Football Outsiders Explains Their Grim 3-year Outlook for the Redskins
If you haven't heard of the Football Outsiders, then let me introduce you to them. They're extremely well-knowledged sports writers that record, manage, and analyze NFL stats that go above and beyond what anyone else does. Doug Farrar, who contributed an article to our Redskins Annual Magazine, and Bill Barnwell are the two Senior Writers and are must follows for the twitter people out there like myself. Lets get right into it. In the first excerpt, I question Matt Tanier, who wrote the Redskins piece, on his belief the Redskins should have gone a different route saving all their draft picks:
FO Excerpt: "The Redskins could have Jake Delhomme or Derek Anderson as their starting quarterback, with second-round pick Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings. Or, they could have given Campbell another year, used their second-round pick on a defensive playmaker like Sergio Kindle, and let their defense win a few games while Shanahan made tough decisions on offense."
Hogs Haven: Seriously? Delhomme has showed zero value the last two years and who would you rather want to groom a future QB under? I'll take McNabb, which is evident with Kolb's emergence under the former Eagles Pro-Bowler. And look at what CLE paid Delhomme ($7 mil). I really challenge you on that statement because if the Redskins had signed Delhomme, you'd be writing how that was a typical horrible signing. Delhomme's only experience in the WCO was in New Orleans 10 years ago, where he only played a total of 6 games. Jason Campbell is the furthest thing from a WCO QB, which was evident with his slow release and problems with accuracy. McNabb has a career background as a WCO passer, and as the last 3 seasons have proven, the Redskins defense can only keep them in games, not win them. Do you agree with that?
Mike Tanier: Well of course I am not suggesting that Delhomme is better than McNabb. I am saying that the team could have gotten a veteran placeholder AND a quarterback of the future instead of spending draft picks on a short-term solution. And I don't doubt that McNabb will be better in 2010 than any of the other options available. The concern is about 2011, 2012, 2013. There is no quarterback of the future whatsoever, which is a real problem when your starter is in his 30s and has had a lot of injuries in recent seasons.
As for who is and who isn't a traditional WCO quarterback, I am as big a supporter of McNabb as you'll find in Philly, but if you are worried about accuracy on short passes and a slow trigger, I have some bad news for you.
Fair enough. I guess the real problem lies with what the Redskins' decade-long view: "The future is now." That's been the mentality even before Bruce Allen arrived. I thought we should blow up the roster completely after the DET loss, but Shanahan has done some exciting, cost-effective moves. I'm not opposed to his trades assuming we can stay healthy, which I am a lot more confident in now since the Redskins over-hauled their Strength & Conditioning staff. Next topic....
FO Excerpt: "It will be hard for the team to find and develop quality replacements. In a few years, Shanahan will be fired, McNabb will return to Philadelphia to retire with the Eagles, and Snyder will stand next to Urban Meyer heralding the start of another new era."
Hogs Haven: Those are some harsh words, but so far the Skins have proven the opposite by finding quality players at a very low cost. With very few draft picks to work with (Thanks Cerrato), the Redskins have been able to bring in some quality players (Adam Carriker, Jammal Brown). What most people don't realize is the Redskins did not lose draft picks in these deals, they only moved back. A huge difference since those late picks can be used to bring in youth or in a trade up if they have a player in mind. That is a HUGE change in football operations from past years where picks were given away, so I ask, do you really believe Shanhan will fail or was that just poetic writing?
Mike Tanier: I still don't see evidence of some great, coherent front office plan. I still see a bunch of old running backs, and a team trying to add Brian Westbrook for good measure. There's all the insane veteran filler on the roster that I mentioned in the article. You mention bringing in youth with draft picks. The best way to bring in youth is to bring in youth, not Vonnie Holliday.
Do I think Shanahan will fail? Yes, absolutely, if this is his, Allen's, and Snyder's idea of roster management. I can't look at this team with an old QB (no replacement on roster), old RBs (no replacement), old or bad WRs, question marks on the offensive line, and other problems, plus limited picks in future drafts, and say "well, the Carriker move was pretty good." This team needs real, actual, draft-guys-and-wait rebuilding. I thought Allen and Shanny were bringing that. They brought just the opposite.
Hogs Haven: It is a big leap of faith to think the Redskins will come on top out of this Cerrato over-haul. I am actually of the mind that they will struggle THIS year and improve over the next few years. With Shanahan being out of the NFL for a year, he got a long look at the college game, so I think the quality of the draft picks will be higher than average this year and next. I also think (hope) he'll start dumping some players for picks as the offseason goes on. Regarding your one comment, I was hoping I could get some clarification:
"I am as big a supporter of McNabb as you'll find in Philly, but if you are worried about accuracy on short passes and a slow trigger, I have some bad news for you."
What is that bad news? McNabb certainly has accuracy problems on short plays (worm balls), but I think he has one of the quicker triggers in the league. One could argue he holds the ball too long, but all of his highlight reels involve him making plays out of nothing (whereas Campbell has zero of those types of plays). McNabb's pocket awareness is also top-tier, which is evident in his ability to consistently get rid of it. I went fishing for passing stats in short yardage situations but didn't see any.
