Boldly Hoping: Why the Redskins Rebuild Could Happen Much Faster Than Expected
I didn't even know it was still there. After all these many long months, there it was, screaming for some love: my italics key. On a plane ride to Minnesota yesterday, I knew that today was going to feature a fresh batch of optimism. As you all know, I am the executive chef at this particular Kool-Aid bistro. If you think Ryan Kerrigan is too young to impact the defense in year one; if you think that Mike Shanahan is too ego-maniacal to effectively manage this roster; if you think that no team will EVER win as long as Dan Snyder is the owner--this article is not for you. On the other hand, if you think that Leonard Hankerson can grab 70+ balls in his rookie season; if you think that Jim Haslett is going to make outrageous gains in his second chance to put a decent defense on the field; if you think that the free agent frenzy we are about to embark on will add enough talent to our roster to win a few games that maybe we did not expect to win in 2011--well then you are ready to help me dust off the italics button and rock the next episode in our Boldly Hoping series.
Welcome back y'all. We have kept the peace around here for months in a football-less world. It was difficult at first, but all we missed was the offseason. Granted, we have always cherished our hardware when it comes to offseason trophies. While there is still some offseason left to win, the lack of a traditional offseason really gives this franchise a fresh start.
All the talk of process and rebuilding we have tossed around over the last few months is tabled for the moment. It's a good news day. This Redskins team has an opportunity to make the playoffs in 2011. What?!? Welcome to Boldly Hoping.
Let's start at the top. Mike Shanahan in year two is going to be a lot different than most of the coaches we have seen here under Dan Snyder, except for only Joe Gibbs. When Joe Gibbs came back for his second tour of duty, he started out with a 6-10 record. The next year he turned that around to 10-6, and forgive me if I am off base here, but that team he took to the playoffs in his second season was not-on paper-a team to which people were attributing a lot of playoff buzz. Underscoring the notion that some coaches are, well, better than others, Gibbs made strides in his second season the first time around as well. He went 8-8 in his rookie season and then came back and went 8-1 in a labor strife-shortened season. We'll never know if Marty Schottenheimer could have built something from his 8-8 season, but given the 8-3 finish he had that year, it is likely he would have come back fairly strong. As for Mike Shanahan, he did not get a shot at a full second season under Al Davis as coach of the Raiders. But in Denver, you can see he made a ton of progress from the first year to the second year, going from 8-8 to 13-3 (he won the Super Bowl in his third year...no John Elway on our roster though.)
The point is when you have a legitimate NFL coach as opposed to a college coach wannabe, or an over-promoted quarterbacks coach you get the benefit of accelerated improvement from year to year. I think we have spent so much time this summer looking at our roster and wondering where in God's name the improvement would come from, we may have lost sight of the incremental improvement that could come from the man walking the sideline.
The next logical place to apply some blind optimism is the quarterback spot. Despite the belief that John Beck could be a starter in the league in 2011, I do believe the key to the upcoming season is Rex Grossman winning that competition in camp. Now, at his best, Rex Grossman is no Donovan McNabb in his prime. But McNabb is no longer in his prime and given Grossman's comfort level in this offense, it is conceivable that his performance could be as good as anything this version of McNabb could give. Rex knows Kyle Shanahan's offense as well as, if not better, than any other quarterback in the league. if you believe some reports out of Houston two years ago, Grossman had a better grasp of Kyle's scheme than Matt Schaub.
The truth is if we go the Rex Grossman route, we need him to be able to contribute positively for two seasons and not just one. Assuming we make the move for a franchise quarterback in the draft in 2012, you would hate to throw that guy right into the fire. What better way for the rookie to learn the offense than to have a good year and a half of it on film to study?
While none of us is head-over-heels for Rexy, he was the starting quarterback for a Super Bowl team. He is not the worst we have seen in burgundy and gold and he is not the most depressing figure to start under center for us. The "At Least He Isn't Danny Wuerffel" argument can only get a guy so far though. He is going to have be hitting more than 60% of his throws and he is going to have keep his interceptions down.
And our defense is going to have to return to the top tier of the league's defenses. I think we could all agree that Green Bay is bit longer on talent than us, but in their second year of the 3-4 they really took off. One would hope that in our second year of the 3-4 we would reign in our yards against considerably, ramp up the pressure on the quarterback, and increase the amount of turnovers. It is a lot harder to simply "hope" that this will happen, but if you look around the league, it is not uncommon to find second-year systems making dramatic improvements.
