
It really is going to come down to how many draft picks we have to give up, I can assure you that Bruce and Mike have a limit and is not "all in".
Free agency will do a lot to set the price for a trade up scenario, until then no one has a clue which is why I will not even speculate as to the cost until some of the free-agent quarterbacks find a home.
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Agree FA will be the most telling for the price cause we'll see who's in the game for him
But not moving up for Williams isn’t a valid point, all I was pointing out is how much it seems that Shanahan values Leaders with a high motor over athletic ability. Trent being the exception to the rule.
I tried to say why I thought he made that exception since all of his other picks have been Captains and guys known for working hard, over guys known for being athletic.
And then I said that because I think RGIII has all of the attributes of the Majority of the guys Shanny has drafted since getting here as well as the high ceiling/athletic ability and the high positional need. That it would make sense that Shanahan does something big and out of character such as trading away several valuable picks to go get him.
I maybe wrong like you said we’ll have a much clearer picture after FA
My fault
I probably read more into what you said then you actually wrote.
I made the jump of comparing Trent Williams to Jay Cutler–not because of the trade up scenario, but because of the character issues that were ignored in drafting those players.
I agree with you that Shanahan seems to prefer hard workers and high character players but, he seems to make frightful exceptions in the first round (almost looks like he panics and reaches)
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Feb 10, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
I did not intend to say RG3 = Mike Vick
I was just pointing out that their size and build are similar, and Vick has only started a full season once in his career.
I view trading up as a wash when coupled with last year's draft
Over a two year period, we will have traded back a few times, and traded up a few times. We had a quantity draft last year to add a lot of depth. If Shanahan decides to trade up in this draft, I’m not too concerned for the lost picks. We have decent cap space, and can still address 3 or 4 needs through free agency.
Bottom line, we don’t know who Shanny values and who he wants to be the starting QB for this team. So we’re all just killing time until a month from now when the pieces start falling into place. I just hope they have a plan A and a plan B, at a minimum, because I don’t want John Beck sniffing the field if it can be helped.
And I do appreciate the time you took to write this. Good luck with your Coast Guard training.
The problem here is
we didn’t have a 3rd or 4th round pick last year, We had to trade back just to recoup those picks.
Ah, I forgot that part, my bad
So, we’re probably still at a bit of a pick deficit if we do trade up this year. I just figure, if we trade up for RG3, that is tantamount to Mike saying “I don’t like any of the options in free agency”. And I can see how he might think that.
1. Manning isn’t coming here to face his brother two times a year. People need to get this out of their heads.
2. Flynn had one performance behind one of the most explosive offenses in the league. He’s going to cost more than he is worth based on the free agent QB market.
3. Orton is a drunk and perhaps only marginally better than Rex.
4. Even though Brees is a free agent, no way in hell he isn’t resigned by NO.
Yeah, I get that
my problem is that there are so many holes to fill that leaving ourselves with a pick deficit by trading up is probably the worst thing we could do.
great post
people seem to forget no quarterback in nfl history has won a super bowl from outside the pocket. Teams will take away all those deep passes in the nfl. You have to be methodical. Also the best teams in the league are the ones who flood their offensive and defensive lines with talent each and every year.
Good Luck in the Coast Guard DB
We are lucky to have men like you looking out for us. For everyone else, a short story about our friend “The Deep Ball”. Recently me & another guy got into it here on HH. The other dude said some things that were way out of line, I told him to get fucked, but DB (& a couple of others) had my back. Even tho DB & I rarely agree on anything, he stepped up, took a stand & showed the character & integrity that we can all relate to. I am not at all surprised that you have been accepted into a prestigious organization such as the Coast Guard & I have no doubt that you will excel. (I’d still give up an awful lot for Griffin tho…lol)
Drafting the Top QBs Rarely Works Out
Most fans assume that if their team can draft one of the top two QBs coming out of college, they have a great change of landing a “franchise QB” and their team’s offense will improve both significantly and rapidly. The truth is the chances are pitifully small that any of these things happen.
The only way to significantly improve your offense is by putting great players around a quarterback. Can this be proven?
Objectively review the table below.
Review of First 5 Seasons of QBs Drafted #1 and #2 [Ten Most Recent Drafts]
’11 1st QB: Newton – Year 1: 16 starts 84 rating
’11 2nd QB: Locker – Year 1: 0 starts.
’10 1st QB: Bradford – Year 1: 16 starts 76 rating; Year 2: 16 starts 70 rating
’10 2nd QB: Tebow – Yr 1: 3 starts 82 rating; Yr 2: 11 starts 73 rating
’09 1st QB: Stafford – Yr 1: 10 starts 61 rating; Yr 2: 3 starts 91 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 97 rating.
