Should we be worried that the Redskins are 0-7 against rookie QB's recently?
For those who didn't know, the Redskins loss to the Cam Newton lead Panthers at the weekend left the Redskins 0-7 in their last 7 games against rookie QBs.
There's a good debate on Twitter between @BurgundyBlog, @Matt_Terl and @ToBurgundyTears over this stat. It started with @BurgundyBlog saying this:
This rookie QB streak is seriously the most damning statistic I can remember, about any NFL franchise, ever. Absolutely mind-boggling.
So my question to you is, should we be worried about this? @BurgundyBlog makes a good point in that it shows the Redskins are losing to teams that were bad enough to draft QB's in a position to start in their rookie year (i.e. 1st round QBs, more specifically top 10 picks). He mentions how they are raw on-field leaders and that teams that were that bad should be getting beat.
I'm not so sure. Teams that are drafting top 10 get top 10 picks in each round. The Lions are a perfect example of this. The year they drafted Stafford, they managed to secure an extra 1st round pick, which they used on TE Brandon Pettigrew. They used their second round pick was on Safety Louis Delmas. That's 3 quality starts to build around previous drafts. Drafting so high, is going to get you potentially 3-4 starters. Plus you can entice free agents with the attraction of playing with a young franchise QB that everyone desires. Just because they drafted a QB high, doesn't mean they can't be a good team. Bradford took the Rams from 1-15 to 7-9 and nearly to the playoffs in his first year.
For me, if you draft a QB, especially at number 1 overall (which the last 3 rookie QB's we've lost to have been) you're expecting him to instantly take a leadership role and win you games. After all, it's a QB driven league, you need a franchise QB to stand a chance of winning a Super Bowl. I don't understand why a rookie QB shouldn't be successful just because he's young.
The last 4 rookie QB's we've gone up against (Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford and Cam Newton) have proven to be pretty damn good at their position. So, in my opinion, it's just like going up against a rookie WR like a Calvin Johnson type that you just can't cover, or a rookie pass-rusher like a DeMarcus Ware type that you just can't block. They get drafted that high for a reason. They are meant to be good players, and good players will win games particularly at QB where they have the ability to lift the whole team.
I mean, just because Cam Newton is a rookie, doesn't take away from his ability to make this throw:
Newton has to throw off his back-foot because of the pressure from Rob Jackson.
but he still manages to put a perfect throw into Steve Smith's arms, just out of the reach of Josh Wilson. This throw shows that some QB's can just make people around them better, or make up for their mistakes. The pressure is just cancelled out as Newton has the ability to throw this bomb off his back-foot, making up for his Oline not giving him a lot of time. He puts the ball only where the WR can catch it, meaning the WR doesn't have to do as much to get open (although in this case, Steve Smith is a pretty damn good WR). When a QB can do this, he can change a game.
So what do you think? Am I being stupid and @BurgundyBlog right that this is a horrible stat that means we're losing to really bad teams?
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I just would expect our defense to cause more confusion
It’s like we go up against these guys that have been turning the ball over all the time and suddenly they become almost perfect qb’s. Though that problem is not just with rookie qb’s like cam newton who until we played him, was a turnover prone passer. Even the mike vick somehow got rid of his turnover bug against us.
I expect a 1st round rookie qb to be talented, and make some great throws. But I also expect our defense to force them to make some mental mistakes due to confusion.
The Beat Box aka skins secondary.
Maybe its b/c we stink and they just have uber confidence when they run into us.
Funny stat: When starting a rookie QB the Redskins are… o wait
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I agree. We stink. The dregs of the league usually play lights out against us. Rookies qbs get their first win, rookie wrs get their first td, rookie dbs get their first picks. And teams always get off the snide against us. Seems like a problem that will never go away. Makes me sad.
by AplastarCraneos on Oct 25, 2011 12:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agree
in general, they lose to most teams. Doesn’t really matter who the QB is.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Oct 25, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
pretty much
I wonder how the Redskins do against teams with running backs who were born in the month of July.
Or teams with coaches who coached in the South
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
for the last 20 years
they lose.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Oct 25, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not too concerned about it.
THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN, PART 1 – IN THEATERS NOVEMBER 18TH!!!!!
Care to elaborate?
Follow me on Twitter: @UkRedskin1 feel free to give suggestions on what you'd like to see broken down each week.
by UkRedskin on Oct 25, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure.
That’s an 0-7 record against rookie QBs. But the team has lost 30 games in three years, so I think it’s just a coincidence. But it’s weird that we also always seem to beat Superbowl caliber teams.
THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN, PART 1 – IN THEATERS NOVEMBER 18TH!!!!!