What brings all of this together is the inevitable blitz on free agency that the Redskins are poised to embark upon. Our biggest cause of concern--the offensive line--appears to be a major area the team intends to address. In fact, I would not be shocked to see this team bring in both both a tackle and a guard capable of starting immediately and then staying around for a while.
We are also hearing that the team has its sights set on one of the top wide receivers on the market. I'm still not sold on Santonio Holmes as the answer, but the fact that this team seems to be taking the position so seriously in free agency leads me to believe they refuse to be short-handed or reliant on rookies that may not be ready.
As much as we are prepared for the worst, I think it is more than okay to keep an open heart to the possible. For the Redskins and their fans, yes...that does include the playoffs.
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"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
We have an agreement
I get to write these from time to time and you get to make fun of me for it, but in OTHER comment sections.
Besides, I’ve been tracking your comments the last month or two and I think I see a little hope in you.
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It would take several years of success of an aggressive free agency this season to "convert" some of the critics to be
“true believers.” Even those that are positive on an aggressive free agency will need to see success as translated into a sustainable play off caliber team because it is a test of football team building strategy.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 20, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I may be an old fuddy duddy,
but I think you build through the draft more than free agency. like 90% draft 10% free agency
I like Turtles!
Build versus Maintain - With draft picks it takes too many years to do a turn around. Your first and second
round picks will have seen their better days if you expect to get the foundation in the draft.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 20, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
You can turn a team around with 2 great drafts.
Or 1 great draft and 2 good ones.
Plenty of teams have done it. The Jets are the current model.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
by smutsboy1 on Jul 21, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
perfect example....
if you ignore the fact that LaDanian Tomlinson, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Bart Scott and Antonio Cromartie were not drafted by the Jets and all pretty major contributors….and that’s off the top of my head.
I didn't say their whole team was drafted now did I?
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Since you have set the Jets as the current model, what is the time frame for the Jets' team building?
I presume that you have set three free drafts as the time the core was built. The Jets drafts from 1998 to 2010 – http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?teamId=3430&type=team. Give me the details and I will try to verify this theory.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 21, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
The Jets did have a very good draft in 2006: D'Brickshaw Ferguson, pick #4 and Nick Mangold #29 as well
as 2007: Darrelle Revis #14 and David Harris #47. Alan Faneca was signed from the Steelers (1998 draft #26), but he was instrumental in getting Ferguson up to snuff as a NFL blocker. Damien Woody was also another import drafted by the Patriots in the 1999 draft #17. The best Jets OL was made up of two Jets 1st round picks,
two imported 1st round picks, and Brandon Moore, a UDFA. To say that the Jets were built by using their draft picks is an over statement for both offense and defense to some extent. The OL has had some shuffling in 2010 and will also have some in 2011, but they are still relatively young. Shaun Ellis was draft 2000 #12 and Bryan Thomas was a 2002 #22 pick. NT Sione Pouha was a 2005 #88 pick. The Jets have kept quite a few draft picks from rounds 1 to 4, but as many good picks have ended up on other teams’ rosters.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 21, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought I was the Kool-Aid King...WTF?
I do agree with the article, we’re going 10-6 this year.
"That's what she said!"
hahaha
This feels like the rough draft of a Disney movie
I like Turtles!
I heard Selena Gomez is in line to play Kevin
Chris Rock is slated to play my character.
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
So in the move version, You'll actually be funny.
Who will play Parks?
A Redskin Potato
by Mr PotatoHead on Jul 20, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Faith Hill
In drag
No Danny, Nooooooo - Tom Landry, 1982., and Washington Redskins fans, 1999-
by BillWard on Jul 21, 2011 6:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Paul Giamatti is pretty logical choice
Or maybe James Earl Jones
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
I was going to say either Malcolm Jamal-Warner
or the guy who played Corky on Life Goes On
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I'll take The Guy Who Played Corky on Life Goes On, for $500 Alex
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
You have to say "What is", come on now
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
There's no "What is..."
…when selecting a category.
by XVII_XXII_XXVI on Jul 20, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
hahaha very good point
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
Called the guy who played Corky about this
and he said, “I’m too smart for that.”
I have been drinking the Kool-aid for some time now..
Am I the only one who thought that athough we had a poor record, with the exception of a couple games, we were in it until the end. We had a competitive team for 4 quarters in most of the games last year. Add in the impact of AH not playing, losing Landry for most of the season, mediocre QB play, all in the first year of a new system for the offense and defense, our record should have been worse. I don’t believe all the hype that this team is tanking or that we should tank to get a franchise QB. Don’t be surprised if we win some of those games that everyone else in the media have us pegged to lose!
by KonartistNupe on Jul 20, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
When I look at the stats that matter
Red Zone scoring, 3rd down conversions, and russhing, we stunk. If you can’t run the football, score TD’s inside the 25, and convert 3rd downs, your not going to win much in the NFL.