Mike Tanier: The bad news is that you said "Campbell is the furthest thing from a WCO QB, which was evident with his slow release and problems with accuracy." That was your argument as to why Shanahan shouldn't have kept Campbell around for another year while developing a Clausen or Colt McCoy. By those standards, McNabb is hardly the prototypical WCO quarterback, either. Of course McNabb is a better quarterback, for 2010, than Campbell. The crux of the argument remains that the Redskins have no plan for when McNabb takes the next step toward breaking down. The Eagles, who know him better than anyone else, started planning three years ago. The Redskins should have started planning in April, or (better) recognized that they aren't a Win Now team and passed on him.
Well, looks like we should fold the team and start rooting for the Ravens! Of course, we play the games for the reason. After last season, we all know the Redskins are re-building whether they want to admit or not. Wiping out 45% of last year's roster is re-building...I don't care how old the players are. Hopefully, in my interview with FO next year, Shanahan will have traded some "prime" players for draft picks having realized pre trade deadline the Redskins are not Super Bowl contenders. (Moss, Sellers, Rogers, etc).
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103 comments
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Comments
FO is being a bit overly harsh
but not very. Is this team looking better than last year? Yes. However all the issues of age, depth, and Snyder’s propensity for undoing any sane move he makes are all solid criticisms.
I still think they’re being too harsh on Shanahan and Allen considering where the team was when they got it. We had few draft picks and numerous holes. Personally I wish they’d have given Campbell another year and used that 2nd rounder on some young talent either at the O or D line. That being said I do think there’s an argument that the team had to cut ties with Campbell. He led a dysfunctional team through a particularly dysfunctional time, he was over coached, and he wasn’t used the way Gibbs originally intended him to be. Did we overpay for McNabb? We’ll find out this season. The Delhomme suggestion to me is just preposterous.
The real make or break for the new coaching staff/FO is going to be the next 2 draft classes and whether or not Snyder is really staying out of the kitchen. The position that the team was in necessitated this year be a bit ad hoc and I don’t think it’s fair to draw too many conclusions about it (yet). Now if it happens again next season then we can all slap our foreheads and say “here we go again” but for me doing that right now would be way premature.
Remains to be seen
I could very well be proven wrong, but I believe Locker in 2011….Barkley or Luck in 2012 are better moves than Clausen in this years draft.
FO is being too harsh
the idea that we should have delhomme or anderson is ridiculous. Campbell is far better than those scrubs. As for when Donovan retires, we just pick up another QB in free agency, maybe the next veteran some team tosses aside to make room for a rookie. In the past 5 years teams have been able to add Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Donovan McNabb, all b/c their teams wanted to clear room for rookies.
As for RB, rookie RBs can usually be immediately productive. All we have to do is draft a RB in a high round next year and couple that with some additions to our linebacker corps and interior OL and we are fine.
Not seeing how we are somehow hopelessly screwed b/c of the average age of our players.
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 29, 2010 10:45 AM EDT reply actions
Totally
all we need is a top 2 round RB, 2 starting LB’s and 2 more OL. With limited draft picks. It’s almost too easy. Not to mention we will need another safety, maybe 2, a CB, probably a #1 WR, a young QB to groom, new FB, NT, DE, backup RB/KR.
We are totally set for the future.
FO is right and wrong...
Yes, they are right in that we are not completely set up for the long term, but we do have a 1st and 2nd round pick next year and young starters like Orakpo, McIntosh, Rogers, Landry, Davis, Williams, etc.
Where they are wrong is their criticism of roster management- Shanahan/Allen tore up our roster and trimmed the fat:
I will take Jammal Brown, Donovan McNabb, Trent Williams, Adam Carriker, Maake Kemeate, and Vonnie Holliday all day over the likes of Randle El, Smoot, Betts, Cartwright, Todd Collins.
You're off the mark
They specificially said the roster is improved for next year. But sadly that is beside the point they’re making here about the long term.
Where they are wrong is their criticism of roster management- Shanahan/Allen tore up our roster and trimmed the fat:
I will take Jammal Brown, Donovan McNabb, Trent Williams, Adam Carriker, Maake Kemeate, and Vonnie Holliday all day over the likes of Randle El, Smoot, Betts, Cartwright, Todd Collins.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Isn't this word-for-word what you said?
“The Redskins could have Jake Delhomme or Derek Anderson as their starting quarterback, with second-round pick Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings. Or, they could have given Campbell another year, used their second-round pick on a defensive playmaker like Sergio Kindle, and let their defense win a few games while Shanahan made tough decisions on offense.
Yeah, FO is precisely where I got that from. Hence me making a post on their Redskins preview.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
As I said...
They are right that we aren’t completely set for the future. My problem is that FO took a shot at Shanahan/Allen’s roster management:
Do I think Shanahan will fail? Yes, absolutely, if this is his, Allen’s, and Snyder’s idea of roster management. I can’t look at this team with an old QB (no replacement on roster), old RBs (no replacement), old or bad WRs, question marks on the offensive line, and other problems, plus limited picks in future drafts, and say “well, the Carriker move was pretty good.”
And the truth is that Allen and Shanahan did not mortgage the future to bring in some of these nice guys. They got rid of a lot of old, expensive talentless players- and they’ve brought in strategic, cost-effective players to fortify the offensive and defensive lines and finally give us a quarterback who is not incapable of driving in the 4th quarter to win a game. That is the best roster management we have seen in 2 decades, and I take offense that FO is taking a shot at what is clearly a POSITIVE CHANGE in roster management.
by preppiejack on Jul 29, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
They don’t love the moves we made but they write that we’ll be vastly improved this year and compete for the division title.
