NFC Playoff Quarterbacks and Why we need to trade up for Luck...
by preppiejack on Jan 4, 2012 10:03 PM EST
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PrintBelow are the 6 NFC playoff teams this year, and where their quarterbacks were drafted. 5 of the 6 were drafted in the first round (only Drew Brees was in the second round, and he was the first pick in that round). 4 of the 6 were the top overall QB drafted (and in Aaron Rodgers case, the QB selected ahead of him, Alex Smith, is already on this list). And 3 of the 6 were drafted 1st overall.
Packers (Aaron Rodgers) - 24th pick of the 1st round --- (2nd QB overall of the 2005 draft)
49ers (Alex Smith) - 1st pick of the 1st round --- (1st QB overall of the 2005 draft)
Saints (Drew Brees) - 1st pick of the 2nd round --- (2nd QB overall of the 2001 draft)
Giants (Eli Manning) - 1st pick of the 1st round (1st QB overall of the 2004 draft)
Falcons (Matt Ryan) - 3rd pick of the 1st round (1st QB overall of the 2008 draft)
Lions (Matt Stafford) – 1st pick of the 1st round (1st QB overall of the 2009 draft)
The NFC is so competitive, and great QB play is essential. Andrew Luck will be a stellar franchise QB, something the Redskins haven't had in decades, and I would be willing to mortgage the future for him. I think the closest comparison to our situation with these 6 QB's is Eli Manning, who was traded to the Giants for the 4th overall pick in the 1st round, a 3rd round pick, and a 1st rounder the following year. I'm sure that Andrew Luck will cost more for the Redskins to move up from the 6th overall pick, but I'd be willing to do that. In the end, the Giants trade worked out well for them- they got a Super Bowl win, numerous playoff appearances, and a perennial pro-bowler.
I am normally a proponent of building through the draft and upgrading the offensive line, but with cap room to work free agency this year I think we can address some of our holes, and it is becoming increasingly obvious to me that QB play has killed us for the last decade.
Trade up for Luck!!! I'd give a 2012 1st rounder (#6 overall), 2013 1st rounder, and a 2014 first rounder. If the Colts didn't want picks that far out, I'd give them a 2012 1st rounder (#6 overall), a 2012 2nd rounder, and a 2013 1st rounder.
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FYI - Every QB that won their division was the best QB in their division.
Houston = Schaub got them there and was the best QB in the division this year.
Redskins @RGIII - 2012
You see the light......
There isn’t anything in the national football league more valuable than an all pro franchise qb…..except for us fans. Like I said in a recent post, when you get that "guy"at qb everything else seems to fall in place. The offensive line starts with improving, receivers reach their potential and become legitimate threats, runningbacks are more productive, and the defense starts making plays. A franchise qb is paramount to a franchise.
by mr.snyderhireme on Jan 4, 2012 10:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Where do you suppose
we get enough firepower to make that kind of trade, especially if the colts where planning on drafting him.
Yeah, seems like it makes a lot more sense, and a lot cheaper, to gun for RG3
Tony Dungy says he would actually opt for Griffin over Luck. The problem is, the main competition for RG3 is Cleveland, who draft at #4. We may not know if they are going to take RG3 (we might, if, say, they trade for Flynn or Manning or any top QB). And strange things could happen, like Indy not taking Luck, and trading their pick. That would probably make it easier (but not a certainty) to get RG3 – Cleveland could just sit back and take RG3, not chase Luck. By the way, we play Cleveland this year.
It was reported today that the Browns are not committed to mcoy
by mr.snyderhireme on Jan 5, 2012 12:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
schumer refused to name him his starter
http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5699/colt-mccoy
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I must be one of the few who think Luck is vastly overrated
I haven’t seen anything that separates him that much from Barkley or Griffin or even Weeden. I also don’t think he displays the leadership that everyone talks about and think he looks like a troll (I guess that’s a side note). Maybe it’s my bias for being at USC but I think Luck is a fatter less athletic, less intelligent Stafford.
I would prefer Griffin by far.
I see your argument
But I 100% disagree with you. You say Luck is a fatter, less athletic, less intelligent Stafford. When was the last time you saw a fat, unathletic QB do this in a game?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4_w-puInqY Stafford NEVER ran at Goerigia. I know this because I’m an Alabama fan and I watch alot of SEC football.
You also say he is less intelligent than Matt Stafford Stafford of all people? There is a big difference in academically qualifying for Stanford, and qualifying for any SEC school. (ALOT easier to get into an SEC school, and Luck has already graduated). Name the last QB to call his own plays in college?……. Don’t worry I’ll wait. You can’t name one can you? I don’t think anyone here can name one, including me. Peyton Manning didn’t even call his own plays in college.
