Latest Mock Drafts from Mel Kiper & SB Nation Have Redskins Taking...

it’d be a mistake

I’d be curious to know if they can run stats on who’s been the most & least accurate the last few years. Actually, we already know Mayock is one of the best.

is if there’s a huge value falling into our laps at pick 10 who plays a position we don’t need.

Seeing as how we need help at almost every position, it’s tough to imagine trading down this year. What scenarios do you see? Maybe if a stud defensive end falls to us we would trade down with NE or NO?

It’s too bad this draft lacks elite offensive linemen, because Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are desperate. If there was a Trent Williams or a Russell Okung in this year’s draft, you could definitely imagine one of those teams giving up a mid-rounder to swap 1st round picks.

possibly even at our 2nd rounder. He’s pretty light in the pencil and needs to gain weight before the combine.

You don’t draft RTs at #10 overall. Not to mention the dude is sammich under 280 and he’s more of a late 1st early 2nd kind of guy. Our RT for next YR is Ryan Harris who is FA from Denver.

Touch, Kiper, Touche…

He has great intangibles, work ethic, mobility and arm strength, but he was inaccurate this season. He is still considered by most a top 15 talent, and the combine should improve that greatly. He is a perfect fit for Shanahans system, practically Jay Cutler with better leadership.

I have a feeling Mike was dying to get him last season at #4 after watching him all season, but now he’ll try to get him at #10.

are always high on QB’s that have one really big (in some cases senior) year, see Akili Smith. And we all know how that story usually ends.

As for Rogers, he was drafted right before Jason Campbell

What does Slowik have to do with anything? Carlos was singing the same tune around contract time last year when we gave him a one year deal. I doubt it has anything to do with Slowik.

And defensive back draft stock doesn’t tend to rise a lot. I think there’s a chance we have a shot at Peterson or Amukamara

Patrick Patterson from LSU who will be off the board by #3 and is the best CB prospect since Champ/Cwood and Prince Amukamara from Nebraska that will also be a top 10 pick. Next best CB either Harris or Jenkins and will go late 1st/early 2nd.

but I don’t want Cam Newton either.

I don’t like his release either and I’m really wary of how good he’d be at 3,5, and 7 step dropbacks (footwork could be a big issue). I’d rather take a chance on Mallet – nevermind he seems like a malcontent d-bag. This entire class of Quarterbacks looks like a giant case of Smoke and Mirrors.

this was a reply to the question above by 1×1fan.

Shanahan is also more than capable of getting the o-line turned around sooner rather than later, using mid to late round picks and a mix of guys already on the team.

Newton is a 1 year wonder in college, coming out as a Junior, with only 280 passing attempts as a starting QB with 264 rushing attempts to match that. That’s a very risky resume for a future NFL franchise QB. You draft Newton entirely on possible upside without having any real idea of how he could succeed in the NFL. The bust factor there is tremendously high though.

His career completion rate is 53.6% That’s terrible going into the NFL. I mean terrible. It’s dangerous to look seriously at anyone who trends below 60%. And yeah, Locker doesn’t get help from his teammates sometimes, but that doesn’t excuse his spotty ball placement, inability to appropriately temper his arm on shorter throws, and his sketchy pocket presence when he can’t roll out or use his legs as an escape (in other words, when he has to rely solely on passing versus letting his athleticism take over).

Locker’s basically a physical specimen for the QB position. That’s his hype. His body of work as a QB though isn’t anything overly impressive. He’s a poor man’s Jay Cutler coming out of Vanderbilt.

Especially with a lockout looming. If there’s a lockout, Newton wouldn’t even have a playbook for much of the off-season. That just puts him further behind schedule in his development.

And the Redskins run much more of a Kyle Shanahan/Gary Kubiak offense than a Mike Shanahan one. In other words, much higher emphasis on staying in the pocket than playing outside of one (think Schaub in Houston). It seems like some people (not targeting anyone in particular, I mean general sentiment from the fan base) think the Shanahans would want Newton to come in so the Redskins offense could turn into some sort of option attack or something.

I am with you on this one Terps. Absolutely under no cirumstances do i want Cam Newton at any round of any draft. This kid has Jamarcus Russel written all over him and no i dont want to argue with anyone over it. Thats my personal opinion and i am sticking to it.
 Like it or not if Jake Locker is available at #10 he will be a Redskin he is the only quarterback in the top rounds of the draft that can run our offense. I am guessing Shannahan is jizzing on himself to get this kid. He is a gunslinger just like Plummer,Elway,and Cutler.