Additionally, their argument is they don’t like any moves we made for long term value except the Trent Williams pick.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
You keep telling me what FO says...
I can read the article, and I understand the point they made. I am stating an “opinion” as to why I disagree. I like Shanahan/Allen’s roster management.
Jammal Brown: 29
Trent Williams: 22
Adam Carriker: 26
If these guys stay injury free and play at the high level we are all hoping, they will be good for the “long term.”
And I think Devin Thomas and Fred Davis will continue to improve with a veteran QB. Which makes the signing of McNabb important to the development of our younger talent. I like these moves HTTR!
by preppiejack on Jul 29, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Honest non-snarky question:
Did you read the original printed article or are you referring to this short interview?
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Just the short interview.
And I have taken issue with one comment, and one comment only, in that interview (and that is highlighted in my comment above).
PS- As far as young talent goes and our long term development, 15 of our projected 22 starters (or 16 of 22 if we run a 2 TE set) are 29 years of age or younger…
by preppiejack on Jul 29, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally I think we're playing with fire and not adequately prepared for imminent aging.
Here’s what FO wrote in the book:
McNabb, Portis, Johnson, Parker, Santana Moss, Rabach, Philip Daniels, and London Fletcher are all at or approaching the downside of their careers, with Andre Carter and Derrick Dockery not far behind them. There are few obvious successors to these key players on the roster…
(They also went on to make comments about how guys like Holliday and Galloway are stunting development, but I don’t necessarily agree with that)
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I would agree that there are few obvious successors as the quote reads. But Johnson, Portis, and Parker all play 1 position- so listing them all is just fluff they are using in their point. And Philip Daniels is no longer a starter in the 3-4 defense in all likelihood. So that leaves QB, RB, 1 WR, C, and MLB as needs we have in the next 2-3 years (since some of those guys have more years left than others- the RB’s and Fletcher may give out before a McNabb or Moss in my opinion). That is 5 positions. With 2 top picks next year and 3 the following year, all of those needs can be addressed. No team (other than maybe the Patriots a few years back) goes into a season without some holes in the future w/o imminent successors. That is why people draft. I think the value in the holes that have been addressed (mainly the Tackles), outweighs the holes we will have (and can address) in the next couple of years.
+1
We draft a RB and C in the first two rounds next year and we are fine. We can address the other positions in later rounds, later drafts and via free agency,
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 29, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Both guards will need replacing sooner rather than later.
and 3 years from now Jamaal will be 32, which is imminent replacement too.
5 early picks for these holes isn’t enough. A high pct of draft picks don’t work out. If you have 5 holes, you need far more than 5 early picks.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Also you're assuming we keep all our first three picks in 2011
which is something we haven’t done since 2002
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I'm just saying
That I personally like the direction Shanahan/Allen is taking us. It is a relief from the past decade that has been so hard on us fans. I want to support the two of them since it seems this is the first time we have a legit GM with actual power to call shots. I swore to myself that if Snyder gave up control, that I would support and not question the new regime for at least 1 year before complaining. I got my wish, so I am just trying to keep my end of the bargain.
fair enough
I swore to myself that if Snyder gave up control, that I would support and not question the new regime for at least 1 year before complaining. I got my wish, so I am just trying to keep my end of the bargain.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Replacements
I can see not thinking much of backup (future) QBs (what about Brennan?) and RBs, and maybe WR (if DT and/or MK/Williams/Austin/Armstrong ever arrive at all, they will be the “future”). But I get the impression that we have a number of young LBs (Jarmon and maybe Henson), Cs and O-line (Capers, Cook, Lichtensteiger) and DEs (Carriker, Scott). As Preppie says, that’s maybe 5 or 6 places we could use solid newcomers, and we should be able to get them in the draft, FA and trades. In short, I think we can keep building the team in the future.
None of those guys are elite pedigree except Jarmon and maybe Carriker
It’s the difference between finding depth in the early rounds and the late rounds.
Future starters are more likely to come from early rounds.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I believe we have 6 picks for the 2011 draft right now
more would be nice but I don’t feel like we’ve given up a lot yet other than the 2nd rounder for McNabb. Trades after the season may be possible for more picks. The Jammal Brown trade was sane and a decent deal. It isn’t like we’re just haphazardly throwing picks away which is why I think some benefit of the doubt is still warranted.
by SkinsOsTerps on Jul 29, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
What picks we have now is irrelevant. What we have on draft day is what matters.
Also, we gave up a 2nd and 3rd for McNabb, that is two valuable picks, IMO.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
FO is wrong
I had commented earlier that the team was going “old and cheap”, relying on old and injury prone veterans in an effort to win now, postponing any youth movement. But I think I was wrong, and FO is wrong. They have not mortgaged the future. We’re in pretty good shape this year and in future years. I would like to have gotten Bradford or Claussen, but am happy with D-Mac, and we have time to get his eventual replacement. It might be impossible to get Locker next year, but there are a couple of other possibilities, and there are a lot of veterans around. RB should be easy. WR could be better than it looks (if DT and/or Roydell step up), although I wish they’d make a run at Vincent Jackson. At QB there are Rex and Colt. FO makes good and debatable points, but I think the current team is pretty good, and there is a pretty good chance of keeping it that way.
I don't really see how FO is wrong about the future
You’re saying, “we’ll add youth in the future”, FO is saying, “yet another off-season the Redskins haven’t added more than 1 elite prospect”.