I know that’s your opinion of Luck and I respect that being your opinion, but c’mon man!!
Touche
Ok I’ll admit I was wrong about that but its still a VERY small % that can call their own plays
Yea I know...
just throwing it out there. I’ve been advocating keeping all of our picks for the past 5 years and it’s not worth it to trade them…I feel differently this offseason for Luck, and only Luck.
Steven Garcia called his own plays at SC
but they were against what Spurrier was trying to call and involved QB draws to himself 75% of the time…
(im making all this up as i go)
Hail to 'Em
by SkinsaneAsylum on Jan 6, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, Preppie...
Nice post. I especially like that you restricted the teams to the NFC, which is our conference, the teams we will have to beat to get in the playoffs or, down the road, the SB. I am not sure why some have difficulty seeing it. With rule changes favoring offense, and especially passing games, franchise guys are a premium. Sadly, we don’t have one. And there a many choices to pick from, most recently Flynn. All choices have a projection attached, what we THINK they will become. When that is considered, who knows (RG3 could bust, none of the lower guys develop, Flynn could flame out on the launching pad).
Luck is the only sure thing. The highest rated prospect in the last 20 yrs, over Eli Manning, Smith, Rodgers and all the busts – Jamarcus….) All the teams only get a chance at a player like this in a generation. Most already have their QB positions settled. We do not. This is precisely why I have promoted this idea for months. He is worth trading future draft picks because he solidifies the position for 15 yrs (barring injuries, which cannot be factored) and is a leader of the team, carrying the team on his shoulders to the playoffs and hopefully the SB.
so the fact that AFC teams find their 'franchise guys' in a different way they should be ignored b/c it isn't our competition
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Roethlisberger, Tebow, and Flacco were all 1st rounders as well. Dalton was a 2nd rounder. Brady is an enigma. And if Peyton Manning weren’t hurt, he’d be the last QB- instead it is Schaub (3rd rounder).
i don't know about that
If Manning wasn’t injured and Schaub wasn’t injured, who knows who would have won that division or even if the Colts would have made the playoffs. If Schaub isn’t injured the Texans might have 13 wins right now.
Also your overall point seemed to be drafting QB’s high (i.e. going up and getting Luck or RGIII). Big Ben was drafted 11th and the 3rd QB taken, Tebow drafted 25 the 2nd QB taken and everyone considers him a vast overdraft, Flacco was 19th and the 2nd QB taken, Dalton was 35th and the 5th QB taken, and Schaub was drafted 90th and I believe the 5th QB taken.
The other issue is you are only looking at draft status and not production. Who cares where Tim Tebow was drafted, he’s not a top 20 QB. The fact that Alex Smith was taken 1st overall has zero impact, he’s a great game manager but not going to carry that team on his back.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I'm tired of everyone bring Brady up as a miracle.
Yes, I understand he was drafted in the 6th round but if anyone watched the little documenatry ESPN had on his draft day you will recall he was rated as a 2nd round talent . So, its not like all of the draft analysts were saying he had no chance to succeed, he just slid in the draft which happens to players EVERY year. Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest
If you see above in a previous comment, this is precisely why I focused on the NFC and not the AFC. The Brady situation was an enigma about how he fell so far, and this is not representative of the current state of the NFL.
I only mentioned him here to address the AFC-side comment. But even including these guys (and tossing out Brady) supports the point that elite QB play is vital to success.
to plays devils advocate
what about Romo? He’s better than most of the QB’s listed
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Stevo a bit off topic but
What are your thoughts on Santonio Holmes for Gaffney or a 5th or 6th rounder? he is a complete headcase but a definite talent. Seems to jets would love to unload him but can’t because of his contract. I think the Jets got him for only a 5th. To big a risk to bring him in?
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
As Parks pointed out correctly:
He’s such a malcontent, with the ability to rip a locker room apart and destroy a team.
Pretty big risk here for any price.
Also, he has a pretty hefty contract number....and you'd be giving up a draft pick
All for a guy who quits on his team, takes himself out of plays, and hasn’t performed at an elite level since he played in Pittsburgh….
Sounds an awful lot like Haynesworth to be honest
Its a huge risk no doubt...
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
At least the fan base
here in NY wants this guy out of town at any cost and I’m not sure if I even want him. However, I think we could get him for a 6th or Gaffney straight up. Would be interesting to compare the contract he signed with the Jets with what we might have to give one of the big name FA recievers
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
Right But...