I personally can’t see Beck/Grossman combining for more than 15 TD’s. I hope we have a RB that can move the chains, gain over 1200 yds, and get double digit TD’s, but for now, that is a great unknown.
I’d love to drink the kool-aid, as I do every season, but it has left such a bad taste in my mouth for years, that I decided to switch to water.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
I expect improvement
But not a huge turnaround. Yes, we should be better in the second year of the new systems. Yes, we have improved the talent at a number of positions, and will add more in free agency.
We will have a LOT of roster turnover this year, and rookies almost always need time to develop. Even in normal offseasons, that tends to lead to some early season issues. With the shortened time to prepare the team, I think we should expect a very shakey start to the season. Our best bet is to hope that the teams we face early on have the same shakyness or more.
At some pointthis season though, I believe this team will start to click. Lets hope it doesn’t take too long.
A Redskin Potato
I agree with the in-season turnaround
I believe this team should get it around week 5
by KonartistNupe on Jul 20, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
While the in-season turnaround is not out of the question
It is more often than not associated with a first-year coach (see Gibbs 1, Schotty, and even Zorn for an example of the reverse turnaround.)
You would hope that the core of the team would have bought in by the start of the second season. Especially since this regime has been so aggressive in changing out personnel to suit their needs. The classic in-season turnaround always seems to heavily involve that “buying-in” moment. If we don’t have that yet, we are in a lot of trouble.
Week 5 is the bye…we will hit Week 6 with a vengeance.
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You would hope that the core of the team would have bought in by the start of the second season
Who exactly is the corp of this team? Do we have one?
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
I think we do...
I’d start with Trent Williams, Chris Cooley, Fred Davis, Brian Orakpo, LaRon Landry, DeAngelo Hall and London Fletcher, with London being the lone “old” exception. These would be the guys that others on their side of the ball will look to in order to see if they are buying in to the way the coaches want to play ball. i think there are more guys you could put in here for sure, and it is a fair point to suggest that our “core” is smaller than some of the more established teams, we do have something.
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
So out of the 7 you mentioned
we have 2 TE’s and a guy who ready to retire…………………….wow
JK, JK…….I believe we have a good group of youngsters ready to take control soon.
Hopefully next year we can say the corp of the team is: Orakpo, Kerrigan, Jenkins, Carriker, Landry, Barnes, Riley, Alexander, Neild, Hankerson, Paul, Helu, Davis, Williams, Capers, and…………………………………………………………drumroll……………..DRUMROLL!……………………….Landry Jones!
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
um,
I’d like there to be a good QB to be in my corp…and I just don’t see it in Landry Jones
I like Turtles!
Landry is a stud
he’s going to be like Bradford, with a little stronger arm.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
No OL in your core Tiller. Even T. Williams has yet to prove himself.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 20, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
WE MIGHT SIGN 1 OR 2 PLAYERS IN FA BUT.
Dont count on shanny signing alot of players , we have a long way to go but he should just use the ones we have this year and keep rebuilding from the draft and try and get ANDREW LUCK .We do not need anymore drama queens on our team , no more prema donnas that are looking for a huge pay day ( hint fat alberts) get rid of these idiots on our team that wanna act retarded (again fat albert) .Then start drafting good trouble free players that want a chance to prove he was worth drafting , instead of bums who want a big payday .
With the new CBA,
we might HAVE to spend alot on free agents. As long as we go for guys that are still hungry, and not looking for the big payday, what does it hurt?
What the shit
I don't think those type of players
…want to come here. London Fletcher was a deviation from the rule.
by killianskid34 on Jul 20, 2011 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Andrew Luck
Should and probably will be the #1 overall pick. We will not have the worst record in the league this year. You can cancel those plans!
by KonartistNupe on Jul 20, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
NOT DRINKING THE KOOL-AID
Just sippin’ a Capri Sun. I think we can have up to 4 impact rookies. Atogwe and other free agents can be solid, and I think that can get us to a .500 finish. That’s my being optimistic. Problem is I’m not on the Beck Bandwagon, like.. at all… Not until we see them suit up can we be sure on anything, but I’d give more wins to Grossman starting than John Beck-McGruber.
