ENOUGH...We Are Drafting a QB. Here's Why.
by DavidDunn on Nov 1, 2011 12:55 PM EDT
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I am not even going to take the time to attempt to refute the very strange position that I have seen being espoused recently on this site the last few days regarding what position should be focused on in the first round of this year's draft. Clearly the Redskins trevails have caused people to start thinking pretty oddly. Who can blame people for being gun shy and willing to abandon what is considered conventional wisdom? I understand that being conventional isn't always right, but this is not one of those times.
We are in a passing league. QBs take time to develop. It is virtually impossible to turn a team's QB around via free agency unless wild circumstances occur like the Rivers/Brees situation. Therefore, we have to take the appropriate steps forward to begin our QB transition. Anything less would be player personnel malpractice. And will likely cause this regime their jobs.
Instead of using subjective arguments, I will simply show you the last 8 drafts top 5 picks. I use the top five as they clearly demonstrate teams that have had more than one need and lacked mostly lacked a franchise QB.
What you will clearly notice is that those who passed up a QB to sure up some other position, still grappled or are still grappling with the fact that they don't have a QB to support the other talent that they sometimes hit on, or even worse, talent they missed.
Yes, there were some misses on QBs, but that is not dispositive of the fact that they needed to select a QB. They simply picked the wrong one.
We may also pick the wrong one, especially with our current regime's record of QB evaluation. But what is clear from the evidence is that in the vast majority of the cases, bypassing a QB to fill other needs ultimately has not had the effect many are projecting here. You can not turn into a winner without a QB. We know we don't have one. Logic says, let 's get one and move on.
The last 8 drafts prior to this year are below.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
The point of this is not to evaluate peoples' draft picks. As a matter of fact, I see few true all out misses here (I am looking at you Jamarcus) The point is every one of these teams either could use a QB or had just drafted one highly in the prior 1-2 years (except for GB). The results:
You will notice Oakland, Cleveland, Miami, Washington, Detroit, Tampa, KC, NYJ and St Louis enjoy having high draft picks and until they decided that a QB was a good idea, they continued to have the opportunity to have their names called early. Picking Jake Long, Chris Long, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards and the like (thought of as potential elite Impact players) was nice, but they did absolute nothing for a team in the NFL without a franchise QB, elite or not. Big Ben and Joe Flacco may not be elite, but they fill the role of QB effectively, and were well worth a first round pick as you can not continue to meander in mediocrity waiting for the perfect QB to fall into you lap.
It is time to do what has to be done. The long term plan is not a long term plan without a QB, no matter how many Trent Williams, Laron Landrys, Ryan Kerrigans, Brian Orakpos and Carlos Rogers you draft in the top 20. In case anyone hasn't noticed, they can't get you over the hump without a QB, and many walk before the team has a chance to reap the rewards.
There is only one logical move for the Redskins in the first round this year with our current QBs and opportunities to fill other positions via other picks, trades, or FA.
Select a QB.
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I'm sorry but I really don't get what this is trying to prove?
The QB’s you listed are Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and Mark Sanchez (and Sam Bradford)
Of the 10 QB’s you mentioned 4 of them are pretty much failed picks (Smith, Young, Russell and Sanchez…though i guess the book is still open on him). Sure Smith is doing well now, but he’s a game manager type of QB, and it is his 7th year in the NFL. That might be more successful than say a Rex Grossman, but he didn’t exactly set the world on fire. That team is successful because of their defensive picks and offensive line picks in the last 7 years, not to mention some mid and late round picks (Frank Gore anyone).
Three other quarterbacks, Palmer, Rivers and Manning sat at least 10 games as a rookie (Palmer 1 whole season, Rivers 2 whole seasons). Of the remaining you have Matt Ryan who’s been good, but isn’t a top 10 QB, and Stafford and Bradford who maybe can and will be that. But even after those teams drafted those guys, it wasn’t until the Lions started focusing more on the O-line and defense that they took off (hint hint Rams). I’m not saying they were the wrong picks, but they also aren’t the be all end all answer.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
My point is that we are picking a QB...
whether people want to or not…who knows if the QB will turn out to be a good one or not…the point is until a franchise picks a QB…they meander in mediocrity…I can assure you the Shanahans will not be willing to linger around another year rearranging deck chairs on the titanic…
yes but my point is that the success rate isn't that great, and if we do get a good one we better be sitting him.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I have no problem with sitting him
the point of this post is that we will be picking a QB in the first round. Depending on the QB, he may play immediately or later. But we will not be rounding out other chess pieces and looking for a hidden gem in another round. As can be seen above, the team that tempt fate in that manner have a very bad track record. You have to keep get an acceptable QB in house before even thinking about being a viable contender.
