Whereas we have mostly just looked at the Redskins needs and best fits at the QB position, I am going to breakdown the market as a whole headed into the offseason. First lets take a look at the teams the will be in the market for quarterback. Only 6 teams are really in the market: Indianapolis, Washington, Miami and Seattle are the truly desperate. Cleveland and Arizona have projects in McCoy and Kolb that they could commit to for at least one more year, but still could look to improve the position, and will at the very least look to improve depth there.
Currrent starter: Curtis Painter.
It seems that they are almost 100% committed to Luck, which means they are almost 100% committed to releasing Manning. This equates to a net gain of 0 on the QB market: Luck (-1), Manning (+1).
Prediction: Andrew Luck at #1 overall in 2012 Draft.
Current Starter: Tavaris Jackson
Seattle should be looking to add a new starting QB, but Pete Carrol has the luxury of waiting a year for someone like Matt Barkley, because Seattle brass knows they are in the rebuilding process. They would love to have Griffin, but simply don't have the ammunition to compete with Cleveland, Washington or Miami. Besides, they should be more than happy to get Tannehill at #12, especially considering they would probably have to give up every meaningful pick they have in this years draft as well as several from next years, considering the competition from Washington, Cleveland and Miami. Seattle can't afford to give up that much, and I doubt they will.
Prediction: Ryan Tannehill at #12 in 2012 Draft.
Alternate prediction: Tavaris Jackson for 1 more year.
Current Starter: Matt Moore
Chad Henne is a FA and all signs point to him not returning to Miami. However, if you want to read the signs of what has happened thus far in the offseason, all signs point to Matt Flynn signing a big deal with Miami. If you are a gambling man, reading into the addition of Green Bay OC and the vacancy at the QB position would mean you are putting big money on Flynn taking his talents to South Beach.
Prediction: Matt Flynn signs a multi-year deal.
Current Starter: Colt McCoy
From what I have read, it seems the Browns are little bit on the fence about McCoy, but they like him and seem to be willing to commit at least one more year to him. So if the cost of moving up is two first round picks plus an additional first round pick next year and/or second round this year, do the economics of this deal really make sense for the Browns. I don't think so. It seems like the media is loving mocking Griffin to the Browns, but from what I've read about the Browns management, it seems they aren't that interested in trading up and are more interested in adding a weapon for McCoy than another QB. Of course this could all be a smokescreen. Call it a hunch, but I think Washington, Miami and Arizona are more likely landing sports for Griffin than Cleveland. They own picks #4 and #22, so if Griffin doesn't fall in their laps at #4, I think they are happy to take Weeden at #22 as competition/insurance/depth at the QB position.
Prediction: Brandon Weeden at #22 in 2012 Draft. (Blackmon at #6)
Current Starter: Kevin Kolb
Of all the teams in the market, Arizona has clearly has the best current starter at the position. Considering the traded a second rounder for him just last year, are they really willing to sacrifice more picks to move up for another QB? Maybe, sure, but much like Seattle they will have to give up close to their entire draft to move up to #2 considering the competition. Also, to this point I have not project Manning anywhere, so his only realistic landing spots at this point are Washington and Arizona. Manning makes more sense here, because their offense is closer to being elite with Larry Fitzgerald already on board. If they sign Manning, they got also bring aboard Reggie Wayne and/or Garcon and have all their draft picks available to address the offensive line. Arizona has always been a destination where NFL greats have gone to die (Emmitt Smith, Gary Clark).
Prediction: Peyton Manning on a mid-long term deal.
Current Starter: Rex Grossman
The key here is that free agency occurs before the draft. Manning and Flynn will take 2 of the 6 teams out of the QB market and Indianapolis picks first, so that leaves only 3 teams willing to bid for that #2 pick. Assuming Arizona and Miami are the landing spots for Manning and Flynn, that leaves Washington only with Seattle and Cleveland to compete with. While the asking price for Griffin seems astronomical now, it should actually be a lot more reasonable as the buyer end of the market shrivels. Cleveland is in the drivers seat and they could have him if they want, but I don't think they will give up both their first rounders to get him and with McCoy on board with all the draft picks on hand, they could build an awesome group around him by hanging on to all their picks.
Prediction: Robert Griffin III at #2 overall in 2012 Draft. The Redskins trade 1st round pick in 2012, 1st round pick in 2013, 2rd round pick in 2012, 4th round pick in 2012, 4th round pick in 2013.
Note: This is the most we will have to give up for #2 overall with the thinner than expected market come draft day and Shanahan and Allen's negotiating skills. I ultimately think this package is more than Cleveland and have more to give than Seattle. Also, If St. Louis trades down in further than 6th, they won't have any chance of landing Kalil, Blackmon or Reiff, who I believe they have ranked 1-2-3 right now. If Cleveland's best offer is much less than my proposed offer above, we might get away with replacing that 2nd rounder with a 3rd rounder or giving up less in 2013. Ultimately I think we will get Griffin and get him at a cheaper cost than the media is projecting right now.