Those aren’t contradictory statements, you’re just having faith in a different strategy next off-season, whereas they are commenting on what we did this year and in years’ past.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Every team adds "youth in the future"
So really the Redskins are at about the same place for getting youth as every other team…well, with less draft picks.
Being decent for one year shouldn’t replace the ultimate goal. To compete for a Super Bowl year in and year out. Unless 2 short playoff appearances in 10 years appeals to everyone…(obvioulsy, NO).
by BrokenClipboard on Jul 29, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha.
Yeah, we’re in the same place as every other team, until we trade away more valuable picks than almost anyone else every year when the draft rolls around.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
i agree w/donnio
as someone else mentioned, they apparently don’t like our rebuilding or lack thereof, but like the trent williams pick apparently? i’m with donnio, this is a deliberate rebuilding process with qualified personnel at the front office & HC’s positions – if this were Zorn & Cerrato, “deliberate” rebuilding would smell like a cop-out to excuse trading away nearly all draft picks as if we got paid per diem. But w/Allen & Shanahan, & what feedback they may get from people who feel more free to voice criticism about the organization & get listened to instead of hidden away in some anonymous post in Redskins Inc., it was probably pretty obvious to them a key problem was giving away draft picks for an indefinite period of time. we’ll see but IMO i can’t see experienced minds like shanahan & allen simply repeating the Snyder/Cerrato/Zorn blueprint & failing to build on the draft, & feel like shanahan/allen will escalate use of the draft increasingly (finally!)
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 29, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are you so optimistic we'll "rebuild"?
Shanahan is known for not believing in “rebuilding”.
Obviously Shanahan is smarter than Cerrato as Shanahan can tie his own shoes. But that doesn’t mean Shanahan is a “good” decision-maker or that he’ll do what’s necessary.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
it's a presumption
but i feel like shanahan & allen are a lot more receptive to receiving rudimentary constructive criticism & feedback. i mean, even on the message boards like here fans are vociferous yet thematically pre-Shanahan we’ve always been beating the same dead horse it seems a long, long time with few exceptions. Build on the draft, it all starts with the line, etc.
it is a presumption but i just don’t see it as more reasonable to presume that the shanahan/allen regime won’t receive the most basic critical observation/s that have been made about the organization for eons it seems. i could be wrong, & allen/shanahan could shoot blanks when it comes to some draft picks, we’ll see if he does worse or better than the ordinary NFL GM/HC, but i think in terms of their overall strategy, they have probably sniffed it out that it’s pretty obvious where this organization has been unforgivably deficient
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 29, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
We'll see. One would hope.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I LOVE drafting our own "players of the future" what-have you,
but I don’t see where bringing in a ton of young players all at once is such a great “rebuilding” idea either. Can anyone give an example where a horrible team “rebuilt” by avoiding veterans, drafting a ton of players, and were successful within 3 or 4 years?
I think that this FO guy can’t see the forest through the trees. It seems that we’re bringing in moderately priced veterans to fill in while we add what youth we can through the draft until Shanallen can clean up the mess Vinny left them. They’re pretty much starting with Room 103 at the Marina View Hotel (for the Dexter fans out there. I hope I didn’t just completely undermine my point by making a reference to a TV show.)
by CarverM on Jul 29, 2010 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i would say '98 Colts, '89 Cowboys
rebuilding your team through the draft has the advantage that you can build a dynasty for years to come, whereas continually trying to patch playoff runs through adding veterans usually results in the team finishing someplace between 7-9 and 9-7.
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 29, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
But that was way unusual
they got like 19 picks on the Herschel Walker trade, if I’m not mistaken.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
So...
The Cowboys were a pre-salary cap team. Ask Gibbs— the game, and rebuilding, was different then. Also, the Colts weren’t exactly destitute in ’98… they made the AFC Championship in ’95 and the playoffs in ’96. That ’97 season was an anomaly.
one isnt 3-13 and secretly a good team
w/r/t the Cowgirls, just b/c salary cap is different, doesnt change fact that they became a dominant team through the draft…
there a tons of examples, the ’03 Chargers for instance were one of the worst teams in the league. They rebuilt through the draft (ownership is famous for not overspending on free agents) and in 2006 they won 14 games.
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 29, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
'03 - '06
We haven’t overspent on any free agents this offseason. Why do you give the Chargers 3 years to rebuild through the draft but you damn us before the season even starts?
not damning us....
I think we are building ourselves to be a 9-7 team (in a year or two)… I just wish we were building ourselves to be a dynasty…
I know the Lions are awful, but they seem like a good example of a team that is currently building themselves through the draft….. they ditched their Vinny Cerrato-like GM, and drafted young talented players at DL, RB, WR, QB, TE… and added some free agents to shore up the defense. If they draft a couple of solid offensive linemen and bring in better guys to help with their secondary, I think they are a playoff team in a year or two with a solid group of young stars who could ensure lasting success…..
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 29, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't this exactly what we are doing?
I mean they picked up Jansen from us… Other than they went with Suh this year and we went with TW…the positions may be different, but I don’t see us doing anything much different than what you stated. I would like to compare our draft posture for 2011/12 with the number and places of picks they have. I’m not sure how significantly different it would be….?
