FanPost

Season Predictions w/ Confidence Level Estimator

I wanted to share with the Hogs Haven community something that I do every year. I, as many of you do, go through our schedule and pick wins/losses to make a final prediction of our record.

An interesting piece that I add though is a Confidence Level estimator for my picks. Although a person might pick the Skins to lose two different games, their confidence in that outcome may be drastically different. For example, I have the Skins losing to both the Patriots and at the Dolphins- however, I think the former is far more likely than the latter. As such, I have assigned a confidence level of victory (or % chance of a win) to each game as well- so we have a 5% shot against the Patriots and a 40% shot against the Dolphins. This helps to normalize the results in our decision-making process of wins and losses. In the end this usually results in a decimal place record that is similar to the original prediction if you just went game by game (and it captures the feelings associated with the original prediction as well). And as always, since "On any given Sunday, any team can beat any other team," the % chances to win should never be 0% or 100%.

Another thing that I like to do is to put a rationale as to why the Skins will win/lose. This often is very comical when you look back throughout the season. From this past year, some were astonishingly accurate- “Titans will be erratic this year, Skins will catch them in a down week.” And some were… well let’s just say, some were less accurate- “Bucs will be terrible again this year.”

I don’t like it when folks selectively remember and remind other folks when they “predicted” something right, and then they conveniently forget to ever mention when they were wrong. (For the record during their respective drafts, I once said that Byron Leftwich would be a Hall of Famer, and I had said that Clay Matthews and Kevin Durant would be busts… woops.) So I am including last year’s analysis as well so you can all see some of the good, bad, and silly thoughts that I had.

If you are curious: I predicted the Skins to go 5-11 two years ago (they went 4-12); and I had them going 7-9 last year (they went 6-10). This year I have them at 7-9 (with a 7.3-8.7 confidence level estimated record), but I am obviously hopeful and cheering that they go 16-0. Enjoy, and please feel free to comment on your predictions for this season or what you like/dislike about mine.

2010 Opponent W L % chance Actual Result rationale






Cowboys
1 25%    W Cowboys will be legit this year.
Texans
1 20%    L Texans are continuing to rise.
at Rams 1
80%    L Rams will be too young to have it figured out by Wk3.
at Eagles 1
65%    W McNabb will win in return to Philly.
Packers
1 10%    W Packers are too good for the Skins.
Colts
1 5%    L Colts are elite.
at Bears 1
65%    W Close to a toss-up; Shanahan will be the difference maker.
at Lions 1
75%    L Lions will be better; Skins won't lose 2 years in a row to them.
Eagles
1 45%    L McNabb's let down game.
at Titans 1
70%    W Titans will be erratic this year; Skins catch them in a down week.
Vikings
1 5%    L Vikings are elite.
at Giants
1 35%    L Skins are not quite good enough to win in NYC.
Buccanears 1
90%    L Bucs will be terrible again this year.
at Cowboys
1 25%    L Cowboys will be legit this year.
at Jaguars 1
80%    W Jaguars are getting worse quickly.
Giants
1 40%    L Typical Skins division let down game.



735%

predicted record 7 9


estimated record 7.35 8.65 46%

 

2011 Opponent W L % chance Actual Result rationale
Giants 1 40% Giants injuries and Shanny's great wk1; but they have our number.
Cardinals 1 75% Kolb is overrated, Skins D gets it done.
at Cowboys 1 40% Dallas is worse this year, but they win the rivalry at home.
at Rams 1 15% Rams are much better, Bradford shreds our secondary.
Eagles 1 20% "Dream Team" gets it done unless Vick is hurt.
at Panthers 1 90% Panthers are terrible, Skins running game dominates.
at Bills 1 85% Bills are terrible, Skins running game dominates.
49ers 1 75% 49ers are in transition, weak QB play is exploited by Skins pass rush.
at Dolphins 1 40% Evenly matched teams, Dolphins win at home.
Cowboys 1 60% Dallas is worse this year, Skins win at home as the team gels.
at Seahawks 1 55% 12th man can't make Jackson/Whitehurst play better.
Jets 1 5% Jets are elite.
Patriots 1 5% Patriots are elite.
at Giants 1 30% Can't pick against a team who has won 9 of the last 10.
Vikings 1 65% Shanny gets Haslett to unleash fury in the McNabb revenge game.
at Eagles 1 30% Skins can only win if the Eagles are resting starters for the playoffs.
730%
predicted record 7 9
estimated record 7.3 8.7 46%
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