I’m willing to bet we’ll lose to the 1 Super Bowl contender we’ll play this year (New England)…by a LOT. 52-7 will be a distant memory compared to what they might do this time.
by OvechkinGR8 on Oct 25, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's coincidental
There’s been changes at coaching staff in that span, different players have come through, it’s just one of those weird statistics.
by Dammit Cerrato... on Oct 25, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
I don't know what it is, but
Maybe we are going into the game expecting them to turn it over. Maybe we ae taking them lightly. Could it be left mindsets from the past several years? My biggest criticism of the Redskins over the last 5 – 10 years is how they play down to the competition and then up to the competition. From that perspective, I now understand why Shanny said it will take five years to turn this train around.
I Agree
You know how people talk about visualizing your goals to achieve them? Well all the Redskins vets can visualize is playing mediocre football….so they have to turn that entire mindset around and believe that they can win every game.
by StephanHart on Oct 25, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
It's why we need to take the same strategy we did last year into the 2012 draft
there really are very few parts from the Vinny area worth salvaging. The turnover has to continue.
by SkinsOsTerps on Oct 25, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It explains who the Redskins are...
Although the Defense didn’t play great they did not pay poorly compared to other teams against Carolina and Cam.
When able to game plan a QB the team provides a solid performance, rookie QBs with little historical data provide a problem with game planning.
So therefor a team (redskins) having very few “impact” players the game plan (system) cannot account for team weak areas which are then exposed.
It even occurs with backups in the past when players the starter would go out the backup would light up the Redskins.
The game planning exceeds the caliber of player at this point…the team is rebuilding or as in the far past the team just didn’t have impact players.
It's the offense that's the problem
Like you said, the D was comparable to how other teams have fared against Carolina. Our offense simply doesn’t do anything even when presented with (relatively) easy opportunities.
by SkinsOsTerps on Oct 25, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think we should worry about it. The coaching staff and front office will be here for a few (at least three) more years. There is nothing changing. They will play out their hand to the best of their ability.
We are not a good team. We aren’t embarrassingly bad, as we were under cerrato/zorn and even times last year. But we are not good enough to beat every bad team.
Rookie QBs tend to have new coaches too. And I feel we have been outcoached- on the field- pretty regularly. We consistently lose the half time adjustment battle as the Carolina game perfectly demonstrates with three second half touchdowns. BUT, on the positive side, the coaches do a great job controlling the locker room. We might not be winning much, but we have good players- solid character. And that is something to be proud about =)
by les boulez bomber on Oct 25, 2011 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
At least 3 more years?
If the Shannys don’t sniff the playoffs next year then they are long gone.
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
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I'd hope even Snyder isn't that stupid
Who on Earth would come here if he’s gone that quickly, particularly when he explicitly said it would take 5 years to turn around.
by SkinsOsTerps on Oct 25, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Steve Mariucci... I'm not saying its a good ieda, I just don't think you can lock Shanny in until 2014
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
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With the amount of money we're paying to Shanahan
on top of what we’d have to pay a new coach, I’d be surprised if we don’t see at least 4 of the 5 years he’s signed for. Kyle and Haslett might be different (not sure I would change them personally), but Mike Shanahan I think gets at least 4 years of his contract to turn it around.
Follow me on Twitter: @UkRedskin1 feel free to give suggestions on what you'd like to see broken down each week.
Kyle will be here as long as Mike is
There is no scenario under which Kyle leaves. Mike won’t fire Kyle and Mike wouldn’t stay if anyone else was to make Kyle leave.
Plus, Kyle isn’t the problem with this team
If you can’t sniff the playoffs after three off seasons of rebuilding what are you doing?
Plenty of teams in the same situation as us were turned around quicker.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I don't know how many teams were quite in the same situation
We’ve had a toxic culture here for over a decade that complicates things. I think it takes longer to clean that up than just recovering from a few years of bad personnel decisions or a bad coaching staff.
We also were set back pretty substantially in the rebuild by the McNabb trade. To this day I don’t think we’ve heard the true story on what happened with that, though personally I’ve always seen Snyder’s fingerprints on it.
by SkinsOsTerps on Oct 25, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't be more toxic than going 0-16...
now look at them…
That wasn't toxic, it was just really, really sucking.
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
Well if you say so...
Editor at Hogs Haven - Redskins Blog
Twitter: @RVAparks Check it out for the latest Redskins news and opinions
They still have room for improvement...
but they are a playoff team this year…that room for improvement is potential SB team which I think is their peak…
that's not realistic
In this league, if a new coach has three losing seasons in a row he doesn’t stick.
If you find an exception, I’d be interested to see it, but I bet it will be hard.
by sofutomygaha on Oct 25, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
its because he is Shanahan...
oh in Shanny we trust…the guy that now consistently chokes in the 2nd half of the season.
Shanahan fired after three years (after 2012)?
Yes, and if we go, say, 4-12 or even 5-11 this year, and it is clearly due to poor QB play (i.e., Shanahan’s fault), he could even get fired after this year. Ironically, the rash of injuries could shelter him a bit, give him a third year.
Another possible factor could be that if Snyder ordered Shanahan/Allen to cut spending (which they did), that could also be an excuse, and give him a third year.
