Here the way I look at it, the odds of getting a decent starting QB go up dramatically when you use a 1st round pick.
I looked at all of the QBs who have thrown for > 1000 yards this season:
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
UDFA |
|
|
Cam Newton |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
Matt Ryan |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
Alex Smith |
1 |
|
3 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
Matt Moore |
UDFA |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
UDFA |
|
|
1 |
Average draft round = 2.6 (I gave the UDFAs an eight for computing the average)
Take out the QBs who probably won't be leading their teams next season (John Skelton, Matt Moore and Curtis Painter) and it drops to 2.1563
Break down of starting QBs by when they were drafted
|
Round |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
UDFA |
|
# drafted |
21 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
21 out of the top 35 QBs were drafted in the first round. That is not a fluke.
How many of these later round guys would you really want to lead your offense (as in, you think they can win a Super Bowl)?
Brees, Dalton, Jackson, Kolb, McCoy, Schaub, Brady, Hasselbeck, Painter, Fitzpatrick, Cassel, Romo, Moore, Skelton.
I'd only go for Brees, Brady, and Schaub (maybe Hasselbeck in his prime).
But let's go back and look at the QBs who have been drafted:
Starting in 2000 (When Brady was drafted) here are the number of QBs drafted by round
|
Round |
# drafted |
# somewhat successful |
% Successful |
|
|
1st: |
32 |
25 |
0.78125 |
all but Ramsey, Carr, Boller, Losman, Young, Leinart, Russell |
|
2nd |
14 |
3 |
0.214285714 |
Kolb, Jackson, Brees |
|
3rd |
15 |
1 |
0.066666667 |
Schaub |
|
4th |
13 |
1 |
0.076923077 |
Orton |
|
5th |
25 |
1 |
0.04 |
Feeley (it's a stretch but live with it) |
|
6th |
31 |
2 |
0.064516129 |
Brady, Bulger |
|
7th |
25 |
1 |
0.04 |
Cassel |
It's a simplified look and we could argue forever about who is and isn’t “successful” but the principle doesn't change - Higher picks mean a better chance of success. We need a QB very badly.
Now let the ripping begin...
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