I kinda disagree with that though
1. most of those guys above aren’t contenders, just the Chargers and Giants are really annual contenders. And the Chargers were a playoff team under Brees while Rivers was sitting. Their being a contender has a lot to do with the entire team they put together and not just one player. They downgraded from Brees to Rivers at QB, but the pieces around him started getting better so the team got better. The Falcons have gone to the playoffs twice now under Ryan, but look at the numbers they are good, but it is far from Matt Ryan making this team a contender. Sure a John Beck would kill their season, but what if they had a Jason Campbell, or a Kyle Orton, or a Matt Cassell?
2. We can draft a QB, and that isn’t really the argument that most people are having, what they are saying is we need those other pieces as well. If we have to trade up for a 1st round QB we are robbing Peter to pay Paul. I think we probably are best suited to trade back and try to get Tannehill.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I am not making an argument for trading up
i am arguing against trading down or not even picking a QB in the first round. That is my main point.
But to address your other point, the evidence I am pointing out here is that no team that consistently skipped over a QB when provide the opportunity got out of the doldrums until they bit the bullet and drafted one. This in turn gave them at least an opportunity by making them playoff contenders with in 2 years.
The ones that did not adequately address it are still paying the price.
Cleveland, Arizona, Miami, and Washington.
Everyone else eventually got around to getting a QB before making the turn.
i don't know i just think that sample is skewed
4 drafts prior to taking Palmer the Bengals took Akili Smith, 7 drafts before Ryan, Atlanta took Vick, 7 drafts before Stafford the Lions took Harrington. None of those guys worked out and they’re team had to go back to the drawing board.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
not dispositive
Oakland picked Jamarcus…
Just because you make a bad pick, doesn’t mean you don’t make the pick. This proves my point. Sometimes, even when the choices are bad, a team is forced based on circumstances to select a QB.
The Redskins are now in that position. That is all that I am saying. If you look at how NFL drafts play out, the coaching cycle, and how teams improve, they always pick a QB when no viable option exists. ALWAYS. And then they find out if it was the right decision. Teams that decide to do something else continue on the bottom until they bite the bullet.
But yes, time always tells whether the decision was good or bad.
So if we had the 15th overall pick...
you’d say draft a QB because its the first round? You can’t draft for the sake of drafting. At 15, we might be able to get Tannehill. Or, we could get a perrenial starter on the Oline and get Foles in the second. Is there a major difference between the two? Hell, we could probably get Case Keenum in the 3rd and with 2 starters drafted ahead of him and still not have much value lost. The top of the QB class is definitely better than years past, and i’d love to get luck or jones. I’m not sure we’ll be a top 5 pick, and do you take the 4th best qb in the draft if you’re picking at 8 or do you draft the better talent?
Yup...I would
Waiting around for a QB is a fools errand…
Will we be guaranteed to get it right…maybe not…but I can tell you that the Shanahans won’t be around to find out whether it was the right decision or not..
Which means we are selecting a QB because anything else means another rebuild year…
it ain’t happening…
I have a hard time taking the 25th best player in the draft in the top 5...
just because he’s a QB. I do get that we are in desperate need of a quarterback though. I’m sure most people here would be fine taking RG3 in the top 15. All it’s going to take is for him to have a really bad showing and then all of his flaws will be under the microscope and he’ll fall to the late 1st and early 2nd. It happens every year. Maybe we can be lucky enough to get the guy we want in a reasonable position. I’m not against a QB at all though, I’m just more of a value added kinda guy. In this QB class specific, i think there are a bunch of guys that could make it in this league. I don’t see a whole lot of difference between 4-8. Why take #4 in the top 5 if you could trade back a few times, add 2 extra starters on the oline by taking #6. Again, this is specific to this class because of the talent.
Whatever we do…we need to add some future picks so we can get barry sanders jr. in 2014
I think the problem is
They seem to think that draft position makes the player. It doesn’t.
Whether you pick RG3 at pick 4 or pick 30, you’re still getting the same player. This is a deep QB class. We don’t have to get one of the top 2.
No one thinks draft position makes a player
That is a strawman.
The point is the Shanahans are not in a position to take that chance, for someone like Josh McDaniels to swoop in and take a flyer on “their guy” between 4 and 30. Or even the flyers on Locker and Ponder this year. They don’t have the political capital left.
That is the point. They don’t have the leeway to play games. They will not be trading way back to hope they get a first round QB. A few picks backwards, which GB or Det or Atl or STL in the middle of the picks…they could do that. But they aren’t trading back 15-20 picks on the hope of getting someone.
