FanPost

Why use a 1st round pick on a QB? Here's why


Here the way I look at it, the odds of getting a decent starting QB go up dramatically when you use a 1st round pick.

I looked at all of the QBs who have thrown for > 1000 yards this season:

Drew Brees

2

Tom Brady

6

Aaron Rodgers

1

Eli Manning

1

Matthew Stafford

1

Philip Rivers

1

Tony Romo

UDFA

Cam Newton

1

Ben Roethlisberger

1

Matt Ryan

1

Joe Flacco

1

Ryan Fitzpatrick

7

Josh Freeman

1

Mark Sanchez

1

Andy Dalton

2

Colt McCoy

3

Matt Hasselbeck

6

Alex Smith

1

Matt Schaub

3

Tarvaris Jackson

2

Rex Grossman

1

Michael Vick

1

Jay Cutler

1

Sam Bradford

1

Kevin Kolb

2

Matt Moore

UDFA

Blaine Gabbert

1

Carson Palmer

1

Matt Cassel

7

Christian Ponder

1

Curtis Painter

6

Tim Tebow

1

Jason Campbell

1

John Skelton

UDFA

Donovan McNabb

1

Average draft round = 2.6 (I gave the UDFAs an eight for computing the average)

Take out the QBs who probably won't be leading their teams next season (John Skelton, Matt Moore and Curtis Painter) and it drops to 2.1563

Break down of starting QBs by when they were drafted

Round

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

UDFA

# drafted

21

4

2

0

0

3

2

3

21 out of the top 35 QBs were drafted in the first round. That is not a fluke.

How many of these later round guys would you really want to lead your offense (as in, you think they can win a Super Bowl)?

Brees, Dalton, Jackson, Kolb, McCoy, Schaub, Brady, Hasselbeck, Painter, Fitzpatrick, Cassel, Romo, Moore, Skelton.

I'd only go for Brees, Brady, and Schaub (maybe Hasselbeck in his prime).

But let's go back and look at the QBs who have been drafted:

Starting in 2000 (When Brady was drafted) here are the number of QBs drafted by round

Round

# drafted

# somewhat successful

% Successful

1st:

32

25

0.78125

all but Ramsey, Carr, Boller, Losman, Young, Leinart, Russell

2nd

14

3

0.214285714

Kolb, Jackson, Brees

3rd

15

1

0.066666667

Schaub

4th

13

1

0.076923077

Orton

5th

25

1

0.04

Feeley (it's a stretch but live with it)

6th

31

2

0.064516129

Brady, Bulger

7th

25

1

0.04

Cassel

It's a simplified look and we could argue forever about who is and isn’t “successful” but the principle doesn't change - Higher picks mean a better chance of success. We need a QB very badly.

Now let the ripping begin...

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