….. they ditched their Vinny Cerrato-like GM, and drafted young talented players at DL, RB, WR, QB, TE… and added some free agents to shore up the defense. If they draft a couple of solid offensive linemen and bring in better guys to help with their secondary, I think they are a playoff team in a year or two with a solid group of young stars who could ensure lasting success…
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Well, they've hoarded draft picks. We haven't.
In the past three years they’ve had 12 picks in the first three rounds, we’ve had 8.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Most of our picks were in rounds 6 & 7 (12 total), most of theirs were in rounds 1-3 (12)
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Is that sarcasm?
You really can’t see the differences?
Steelers, Panthers, Patriots.
Weird how the best and most consistent teams in the league are constantly building through the draft. Letting FA’s walk or shipping them out early for additional draft picks.
Eagles, Colts, New England...
…
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
The NY Jets
Drafted two OL in the first round who are now the anchors of one of the best OLs in the league. Allowed them to play a rookie QB and not rely on him while winning, and also make a slew of moderate price RBs look great. (Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Shonn Greene)
The Jets have their share of FAs and trades, but this is precisely my point. FAs and trades aren’t bad if you’re also devoting a lot of resources to the draft at the same time.
The Redskins, unfortunately, don’t give enough attention to that latter point.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
The Ravens have rebuilt twice, BTW, in the time we haven't done it once
Their SB winning team was decimated by expensive vets, and now they’re right back to making the playoffs every year.
How? Drafting.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
We're getting the drafting ship righted
but we’re not going to turn it around in one draft. The McNabb trade—the only trade so far where we really gave up a valuable draft pick— was pretty much necessary if we didn’t want to be horrible in the coming year or two while we get our drafts straight.
We definitely have to see mroe than one Shanallen draft before we can say that this team is doomed long term. You can’t fit a trend from one data point.
It's two sides of the same coin
They aren’t explicitly saying, “OMG Shanahan is never going to draft for the future,” they’re saying, ‘the redskins traded away 2 valuable picks instead of adding a young prospect this year and next, and only added one elite prospect in 2010, therefore their weak long-term prospects are unchanged’.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Well it may appeal to your sensibilities
but to me it seems quite fanatical and unfair to Shanahan and Allen when you consider the situation they were put into.
It's unfair to question giving up two picks b/c Jason Campbell might/does suck?
I think FO makes a pretty logical counter-argument to an alternative plan (play a mediocre vet, keep the two picks).
Agree or disagree, it’s not illogical or unfair.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Sorry, I meant the whole article
is fanatical and unfair. His statement about Shanahan being fired and Snyder hiring Urban Meyer was pretty ridiculous, and the author thinks he has figured out Shanahan and Allen’s plans for the future based off of one offseason of moves. This is ‘illogical’ because he is pigeon-holing their entire legacy based on an offseason which should be considered damage control and not typical. THIS is what I think the author misses.
I'm certainly willing to concede that the author took some liberty with future projections and the Meyer comment.
But it seems pretty undeniable to me that the moves this off-season loosely resemble a typical Snyder-run team. Whether they happen to be part of a “change in way of doing things” remains to be seen and it is certainly a conclusion to be reasonably skeptical of.
Obviously fans can be as optimistic as they want, but people shouldn’t act like someone is biased or hateful or dumb for observing Snyder’s history and not being willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Snyder hasn’t earned it. Other good coaches failed here before Shanahan got to town.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I simply said he was fanatical and unfair
he is, after all, a member of the media. I don’t think I suggested anything out of the ordinary there.
It's not fanatical to not like the McNabb trade and not want to give Snyder the benefit of the doubt
And again, they predicted playoffs for 2010.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
typical?
we have 4 new offensive lineman since Shanny took over, with two definite starters…not to mention we only have one prima donna DL who likes to take plays off instead of two (Peppers reference), we have a legitimate starting QB and a HC/GM who actually have some authority……I don’t disagree with all of your points ….but typical is not what I am seeing.
yes, loosely resembles. high turnover doesn't mean non-Snyderesque
We traded valuable picks for a veteran. We brought in a lot of older players. And we didn’t have a full compliment of draft picks, especially in the early rounds.
Loosely resembles most off season for us.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
To me it just feels like you are over generalizing
to make the situation fit the theory. Can’t blame the lack of draft picks on the new regime, and I think we did very well with what we had. I can’t compare the Donovan trade to, say, Jason Taylor…….you may be right, I am pleased with what we have done so far, and we wont really know any long term goals until next year….until then I am not complaining about trying to change the culture of losing around here. HTTR.
uhhhhhh
So, bringing in 4 new OL means we changed business? Well, the previous year we brought in 5 and 2 of those from this year were due to retirement. I guess that theory of yours is shot.
And you can’t see the similarity between bringing in a once great, now declining, stop gap player on a team that isn’t competing for a championship while giving up high draft picks for a once great, now declining stop gap player on a team that isn’t competing for a championship while giving up high draft picks???
OPEN UP YOUR EYES PEOPLE. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. I FEEL LIKE I’M TAKING CRAZY PILLS!
Be happy that we should be a much better team than last year and we have a real coach now, but drop this rosy, ignorant view of our team like we’re on the road to the next 5 superbowls.