Bet your bottom dollar, whether or not that is your preferred approach.
Josh McDaniels?
You mean the guy whose current QB is the #1 pick Sam Bradford? Um, no.
The point is there is always more than one guy. A lot of times there are 3 or 4 guys, particularly in this draft. It’s not like they lose face for trading back before getting a QB, as long as they get a QB. We don’t know who they’re actually fixated on, so the fact that they do or don’t get whoever that is is beside the point as far as “political capital”. If they trade back and “Their guy” gets taken, they move on to their next guy. This is the idea behind a big board. We will never know for sure whether Locker and Ponder were Shanahan’s top two choices, and speculating on that notion is a lost cause, just like we will never know if Griffin or Barkley are their guys. They might have their hearts set on Tannehill or Foles. If that’s their guy, do they make a MAJOR reach to get him at pick 4 or do they trade back because there’s a high probability those two will be there at the end of the first round?
Frankly I would be livid if they picked either of those two with a top 5 pick, or even Griffin.
You can have a hard time...I can dislike it.
It doesn’t matter. We are forced into the situation. Logic is not fully at play. There are business influences, from Snyder, and job wise for the Shanahans. They no longer have an option to play fantasy football and just do BPA.
The die is cast, whether we like it or not.
And again, I say take a look at the teams who played the waiting game because of they didn’t think the value was right. They had a bunch of pro bowlers waiting around for a QB, and then lost the players before the team turned the corner.
Is it fair? No. But it is reality.
Trading back from 4 to 6 isn’t really what I am referring to. They will still take a QB in the first round. My point is they are not trading back and waiting around until the second round take a QB or waiting a year, while filling up other supposed holes.
i get what you are saying now that it is a pre-determined fact
and I agree that likelihood is extremely high. I thought you were arguing that it was truly the ‘right move’
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
lots of failed picks in those lists, bud.
Are you saying we’ll have a top 5 pick? Because if we do, it’s a great opportunity to trade back not once but two or 3 times. We could have an entirely different starting lineup on offense with the number of picks we would acquire.
we cant trade back
If we have a top 5 pick. We have to get a signal caller, and we can get a good one with a top 5 pick.
John Denver was a musical genius
by Tiller56 on Nov 1, 2011 5:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
what if it goes Luck/Jones 1 and 2, Do you want them to take Barkley?
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Y'all need to hope on the Barkley train with me! There are plenty of spots! WOOOO WOOOO
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
I'm on that one too, don't worry...
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
I hope your kidding
About there being a Tannehill train. No way is he a top 10 pick, and I personally wouldnt touch him in the 1st round.
Major project in the NFL.
This is the same thought process that has landed us where we are year after year.
The only way I would even consider supporting Tannehill or Files, is if we missed Luck and Jones, but somehow got Kalil. Then, and only then, would I be ok with getting a guy like these two with a later pick. But alas, I can’t see this happening either, as I see Kalil being a top 3 pick.
John Denver was a musical genius
by Tiller56 on Nov 2, 2011 8:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How did you get Top 10 pick out of that?
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
you were on the Locker train, and he did end up being a top pick despite being a major project
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
yes with Tannehill being better
seriously what is the knock on Tannehill? He only has a good arm not a great arm? So what at least he can throw to his receivers, and deliver accurate passes on the move. Tannehill is a bit more raw, but why is that a bad thing it means he has more upside, since he’s only been a QB again for a year (at this point). Imagine what he’ll be 2 years from now.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
by Steve Shoup on Nov 2, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see your mini-me has yet again rec'd another of your comments
Anyways, NO!
Arm strength, development, ability to progress through reads. They are both good athletes, thats where the comparisons end.
FWIW, I dont have anything against Tannehill. I just don’t think he anywhere near NFL ready, and when he gets NFL ready, he’ll be average.
I have watched QB for the last 7-8 years, and I can tell you that the following QB’s have more talent, had more in college, and will all be far better in the pro’s than Tannehill:
Stafford
Freeman
Ryan
Flacco
Manning
Rivers
Bradford
Cutler
Newton
Rodgers
Big Ben
I’ll put Tannehill in the catagory with these guys:
McCoy
Dalton
Sanchez
Ponder
And I was not a fan of any of the above.
John Denver was a musical genius
haha
just curious where is Locker on that list?
I don’t deny there is a risk, but I think if you let Tannehill sit like Palmer, I think you could have something special. His accuracy, touch, ability to move around the pocket are all pretty advanced. His delivery is clean and his decision making is good. He’ by no means perfect, but he has a TON of upside. And could def. be in that top tier.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Locker hasn't played yet this season
but you know where I would put him based on ability alone.