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 20, 2011 1:48 PM EDT reply actions
As long as we don't give up 59 again i'm o.k.
And pull a Theismann on dog killer, that would make my year!!!!!!!!
as long as we win
ONE. EFFING. GAME. against New York..
Jets don’t count…
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 20, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
I needed this hit, I was going through withdrawal!
Besides I don’t see where we lose this year (not speaking of games – but of the upswing in finding hidden talent and the surpise of finding dedicated hard workers that will stick with the team for years to come).
I think things really start to click this year…
Agree with KonartisNupe on the week 5 prediction…think we will all be surprised this season!
Legacee (phi nu…)
If the Skins have a reformed Rex Grossman, it is not a stretch to see an improved offense this season. The Team would
need offensive improvement over the last 3 games of 2010. Some upgrade in the offensive line such as replacing Rabach at C and a few guards, better play out of T. Williams and J. Brown can be expected. Enough has already transpired on the defense if we resign Rogers or get a CB with comparable coverage skills to see a turn around in that unit to at least a middle of the NFL pack defense.
Over half of the top ten NFL defenses are 3/4 base or 3/4 hybrids. The Patriots have been a 3/4 team yet are not an automatic in the top ten defenses. The point being not to get too optimistic.
The large number of roster changes will take awhile to gel on ST, front 7, and OL.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 20, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Football Outsiders on pass defense against various wide receiver sets. Surprise- the Skins were #1 in the NFL against
the number one WR – http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2011/formation-analysis-number-wrs-part-ii. Things went downhill from there. The Team was ranked 30th against the #2 WR. The addition of Astogwe should help to improve this measure if the the Skins have an adequate Rogers replacement or a resigning.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 20, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
#1 against #1, 30th against #2
Could that be Carlos v D’Angelo?
To my knowledge, in 2010 the neither of the Skins' CBs rotated to the other teams best receivers. The Team mainly
played zone rather than man-to-man pass defense. Someone else can give you a better answer on the pass coverages the Skins used. (Also Atogwe rather than Astogwe.)
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 21, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Hall played Man on some teams best WR
He did it a couple times in 2010
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
These posts are a public service
Redskins nation desperately needs fluff pieces like this from time to time. I enjoy reading them, despite the fact that our team has beaten me down so many times I can barely get it up. But barely getting it up is still getting it up!
i’m giving them 6-10 but if they have a magical FA period i will convince myself we are going 9-7 before the first game i’m sure..
The Beat Box aka skins secondary.
The trouble is....
…we think every FA period is a magical FA period. They don’t call us “offseason champions” for nothing. As long as Snyder holds the pink slip on the franchise, any magical FA period will be immediately suspect.
by killianskid34 on Jul 20, 2011 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Kris Jenkins is retiring..
OH NO, what are we going to do? We’re so screwed!
@Callahan_9 on the twitter machine.
haha
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Let's sign him anyway...
I would rather have a guy like that under contract and not playing for us than Haynesworth.
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Him and Kemo would be a Vinny esque NT rotation.
I’m down but only if it’s for big money.
@Callahan_9 on the twitter machine.
I think we’ll be competitive like we were last year and we’ll see progress and development with the young guys and people getting more comfortable with the system but we’re still forgetting we have so many holes and very little depth even with the 12 rookies and whatever we do in free agency, we will not be contenders.
"You're fucking out!"
You couldn't make a sweet enough Kool-Aid for me to drink this year
No way his team, devoid of talent, even sniffs the playoffs. Grossman had gotten worse since leading his Bears to a Super Bowl appearance, and is in no shape to take an offensively inept team like we have to the playoffs.
Quoting Jim Mora “PLAYOFFS?……………………………..you wanna talk about PLAYOFFS?………you kidding me, PLAYOFFS?, are you kidding me? I just hope we can win a game.”
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
You can badmouth the Redskins, Rex Grossman and Mike Shanahan
But don’t you ever badmouth my Kool-Aid…damn it Tiller! You know I double down on the sugar.
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously, big handicapping difference with you
You look at players and see the warts, I like to look at the big picture, trends, and changes. Assuming we get upgrades something like those in the HH GM exercise, I see 9-7 or 10-6, and borderliine playoffs. If they botch up FA completely, it could be 6-10.