’09 2nd QB: Sanchez – Yr 1: 15 starts 63 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 75 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 78 rating.
’08 1st QB: Ryan – Yr 1: 16 starts 88 rating; Yr 2: 14 starts 81 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 91 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 92 rating.
’08 2nd QB: Flacco – Yr 1: 16 starts 80 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 89 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 81 rating.
’07 1st QB: Russell – Yr 1: 1 start 56 rating; Yr 2: 15 starts 77 rating; Yr 3: 9 starts 50 rating; Yr 4: 9 starts 50 rating; Yr 5: gone.
’07 2nd QB: Quinn – Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 3 starts 67 rating; Yr 3: 9 starts 67 rating; Yr 4: 0 start; Yr 5: gone.
’06 1st QB: Young – Yr 1: 13 starts 67 rating; Yr 2: 15 starts 71 rating; Yr 3: 1 start 65 rating; Yr 4: 10 starts 83 rating; Yr 5: 8 starts 99 rating; Yr 6: gone.
’06 2nd QB: Leinart – Yr 1: 11 starts 74 rating; Yr 2: 5 starts 62 rating; Yr 3: 0 starts; Yr 4: 1 start 65 rating; Yr 5: gone.
’05 1st QB: Alex Smith – Yr 1: 7 starts 41 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 75 rating; Yr 3: 7 starts 57 rating; Yr 4: 0 starts; Yr 5: 10 starts 81 rating.
’05 2nd QB: Rodgers – Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 0 starts; Yr 3: 0 starts; Yr 4: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts103 rating; Yr 6: 15 starts 101 rating; Yr 7: 15 starts 122 rating.
’04 1st QB: Manning – Yr 1: 7 starts 55 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 76 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 74 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts 85 rating.
’04 2nd QB: Rivers – Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 0 starts; Yr 3: 16 starts 92 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 82 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts105 rating.
’03 1st QB: Palmer – Yr 1: 13 starts 77 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 101 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 87 rating; Yr 5: 4 starts 69 rating.
’03 2nd QB: Leftwich – Yr 1: 13 starts 73 rating; Yr 2: 14 starts 82 rating; Yr 3: 11 starts 89 rating; Yr 4: 6 starts 79 rating; Yr 5: 2 starts 59 rating.
’02 1st QB: Carr – Yr 1: 16 starts 63 rating; Yr 2: 11 starts 69 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 83 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts 82 rating.
’02 2nd QB: Harrington – Yr 1: 12 starts 60 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 64 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 4: 11 starts 72 rating; Yr 5: 11 starts 68 rating.
comments?
now go back and look at the guys drafted later - they are much, much worse
the truth is that drafting a franchise QB has a very, very low probability of success no matter where they are drafted but it is even less likely to pan out with later round draft picks. I went through the same exercise you did but I included every QB drafted for the past 30 years and that’s how I found out the ugly truth (drafting QBs is a huge gamble).
Re: Look at the guys drafted later - they are much, much worse
Great point! Here’s something else I find interesting:
Not one of this season’s top three QBs with the highest ratings, Rodgers, Brees or Brady, were drafted at the very top of the draft. Rodgers was the 24th pick overall, Brees was the 32nd overall, and Brady was taken in the 6th round.
Extending this review to this season’s TOP TEN QBs with the highest ratings reveals three more relatively unheralded college QBs, namely undrafted Tony Romo, 3rd round pick Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger, who was the 3rd QB taken off the board that year.
Here’s my independent source for this season’s QB ratings: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/leaders.htm
So not only were this season’s three highest rated passers relatively unheralded coming out of college, but the majority of the top ten with the highest ratings were relatively unheralded coming out of college.
One piece of research I’d like to perform is to look at rookie through 5th year QBs, measuring their performances against QBs drafted lower. I’d then like to compare how much longer the first group is given to prove themselves. I have a hunch coaches’ egos and expectations, as opposed to hard data, cause them to give their high draft picks far more games/ seasons to develop than guys drafted later or acquired through free agency.
HOFer, drafted first overall, QB Terry Bradshaw’s first 5 seasons’ QB ratings: 30, 60, 64, 55, 55. (5 season totals: 48 passing TDs versus 99 picks and fumbles).
HOFer, drafted first overall, QB John Elway’s first ten seasons combined he threw for 158 TDs versus 248 interceptions and fumbles. Even in Elway’s tenth season, as an experienced veteran, John threw for only 10 TDs while turning it over on fumbles and picks 29 times.
