If you have read my other posts recently, you will know that I am really thinking that based on the people coming out this year (not a lot of hype) and the potential for Andrew Luck the following year I am starting to believe that our best bet is to trade this Years number 10 pick for picks in 2011. The going rate seems to be a following years 1&2 or at worst 1&3 for this years 1st Rounder, tho with it being a top 10 pick it seems we could even get a 2011 pick 1-2 and 5 for a top 10 2010 pick.
Alternatively we could straight up swap our pick 43 for a 2011 first rounder.
What does Ron Rivera have to do with this?
Number ONE: He has been used to coaching in a winning environment in San Diego so just MAYBE he will lack the patience to sit through a year or two of the slow painful rebuilding that Spagnuolo has gone through in St Louis and be arrogant enough to beleive that with a couple of Defensive pieces he can ride Defence to a quick turnaround.
Number TWO: He is a defensive coach and with most of the top players in the mock drafts I have read seeming to be Defensive players then maybe just maybe they will take Nick Fairley or Bowers with Pick One and still see a quality Defensive player they feel could be a difference maker still on the board by the time our Pick 10 comes around
Number THREE: Related to the above, the QB's in this draft class seem to all have flaws that could scare away Rivera (or anyone really) but also have enough upside to suck some teams in taking the chance of using a Top 10 pick on a player that is not really Top 10 standard due to the drafting teams need at the QB position. This means, the chances of a Top 5 rated Defensive player falling to Ten and making the defensive guru Rivera amenable to trading for him increases.
Now if those three things happen, this will give us the Trading Partner needed if we do wish to trade out of the Tenth Pick for picks in 2011
Now if Rivera believes in Clausen and that belief remains misplaced, then there is a real good chance, that playing in the suddenly brutal NFC South, Carolinas 2011 pick could easily be Number One yet again, giving us Andrew Luck 12 months from now. But even if they improve, with us having 2 first Rounders and 2 Second Rounders next year we would have kind of bounty needed to trade up to Pick One to get Andrew Luck, particularly if Shanhan makes nice with McNabb and we can include a ready made NFL QB in the deal to move up in a Trade with Team X on draft day 2011.
The other bonus of this strategy, if there is a rookie wage scale in 2011, we will get Luck Cheap for his first contract, meaning for once the Redskins were the savvy team and the one making smart moves.
Now I know there will be a lot of talk about all our other needs other than QB, but if I have learned anything about the NFL it is that a truly transcendent QB can cover up a lot of other deficiencies in a team, and even an above average one can greatly help.
Look at this years Playoff Teams. Lets say you put a league average QB in those Teams, someone like Jason Campbell who through his whole career rates somewhere around middle of the pack for QB's in their QB spot, I think that only the Jets and SeaHawks can honestly say they would have made it as far as they did this year with Campbell instead of the QB they have. Even Cutler who I hate with a passion and would never want on my team is slightly above average, so probably has taken the Bears further than Campbell would have.
We don’t have the multitude of picks or the Defensive genius of a coach to be able to build a team that wins in spite of its QB like the Jets have, we need a great QB, Shanahan has proven he needs a great QB to win a SB, so if we have a chance at Luck, we should take it. Because going 7-9 this year and having pick 12 will not get us Andrew Luck in 2011. But the strategy I have outlined above just might.
Look at my recent FANSHOT to see an article that explains just how much teams overvalue THIS YEARS pick over the abstract notion of NEXT YEARS pick. The strange thing is that as it currently appears 2011 pick one is going to be one of the most Valuable picks of the next Decade, if as expected Andrew Luck is as good as advertised.