All I’m saying about the future QB of the Redskins is: No more projects please!!!!
No more Patrick Ramsey’s, no more Jason Campbell’s. Just please, for once, give me someone who has the potential to be great. Now, more than anytime in the history of this storied franchise, we need this!
I’m simply not willing to settle for second tier anymore, and truthfully, thats where I view guys like Tannehill, and Foles. You know from our past conversations that I’m not a Barkley fan at all, but I’ll take him over Tannehill and Foles.
I take either Luck, Jones or Griffin. Besides those 3, I’ll pass, yet again.
John Denver was a musical genius
I didn't say a top 10 pick. I just said I want him.
If you read all of my posts everytime this subject comes up (which is only four times a day) I say trade back to late first or early second to get Tannehill, get more picks, and fill our Oline and D holes.
He might be a project but every game this year he has played better and better.
by 64ShagginWagon on Nov 2, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry
I have been without Power, Heat, Hot Water, Internet and cell service(besides what hit and miss signal I can occasionally get on my cell phone)football, and a home cooked meal since saturday.
It took me 1 1/2 hours to get into a Panera today, which is where I am posting this from.
My bad for not being able to follow your thought process 4x per day!
John Denver was a musical genius
damn that sucks man...hopefully you didn't make to much of an effort to watch that Skins game
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Naw
It was so bad up here, that there was absolutely no place to go for the game, unless I feld the state, and that was almost impossible, considering I could barely get out of our town due to all the downed trees, road closures, and downed power lines.
hell, they even cancelled haloween…………………and I had a great costume………………I was going as Parks!
John Denver was a musical genius
damn that sucks (though the weather prevented you from watching that travesty so I guess some good came out of it)
I also wished you could still go as Parks, that would be pretty funny
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I see Tannehill as being in the same class as Kaepernick...
if he’s taken in the first round, it will be a thursday night trade much like the jahvid best trade last year.
no thanks, i'll wait for a train who is faster and is on time more
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
The Foles Express!
orrrrrr, you can get on the GRIFFENdore train at post 13 1/2
harry potter anyone?
haha the faster and on time comment was for either Tannehill or RG III
but yeah Foles in the 2nd isn’t bad
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I would rather have Tannehill in the second then Foles
But I do like Foles as well
by 64ShagginWagon on Nov 1, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah the way i'm looking at it is we'd have to be picking early round 2 or the end of round 1 to get Tannehill
if he is sitting there to long someone will jump up to get him.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
you pick one and hope...
everyone’s job is on the line…it is up to them to evaluate correctly…you can’t tell me that they can’t find someone close to Dalton at a minimum in the top 5….
Lots of failed movies ...
let’s just make tv shows instead..
prevent defense prevents winning…
We have an urgent need for a QB. Waiting for Mr. Right to come along will allow another coach to find him.
The Shanahans will pick a QB. It is darn near a done deal.
this is what I don't get
it’s not about ‘waiting for mister right’ it is about not assuming Player X is ‘mister right’. I don’t have a problem picking a QB I have a problem picking one that isn’t any better than a guy you could get 15 picks later, or a round later.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
sometimes you are simply placed in a situation where you don't have
a choice.
But this franchise is now at the point due to prior decisions that our selection in the first round is predefined, whether we like it or not. They can’t take a chance hoping that there is some gem in a later round that someone won’t swing in and take prior to our pick. The Shanahans have made their bed. We just have to watch as they lay in it.
Maybe the next Deion Sanders is sitting there. But our regime can’t afford another year with Beck, Grossman on mediocre QB x. That is what happens when you trade away picks with a reasonable QB sitting right there in front of you.
what reasonable QB's have they really passed on?
They were rumored to want Mark Sanchez or Cutler in 2009 and wisely passed on them (or more than likely we had already given up too many additional assets that we couldn’t swing the deal). Alright we could have taken Freeman, but he was considered very raw, and while I like his upside, no way he is succeeding like he is with the talent we got. In 2009 there wasn’t a QB to take…and we stupidly traded and signed McNabb. This past year we gave up Gabbert for Kerrigan/Hankerson/Helu/Hurt. Yes we could have taken Ponder, and I really liked Ponder, but i’m fine with that deal.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
The Shanahans?
My post isn’t about what they did and whether the players moves were good. My point is they relied on McNabb, Grossman, and Beck. They decided against every QB in this draft. That is the bed they made.