It being a realist Donnio
I’m have always been one to hype this team up. I have always been one to think that a few good FA signings will help. This year in particular, I see a serious lack of talent on offense. It is much worse that it has been in the last decade. Our line is weak. We can not win with a weak line. Our WR’s are totally unproven, and unless we get a quality, big-play FA, I don’t reserve much hope other than building for the future with our young players. I’m not a huge Torain fan at RB. He is below average for starting RB’s in the league. He is oft injured, doesn’t have big play ability, and offers us nothing as a receiver out of the backfield. Hopefully Helu can change my feelings on our RB situation, but until I see him on Sundays, I’m glass half empty. And finally QB. Oh………….where do I start. We have, IMO, the worst QB situation in the entire league right now(well, at least we are tied with Arizona), but they at least seemed poisd to go make a move for a veteran in FA, and their team is a lot better than ours as it is. For us to have issues with the most important position on the football team, with still no light at the end of the tunnel is depressing.
I said before the draft, that id we didn’t get a QB of the future, it was going to be a long season in DC in 2011. I still believe that. Even if we had drafted a 1st or 2nd round QB in the draft, it still could have been a long season, but at least there would have been some light at the end of the tunnel.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
Everyone always cites the Packers D as making improvement in Year 2 but...
what about Cleveland that tried to play the 3-4 and is now going back to the 4-3? How long did it take Dallas to transition to their 3-4? What about the Ravens? I love to get loopy off the goofy juice as well but I’m just curious if we could expand our sample of 3-4 teams beyond the Packers.
We're "hoping" we follow the track of the Packers...
Baby steps…don’t worry, we’ll present multiple arguments.
by Ken Meringolo on Jul 20, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear ya!
I just feel that the Packers comparison is what I keep on getting so when that is all I’ve heard, it starts to become my expectation whether its realistic or not. Could use a few other comparisons just to see how likely it is to hit our mark.
by Floppy P Key on Jul 20, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Teams that use the 3-4 or some variant of it
New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins, and Houston Texans.
I like Turtles!
Interesting stat about 3-4 defenses
I forget the exact numbers, but there’s a giant drop off in QB success vs 4-3 than 3-4. And in what’s become/becoming a pass first league, 3-4 is what you want.
ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky wrote that Peyton Manning has an accuracy rating of 73.4 against teams that play base 4-3 defenses and 63.5 against 3-4s.
I like Turtles!
Peyton Manning also butt raped our 3-4 defense this past season, I’ve never seen an offense function so fast.
"You're fucking out!"
That was just insane......
even when we had that nasty infestation of Colts fans here they all agreed they had never seen anything quite like it. But you know what? We hung right with them and it was very winnable game, that ridiculous one handed grab down the sidelines was a killer.
it's been a while now so the details escape me.....
but I seem to remember later in the game, D was hangin tough and it was 3rd and long-ish. Peyton floated one deep down the left sideline, coverage was good and it was a left handed reach while tightroping the sidelines. One of those plays where we were doing eevrything right and still got burned, those are tough to recover from quickly.
Oh yeah I remember it
I believe it was Pierre Garcon, incredible catch, pretty sure it was on ESPN top 10 too. But the interception that sealed the deal was one handed and impressive as well.
Especially since we dropped like 3 easy picks from Manning in the first half. Great game, fun to watch, sucks we lost.
"You're fucking out!"
it was a great game......
we pushed them hard through some bad breaks, they made the big plays when they had to and we didn’t but there was no quit and I am proud of the way we played…….with the exception of the field goal unit.
The Bills played more 4/3 than 3/4 in 2010. Kyle Williams, Buffalo Bills, 6-1, 305 lbs, was the 2nd rated DT by PPF.
“The Bills ranked last in the league in run defense, but it was through no fault of Williams’. The fifth-year run-plugger established career-highs with 77 tackles and 5.5 sacks while finishing as Pro Football Focus’ top-rated nose tackle” Rated higher than Franklin in 2010.
Three year records – 2008-2010 http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/07/08/making-the-grade-3-4-defensive-linemen-2008-2010/
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 20, 2011 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't
Mind SIGNING Daryn Colledge from the packers to play at G for us…. i feel like we have the worst LG and RG duo in the league :(
I can agree with that....
if we ended up with Williams, Monty, Licht, Yanda, Brown I wouldn’t be hugely pissed (I do admittedly get mixed up on Licht/Monty and which one was the true center, so switch those two if it makes more sense). I think we could do much better, but if we have a major upgrade at RG and Rabach is no longer starting then, well, I can live with that.