But Shanahan has made a lot of serious mistakes, and hasn’t yet shown the coaching genius many of us expected. One example – going for it on 4th and two at the opponents’ 40, in a 3 point game, and calling a goofy pass, cleverly handing the opposition excellent field position. Weird. If I was Snyder, I’d be getting increasingly worried about Mike and Kyle.
Needless to say, a couple of nice victories here over Buffalo and SF, and all would be forgiven, and we’d be back in the top half of the power rankings.
Read the article on Yahoo Sports (Carpenter)
Nasty nasty. Says Shanny could be gone after this year (not exact words) because of botching up the QB situation. Some facts wrong in the article, and typical anti-Redskins drivel. But who knows?
When you play a high draft pick QB
You are playing a team that has holes in many other areas. That bring up two points:
1. QB’s matter that much in this game.
2. Get a real QB.
They matter
but I think what’s more important is developing them properly and in the right environment.
by SkinsOsTerps on Oct 25, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well we have another chance against the Vikings in week 16...
lose that then we probably have to wait until 2013 to win against a rookie QB since i don’t see any of our opponents next year (barring injury) will start a rookie QB…
Just noticed something on horrible, horrible, horrible teams...
-Lions lost Kitna and traded Roy Williams in 0-16 season
-Trent Green got injured early on in Dolphins 1-15 season
-Henne out for year with winless Dolphins
-Peyton basically gone for year with winless Colts
-Bradford is expected to come back though which is why they will not get the #1 pick
no skins fans should not be worried
One of the reasons I thought Newton would have success this year, was he was surrounded by talent on offense. He has theree pro bowl olinemen, a stud wr in smith, two high quality tight ends in shockey and olsen, and two running backs in stewart and williams that have both had 1,000 yards in the same season.Carolina was decimated by injuries last year. Newton is the sIze of big ben, much faster though and has better deep ball accuacy than most of the QBs in the league
by gregjohnson1229 on Oct 25, 2011 4:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Redskins need to get their head out of their asses. Now!
Men and Football. The two greatest creations known to women!
by RedskinsGirl on Oct 25, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
It's because
Our defense doesn’t scare anyone. Sure, we have good players, but a rookie QB doesn’t look at our team and worry about any particular players. I don’t care where we rank in the standings, our defenses just don’t have that nastiness about them that makes teams worry.
Also, the stat itself is a hindrance. Rookies probably look FORWARD to playing us because of it.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
How Does This Season End?
I felt that the Redskins could do some damage if the injury Gods smiled upon them. Thin at the Oline, some depth at runnng back. That may not be enough. I’ve been patient (actually no) for 20 years. Were do you guys think this ends? I can’t rebuild much more. I’m from the Sonny/Billy days!
Much more?
This is the first sniff of rebuilding we’ve gotten in 20 years. This should’ve been done with Petitbon.
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
Rebuilding
This is Shanny’s second draft but true first full year and it was not a full year due to the strike…The team is ahead of the curve as far as I’m concerned in the only rebuilding year I know of since the Gibbs era.
i think it has to do with
our defenses relying on watching tape (obviously less tape on a rookie qb) and the new breed of rookie qbs that are dominating the nfl, most rookie qbs today, particularly those drafted in the 1st round and expected to lead their team, have a unique skill set of size, athleticism, and powerful throwing that exposes the most glaring weaknesses in our defense
1) we blitz alot, a more athletic QB is able to avoid this
2) and then use his arm strength to exploit our small corners and overly aggressive safeties in the passing game
ive seen it happen with newton, stafford and bradford in recent memory
bring back darvin ham
I agree
that we need to bring back Darvin Ham.
Jarvis Jenkins
Kory Lichtensteiger
Tim Hightower
Santana Moss
Chris Cooley
Trent Williams
Phillip Buchanon
Oshiomogho Atogwe
Byron Westbrook
by Jim America on Oct 25, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing with this stat
Is that it should teach us about this year’s draft. Just fucking get a first round QB and the rest of the team won’t be so terrible. The Panthers had 2 wins all of last season and aren’t much better other than Newton… but having a supremely talented player at the QB position, even if raw, is enough to at least energize a team. Or, possibly, be good enough to win a few games for them.
We’re not gonna get Andrew Luck, but we’re gonna have a shot at either Griffin or Landry Jones or some other fairly good 1st round prospect. I know we have holes elsewhere, but there is simply no question that in today’s league, having a 1st round quarterback who can play elevates your team. Look around the league — a staggering amount of starting QB’s are first rounders! We have to take our chances next year. We certainly have other needs — I’d love to get Justin Blackmon, say, or an elite interior O-lineman — but you build around your quarterback, not the other way around.
I think Shanahan and Allen are certainly the right guys to build a team, but you don’t build a good team without finding the guy to fit the most important position. I’m still glad we got Kerrigan and Jenkins in last year’s draft, but this year we absolutely need a guy to take over at QB.

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