Now, they have to pick one. Maybe that is the perfect strategy. Who knows. But the point is, they made the decisions that now force them to pick a QB.
i just meant in the reasonable time since we last drafted a QB in the first round
my point is we haven’t ‘passed on’ many guys, they were already taken or it has been proven to be the right call.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Mallett would have been a great choice in the 2nd
And I’ll bet anything the decision to pass on him will prove to be a poor one.
John Denver was a musical genius
by Tiller56 on Nov 2, 2011 8:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You've already lost enough Mallett bets.
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
Mallett would have been a great choice in the 2nd
And I’ll bet anything the decision to pass on him will prove to be a poor one.
John Denver was a musical genius
by Tiller56 on Nov 2, 2011 8:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
btw-there really are not that many failed picks...at most 5 or 7
with is 10-15 percent…not horrible..
what are you talking about?
Failed top 5 picks? or Failed 1st round QB picks?
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
Failed top 5 picks...
Obviously Jamarcus was a failed top pick. It happens. Bad evaluation. It wasn’t like people didn’t tell Al is was a bad move.
Same with Young, who actually did get a team moving in the right direction at the least. An example of what happens when you hamstring yourself.
If you want a QB, better get him early
Last year four QBs went in the first 12 picks plus one more three picks into the 2nd rd. Four of those five QBs are starting for their team with varying degrees of success. Teams are willing to reach to get the QB that they want, it’s the most important position on a football team & if we keep on waiting for that “can’t miss” franchise “perfect fit for the Shannys system” QB to fall into our laps we might have a lot more Sundays similar to the beatdown we just got from Buffalo. We need a QB & altho I would not reach for any other position, we need to find a good QB prospect in this upcoming draft & do whatever it takes for him to be wearing B & G next year, (& after we get him we need to develop him, surround him with players that suit his skill set & as fans be patient while that is being accomplished). IMO if we continue to wait we will continue to prolong our ineptitude.
by ENsDad27 on Nov 1, 2011 7:14 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
yes and no
yes QB’s are always hyped, but we’ve also seen some QB’s fall. It is also the position where supply and demand greatly influence where people get picked. With so many QB’s being taken last year early, and other teams filling their needs via trade there aren’t a ton of open spots available. Now some teams (Dallas, N.O. Pitt etc.) could look at a future replacement guy like how the Pats did last year with Mallet, they are more likely to wait for the 2-4 rounds to find them.
Outside of that there are only a few teams looking and one could decide to roll the dice with Matt Flynn or Kyle Orton/Jason Campbell type. I think you could see 3 maybe 4 go early, but after that it is likely crickets on that front for some time.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
ENS, you are 100% correct.
I hope people read, and take notice to your post. The lack of a true QB, and the lack of consistancy amongst our coaches is what truely has hurt this franchise over the last 2 decades.
This was the most truthful, thought out, intelligent comment I have read on HH in a while.
John Denver was a musical genius
by Tiller56 on Nov 2, 2011 8:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Question for you:
Why do the Bills, led by 7th rounder out of Harvard Ryan Fitzpatrick have a better record than Drew Brees and the Saints? For that matter, Why do the 49ers and Ravens have better records? Why do Andy Dalton and the Bengals have a better record than Phillip Rivers and the Chargers?
HINT: It’s not all about the QBs.
Are you kidding?
Philip Rivers is turning the ball over at an alarming rate right now. That’s why the Chargers are loosing. Ryan Fritzpatrick has finally got some consistancy with the Billls offense, and it is paying off.
Alex Smith is having the best season of his career. He’s not turning the ball over.
All these teams; their successes and failures, are directly tied to the QB spot.
John Denver was a musical genius
by Tiller56 on Nov 2, 2011 8:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
seriously?
Sure Rivers isn’t helping matters, but part of the reason for his turnovers is the increased pressure he is facing. And the fact that the D-line is playing subpar is hurting their run defense big time.
Alex Smith is having the best season of his career, but the reason San Fran is winning is b/c of their rushing attack and their defense. Smith is a distant 3rd in that department.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
by Steve Shoup on Nov 2, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Question for you
Did the Bills turnaround before or after they got a reasonable quarterback behind center?
And I am not even going to begin a discussion with you about Brees vs Fitzpatrick as to franchise value. Not even worth my time.
You continue to conflate the idea of draft position with the reality that the Shanahans have to pick a QB. The situations are not the same, and continuing to throw up strawman arguments that have nothing to do with our current situation does not help your argument. As a matter of fact, you are disproving your own argument by showing that QB play is critical. Put John Beck in Cincinnati or Buffalo and you can bet your bottom dollar that they wouldn’t be near their current records.
We had a chance this year and last to play the draft and develop game. We chose not to. So your personal preferences and maybe the front offices don’t come into play anymore.