I think we need to keep Gaffney as our #2
And when talking about signing a FA, i know many think that big money should only be thrown at someone who is at least a decent character guy
Well, we need to upgrade WR
we are stuck with Moss (unless thats the guy you move to get Holmes) and I would really like to think Hank could make the move to be the #2 or #3 WR
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
Eh, we aren't really stuck with Moss...we don't owe him that much money
And SteveO just talked on another post about how Santonio’s contract is backloaded with lots of guaranteed money, so acquiring him would put the Skins on the hook for a lot of money in future years.
Without a contract restructure, acquiring him should be out of the question
BTW I like gaffney
as well. He has been our best WR and is a classy guy, but I’m not sure Moss, Gaffney, and Hank is the best combo in the world. We need to improve, and somebody going to have to be the odd man out. Moss’ contract is a big hit to the cap if we cut him, and I certainly want to give Hank every opportunity to be the #2 guy
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
Oh i agree, we have no #1, which we need
I think the thought of Holmes for cheap is intriguing, but hopefully we can do better to find a #1 WR
I think the big thing is the Jets really can't unload him due to his contract
They backloaded that deal, and gave him $24 million guaranteed, that means that they’d have to eat up a ton of cap space just to get him off their team. Now since a good chunk of that guaranteed money is in the base salary, maybe it will be tradable as opposed to having to cut him, but that is less enticing to a team that is getting him. A big part of the reason why Haynesworth was traded was due to the fact that the Pats could get out of that deal at any time with little or no penalty.
My guess is it will have to be like the McNabb deal where he agrees to restructure to benefit the Jets and moreso his new team. While that could cheapen his contract some, I doubt he’d really take that much less money, so I’d pass.
Honestly while I’m not really a fan of a FA receiver this year, there are so many of them the Skins might be able to find some bargains. If they do go that route I’d look for more short term options (even if it is a vet like Wayne who might only be here 3-4 years), that are cheaper.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I agree but he's also an anomoly
To be honest I only dislike Romo because he’s a Cowboy…now that he knows how to change that I’ll wait for the news that he’s switching teams! :P
how did I know you were going to find something to argue about...
no, my point is – these are the teams were are competiting with. We need to find a way to outscore them, given they have the good QBs.
yes but it is more than that
we need to look at the 10 best QB’s in the league and how to compete with them. And guess what in most years between 4-7 of them were not 1st round picks.
we also might want to figure out what else makes these teams tick, like good to great defenses, offensive lines and weapons for their QB’s.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I've spent one too many seasons watching a team play without a QB
I agree that it’s time to back up the truck full of picks and make them an offer they can’t refuse.
"If a man speaks and there is no woman around to hear him, is he still wrong???"
looks like the jags are out of the QB hunt for this season
As for me, all I know is that I know nothing.
*Socrates*
depends on the cost, we have lots of holes to fill
If the cost for luck is two first round picks and a couple of 2nd round picks plus more later round picks then I’m passing.
If we can get Luck for two 1st round picks and 2 more later round picks then I’d go for that.
On the other hand if we can get RG III (by trading with the Browns) for just the two 1st round picks then I’d go for that.
If all else fails then go for Foles or Tannehil or one of the others.
Foles will be a better NFL QB
Foles reminsds me of Matt Schaub a lot both in size and skill. Tannehill, i’ll admit I haven’t seen a lot of his games, but the ones I did see I wasn’t impressed. Missed open recievers, made wrong reads and his footwork isn’t very good. He’s def. a project and I for one am tired of seeing us draft projects or reaching on QB’s and it biting us in the ass
I like him
He has a really strong arm, but agree, he needs work. I would be content if we took Orton as a FA and Foles in the 2nd, if Griffin is not available at the 6th pick
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
I could certainly get behind that
almost all rookie QBs need some work – guys like Newton are a rarity.
you only get suckered on trades when the other guy knows how bad you want it
which is the danger of only preparing for 1 possibility.
No, we don’t need to trade up for Luck.
First off, you only used half the playoff QBs in the league, so your sample size is a bit skewed there pal.
Second, Alex Smith being a first round QB means exactly nothing, considering that he’s widely regarded as a bust. That team has won on the back of its Defense.
Rodgers and Brees don’t support your argument to trade up either because they weren’t picked in the top 10, let alone 1st overall.
Third, this right here:
I’d give a 2012 1st rounder (#6 overall), 2013 1st rounder, and a 2014 first rounder. If the Colts didn’t want picks that far out, I’d give them a 2012 1st rounder (#6 overall), a 2012 2nd rounder, and a 2013 1st rounder.
is FAR underestimating what it will cost to move up. Try this year’s 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, next year’s 1st and 2nd, and you’re a bit closer to the mark.
