A Formula For Drafting QBs That Works: Rule of 26-27-60

both are close in percentage completetion and were trending higher. I wonder what it would show if you took the completion percentage of their last 27 games only?

Is it better to draft someone at the ten spot, or maybe trade down and get Ponder and Stanzi, figuring they both pass and at least ONE will be a good starter???? I mean, I wouldnt mind having grossman start for one year while the two rookies battle each other and make each other better.

And while I (if I were the GM or HC) wouldn’t make the decision totally on the formula I certainly would use it as part of the criteria for the decision.

So what’s the low down on the guys who passed the criteria?

Or was he not in the list because he very well could be off the board at 10?

I am completely in the camp that the Redskins should avoid most of these signal callers for where they are likely to be drafted. Washington needs to trade back and stockpile picks, and even then I’d be wary of taking a quarterback in the top 3 rounds.

While I’m sure a couple of good to great starters will come out of this draft class, I think any that succeed will need the Rivers/Rodgers treatment of 2-3 years on the bench to learn and develop. Now obviously that just doesn’t make sense from the Redskins point of view since they have glaring needs at over a dozen positions.

Assuming the Redskins add some extra picks in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds here are the QB’s I’d target
Ponder in the 3rd-very polished, decent arm, I think he can move quicker than most
Kaepernick-4th-needs to work on his mechanics, but has some of the highest upside in this class
Stanzi-4th-not a great Sr. Bowl week, but I think he can grow into a Gus Ferrotte type starter
Dalton-4th- lack of arm strength worries me, I like his other skills
Nathan Enderle- 5th-has the starts, but not the completion percentage, looks like a raw talent to me, with a huge arm. Needs dev. time but some promise is there

One final note, I don’t believe in putting a lot of stock in freshmen or Redshirt freshman numbers, especially when looking at career completion % or rating, it’s like using the East German Judge’s score to really impact the final tally. Now I’m not saying they aren’t important at all, just that Stanzi throwing 4 incomplete passes 4 years ago is pretty meaningless (and would put him at 60%). Even for guys like Locker, Kaepernick, Dalton etc. who really started as freshmen its best value is evaluating how a prospect has grown. Just my 2 cents

This is what I’ve been preaching — nay, proselytizing — for weeks. The rule exists because the evidence over time supports it, not just to be arbitrary. There are always exceptions, but when you go for an exception, the odds it works out are not very good, else they wouldn’t be exceptions lol.

I do agree that you can excuse some of these things by looking at progression; obviously, it wouldn’t be fair to judge Ryan Mallett by his 43% his freshman year at Michigan. What you should look at, in my opinion, are the last two years of starts. There’s not a tremendous amount of difference between 24 and 27 games started, and in fact for most guys there’s an additional offseason of working and learning between those three games, so looking at the last 24 is a decent representation. If a guy is squeaking by in the junior year and noticeably improves into the senior year, that’s something to be considered. Regression without injuries or major system changes should be a big red flag.

he started games in his first year. Cutler is no bust as a quarterback. He is a bust as a public speaker – he has the worst demeanor I’ve ever seen. Who the heck is McElroy? – it sure looks as if he is extremely accurate. Most of the well known top guys don’t have impressive statistics – like Newton only one good year, Locker a history of low completion percentages, Mallett and Gabbert mainly good final years. It could be that none of the mentioned QBs is worth the #10 pick, if for no other reason than that we can get somebody pretty promising much lower – like at 42. But that would be very bad news – we badly need a top quarterback.
   Hard to believe McNabb’s Wonderlic score – had to be a bad day. Difficult timed tests, which most don’t finish, like the SAT, tend to favor people who are good at taking tests (like I was), not the same thing as intelligence. Donovan’s score could suggest he’s a slow worker (not dumb, just slow and deliberative, gets hung up on one question – which would be fatal on the SAT).

i just dont think you can scout like this…maybe a starting point. truth is, accuracy is the most important attribute by far. it is not the end all, but if they cant hit their target, it really does not matter.

watch a game…last weeks nfc championship…you could tell early the packers MOST LIKELY were going to win…cutler was inaccurate…throwing high several times. he missed deep balls long. a more accurate qb would have had chi either even or up by the half.

you cant get that just from stats…you have to watch a game or two. accurate throwing with no pressure should be a given. without it, forget them. the good qbs are accurate with some pressure.

cam newton is too inaccurate for sure, i hear locker is pretty awfull too…if you remember bradford, the one thing people talked about was his accuracy! (aside from the shoulder lol)

skins should draft a DE or RT with the first pick. serviceable DT can be had in later rounds! as with guards. though with this crew if they draft any lineman first i will be overjoyed!

Stick with Grossman, get lineman at #10 because we can still use them. Let McNabb walk.

Next season trade the house to move up to get Luck. He’s the only sure thing coming out of college in the next few years. Some of these other guys have stuff going for them, but everyone of them have more questions than answers. Luck’s the total package. He’s the best prospect I’ve seen since Manning.

Ponder has good stats, and good reviews at the Senior Bowl – said to be the most polished and NFL-ready QB. But the big problem is with injuries, one of which apparently hurt his arm, and it is still hurting – still weak. If the arm can return to full strength, Ponder could be the best QB in the draft. Also nice – they might be able to get him in the second or third round. It’s all up to Shanahan to pick wisely.

Not arguing, just wondering. Would seem to be a natural talent, like hitting a baseball. But it could be hard to judge because completion percentage in any one year or situation could vary depending on a lot of factors, masking the real “accuracy” (just how good a passer the guy really is). But when you see comparatively low accuracy over time and in a lot of situations, you just have to worry a bit. Maybe enough to not take the guy with a high pick. But it’s a matter of degree – Shanahan will just have to decide if he can give up the accuracy.