They will choose a QB. And they will find out in 2 years if they still have jobs.
It is what it is.
BTW-In case you didn’t notice, Alex Smith was a #1 pick, in a year that he probably wasn’t the best available player based on score, proving my point once again that when the time to pick a QB comes around, it is going to happen. There is no way around it.
Not to mention this is a perfect example of the entire point of my post. We selected Carlos Rogers instead of Aaron Rodgers. And then, it is quite possible we THOUGHT we would get him at 24 because GB had their QB. You know what they say about the best laid plans. This is the quintessential draft proving almost all of my points. QB value is so much higher than other positions that it creates the need for stepping outside of BPA at times.
to be clearer
it is possible we held at 24 as Rodgers was falling thinking we could get him instead of moving up. I can’t imagine we graded JC over Rodgers.
And we likely considered Rodgers at 9, but decided to go by the board … we see how that worked out.
AND we ultimately still selected our QB in the first round.
We are going to pick a QB in round 1. The only question is which one.
honestly I disagree
we had obviously already passed on Rodgers once when we took Carlos Rogers, but it would have only taken a late round pick to move up to the spot ahead of the Packers (that is what the Raiders paid to move ahead of the Packers and they were a pick behind us). If we wanted him that bad then we should have made that deal.
Gibbs reportedly fell in love with Campbell and made the trade to move up in the first round 4 or 5 days before the draft, and at the time the Post, Times, ESPN etc. all linked Jason Campbell to the Redskins.
Now maybe Gibbs would have gotten voted down by Snyder since Rodgers was obviously the bigger name, but seriously outside of ownership interference it is hard to imagine that we take Rodgers.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
At the time, I am not sure that they believed GB
would take a GB with Favre still there.
I don’t think they really believed he would get snatched up.
I also don’t fully believe the JC story. I suspect it was cover when they didn’t get their guy, and panicked..
but we will never know quite honestly…
water under the bridge at this point…
yeah but the Campbell story came out days before the draft
they might have mentioned one or two other players that the Skins were looking at, but every reporter seemed to know Gibbs’ love of JC (which is very horrible drafting strategy). I remember hoping an praying that it was all a clever smoke screen, but being disappointed when they called Cambell (and Rogers name) for the Skins.
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
I have a question...
why do we get so enamored with kids from the same school? It is like our scouts pick the school with the most possible players and just stay their all year.
Auburn then…Nebraska this year…Miami… :)
haha that is a very good question
don’t forget our Oklahoma offensive line (granted we only drafted one of them)
Steveospeak - Content Manager of Fanspeak.com
i always heard gibbs fell in love with JC because of his corner fade...
too bad we never got to throw it in DC
This is my favorite part
Did the Bills turnaround before or after they got a reasonable quarterback behind center?
And I am not even going to begin a discussion with you about Brees vs Fitzpatrick as to franchise value. Not even worth my time.
First off, you say they turned around when they got a reasonable QB behind center. This is the exact same QB they had last season, who had a fantastic 4-9 record with them, beating only the Detroit Lions (who were starting Shaun Hill at QB), the Bengals (TOhno), the browns, and the Dolphins – in other words, teams just as bad or worse than them.
Then you tell me Brees is much, much more valuable to his franchise than Fitzpatrick is to the Bills. And yet, the Bills currently have the better record. If QB play is everything, the Saints would be 7-1 right now. So why is it that they’re behind the Bills? Because the Bills, as a whole, have the better team, even if they don’t have the better QB.
Next up…
You continue to conflate the idea of draft position with the reality that the Shanahans have to pick a QB. The situations are not the same, and continuing to throw up strawman arguments that have nothing to do with our current situation does not help your argument. As a matter of fact, you are disproving your own argument by showing that QB play is critical. Put John Beck in Cincinnati or Buffalo and you can bet your bottom dollar that they wouldn’t be near their current records.
No, you are confusing the reality that the Shanahans have to take a QB with the misguided notion that they have to do it with a top 5 or top 10 pick. They don’t. Look, Dalton and Fitzpatrick aren’t asked to make any plays for their team. They’re game managers, who have excellent Offensive Lines and excellent Wide Receivers to throw to. For that matter, Alex Smith is not asked to make plays for his team either. They get their wins on the strength of their defense and running game. Now, sure, Beck is a significant downgrade from both of them. But the idea you need a top tier QB to win in this league is severely misguided and simply not true. The Shanahans will undoubtedly choose a QB, but the fact remains that they don’t have to choose him with a top pick. A game manager works just fine if you have pieces around him to make the plays.