This season’s Super Bowl winning QB, Eli Manning, drafted first overall, first 4 seasons’ QB ratings: 55, 76, 77, 74. (4 season totals: 77 passing TDs versus 99 picks and fumbles)
by Belly Kilmer on Feb 22, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
oh I agree
a lot of QBs get picked early based on hype or based on what college they’re coming from. But the success rate of 3rd, 4th and 5th round QBs is down right awful.
I truly believe the right approach is to draft a QB frequently (every year or every other year) (not neccessarily with a 1st round pick) until you get a guy who pans out. And even then you have to train him for 1-2 years before throwing him to the wolves.
Re: Draft a QB frequently and train him for 1-2 years before throwing him to the wolves
Who are you, anyway? Bill Belichick?
If so, I noticed you’ve never selected a QB above the 3rd rd of the draft, 5 of the 8 QBs you’ve taken were in the 6th or 7th rounds or undrafted, and Brady, of course, you picked up in the 6th. I watched you pick up Matt Cassell in the 7th. And speaking of 7, I noticed you took the 7th Qback in this past year’s draft, 6’7" 260 pound Ryan Mallett to learn alongside your undrafted backup, Brian Hoyer.
Your approach to drafting and developing QBs surprised me, in light of the fact you’d been the D coordinator on teams QB’d by the 1st pick of the draft, Bernie Kosar, the 7th pick of the draft, Phil Simms and the first pick of the draft, Vinny Testaverde.
What compelled you to stay away from top pick QBs when you were in charge, Bill? Was it watching Testaverde perform at a QB rating of 71 with the Browns, then way up to 102 with the Jets, then right back down to 78 the very next season with the Jets?
Fan4Life, If you’re not Belichick, it sure seems to me you think a lot like him, or at least when it comes to successful QBs you do.
Belichick: "There is an old saying about the strength of the wolf is the pack, and I think there is a lot of truth to that."
I would love to trade jobs with Bill Belichick but I am not him
Maybe I do think like him, I have no way of really knowing what he’s thinking. Maybe he thinks he can afford to play around so long as he has a HOF QB. We don’t really know what he’d do if Brady were to suffer a career ending injury. Would he use a 1st round pick on a QB? There’s no way to know.
What I do know is that this team is not going to improve with the QBs we have so we have to do something. Does Shanahan have the time (he has 3 years left on his contract) to try and develop late round prospects? Maybe if Snyder isn’t already to fire him after 2 straight losing seasons (Snyder didn’t even give Schottenheimer a full season).
I’d like to see 3 different QBs this year as I have zero belief that what we’ve got will work and how much worse can we get than 5-11?
A+
Excellent article. Well researched and thought out. Very well done.
QBs as Saviors Have as Much Chance as Danny as Savior
The season prior to Brady becoming a starter Belichick, focused on the O line, used his first and third round picks on O linemen. Brady’s first season as starter he threw 18 TDs while turning it over 24 times on picks and fumbles. Belichick stayed with Tom and again focused on the O line, using his second and fourth round picks on O tackles.
Tom’s second season as starter he threw 28 TDs while turning it over 25 times on picks and fumbles. That season the team finished 9-7. Belichick stayed with Brady.
Tom’s third season he had Pro Bowlers Light, Woody and Koppen on the O line. Tom tossed 23 TDs versus 25 turnovers but the team, ranked first in D, kicked ass. Belichick stayed with Brady.
So, was Brady’s development into an elite QB primarily a case of Belichick ignoring Tom’s pedestrian TD to turnover ratio over the course of multiple seasons, while allowing Brady to develop, aided tremendously by NE’s dominant defenses, while Belichick built a very good O line around Tom, not to mention good receivers? Or was Brady’s success mostly just Tom’s natural ability?
How would Tom’s career have turned out had he been drafted by a team with a whole lot less talent around him? How would Tom have done on last season’s Redskins team?
The Redskins’ O line gave up 41 sacks and an astounding 108 hits on the QB. There were only two teams in the entire league that allowed their QB to be hit more.
As if that wasn’t putrid enough for the Redskins’ O line, here’s game-long running yard TOTALS for half the games this season:
26 (yes, that’s 26 yard the ENTIRE game), 42, 52, 60, 61, 65, 74.
Put your three new QBs behind our starting O line at season end, namely Hurt, Brown, Chester, Montgomery and Smith. Give these QBs receivers Gaffney, Stallworth, Austin, Armstrong, David Anderson and an injured Santana, just like last year’s O. I can tell your with certainty your three new QBs aren’t going to drive this offense up and down the field.
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