A Formula For Drafting QBs That Works: Rule of 26-27-60

The Redskins need to draft a QB. There's no doubt about it. All of the circular-logic banter this week on the QBs reminded me of an article I came across last year involving a formula for evaluating Quarterbacks. It's called the Rule of 26-27-60.

Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

QBs that have passed this rule: Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Stafford. 

QBs who did not pass this rule: Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, David Carr, Heath Shuler, Jimmy Clausen, Jay Cutler, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow, Alex Smith (1 game short), Jeff George, and Vince Young (horrible Wonderlic). Yes, these are all huge busts but were all VERY high (or projected) 1st rounders.

Exceptions: Brett Favre (22 Wonderlic), McNabb (14 Wonderlic), Matt Leinart - who at USC played over 30 games, 35 Wonderlic, and threw over 63% all three years. Aaron Rodgers averaged 63.8 completion percentage, 35 Wonderlic, and 26 games (1 game short). Ben Roethlisberger scored a 25 on the Wonderlic (1 point short) but easily had the number of games and high completion %. Josh Freeman met all the rules except completion % at KSU (59.1%) - so close.

So how do the top, 2011, NFL QB prospects measure up to this rule? Stats after the jump...

Obviously, the Wonderlic test still needs to be administered, but several QBs clearly do not match this rule: Locker, Kaepernick, and Cam Newton - interestingly the highest 3 ranked QBs of the bunch. I'm not going to pretend I can evaluate college QBs for Mike Shanahan's system, but based on this rule and its' history, I'd rather take my chances on the #10 pick with a bona fide LB or NT. We've seen drafts go by with no star QBs, and it's possible that this draft is one of them. The only good QB in the 2005 draft was Aaron Rodgers, and he sat for 3 full years with the luxury of learning from the best. The 2007 draft netted ZERO starter QBs (Kolb perhaps the only exception) despite six being taken in the first 3 rounds. So here are the 2011 candidates:

Jake Locker, 6'2" - 228 lbs - (FAILED COMPL % MISERABLY)

Year School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2007 Washington Pac-10 FR QB 155 328 47.3 2062 6.3 5.1 14 15 105.0
2008 Washington Pac-10 SO QB 50 93 53.8 512 5.5 5.7 1 0 103.6
2009 Washington Pac-10 JR QB 230 395 58.2 2800 7.1 6.9 21 11 129.7
2010 Washington Pac-10 SR QB 184 332 55.4 2265 6.8 6.6 17 9 124.2
Career
619 1148 53.9 7639 6.7 6.2 53 35 119.0

 

Colin Kaepernick, 6'4" - 225 lbs - (FAILED COMPL %)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Nevada

WAC

FR

QB

133

247

53.8

2175

8.8

9.8

19

3

150.8

2008

Nevada

WAC

SO

QB

208

383

54.3

2849

7.4

7.8

22

7

132.1

2009

Nevada

WAC

JR

QB

166

282

58.9

2052

7.3

7.7

20

6

139.1

2010

Nevada

WAC

SR

QB

233

359

64.9

3022

8.4

8.6

21

8

150.5

Career

 

740

1271

58.2

10098

7.9

8.4

82

24

142.5

 

Ricky Stanzi, 6'4" - 230 lbs  - (FAILED COMPL %) - High Enough to Squeak Through, though

Year Team G Cmp Att Comp % Yds Yd/A TDs Int Sacked Yds
2007 Iowa  2 0 4 0.0 0 0.0 0 1 0 0
2008 Iowa  13 150 254 59.1 1956 7.7 14 9 22 138
2009 Iowa  11 171 304 56.3 2417 8.0 17 15 23 175
2010 Iowa  13 221 345 64.1 3004 8.7 25 6 19 135
Career 39 542 907 59.8 7377 8.1 56 31 64 448

 

Christian Ponder - 6'2.5" - 222lbs - PASSED
Chris has an injury history, and well, he went to FSU so there's no guarantee he'll pass the Wonderlic. Kidding aside, he graduated with a 3.96 GPA and is on his 2nd Masters. Crazy smart. I'll have a profile on him up soon.