I haven't had that much Kool-aid
I just see the differences this year, and yes my theories are infused with some hopeful projection. I disagree with your description of the McNabb trade. I am not of the belief that you throw a rookie QB into the fire unless the teal around him is at least somewhat in order. No, he is not our QB of the future but he goes a long way in changing the culture of our franchise. If this philosophy of “team building” continues through the next year or two, I will agree with whole-heartedly, but we really didn’t have a whole lot to work with. I do like the Donovan trade, and I think we could be very good this year, a lot of things have to go our way obviously, I am not predicting any dynasty here, nor am I jumping on the “same old thing” bandwagon until I have at least one more year of evidence.
I'm looking at it as a 2 phased project
Phase I – right the ship: return discipline, update O and D schemes, draft and trade optimally and do enough to put a competitive team on the field.
Phase II – Build for the future. Phase II starts next year. I still think we got great value for the draft picks we gave up and we didn’t give up many considering. Baring a career ending injury this year, D-Mac is a great transition talent for the long term while we find a new QB in the draft.
Bottom line, given what Vinny left us, I think they are doing an amazing job in picking up the pieces and allowing us to run with it.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
IF that's the plan, it's certainly a better one
But until we actually use all our picks in the draft next year (minus the 3rd we already traded), we’re just guessing.
My guess for long-term prospects, as you may have guessed, are cynical.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
this year is a trial.
the whole East has a nightmare schedule. Nest year will be great. Better schedule second year in the system, A blue chip first pick. One or two more FA pieces. Nest year will be the best we have had for a Long, Long time.
Of course, the NFL will screw us and shut down for the season.
Schedule
Next year we’ll be paired with the NFC West again. Not sure on the AFC – either east (NE, etc) or Central (Balt, Pitt, etc). NFC easier, AFC probably harder. In some ways, this year could be worse – only Indy is really tough in the AFC games.
Yet, but what better way
to truly test your team and expose weaknesses than by having a super tough schedule against teams with a variety of styles? We had the opposite strength of schedule last year and failed to capitalize; however, even if we had managed to squeak into the playoffs, the chances of us going anywhere were slim to none because our many weaknesses would have been exploited.
This year we, if nothing else, will be able to truly gauge our strengths and weaknesses in terms of personnel and strategies. An invaluable aid to planning for the future.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Agree -
with Scott E. Build for the future, but try to get through this year with what was already a pretty good team talent-wise, adding as much youth as we can, and filling remaining holes with veterans. Exact moves determined by need and availability. All pretty common sense. Not just “start over from scratch”, or “go with another over the hill gang”. Pretty sensible so far. I personally wish they had gotten Bradford, Claussen or McCoy, and would try to get Vincent Jackson, and another top RG. But maybe that’s not possible, and I’m willing to go forward with what we have.
The season hasn't started yet
and would try to get Vincent Jackson, and another top RG. But maybe that’s not possible, and I’m willing to go forward with what we have.
VJ may very well be available in 4-6 weeks and for much cheaper than say 3-4 months ago. Now that MK looks like a weak link with his hamstrings, they may just pull the trigger – Moss/VJ/DT/Cooley/Davis – Pavlov’s Offensive Coordinator is salivating.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
So
we’re 1/1 in not valuing the draft enough. It’s hard to do worse than that, yet you toss it away as an afterthought, nice touch.
And who cares if we are horrible next year, if it makes us a 10 year dynasty in 3 years. All this offseason did, just like every one in the Snyder era, was delay the inevitable (assuming we want to win a super bowl).
“It seems that we’re bringing in moderately priced veterans to fill in while we add what youth we can through the draft”
Please put down the kool-aid. Please explain how trading away multiple picks for veterans resembles what you said in ANY form whatsoever? Adding what youth we can would require, I dunno, holding onto the picks we already have and maybe even doing something radical like trading down in the draft to acquire MORE picks. What a crazy concept.
pretty hard to trade down a 4th.....
and I believe we did trade down for an extra pick late in the draft (I know late pick woo-hoo) outside of the Mc Nabb trade, we did a great job on giving a lot less than we have in the past for what we did get, often just sliding down in the draft instead of giving up picks outright.
FO has a familiar tone here...
Now I want to preface this is the fact that I have been dipping into the Kool-Aid a bit this off season. That being said, I’ve been a fan of the Redskins for a Long time, and I’ve lived in Texas, where everyone hates the Skins, since before Snyder started destroying the franchise. Doom and gloom has been a pretty standard prediction for the future of the skins since the first time Snyder’s Big-Name-Free-Agent-Sign-A-Thon failed.
Thing is, I don’t see how this offseason can be viewed as anything but a ray of hope. To say that the Allen/Shannahan brain trust can overhaul last year’s roster 4-12 roster to 9 win team, and then go on to say that will hurt the team in the long run sounds like flawed logic.
Who’s to say that they won’t overhaul next year’s roster and continue to improve the team?
I understand the idea that the best way to build a consistent contender is through the draft, but there’s more to it than that.
And for that matter, what’s wrong with the "win now" attitude? I like winning! I don’t care what Allen and Shanny do in the draft (Really!) as long as they can field a solid winning football team. Also, I don’t care if the average age of our roster is 2 years older than the rest of the league as long as our "old" guys can still ball. The Patriots consistently rank high average age, and I would LOVE to have had there record over the past decade.
FO is knowledgeable, but biased… Frankly they sound like Dallas fans.
I agree with a lot of what he says...
other than the delhomme point which is ridiculous. I feel like its more of the same. Not necessarily the same FA mistakes of Lloyd and Arch Deluxe but STILL not building for the future.