Lastly, there is absolutely NO guarantee that Luck is a “sure thing,” as everyone seems to say he is.
great point deep ball
we would be unable to assemble any weapons or protection for Luck…nd he would become Carr 2.0
When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it." -Russell Ziskey
is FAR underestimating what it will cost to move up. Try this year’s 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, next year’s 1st and 2nd, and you’re a bit closer to the mark.
I didn’t try to represent Luck’s pricetag. I represented what I would be willing to give up for him. I’d probably even go a little higher.
And you say that there is “NO guarantee” that Luck will be a sure thing… Well there is also “NO guarantee” that the price for him will be what you stated as an almost certainty… Where did your estimate come from? The Sports Junkies? Jim Rome? Sheesh…
no it isn't known what the price to move up will be
but is there any reason as of yet to assume that it won’t be groundbreaking?? The Chargers to move up one spot in the 1998 draft for Ryan Leaf gave up more than you suggested, to move up 5 spots for Luck. And that was before there was a cap on draft picks making higher picks less of a risk, thereby increasing their value.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Put it this way
to get to the #6 pick from the Browns, Atlanta traded their 1st, second, 4th, and 2012 1st. They had the 27th pick.
The difference between the # 6 and #27 pick on the draft value chart is 920 points.
The difference between the #6 pick and the #1 pick is a whopping 1,400 points. Therefore, based on that alone, we will be giving up a lot more than Atlanta did in order to get Luck. Add that to the fact that there is likely going to be a bidding war or him and we’re talking even more than what I projected it will take. Even my projection, which was based off the Atlanta trade, is probably shy of the mark.
So yes: I will GUARANTEE you that the price for the #1 pick will be equal to or more than what I estimated.
FWIW John Clayton predicts the Skins trading up with St. Louis to grab Griffin.
I see it as more cushion for the pushin'
So what are you saying ?
That we need an elite qb to compete for playoffs spots ? The answer to that in my opinion is no . We can certainly compete with a Scaub type , a Ryan Type A Flaccos type , A Stafford type , A Newton type and the 49ers are doing it with a Smith . Heck a Freeman type
This is what we need , an above avg qb who doesnt turn the ball over a lot and can make a play when available .
To me the definition of an elite qb is top 5-6 , and to me Brady , Brees, Rodgers , P Manning qualify hands down for that with Rivers and Big Ben possibly fighting for the 5th spot . hen you have the next tier and then the 3rd tier before you get to avg .
I like those categories
elite, 2nd tier, 3rd tier and then average. So does Rex fall into the average tier or the 5th tier?
How do we know that we need to trade up ?
We’ll know more when draft day gets here , but there is a good chance that Holmgren will sign Flynn as a FA . Holmgren is famous for signing FA QB’s from his former teams , that know his preferred offensive schemes . He did that with Favre , and Hasslebeck . I would not be at all surprised to see him pick-up Flynn as a FA , and use his 2-1st round picks to get weapons for Flynn .
umm Favre was never on a 'former team' of Mike Holmgren
Favre was drafted by the Falcons (while Holmgren was OC for the 49ers). He was brought into the Packers by Packers G.M. Ron Wolf who was a big Farve fan and tried to convince the Jets to draft him the year before when he was an assistant G.M. there. Holmgren molded Favre but he had zero previous experience in his system.
While Holmgren brought both Hasselbeck to the Seahawks and Wallace to the Browns via trade, he did originally draft both players.
Flynn actually isn’t in the same offense as the Holmgren offense, as Mike McCarthey isn’t a Holmgren pupil.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Good idea to look at the NFC QB situation
as that is the path to the promised land when it comes down to it…but honesly all you have to do is look at the NFC East….trust me, it makes me want to puke but here we go:
Gmen: Eli
Boys: Romo
Iggles: Vick
Skins: Grossman (just threw up alittle bit in my mouth)
Obviously we all have know this since last offseason, but still putting it on paper forces the soul to grasp what the mind doesnt want to…we were/are fools if we thought we had a chance with Rex. Okay, so what else do the teams in our own division have that is glaringly lacking on the Skins….a playmaker WR.
Boys: Multiple threats in Bryant, Austin, Robinson
Gmen: Multiple threats in Nicks, Cruz, Manningham
Iggles: Multiple threats in Jackson (might be gone), Maclin
Skins:…..Gaffney, Moss, Hank?…..not going to cut it
The logical arguement is that since each of the three other teams have top tier QBs that WRs like Cruz can emerge and have breakout years…but the fact is that our WR corps doesnt hold a candle to any of our division foes WR corps.
In summation, we absolutely MUST get our franchise QB and a playmaker at WR (in addition to Hank, if he even turns into one) this offseason. Otherwise, there is no point in comparing ourselves to the rest of the NFC, as we wont make it past our own division.
Hail to 'Em
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