Unfortunately
I think we will have to live through another season of Rabach in our backfield.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
nor am I
but the 2012 draft, or 2012 FA could address that.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
I hope so,
but the fact that we might have an upgrade already on the roster, and are ignoring it bothers me…..don’t get me wrong on this next statement but, if we went with Williams, Monty, Licht, Heyer, Brown I think that would be a big upgrade from what we played last year, and we had all those players on the roster……not great, but better.
Heyer did have a good game at G
but I don’t think he’s kept this year(just my feelings). He has such heavy feet, and is not ideal for our ZBS.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
16-0
and going to the show. I think my kool-aid is a little stronger tonight.
by Wilmncskinsfan on Jul 20, 2011 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Love it.
Editor at Alligator Army - The Florida Gators Blog
The Florida Gators - The most despised team in all of college football - Which is fantastic.
I see us at 9-7
but with just as many close games as last year. A couple less Grossman fumbles and we’re in the Super Bowl. :3
by Andrew DeFrank on Jul 20, 2011 11:08 PM EDT reply actions
I know Parks called me a weenie for giving a W/L range guess before, but...
I’m feeling a bit more optomistic today over my previous prediction of either 5-11 or 6-10 record and now thinking a solid 9-7 record. Not great, but a big improvement over last year and maybe enough to squeak into Wildcard contention.
Does that count me in as a Kool-Aid drinker?
No.
A 2 or 3 game improvement is a realistic expectation when you factor in all of the things that contributed to us having a poor season last year. Landry was injured, McNabb sucked, we had no WR threats, and no ground game, especially while Torrain was injured. we were also transitioning to a 3-4.
I think in year 2 of the defense we’ll see a lot of improvement, especially with the addition of Atogwe, the return of Landry and the draft picks Jarvis Jenkins and Ryan Kerrigan. Our offense will be much improved thanks to the addition of players such as Hankerson and Helu. Rex Grossman and John Beck both know and are comfortable with the offense so we just have to give them time to get the ball to their weapons.
If we manage to grab a Guard (or center), Right Tackle, Nose Tackle, and a decent corner we’ll be looking at a solid 8-8 season at worst, a 10-6 season at best barring any injury.
by TheDeepBall on Jul 21, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The offense being much improved will depend on their moves in FA
Not the 3rd and 4th round of last years draft. And I think we’re all drinking the Kool-Aid when saying Grossman and Beck both know and are comfortable with the offense and just have to give them time. Even if they have those things, to me they’re still big question marks.
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 21, 2011 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I shouldn't say last YEARS draft
but you know what I meant
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 21, 2011 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s not guaranteed that any of these situations change:
Landry was injured,
Injuries happen.
McNabb sucked,
As will our QBs in 2011, most likely
we had no WR threats,
It’s entirely possible this is still true this year. We’re expecting a lot of Hankerson in this scenario
and no ground game, especially while Torrain was injured.
Our OL still sucks.
we were also transitioning to a 3-4.
And we still don’t have the DL to run this scheme, or even the LBs really.
Just saying. We’ve identified the problems from last year. Whether any of them are fixed this year is a complete unknown.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Jesus
Did you put some Night Train in your Kool-Aid or what? With your summation we should just preserve the team for 2012 and forfeit all our games this year.
Do you have ANY hope left?
that's just Smuts....
he is a good fan but doesn’t drink the kool-aid (he does fall off the wagon from time to time though, which is fun). Don’t look him in the eyes though, I think he has brainwashed Tiller.
Sad
So…what team ARE you going to root for this year?
Oh I'll be cheerin' the Skins
But I’m expecting… ZIPPY
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 21, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Assumptions that our problems from last year going to improve just b/c the calendar year changed are dumb.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
our team is much improved from last year....
we have major holes at very important positions, that is true. One thing I know about you is you are an “I’ll believe it when I see it” kind of guy, that I respect. However you also preach " build through the draft" ….now we have a shit-ton of talented young guys and you wax on how unproven they are.
Right. Improving is a two step process.
1. Draft.
2. Draft well.
(3. fill in FA holes as needed)
In years past we couldn’t even get to step 1. Now we can, so let’s see if Shanny can do step 2.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
exactly.....
and we will see what step deaux brings this year.
Competitive and contender are words that get thrown around a lot.
“will we be competitive?” that does not even mean “will we win?” it just means we are not a joke.
“Contenders?” for what? the Super Bowl? not yet….the division? doubt it, but we will be competitive in the division, all three of the other teams have their own issues right now. “for the playoffs?”….eh maybe, I think we will be on the contender board fairly late into the season, but those last 5-6 games are a bear. We might be competitive against the Pats and Jets, but they might be fighting it out for the division themselves. (although a predict a pretty big slide for the Jet’s organization, not enough solids and too much swagger.