I’m ok with the Mcnabb move and really like the Jaamal brown move but STILL we did these move at the extent of picks. Who’s our QB, RB, WR’s of the future? I’m hopefully Thomas will pan out but it takes more than 1, tana isnt getting younger and QB and RB are obviously huge needs in the future.
hail
I'm not worried about RBs
Shanny and our RB coach have a history of pulling RBs out of a hat. We can pick one up in the late rounds and they should be immediately productive. We may not even have to do that until the 2012 draft if the old horses we have hold up collectively.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
I don't think we're actually losing any picks in the Brown deal
just moving back some rounds in the draft.
Yes, as far as I remember
I think that was one of the sweetest deals we’ve made even going back prior to the Cerrato error era.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
It was certainly good value and filled a desperate need.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Don't see the overall FO plan?
I didn’t understand that statement at all. Besides being harsh as others have stated, I’d like to know which if any NFL franchises have shared their player and team development plans with this guy. A stupid statement IMO. Perhaps someone in the FO pissed him off by not leaking any info for a change.
Everyone knows that Shanny and Allen are keeping their plans close to the vest.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
that's a really good point
it is a little lazy to simply say “IMO their plan sucks.” Since when have nfl teams disclosed their long-term strats? i’d guess we can probably chalk it up to the fact we’re easy targets because of our dumpster fire history with personnel moves & the draft
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 29, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
The future is anyone's guess, but Snyder's past is awful for all to see.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I can see why you are concerned
but even though some of the actions ShannyAllen have taken appear to be in the mold of their predecessors, they are still doing what every other team does with trades and FAs and they are doing it well and in a manner that is still retaining a lot of picks compared to previous years. Their machinations are called by the same name, but they are inherently different in terms of value for dollar, value of player, and limited loss of picks. In other words, there is every reason to believe that the FA players who make this team will play far better than the mistakes of the past without excessively compromising future drafts.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
From your mouth to Danny's ears.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I mostly agree with FO
Though I do think the way the CBA affected things it was gonna skew all FA acquisitions to be heavy on old journeymen. If he approaches next year like this I would be sad. We need to use a First rounder on a QB in the next draft or 2, we lack depth all along the roster. Though I do like the Brown trade. Still judging from our moves so far I understand FO’s viewpoint though think the Urban Meyer thing was some journalistic hyoperbole.
It’s not so much our average age but how it skews out. The Saints had a similar average age but it was composed differently. They were ravaged at CB but their depth guy was Jenkins, a first rounder. We are 1 injury away from starting Tryon or Buchanon. When they had their LT go down they could bring in a 4th rounder with 2 years of grooming, we had Heyer. That is a direct result of years or giving away picks. You end up with journeymen and scrubs as your backups instead of developing players. We easily could be in a world of hurt next year and have done little to address depth. Bringing in lots of guys years removed from relevance, journeymen, guys coming off injury or out of the league, and scrubs and calling it depth is very much what Cerrato did. Let’s hope it’s a function of the CBA issues and not Shanny’s long term plan.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 29, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Developing Players
Joe Bugel seemed to be trying to develop young players, and thought he was succeeding. Unfortunately, he far overrated his rookies, walk-ons and projects. Think Heyer, Rinehart, Montgomery, Batiste, Williams. Developing young players is easier said than done. My gut opinion is that, usually, third stringers don’t develop into starters. Top players look like top players right from the start.
Who knows if Bugel liked what he had, or if he knew he wasn't going to get anything else to work with.
No coach with half a brain undermines his technical boss (the GM)
If you draft well, you have a couple early picks and a couple developing late picks, all waiting in the wings to step up when your vet starters get hurt.
We haven’t had that since before free agency.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I've posted this sentiment a few other times
With Gibbs I, I never had to worry about whether the HC/FO were doing their jobs. You are correct in that any time someone went down there was almost always a more than adequate replacement available.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
The FO report appears a bit biased.
That being said, the biggest flaw to their position is in their assumption that ShanAllenhan will be doing the same thing they did this year in future years; namely bringing in veteran players rather than younger ones.
Let’s put this in perspective. Raise your hand if you think confidence would be high at Redskin’s Park if ShanAllenhan went 4-12 this year? I don’t think they’ll be many takers on that one. . . Our fan base is one of the most fanatical in the league, when it comes to winning. This has been evidenced, in the past, by our proclivity to shout out for the canning of a QB when things aren’t going well (anyone out there remember the Sonny/Kilmer/Theismann years?).
Shanny knows he has to win more than five games THIS year, in order to put a longer-term plan in placement. If he doesn’t, the grumblings will arise.
He’s done what he could with what he inherited, by bringing in veterans that he doesn’t have to baby-sit NOW—veterans who can start immediately, and who can hopefully just get us to mediocrity (7 or 8 wins) this season. If this happens, he has something of a base team installed, from which he can then move in an intelligent way into future drafts.
Admittedly, he didn’t have much to choose from, as most veterans out there are on the market for a reason: they’re either hurt, mediocre, or they want a bigger contract. We’ve taken a few of the first, many of the second, and only Jamaal for the third (and he’s well worth the 3+mil per year considering our woeful protection last year).
ShanAllenhan has given up two draft picks next year, but he did this for an obvious reason. I love JC as a person, but he hasn’t demonstrated (often) the ability to be a true leader of the team, or to be able to come back in the 4th, with 2 minutes left. Both of these elements are crucial to turning the team around, and D-Mac has demonstrated these elements.
