Boswell: Odds Are Against Redskins; I Say They're Not

I’m not expecting Super Bowl this year, that would be crazy. Personally I expect 8-8 or so, depending on a few bounces of the ball.

The Redskins improved at some very critical positions this offseason:

Coach – Well we have a real one now.
QB – McNabb has already made passes JC couldn’t even think of making.
LT – Williams is a rookie, but still better than what we had last year.

Many NFL analysts state the three most important positions in the NFL are QB, LT and DE…well we already had Orakpo, now we upgraded the QB and LT compared to last year, and have a real guy as a coach.

I’m just looking for progress, not miracles.

(note: some guys were saying Shannahan was overrated, and pointing the Ravens game, and saying the Cowboys would destroy the Redskins Week 1, so that’s where some of the next comments come from)

Even if Shanny the Elder is “overrated”, Kyle Shannahan is a very good offensive coordinator.

To me the Ravens-Redskins preseason game was 6-3 at the half, I don’t care about any fake punts the Ravens ran to get on tape for their week 1 opponent.

The Ravens are a well run organization that many are picking to be Super Bowl contenders. I agree the Redskins need to stop giving away draft picks(I’ve been saying this since oh, 2002) but you can’t build depth in one offseason in the NFL – it takes time.

I don’t expect the Redskins to play up to the level of the Ravens yet, just to beat the non-elite teams – you know, the ones in theory they should beat.

And concerning week 1 vs. Dallas, who does Dallas plan to use to block people? Everyone seems to be touting them as potential super bowl champs, yet ignoring their already getting injured and not so great offensive line…

I would be in favor of giving T Williams some help until he gets up to speed with the NFL pass rushers. Eight sacks allowed is a high number in a NFL regular season. That was implied in Rabach’s comment about T Williams success against Suggs. Maybe keeping Vickers as a 3rd TE is not a bad idea since he may be a better blocker than Cooley or Davis. Fred Davis could still play more of a WR role and then only keep 5 WR on the roster.

I expect the Jets to play the Skins similarly to the way they played the Colts in last seasons play off game. The Ravens used much the same tactic. Force the opponent to become one dimensional without the run working and the blitzers have a field day. The Jets forced Manning to take snaps directly from the center rather from the shotgun with their blitzes.

A review of the schedule with the opponents defensive scheme in view might give a different perspective of the Skins season W-L record. Yet I do think that the Skins were better than their 2009 4-12 record. McNabb’s play and the Shanahans play calling should conservatively be worth at least 3 more wins. The 3-4 may also help to gain wins if the personnel is up to the tasks such as LB pass coverage and the DE can occupy more than one blocker. Kemo hasn’t shown that he can take care of the “A” gaps which is a key NT responsibility.

But I agree with you Kevin, the Skins weren’t a 4-12 team last year, just because the record says the Skins. Shoot, I think this year, without injuries and on paper, we are a 10-6, 11-5 team. The issue though is how players will handle losses, how they handle the transitions to both a new offense and defense, and who steps up when a key injury happens. I think we are looking at a shot at playoffs, but I don’t foresee winning the division or anything of such. A thing barring a lot (or just a few key) injuries, we are 9-7, maybe 10-6. It’s a lot wins, but we have a great coach to help us.

but basically just cycles. Worth reading by gamblers. I think we were not a 4-12 team – the real starting point is probably more like 7-9. I think improvements should kick us to 10-6 or 9-7. The schedule is not as hard as it could be. Assuming 3-3 in the division, other games we’ll be clear underdogs are Minn and Indy, and slight underdog to GB (at home). Key (tough but winnable) games are Hous, at Bears, at Tenn. Ten wins could be div (3), TB, STL, Det, JAX, Hous, Bears, Tenn.
All this would go out the window if there were any major injuries to the O-line – a repeat of 2009. McNabb has to stay healthy, also. We also probably need Haynesworth and Portis to have good years, and somebody to step up as a #2 WR, although those things could possibly be offset to an extent.

   “Ball don’t lie”. We WERE 4-12 against possibly the easiest schedule we’ve ever had. How do you expect to do much better against perhaps the toughest schedule we’ve ever had.