Just to take the air out of everyones balloon
This is what our defense would look like in 2011 if we ran the 4-3 like we should be:
CB – FA
DE – B. Orakpo
LB – R. McIntosh
DT – J. Jenkins FS – O. Atogwe
LB – L. Fletcher
DT – A. Haynesworth (ehh, idealistic) SS – L. Landry
LB – P. Riley?
DE – R. Kerrigan
CB – D. Hall
Does that not give everyone a chub? The thought of Orakpo, Kerrigan, and Fletcher playing their natural positions, Landry remaining at SS, and the possible resigning of McIntosh who is a solid 4-3 LB but is prolly gone because of his role in the 3-4.
Shanahan argues that the switch to the 3-4 is because of his belief in applying pressure and forcing turnovers…. With that front 4 in my opinion, the pressure would be there, and that’d lead to turnovers… Hell scrap Haynesworth and plug in someone else.
God if only our coaching staff knew how to utilize personnel like I do… Why am I not at Redskins Park…..?
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 21, 2011 3:26 AM EDT reply actions
Yes - saddest words in the English language "what might have been"
I said over a year ago that Shanahan was risking the season and his job on the switch to the 3-4. That is, doing it without the right players (and neutralizing his best player) and with a coach who was not really expert in it. And for no really good reason – the 3-4 is fine and can be effective, maybe even better than the 4-3 with the right players, but it is not, on its own, definitely better – more a matter of degree and emphasis. A terrible mistake, born of hubris, thinking he was smarter than he was.
If I read a headline saying the Redskins are switching back
I’m going to do backflips off my bed.
Presuming Haslett can call it, which we believe he can, I would immediately give us 3 more wins this season. whether that be 3 more wins from the 4 or 5 I’m predicting for this season… well…. who knows….
I will NOT be optimistic with this team anymore, they have to start showing me something. Hankerson for example, has done SHITE, and the mass majority of Redskins fans are anointing him our No. 1 for years to come. WHile I hope that happens, I can’t help but ask why he fell to the 3rd……. Many fall, few show they shouldn’t have.
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
We are looking at truly one of the worst rosters in the NFL.
Whether in talent or potential.
Not to mention one of the worst QB stables as well.
This is objectively true.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
by smutsboy1 on Jul 21, 2011 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You could be right (note Tiller's analysis above) but I am more optimistic
I think FA will help a lot. I rate the offense a 3 or 4 now, 5 after FA, The defense a 5 now, a 6 or 7 after FA. A 5 and 7 against a weak schedule ought to yield 9 or 10 wins (which you can also get with a game by game prediction). If they totally blow the FA, I’d still see 6 wins – no worse that last year – because of Shanahan’s coaching ability. We’ll see – dying to play the games.
Yeah I'm very curious about FA.
I don’t know how active Shanny will be. And I’m not sure how good a lot of the available players actually are.
Also, I think calling this defense average or better is a stretch. Ditto the offense.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I love ya Donnio
but 10 wins???? Really? You can’t win in this league without a good QB, and good talent around him. We have neither.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
Or playing schemes that don't match your personnel
You know what… GIVIN’ UP ON THINKIN’ SHANNY KNOWS WHAT HE’S DOING
This post didn’t make me more optimistic, it made me more pessimistic and hollow about this team and season
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 21, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's pause for a second
“We have neither.”
Yes our QB situation is grave, however on your second point, given the moves we made in the draft at RB/WR I’m not sure we can say with certainty that the QB won’t be surrounded by talent. Ryan Torain was a beast last year when healthy, Helu could be a great find by Shanny, Hankerson could be a monster, and we could add more weapons through free agency.
It's unknown whether we have talent on offense.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Cooley
And of course I forgot to mention Cooley, one of the bes receiving TEs in the game.
If we have to count our TE as our best weapon(which he is)
you know we are in serious trouble
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
Cooley is not our best weapon....
at this point I don’t think I need to look up Santana’s numbers last year and post them.
You know what positions we're good at
TE and Safety
Everything else could be uprgraded
I would argue Orakpo but I think he’s being misused, ever since he got here he’s been misused. LB, Fletcher’s not going to be around forever, needs to start being looked at.
by Dammit Cerrato... on Jul 21, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Torian is ok(wouldn't call him a beast - That would be Adrian Peterson)
Hankerson COULD be a monster, but how many rookie WR’s come out in their rookie year to be a MONSTER. Helu COULD be good, but he COULD be a bust.