Oh, and forget what I said earlier. This right here…
BTW-In case you didn’t notice, Alex Smith was a #1 pick, in a year that he probably wasn’t the best available player based on score, proving my point once again that when the time to pick a QB comes around, it is going to happen. There is no way around it.
Not to mention this is a perfect example of the entire point of my post. We selected Carlos Rogers instead of Aaron Rodgers. And then, it is quite possible we THOUGHT we would get him at 24 because GB had their QB. You know what they say about the best laid plans. This is the quintessential draft proving almost all of my points. QB value is so much higher than other positions that it creates the need for stepping outside of BPA at times.
Is my favorite part. You say that a team will draft a QB regardless, and that Alex Smith is the perfect example of that. Well, in case you didn’t notice, 24th in the draft is a long way off from a top 5 pick, so I guess Aaron Rodgers is a perfect example of the exact opposite. remind me, which of the two have won a super bowl again? The number one pick or the number 24 pick? Quintessential draft indeed.
Continuing downhill I see...
1. Who started the season as Buffalo QB. Hint – His initials were not RF. Now how are they doing once he has had a chance to develop? Fitzpatrick is no longer a game manager.
2. Apparently your estimate of value to a franchise is based on number of wins in the current season.
Then you tell me Brees is much, much more valuable to his franchise than Fitzpatrick is to the Bills. And yet, the Bills currently have the better record.
Therefore, Alex Smith is more valuable to the 49ers than Tom Brady is to NE. That doesn’t even pass the laugh test and only makes any of your other arguments less credible.
3. Please find where I said the Shanahans were going to take a QB in the top 10. Good luck. What I said was the Redskins will take a QB with their first pick, whether it is 5, 10, 20. They will not be waiting around planning for a game manager, as you seem to propose as the appropriate strategy in your last post.
It won’t happen. Period.
4.
But the idea you need a top tier QB to win in this league is severely misguided and simply not true.
Not even worthy of a response….glad you aren’t the GM…those games managers…how many super bowls do they have…and how long did they last….the last pure game manager literally got shipped off after winning the Super Bowl. Hilarious..
5. You have 2 favorite parts…try again…not to mention your second one is based on your projection of what you wanted to see in my post vs. what is actually there.
You are entertaining though. I will give you that.
Oh, you're fun.
1. Who started the season as Buffalo QB. Hint – His initials were not RF. Now how are they doing once he has had a chance to develop? Fitzpatrick is no longer a game manager.
Fitzpatrick is the very definition of a game manager. He has a high completion percentage on short dumpoff passes and hands the ball off to Fred Jackson or tosses him a screen most of the time. He’s not asked to extend plays (his line gives him a ton of time as it is) and he’s not asked to make big plays all that often, just do enough to get the chains moving. Which he does.
2. Apparently your estimate of value to a franchise is based on number of wins in the current season. Therefore, Alex Smith is more valuable to the 49ers than Tom Brady is to NE.
It occurs to me I wasn’t as clear with that statement as I could have been. I acknowledge and fully accept that Brees is much more valuable than Fitzpatrick. But of the two teams, the one with the more valuable QB is the one with the worse record. This is not because of the QBs themselves, it’s because of the players around them. One has a complete team, while the other does not. My point is that if QB play is all that matters, then the Saints would be 7-1 or undefeated and the bills would be maybe 3-4. Like I’ve been saying all along, we must build the team around the QB as well. More explanation on this below.
3. Please find where I said the Shanahans were going to take a QB in the top 10. Good luck. What I said was the Redskins will take a QB with their first pick, whether it is 5, 10, 20. They will not be waiting around planning for a game manager, as you seem to propose as the appropriate strategy in your last post.
This is not the point I am arguing. The point I am arguing is that we can trade back before doing so. We can still use our first pick on a QB. If we move back from #5 to #15 that #15 pick is still our first pick. Trading back is the fastest way to building a complete team of young players.
Not even worthy of a response….glad you aren’t the GM…those games managers…how many super bowls do they have…and how long did they last….the last pure game manager literally got shipped off after winning the Super Bowl. Hilarious..
You know who was a game manager for 3 super bowl wins? Tom Brady. He was the ultimate game manager QB. He made the throws he was supposed to make and wasn’t really asked to do more than he needed to. Their D was in the top 5 in the league in turnovers each of those years (a common theme I’ve been finding in every super bowl team for the last 10 years or so – look it up) and only allowed 14.9 points per game. Tom Brady helped that offense move the chains, but it was the defense that truly controlled the flow of the games. He didn’t develop into the passer he is now until around 2006, when the Pats defense began to falter and he had to pick up the slack. They haven’t won a super bowl since then, so you’ll forgive me for thinking that winning titles has a lot more to do with team strength as a whole than QB strength alone.
