Let's take a look into the trade back and pick up extra picks strategy in 2012. This is the way Shanahan and Allen did things in last years draft focusing on the defense instead of taking one of the QB's from last years mediocre draft class. The QB draft class in 2011 featured 4 QB's selected in the first 12 picks of the draft, however every QB that was picked was a reach, Cam Newton should have been a top 15 type of pick not 1st overall, Jake Locker should have been maybe a late 1st rd pick and the rest was 2nd/3rd rd talent, but a lot of teams needed QB's cause free agency was after the draft so teams panicked and reached for lesser talented QB's. Shanahan did not make the mistake of reaching for a lesser quality type QB and instead opted to trade back from the #10 spot to #16 and picked up a 2nd rd pick in the process. I would have drafted Robert Quinn from North Carolina cause i thought they needed a pass rusher in a bad way, but was ok with them trading back last season.
Now lets look at that same trade back strategy this season also known as the HOPE theory, last season Jacksonville traded up to #10 because they thought the Redskins wanted to pick Blaine Gabbert, so with the desperation on teams that needed or wanted a QB the Redskins seized the opportunity and traded back. This year the Redskins are not going to be in the same position with a player on the board that a lot of other teams got to have. So the Redskins could be stuck at the 6 spot or having to trade back with a team and not get the proper value for their pick. Let's see how this plays out
1 Luck, 2 Blackmon, 3 Kalil, 4 Griffin, 5 Claiborne 6 possible player team target Richardson
With Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina and Buffalo all not needing a RB and picking behind the Redskins that basically eliminates a trade partner looking to get Richardson cause they can trade with any of the 4 teams for a cheaper trade price. But there is still some HOPE that a team like Cincy lose their minds and offer you both their 1st rd pick this year #17 and #21 to move into the 6 spot i would say it is less than 5%
1 Luck, 2 Kalil, Blackmon, 4 Griffin, 5 Richardson, 6 possible player teams target Claiborne
I think there are 4 CB's besides Claiborne with 1st rd talent Dre Kirpatrick Alabama, Alfonso Dennard Nebraska, Janoris Jenkins North Alabama, and Chase Minnifield Virginia so i think that eliminates teams that may want to add a CB from moving all the way up to the #6 spot to get Claiborne, and paying the price in picks or future picks when there are other CB's with similar talent later in the Rd. But there is still some HOPE that a team offer you their 2nd rd pick this year to move up to 6 spot but you aint getting enough to validate a trade. i say the chance of you getting somebody's next years number 1 pick for the right to draft Claiborne is less than 3%.
1 Luck, 2 Kalil, 3 Claiborne, 4 Griffin, 5 Richardson 6 possible player teams target Blackmon
This is the least likely of scenarios I just dont think Blackmon will fall to the #6 spot cause even if he make it past Rams, Vikes and Browns, I think the Bucs will either take him or look to trade with Jacksonville or Carolina pick up a extra pick or 2 and still get a guy they like such as Kirkpatrick, but if Blackmon falls that would be your best chance to trade back in fact you may even be able to get a 2013 1st rd pick, But you HOPE that he make it past 4 teams that need a Wr and teams behind that might look to jump ahead like Jacksonville i think the chance of him still being there is less than 10%
OK now that we looked at all the HOPE scenarios let's continue to look at the other part of the trade back strategy. Most who want to trade back say that in 2013 it will give the Redskins the Ammo to make a bold move and trade up for a Top QB prospect, and with the extra 2nd rd pick this year take a flier on one of the 2nd tier QB's like Tannehill, Foles or Weeden. First of all there is a really slim chance that by trading back this season that the Redskins will get a 2013 1st rd pick, most likely they will get a 2012 2nd and 4th, so where is all this ammo is coming from in 2013??? Also you dont take fliers on 2nd rd picks, they are suppose to develop into starter in the 1st or 2nd year, so you would be throwing away a pick(that is what a flier is, HOPING he works out) on a QB, with the intent on taking a QB with a 1st rd pick in 2013, and trading up if need be with all the ammo that you got from this draft.
The Top 2 QB prospects in this years draft Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are better prospects than all of the guys coming out next year. Most talent evaluators say that Andrew Luck is the best QB prospects since Peyton Manning or John Elway, and RG3 is not far behind some would take Griffin III over Luck, any any other draft year Griffin III would be the #1 overall pick. Next years guy are NOT as good as either of this years top 2 QB that includes Barkley, Bray, Jones, Wilson or Murray. so why would be willing to trade up for a lesser talented prospect??? You HOPE that next years QB's are as good as Luck and Griffin III.
With all that HOPE you might as well give the Colts a Herschel Walker deal for Andrew Luck.