    Saying the above, Yes, I think we’ve made great strides, but we just had too many faults to correct them all in one year. I think next year we may be quite competitive, provided intelligent and ample free agent money is used. Cuz we don’t have enough draft picks.

    And WHY did we get such a tough schedule? Normally in the NFL, when you have a wimp season (and we certainly did) you should have a wimp shedule the following year. It’s what the NFL calls ‘parity’.

The teams rotate through the other NFC and AFC divisions, so 14 games are set far in advance. The other two games are determined by matching your finish with teams in the other two NFC divisions. The difficulty of the schedule isn’t always obvious – teams get better or worse, whole divisions sink (like last year, both NFC and AFC West), etc. So you can’t really depend on an “easy” or “hard” schedule. I’d suggest that the NFC North is roughly comparable to the NFC South, and better than the NFC West, and It appears that the AFC East and North are the toughest, followed by the South, and the West still weakest .

I agree that last year was way worse than it had to be due to poor coaching and poor game (not to mention team) management. The Redskins starting team I think is going to be quite solid. The problem will be when the injuries inevitably start to occur. We, sadly, are not a young team. We have not drafted well or consistently in a decade.

In my annual preseason drunken argument with a friend who is a Ravens fan this is the point he brought up. You look at their backups and you see young potential all over the place. Passed the Redskins first string you see a bunch of has-beens and likely never will be’s (with a few notable exceptions like TE and SS). That is why I don’t foresee a playoff berth this year. Injuries happen every year and the teams that go deep are the ones who can lose starting players without major drops in output. This is something we can’t do yet but I’m hoping Shanahan and Allen will have a few years of solid drafting to put it together. Based on this offseason and the state of the team left by Vinny the jury is still out on whether this will happen.

The O-line is close to where it was last year – starters pretty good, if slightly less injury prone, and even less quality depth. Last year they had Jeremy Bridges and Big Mike Williams as backups, until some genius cut Bridges. This year losing BMW was a huge blow, particularly to depth, because they had to move their only quality backup – Hicks – to RG. Of course, we could luck out – no injuries to the O-line. I really hope we don’t lose Clinton or Donovan or Santana – they are so vital, and no really solid backups (OK, the receivers would still function, and Rex is OK, and maybe some committee to replace CP, but man, I hope we don’t ever have to find out those things). I think the defense will be OK unless there were wholesale injuries. Looking at things that way, we could have another “good defense, weak offense” type year, unless we’re very lucky. Also, I wonder if there’s much chance that Allen will get another top O-line guy by trade?

Sorry, no crystal ball here…..but there’s one thing I can say with confidence. If Snyder HADN’T brought in Shanahan (and shown Cerrato the door) then last year’s 4-12 record would have looked like a winning season compared to what would have happened this year.
With very few draft choices and a very weak free agent class (and a whole lot of holes to fill) Shanny has built a better team….but with this year’s schedule and woeful lack of depth, it will take a lot of lucky bounces to beat .500.

Forget about 2009. It’s of absolutely no use for predicting 2010. This is a very different team and coaching staff. Some have said our O line is not much better than it was at the start of 2009. Wrong. Last year we had an aging left tackle and basically no right tackle at all. This year we have a left tackle with good upside and a pro-bowl right tackle. We have a QB who can improvise, see the field, and get first downs on broken plays. We have a #2 wide receiver: Anthony Armstrong. There is no reason to think he can’t be a legit #2. He has the speed, the separation and he catches everything. We have a healthy Cooley + Davis. We have a focussed Portis. We have loads of know-how in the coaching staff. We have a defense that will hopefully at least be average with regard to getting turnovers and giving the offense a short field, after years of below average results in that category. We have a promising punt returner to help with field position (and who may also help at the receiver position in a limited role).

We have a defense that should still be good. It’s a new scheme, but too much is made of that. There is plenty of talent on defense.

Lastly, the NFC East is not as stout as it has been in recent years. Cowboys don’t have an O line. Eagles don’t have Dawkins, McNabb, Westbrook. Giants have not been the same without Plax. Brandon Jacobs is finished. Antonio Pierce retired.

The only thing negative I can say is that the skins offense will not be as good at the Texans were under Shanahan. We don’t have Andre Johnson.

We don’t have great depth on O line, but who does?