Does round matter when drafting a QB?
I have been reading a lot of posts on drafting quarterbacks and how it is either important or not important what round they are drafted. In this post I will remain neutral but I have researched and punched up some numbers.I like stat mapping so here is some info to help you decide whether drafting high or low is a better way to go. I researched playoff teams and their quarterbacks from 2001 to 2010 and charted playoff appearances, wins, Superbowl's and Superbowl wins. then i separated them by draft round.
|
Round Drafted |
Playoff Appearances |
Playoff Wins |
Super Bowl Appearances |
Superbowl Wins |
|
1st |
56 |
56 |
9 |
5 |
|
2nd |
17 |
10 |
1 |
1 |
|
3rd |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
4th |
3 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
5th |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
6th |
16 |
20 |
5 |
3 |
|
7th |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
8th |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
9th |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
UNDRAFTED |
19 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
I hope this puts things into perspective. Thanks for reading.
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Comments
if anything
it shows that it doesnt matter when you draft them really just as long as you draft the player that fits the system and has the talent to exceed their ceiling.
hell else are we supposed to talk about? our awesome 2011 season?
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
it is very telling cause they one 6th rd guy is responsible for all the playoff wins, SB wins and SB appearences and the is Tom Brady
and the 2nd Rd QB is Drew Brees but he was the 2nd QB to be drated in his draft. But the bottom line is the cream is gonna rise to the top, the most talented guys are gonna be picked first and they will win more often than not
undrafted
jeff garcia, jake delhomme, jay fiedler, shane matthews,kelly holcomb, tommy maddox, anthony wright, jon kitna, tony romo, and kurt warner
@RiggsSkins on the ole Twitter
Same year we picked
Shuler and Frerotte. Garcia AND Kurt Warner weren’t picked that year. Ugh.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
Obviously, the success rate has been higher for first rounders because the scoutable intangibles fall on those guys, which leads to their being drafted high. But I will forever argue that the QB you draft does not have to be a first rounder.
Every QB is a different man, in different situations facing different circumstances. Obviously Brady is the sole owner of those 6th round numbers, but the likes of Warner, Romo, Brady, and Brees being overlooked was not because of who they are, but because of their supposed “limitations.” So much more needs to go into the evaluation of the QB position because you can’t just grab the guy with the biggest arm. You look at the likes of Brady, Brees, and Warner and you see the work ethic, the heart, and the leadership. Those are not things you can teach a JaMarcus Russell.
So while yes, the “numbers” may give the nod to the first round guy, it has to be known just how much more to it there really is. Being a QB that’s drafted in the first round means nothing other than you were drafted in the first round. it’s all about what you do with the opportunities you are presented with. Playoff wins are one thing, but looking at QBs drafted in the first round overall, the success rate there becomes a different story.
I don’t think Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Boomer Esiason, Roger Staubach, Dan Fouts or Joe Theismann mind too much now that they weren’t taken in the first round.
If you were to ask me, I think Brandon Weeden has the chance to be that mid round guy that becomes something in this league. He can make every throw, it’s just his career will just be cut short. But like I said, it’s all about the guys mental makeup and work ethic.
like i said
i just put the numbers out and left it open to interpretation. you make very valid points. and also Matt Hasselbeck shares the 6th round stats with brady but yes brady has the majority.
@RiggsSkins on the ole Twitter
No I know, I see the logic behind your examples, the numbers are there. But I’m just in the boat of not HAVING to draft your guy in the first round at all costs. Many fans believe that if you draft your QB in the first round, he’ll be a success. Playoff success only covers the first rounders that have panned out.
They do?
Many fans believe that if you draft your QB in the first round, he’ll be a success.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
That's not the same thing as what you claimed.
“more likely to be a success” and “will be a success” are different.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I don't think
You’re connecting with what he’s saying.
Anyone with a head on their shoulders knows that a first rounder is MORE likely to have success. But most (smart) fans know that NO PICK is a sure thing.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
I do think he will be more successful
Kellen Clemens is the ceiling for a guy like Nick Foles, and i think Griffin will be better than a Kellen Clemens clone.
more often than not the most talented guys will be drafted first
like i said there are gonna be a few guys like Brady, Romo, and Warner(Brees was the 2nd QB taken in his draft so i dont look at him as being looked over 32nd overall Rodgers was 24th and the 2nd QB off the board) but for the most part the Top rated prospects are gonna be better palyers than later round QB’s there is a huge drop off in talent from the top 2 prospects in a draft class with the rest
Brutus makes some excellent points...
you cannot quantify, or place on a spread sheet, the heart of a winner.
I would also content, as last years draft atributes, sometimes these guys are taken TOO HIGH. Just because they are the best of their class, does not, in any way, make them prospective great, elite QBs.
The fact of the matter is this, it is all conjecture. Each team has a scouting department. It is their job to project the talent of prospects and how it projects on their team. This is why I am not a proponent of EITHER strategies of trading up / down. Each year is unique to itself, based on the talent available. So many appear to be immovable on their stances, like they belong to some political party, and even if they don’t completely agree with the party, they feel some obligation to stay the course. I would also content, that many use past mistakes as proof of their position, whereas I don’t believe any of that is valid. Each player, team, organization, staff and draft class is unique. Employees come and go, as do players EACH YEAR! There are new coordinators, new philosophies, new team directions. So, in summation, neither side (those who support trade up, or those who support staying in place or those who support trading down) is wrong. It is the fascination of building a NFL winner…………… That is what makes this game the best…
now take out the statistical anomaly known as Tom Brady and recalculate
and you end up with virtually all SB winning QBs coming from the 1st round.
Also keep in mind that some guys need years of development.
We witnessed this weekend what happens when a mediocre QB faces off against a great QB – the 2 great QBs are going to the SB and the mediocre QBs will be watching, not playing in, the SB.
OK
But how first round drafts picks never made the playoffs. Or how many teams have made the playoffs after mortgaging their future to pick that one quarterback?
You have to find the quarterback that fits your team and compliments the other players the best.
+1
It’s a fairly easy exercise to line up a stats sheet that shows that the most talented QBs are taken in the 1st round of the draft.
Show me the stats of all the QBs who didn’t live up to their potential, and of teams that mortgaged future draft picks to select a 1st round QB.
by StephanHart on Jan 23, 2012 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
Your point only proves that it is hard to find a great QB.
But it’s still true that you’re more likely to find a great QB in the first round.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I dont think i said it was easy to find a great QB
by StephanHart on Jan 23, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't say you said that.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I dunno, but
The LAST team that “mortgaged their future” to move up is going to their second Superbowl with that quarterback.
Not advocating, just saying.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
The best QB prospects almost always come in earlier rounds
Is this really up for debate?
60% of playoff wins were by QBs taken in the first round. That number is even higher if you take out one QB (Brady).
Most good quarterbacks come from the first round.
Period.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Indeed. That's why first and second round picks are the most important.
And as QB is the most important position…
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins

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