They say you are either rebuilding or reloading.
To masterfully accomplish either one is a feat, as time and time again, teams fail to correctly identify which of these paths is the appropriate one to take. Redskins fans know all too well the fool's gold that comes when your team reloads when it should be rebuilding. The current "Rebuild That Isn't Called a Rebuild" in Washington is going well. As we beat each other up in the coming months over trade up vs. trade down strategy, we shouldn't forget that even if we stayed put in the first and second rounds, we would be getting two players inside the top 40 of this draft class. That is huge.
Granted, we have generally been mediocre enough over the years to be in a decent drafting position, but there is a new sheriff in town for this go around. A lot of people are saying, "We Trust In Bruce." Based on what we see on the field and on the sidelines, I see no reason not to embrace that this offseason. I am 100% confident that if we just made our picks in the first and second rounds, we would draft two guys who would start for us immediately. We could use two starters.
If our team wasn't in such dire, obvious, painful need of a quarterback, Bruce Allen would have safer options available to him. Our needs, however, will dictate the risk inherent in taking a quarterback when there are players still on the board that could come in and be all-stars on your team. This we know and this Bruce Allen knows.
Personally, I don't think we can afford not getting two starters out of those picks in this draft--both players have to start for us to win next year. I suppose a team might be able to keep its current second rounder in a trade up scenario, so that would technically still work. If you think you can get extra top 40 picks (in this draft and subsequent drafts) by trading down though, you increase the chances of bringing in talent capable of contributing on the field right away. That said, the need for a quarterback is inescapable.
If Bruce Allen has to pick at #6, it seems very unlikely that he would select a quarterback, as most of us assume that the top two guys will be gone. It would be incredibly likely then that he would use his high second rounder to trade up for or draft a quarterback. Of all the scenarios, this seems most probable. With other teams in better position to land the top two quarterbacks, the Redskins will be deciding who they think the next best guy is and whether he will fall to them in the second round.
The answer to that could determine what we do for the next two years. If we draft him in the second round and he falls flat on his face, it would be easier to justify burning a first rounder in 2013 for his replacement. Otherwise, you have to commit-- you know, pick out china and bedroom furniture. In the modern era, I saw a stat on ESPN that only four times has a team used back-to-back first round picks on a quarterback. If we take someone in the first round next year, we're immediately at the "move in together" stage.
Getting that pick correct will be the determining factor in how soon we go from rebuilding to reloading.