FO can smack all they want to about what they perceive to be ShanAllenHan’s plan, but the proof will be in the pudding. If he can take what he was handed, turn it into something better THIS year, then hopes will be high at the Park coming into next year’s draft.
And never underestimate the power of belief, and of support. If this second coming of the Over-the-hill-gang can come together, through the disciplinarian approach of an established mentor, we WILL see improvement this year, both in the confidence demonstrated on the field and in the win column.
Sam Huff always extemporizes about the FEELING that a team has when it comes out onto the field, about whether they EXPECT to win or if they are just showing up. I think we’ve all seen enough of the latter in the past few years, mainly because of a lack of confidence and leadership in the program itself. At least ShanAllenhan have done something about that—by bringing in veterans from winning programs, instituting a ‘door-closed policy’ to the owner, and also in making it plain that no one is going to be above competition from their peers.
Tell me that bringing in 15 rookies can do that for a program, and I have some lovely beach front acreage in Nebraska that I’d like to sell to you.
And to FO: well, they can FOff.
by landuin on Jul 29, 2010 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The crux of FO's point wasn't that bringing in youth is never going to happen
Just that it hasn’t happened under Snyder, this off-season included.
Everyone can see what Shanahan’s logic is this year. And again, nobody disagrees that we’ll be better. What remains to be seen is if Shanahan is going to inject the of blue chip prospects that we will need (soon) once our old guard of +/- 30 year olds starts going down hill faster.
Optimistic fans have faith that the roster will get the youth it needs. Which is fine. Some of us don’t. That’s also fine.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Selective memory?
“Jason Campbell is the furthest thing from a WCO QB, which was evident with his slow release and problems with accuracy.”
I just have to say 2 things.
1. Campbell had a very quick release after Zorn became coach.
2. He had no protection and the play calling was atrocious.
People should stop being revisionists and tell it like it is. Campbell is no Mcnabb, but it seems like he’s the scapegoat for everything that went wrong.
He did fine with Gibbs when they had an o-line, WRs, a running game and some decent play calling. And that was when he had his slow release!
I’m rooting for him in Oakland. Hope he’s a FA when McNabb retires or breaksdown physically.
Very interesting tidbit about JC last year
I heard the interview yesterday on ESPN980 with Colt Brennan, and it told a very interesting tale about last year’s Zorn/WCO, and the difference between that, and this year’s offensive scheme, from a QB’s perspective. I will try to relate the salient points, as I remember them.
Colt was very excited about this year’s scheme. When asked what was different from last year’s, he said these things.
“We are allowed a ‘hot’ read this year, and we were not allowed that in last year’s version of the WCO.” Asked by Larry to elaborate, Colt said this.
In last year’s WCO, the QB came to the line with a play called. If he perceived that there would be more D-line rushers than the play was called to defend against, he had to audible to a different version of the play—one that essentially picked up the extra man coming.
This was extremely stressful to the QB, because he not only had to read the defense to see if the play called matched up man for man with the rushers, but he had to know where the extra man was coming from (ie. LB, Corner, Safety, etc.). Then, he had to call the correct audible to pick up the supposed ‘extra D-man’.
No wonder we always seemed to go on long counts on almost every snap. . . (I remember how Gibbs One was so successful on 4th and goal, or 4th and short, for oftentimes they would go on ‘first sound’, which gave the defence little time to prepare. I always wondered why we NEVER did this in the last two years)
In any event, Colt said that the QBs were now allowed a ‘hot’ read, which he explained further. In the new scheme, when the QB sees a blitz coming, he automatically checks down to the TE or the RB on a quick hitter or quick out. I can’t remember if Colt said there was an audible to do that, only that he said that they were not allowed to do this last year.
In other words, in last year’s version of the WCO, the QB had to stick to the original number one receiver that the play was designed to go to, and the QB also had to audible to pick up any extra D-man coming.
In light of this information, it becomes quite clear why JC often struggled. I think very few QB’s would have flourished with this type of scheme, much less become proficient in it quickly.
In summary, last year’s scheme both extended the QB’s time (concentration) before the snap, and also added to his unease after the snap, as he was shackled into staying with a particular receiver—one that might never come open if he (the QB) had not precisely detected the actual blitzing man’s position, and called the proper protection package.
With the ‘hot’ read, the QB is able to go anywhere with the ball, at his judgement, and in the time-frame allowed by how many blitzing D-men come.
I think D-Mac will do fine with this new scheme. The old scheme, as described by Colt, was a real mess from the QB’s POV.
No hot reads with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL
jesus Zorn was incompetent. He was the Cerrato of Head Coaches.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Seattle traded the 40th
pick in last years draft for Charlie Whitehurst
I’d rather have Donavan than that guy any day
So…why are people afraid to say negative things about New England or some other team with virtually a complete change in talent? …
I say the Skins do better than New England once Kyle and Mike get things installed
thats a pretty tall order...
while I think NE is going through a “down” patch (for them) I think that you can count on Bellichik getting back on top within a year or two.
What are you talking about?
The Patriots are returning virtually every projected starter, especially the key players (Brady, Moss, the OL, Welker/Edelmann, Warren, Merriweather, Mayo, Wilfork)
And if you can’t figure out why a Kraft-owned, Belichek-coached team is getting more benefit of the doubt than a Snyder team, I can break it down for you.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins

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