I never said a pick number
This is not the point I am arguing. The point I am arguing is that we can trade back before doing so. We can still use our first pick on a QB. If we move back from #5 to #15 that #15 pick is still our first pick. Trading back is the fastest way to building a complete team of young players
But I am submitting to you that they will not take a chance and hope someone is still there later. My point is they will pick a QB with the first pick, because they no longer have room for error. We can debate all day about draft strategy, but it will not matter this year. They are going to pick a QB.
And if your idea of a game manager is now Tom Brady, then every QB is one. Manning, Rodgers, Brees.
You can’t evaluate a QB’s style based on their defense. We all know the difference between Tom Brady and Alex Smith/Trent Dilfer. It strains credulity to even attempt that argument.
Regardless, reread the post. You are arguing about something that I never even implied. The post says I am not attempting to judge efficacy of what will occur. The point of the post is the Shanahans no longer have a choice.
(As I said above, I could see a trade down a few spots, with say the Rams and Panthers between the picks, but that would even be dangerous as other teams could trade up. That is the risk this regime can no longer afford to take.)
You fail to see the difference
between Tom Brady from 2000 to 2005 and Tom Brady 2005-present. He’s an entirely different QB. Tom Brady was not considered to be on Peyton Manning’s level even in 2003. When the patriots were winning Super Bowls, Tom Brady’s only job was to not screw up. He was not considered among the elite until the defense started faltering and he had to put the team on his back.
I disagree that trading back would cause us to lose out on all possible chances to get a good QB. There are at least 7 of them in this draft, and only 4 or 5 at most who actually need one. Last year there were a lot more teams that desperately needed help at the QB position and fewer decent QBs to choose from. That is not the case this year.
sigh...
an awful lot of attempts, tds, and yds for someone looking not to screw up…
And there you go again with your mythical “elite” status. The guy made the pro bowl in 2001, 2004, 2005 and won super bowls. Call him what you want, but I call him a winner and a QB anyone would want that had a huge role in the success of NE. What part of that is so hard to get?
Yes, they changed the offense when Moss and Welker came…but that didn’t make Brady a stiff just hoping not to lose before then…
You are really really stretching…
And regarding your assertion that there are many QBs, that isn’t the point. The won’t be playing lets just take whoever is there when it gets to us. They want to keep their jobs, so they will try to get their guy. Plain and simple.
What the hell
How did Brady throw for 3620 yards in 2003? The Pats only had 3,432 total passing yards that season.
anyways, based on your own screencap, compare the numbers before and after 2004.
first off, for all his talent he was just 11th in average yards per attempt, tied with Jon kitna and Jeff Garcia. He scored a lot of TDs because he constantly had a short field. The defense was in the top 5 for turnovers forced. Brady’s high number of passing attempts were a result of a poor run game, so instead of trying to run the ball they just made short catch and run throws. I’m not saying Brady didn’t do his part – he did what he needed to do. But credit for NE’s success does not belong solely on Brady’s shoulders. The team as a whole was excellent.
Fitzpatrick is no game manager my good friend
He is a team leader, who has slowly developed into a Damn good QB.
John Denver was a musical genius
by Tiller56 on Nov 3, 2011 9:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Question for you
how many superbowls does New Orleans have and how many does Buffalo have?
another…
Did the Bills turnaround before or after they got a reasonable quarterback behind center?
You continue to conflate the idea of draft position with the reality that the Shanahans have to pick a QB. The situations are not the same, and continuing to throw up strawman arguments that have nothing to do with our current situation does not help your argument. As a matter of fact, you are disproving your own argument by showing that QB play is critical. Put John Beck in Cincinnati or Buffalo and you can bet your bottom dollar that they wouldn’t be near their current records.
We had a chance this year and last to play the draft and develop game. We chose not to. So your personal preferences and maybe the front offices don’t come into play anymore.
They will choose a QB. And they will find out in 2 years if they still have jobs.
It is what it is.
BTW-In case you didn’t notice, Alex Smith was a #1 pick, in a year that he probably wasn’t the best available player based on score, proving my point once again that when the time to pick a QB comes around, it is going to happen. There is no way around it.
Not to mention this is a perfect example of the entire point of my post. We selected Carlos Rogers instead of Aaron Rodgers. And then, it is quite possible we THOUGHT we would get him at 24 because GB had their QB. You know what they say about the best laid plans. This is the quintessential draft proving almost all of my points. QB value is so much higher than other positions that it creates the need for stepping outside of BPA at times.
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