A big part of the discussions on whether or not to trade up for a QB is based on the long term effect on the team. In general teams (Patriots) seem to get ahead in the long run by trading down for more picks, not by trading up but can Shanahan afford to do that? I have to ask myself, how patient can Snyder be?
I think we have to keep in mind that Shanahan & Allen never used the word "rebuilding" so in Sndyer isn't in that mindset (despite the fact that we really are rebuilding). Shanahan went 6-10 his first year and this year he's going to be between 5 -11 and 7 - 9. How many losing seasons does Shanahan get before Snyder pulls the plug?
Since Norv Turner, Gibbs 2.0 is the only Redskins coach who got more than 2 years to produce a winning team.
I didn't mind in the least bit when Spurrier and Zorn were shown the door as I think they were horribly ineffective head coaches but I think we're on the right track now with Shanahan and Allen. Or at the very least we're on a better track than we were on prior to Snyder hiring Allen & Shanahan. It seems to me that most of us are in favor of Shanahan if for no other reason than that we need to demonstrate that a Sb winning head coach doesn't get treated like dirt. If Snyder were to fire Shanahan now then he'd have a nearly impossible job of hiring a decent head coach.
So how many more years can Shanahan go before having a winning season? I think Snyder will be expecting a winning team next year, or at least an 8-8 season. If that doesn't happen I think Snyder might fire Shanahan but I also think that Snyder might give Shanahan 1 more losing season and then expect winning seasons. That's the most slack I see Snyder giving Shanahan. So at the very least Shanahan needs to have a winning team either enxt year or the year after that. With our current QB situation that just isn't going to happen. So how does Shanahan get a decent QB? I'm not talking about a HOF QB like Montanna, Marino, etc. But I think we at least have to have a "good" QB like we had with Rypien, Theismann or Brad Johnson (who admitedly was better with other teams). How can Shanahan NOT draft a QB this year? And the QB is going to have to pan out to be a decent QB so planning on getting the next Tom Brady in the 6th round isn't going to be his plan.
What would you do? You've got this draft or maybe next years draft to get a QB. if you draft him this year he only has to win 7 games and then win 8 games the following year but if you wait until the following draft he needs to win 8 games as a rookie.
What would I do? I'd check out the price for Luck. I think he's worth two 1st round picks plus some later round picks (maybe a 3rd and a 4th). if the cost is more than that I check out the cost of moving up to draft RGIII. First I'd make sure he even plans on going to the NFL. I think it's likely but you have to do your homeowork. If I can get RGIII for a reasonable price then I pick him up. If not I'm down to the bigger gambles and of those I'd consider Foles, Weeden and Tannehill. Now the big gamble, can I trade back and still get my QB? I don't think I'd risk my job on that - I'm drafting him with my 1st round pick even if others think I'm reaching.
You might ask, what about FA QBs? I don;t see one worth pursuing. I don't want to be the guy stuck with a Kolb or Cassel. Most of these FA QBs are at best a good backup and not starting material and they often look better than they really are when they play for a really good team (Patriots, last years Eagles and the Packers) and they come in for a game or two and put up decent stats. So I have no interest in the FA QB market.
What would you do to avoid getting fired?