I’m in the minority but…..He’s a guy that has bust written all over him. He has decent athleticism but is always out of shape and he been inaccurate. He played in the spread offense but yet only had 16 TDs and 9 INTs. The same offense that Chase Daniels had 38 TDs and was a Heisman candidate his final year. How can a gut that is a pro QB only have 16 TDs in the spread and then have to learn how to read a D with 3,5,7 steps drops in the Pros be so high on so many “expert’s boards”…..He’s Blaine Flabbert in my book.

I don’t know if I can think of a Super Bowl team (that either won or lost) from the last decade that wasn’t QB driven, outside of the usual Ravens and Bucs examples, which were also a long time ago by today’s standards. Maybe the Giants in 07,considering how ridiculous their pass rush became in the playoffs.

To say “a QB is the last piece” is archaic thinking in today’s NFL though. You aren’t winning much if you don’t have a pretty good QB.

desperately clasping onto arbitrarily selected, woefully small (and ever morphing), painfully unscientific sample sizes doesn’t do anything for what you’re trying to advocate. And “i am friends with a black person (more specifically, ’i’m not a racist … i voted for Obama, i voted for a person of color to lead my company’), see i’m not racist!” doesn’t salvage how ignorant you sound. If you haven’t inferred yet, the reason people snicker at those who insist they’re not racist by swearing that they have a friend or colleague who’s a person of color, is because that’s a classic signature of those who are racist.

And don’t try to play victim. That you surmise that people think what you’re saying is dumb on this point is because society is claustrophobic about race & ‘nobody like you is allowed to dadgum speak the “dang” honest truth,’ is mind-numbingly narcissistic. the reason people think you probably have an IQ below 70 is because what you’re saying has no basis under the purview of scientific reasoning “Jethro.”

But how much is the real question there.

Recent studies have shown that over the last couple of decades, but especially in this past decade, QBs selected in the earlier rounds are easier to judge by their career completion percentage. If it’s above 60%, other factors then come in to play when evaluating them (Wonderlic score, the system they ran in college- such as pro style versus spread option, talent around them, number of passing attempts per year, how many games they started, etc.), but if it’s below 60%, no matter what, they tend to have a much greater chance at ultimately failing in the NFL.

Let’s take a look at the guy everyone is comparing Jake Locker to: Shanahan’s own former 1st round QB pick, Jay Cutler.

Cutler started 4 years at Vanderbilt, 45 games in total, and had a career completion percentage of 56.475%. That’s partially skewed by his freshmen year when he threw for barely over 200 attempts with about a 48% completion rate , so taking that year out, he ends up with a career rate of 59.1%. Just barely under the 60% cutoff line. Now would anyone argue that Cutler has proven to be a particularly accurate, elite QB in the NFL? People excused him coming out of Vanderbilt by saying he was on a bad team that was really over matched in talent within the SEC. With that being the case, 59.1% for his career isn’t bad, yet he still hasn’t proven his value as a true top tier QB in the NFL, largely because of accuracy and decision making issues.

Looking at Jake Locker, his career completion sits at 53%. To be fair in this comparison that I’m making, let’s take out his freshmen year where he threw for a pretty bad 47.3% rate, the same as we did for Cutler, and just use his junior and senior years (he didn’t even throw 100 passes his sophomore season due to injury, so we won’t use that season either since the sample size is too small). That bumps him up to a 56.8% rate for his career. Now people are making similar excuses for Locker’s poor completion rate, saying it has a lot to do with the talent around him. That may be true to a degree, but is it really so true that he’s still 3% below the mystical cutoff rate?

Cutler was just 1% off that 60% rate and he still struggles with accuracy at the next level. Locker is 3%. Doesn’t sound like much on paper, but when looked at in the bigger picture, it’s a red flag to consider.

So yeah, I think Locker could improve over time. I mean, he’s a great athlete with all of the physical tools and by all accounts he’s a very hard worker and good team guy. But the numbers typically don’t lie in this case, especially when it matches up to issues that anybody paying attention can see on his film. At the end of the day, even with improvement, how much is he able to improve? If you’re counting on Jake Locker to turn into a Super Bowl level, top tier QB in the NFL, you’re basically counting on him to become a noticeable out lier in recent QB drafting history. You’re betting against sizable odds. Is that really worth a top 10 draft pick?

And he’s not going to come into the NFL and begin tearing it up immediately either. He would require development and patience from the coaching staff and his teammates. This is a win-now league and most 1st round picks are expected to play ASAP, and a top 10 pick QB for the current Redskins team would be counted on to take over and start turning the franchise around almost immediately. Would Locker be given the time needed for that? 2 or 3 years? Mike Shanahan isn’t getting younger and with a lockout looming this off-season, Locker wouldn’t even be able to get his playbook and start working with the team until the labor dispute would be resolved.