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Florida State

ACC

FR

QB

8

18

44.4

105

5.8

1.9

1

2

89.6

2008

Florida State

ACC

SO

QB

177

318

55.7

2006

6.3

5.3

14

13

115.0

2009

Florida State

ACC

JR

QB

227

330

68.8

2717

8.2

8.1

14

7

147.7

2010

Florida State

ACC

SR

QB

184

299

61.5

2044

6.8

7.0

20

8

135.7

Career


596

965

61.8

6872

7.1

6.7

49

30

132.1


Cam Newton - 6'6" - 250 lbs. -  (FAILED - ONLY 14 GAMES PLAYED)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Florida

SEC

FR

QB

5

10

50.0

40

4.0

4.0

0

0

83.6

2008

Florida

SEC

SO

QB

1

2

50.0

14

7.0

7.0

0

0

108.8

2010

Auburn

SEC

JR

QB

185

280

66.1

2854

10.2

11.2

30

7

182.0

Career

Overall

191

292

65.4

2908

10.0

10.9

30

7

178.2

Florida

6

12

50.0

54

4.5

4.5

0

0

87.8

Auburn

185

280

66.1

2854

10.2

11.2

30

7

182.0

 

Greg McElroy (ALA) - 6'2 - 222lbs  - (PASSED)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Alabama

SEC

FR

QB

8

9

88.9

73

8.1

10.3

1

0

193.7

2008

Alabama

SEC

SO

QB

8

11

72.7

123

11.2

8.9

1

1

178.5

2009

Alabama

SEC

JR

QB

198

325

60.9

2508

7.7

8.2

17

4

140.5

2010

Alabama

SEC

SR

QB

222

313

70.9

2987

9.5

10.1

20

5

169.0

Career


436

658

66.3

5691

8.6

9.2

39

10

155.4

 

Andy Dalton (TCU) - 6'2" - 213 lbs - (PASSED)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

TCU

MWC

FR

QB

222

371

59.8

2459

6.6

5.8

10

11

118.5

2008

TCU

MWC

SO

QB

182

307

59.3

2242

7.3

7.3

11

5

129.2

2009

TCU

MWC

JR

QB

199

323

61.6

2756

8.5

8.8

23

8

151.8

2010

TCU

MWC

SR

QB

209

316

66.1

2857

9.0

9.9

27

6

166.5

Career


812

1317

61.7

10314

7.8

7.9

71

30

140.7

 

Ryan Mallett - 6'6" - 238 lbs. (37 games)  - (FAILED COMPL %)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Michigan

Big Ten

FR

QB

61

141

43.3

892

6.3

5.7

7

5

105.7

2009

Arkansas

SEC

SO

QB

225

403

55.8

3624

9.0

9.7

30

7

152.5

2010

Arkansas

SEC

JR

QB

266

411

64.7

3869

9.4

9.7

32

12

163.6

Career

Overall

552

955

57.8

8385

8.8

9.1

69

24

150.4

Michigan

61

141

43.3

892

6.3

5.7

7

5

105.7

Arkansas

491

814

60.3

7493

9.2

9.7

62

19

158.1

 

Blaine Gabbert - 6'5" - 235 lbs (29 games) - PASSED

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2008

Missouri

Big 12

FR

QB

5

13

38.5

43

3.3

3.3

0

0

66.2

2009

Missouri

Big 12

SO

QB

262

445

58.9

3593

8.1

8.2

24

9

140.5

2010

Missouri

Big 12

JR

QB

301

475

63.4

3186

6.7

6.5

16

9

127.0

Career


568

933

60.9

6822

7.3

7.3

40

18

132.6

 

Random stat: Since Drew Brees was drafted in 2001, there have been 9 Qbs drafted in the 2nd round...0 are long term starters today.

Random Stat #2: Andrew Luck is 2 games shy of this rule. His 70% completion percentage last year sky-rocket his pass percentage well over 60%. Figuring he's at Stanford, he'll probably score at least a 40 on the Wonderlic.

Random Stat #3: Ryan Leaf's highest percentage in 3 years at Washington State was 55.4. Heath Shuler's completion percentages in 3 years were: 50.0%, 58.0%, 64.6%. Eric Crouch averaged 52%.

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