And finally, NO QB or O-LINE
Too many could’s to be that optimistic
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
I agree
But I’m not wiling to go as far to say the QB won’t be surrounded by talent just yet. That’s going to play out in the next several weeks.
We could have some nice talent to build around for our future
but the 2012 QB, not any on our current roster, will benefit from that.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
It seems to me, looking around the league and even in our division, first year WR’s have stepped up to the plate and delivered. Just not for our team.
Now this is me being very negative, but I feel like we haven’t been able to completely develop players to their full potential when other teams seem to get more out of less.
"You're fucking out!"
Well, I assume they'll get a top NT and keep Carlos or his equal, thus adding
an NT, Atogwe, Kerrigan and Jenkins to the D, with a year of experience in the 3-4. Slightly above average, 6 or 7, doesn’t seem outlandish.
On offense, I assume they will add at least one and probably two top guys to the O-line. Rex can run the offense and will have a few more weapons than last year. A low average, 4 or 5, seems doable.
Going down the schedule I see 9 wins (3 div, AZ, @Car, @Buf, SF, @Sea, Minn) and 5 losses (3div, NE, NYJ), with two important road “swing games” – @Stl, @Mia. Lose both for 9-7, split 10-6. Sweeping would make up for going 2-4 in the division.
Vegas paints a grimmer picture, making us favorites in only about 4 games, but mostly by small spreads – two or three points. So, you pays your money and takes your chances.
Free Agency
Scenario 1 (Kool-Aid scenario):
NT: A solid replacement for Haynesworth. No need to break the bank, but somebody who can at least hold their ground at the point of attack.
C: If we start the season with Rabach at Center it’s going to be a long season of Rabach stepping on the foot of the QB to end promising drives. Any C who can hold their ground without stepping back into the bucket at the snap will do.
QB: Veteran QB, preferably Matt Hasselback, if only to hold the clipboard and mentor Beck and whomever we draft at QB in 2012. Hasselback could also be a nice backup QB at this point in his career.
CB: Worth breaking the bank for a top cover corner, and we need one desperately.
WR: I’m okay with signing Santana Moss, but I would consider it a huge victory if we could obtain Sidney Rice. I could see Hankerson and Sidney Rice as a very solid combination for years to come. Rice is entering the prime of his career while santana, sad to say, is past his.
HB/FB: UDFA Mario Fannin. I’m a big fan of this guy. He has size, straight line speed, hands, blocking, and could help us on special teams if nothing else. I think he could steal Keiland Williams spot, and I have him graded above Evan Royster in all categories except agility. He is versatile in that he can offer depth at both the HB and FB positions, and that is needed with Mike Sellers back there.
IF (emphasis added) we strike FA gold at all of these positions I could see us going 8-8 or better.
Scenario 2 (Typical Redskin Scenario):
Skins are stuck with:
1) Rabach stepping on the QB’s feet to kill promising drives
2) Mike Sellers at FB with very little depth.
3) Decline in 32-year old Santana Moss’ production/value.
4) A below average nose tackle busting his ass while Fat Albert laughs his ass off and counts his money on the sideline
5) Subpar CBs getting beat on double moves consistently for big plays.
Hopfully ShannAllen can eliminate this second scenario through free agency.
The most likely scenario is a hybrid of these two. Which in my mind leads us to a record of anywhere from 6-8 wins.
I'm ok with your 1st scenerio
but where are our guards, and RT? Not on board with Hass at all.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
Agreed
G and RT would be high priorities as well. I went for what I felt was the weakest link on our offensive line last year, and that was Rabach. When your Center gets dominated it doesn’t matter what your guards and tackles do.
I think we can have an average C(like Licht)
if we have two solid G’s next to him.
I got Tiger Blood running through my veins!
I'll take just about anything
Over Rabach at this point. I’ve seen enough.
It took me an hour to read all of these comments and
All of them (well, MOST anyway) made sense. However, with all of the non-kool aid drinkers out there, I like the fact that you made a huge batch, chef! Stranger things have happened than a team everyone thought was terrible having the light bulb go on and doing better than expected. Who really knows at this point since we’ve had no off-season, no free agency, no practices, etc. on which to base predictions. As long as the team changes personnel to some degree – and we know that will happen – there is a chance it can be better. With an infusion of depth in areas of need, the stars could align, AH could depart, Shanahan could leave his ego at home and Redskins Nation will be cheering the B & G to .550+ wins.
I say keep the kool-aid coming. I needed a sugar rush anyway!

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