The other day I wrote a post detailing 3 Bold Predictions for the Redskins come draft weekend. The third of those predictions was that the Redskins will trade back out of the first round and stockpile picks in the 2nd-4th rounds. Now when I posted that I left it open ended without much discussion on how this could be done. I wanted to go back to the topic, and address some potential ways it could happen and begin the debate as to whether or not it is a smart move for the Redskins.
Now since I will use the Trade Value Chart for the baseline in determining value for these picks and what fair deals can be made, I wanted to address a misconception I feel is out there regarding the chart. For one thing the chart is simply a baseline and not 100% gospel. Trades are dictated primarily on, need, value and money. The trade value chart is just a place to start at and not always the determining factor in whether or not someone made a bad deal or not. And while most people will say that you don't get as much value as the chart dictates that isn't always the case. Take for instance the Ravens last year who traded their 1st round pick (25) to the Broncos for a 2nd (43), 3rd (70), and 4th (114). According to the chart they gave up 720 pts. but received 776 points in return. While the 56 points might not seem like much, it holds the value of a mid-late 4th round pick. And the year before the Patriots traded the 26th overall pick and a late 5th rounder for a 2nd and two 3rd rounders. What New England gave up was worth 727.5 pts, but they received 890 pts worth in return.
It should be noted that both of the above deals, as well as others were made at a time when the bonuses for 1st round picks (even late first rounders) were high enough to the point that they negated some of the value in trading up. While the labor situation is still quite murky, one thing that both sides seemed to be agreed upon is the implementation of a rookie salary scale, which will eliminate the high bonuses that in the past ate up part of the value of these draft day deals.
The Redskins road to trade back out of the first round is a three part process I believe and one that is definitely feasible. I'll admit that there is some fantasy involved in these proposals, but the 'unbelievable aspect' doesn't come from these deals being preposterous or bad trades for the other team, but rather questioning whether or not the Redskins brass has the guts to make a bold move to hopefully better the organization.
Redskins trade the 10th pick (valued at 1,300 pts.) to the Rams for 14th pick (1,100 pts.) and the 78th pick (3rd round, 200 pts.): 1,300 pts.-1,300 pts.:
This would be a neutral trade based on the chart, and one that makes a lot of sense for both teams. The Redskins regain a mid-3rd rounder after losing it in the Jamaal Brown trade. While the Rams can jump up and ensure themselves a top flight receiver (A.J. Green or Julio Jones) for their young quarterback.
The Redskins trade the 14th pick (1,100 pts.) to the Patriots for the 28th pick (660 pts.), 60th pick (2nd round 300pts.), and the 92nd pick (3rd round, 132 pts.) 1,100 pts-1,092:
This one is in a slight favor of the Patriots but really it is negligible. Now I realize that most people assume that New England will do what it normally does and trade back, stockpiling picks this year and next, but I wouldn't be so sure. For one thing they have 6 picks in the top 92 this year, sure they could trade one or two away for next year, or add extra picks. But considering the fact that they have come up short in recent years I see them looking to move up instead of down. They could use some star talent as they already have quality players at every position. By making this deal New England would have two top 17 picks, and still have 4 picks in the top 74. And if they wanted they could always trade back from their pick at the top of the 2nd round and reacquire an extra 3rd. The Patriots window is closing as Brady isn't getting any younger, so adding impact guys make a lot of sense for them.
From the Redskins point of view this adds an extra 2nd and 3rd to their coffers to hopefully fill their needs. Even if the Redskins stop here they will have added a 2nd and two 3's for moving back 18 spots.
Now some will say I'm ripping the 49ers off here, but as I showed before this is the area of the draft where the team trading back usually 'wins' when it comes to the trade value chart. This trade would be very similar to the one the Ravens made last year on draft day, and could be very plausible to San Francisco. If they miss out on a quarterback at the top of the first round, I'm guessing they will be one of the most aggressive teams at trading back up for a Ponder/Locker type. San Francisco's pick goes to the back of the 6-10 teams for round two. While they had the 7th pick in round 1, they won't pick until 13th in the 2nd round. At which point probably most of the quarterbacks will be gone. The 49ers also start draft weekend with the most overall picks at 12, and while the majority of them are late in the draft, giving up 3 picks for 1 hear doesn't bankrupt the 49ers on draft weekend.
For the Redskins they might not be able to land all three picks as maybe the 49ers insist on only giving up their 5th rounder instead or offer a 3rd or 4th in 2012 instead. Either way I feel very confident this is one area (esp. if the team is trading up for a QB) that the Redskins can extract more value than what the chart would dictate.
In the end the Redskins end up with still just two picks in the top 50, but now instead of not picking again until 155, the Redskins would have 4 extra picks in top 100, and should even be able to squeeze out an extra 4th or 5th rounder in the deal. While this might look like a quantity over quality approach, there is no reason it can't be both.
If the Redskins are smart with these extra selections (i.e. don't draft 3 pass catchers in the 2nd round) then they can add quality players at 6 positions as opposed to just two prior to these deals. It might be hard to admit at times, but up and down the Redskins roster they have below average talent at key positions. While these picks won't fill every need, they will lay the groundwork for the Redskins to return to greatness.
Steve Shoup has been a Redskins fan his entire life and dreams of the day they get back to the glory days of his youth. In addition to his regular piece on Hogs Haven, you can find his daily writings at Fanspeak.com.