Football Outsiders 2010 Almanac Nails Redskins Preview: Better Now, Worse Later
by smutsboy1 on Jul 27, 2010 9:54 AM EDT
112 comments
They will be better this year, and worse in the long run.
Highlights (lowlights?):
- ...the Redskins haven’t built a true contender. They’ve built another version of their 2005 team, which went 10-6 in Gibbs’ second season.
- The 2010 Redskins have even worse long-range prospects than their 2005 counterparts, who at least surrounded Brunell with a young group of offensive weapons, had a pair of bookend offensive tackles in their prime, and possessed a few other assets. This year’s Redskins have an alarming number of players who are about to simultaneously grow old...
- ...Some in the Redskins organization will feel vindicated when the team loses in the second round of the playoffs. Snyder and others will convince themselves that they made all the right moves. Allen could win Executive of the Year if he takes the team from four wins to ten. There will be a lot of backslapping for a very small accomplishment. And of course, that will only encourage Snyder and company to climb back on the horse.
Basically they argue that the NFC East will have a down year, we weren't as bad as our record last year, McNabb, the new OTs and Shanahan represent a big improvement, and so we will contend for a playoff spot.
BUT
For a team that has to rebuild we actually got older. We did things like opt for McNabb over, say, Delhomme or Derek Anderson or JCampbell and a rookie QB or a defensive playmaker like Sergio Kindle (pre-ICU visit).
They argue (with more actual facts and stats) what I've been yelling about since the day we traded for McNabb: We improved for 2010, but in terms of rebuilding a youthful core that could contend for years, we actually regressed.
Sigh, such is life in Dannyland and such is why I'm so down on most of the moves we make.
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Yea
I got an advanced copy of it and have already conducted an email interview w/ the writer. I mean, he absolutely blasted the Redskins in this section of the book. I thought some of his analysis was off, which he explained. SBN hasn’t given us the go ahead to post our interviews, but I will be as soon as they do.
It’s tough to ask him any stat related questions b/c both sides of the ball were over-hauled, but we definitely went at it a little bit. He predicted 9 wins this year, and Shanahan to be fired after 3 years. Ouch.
Hogs Haven. On Twitter. And Facebook.
Does anyone think this isn't likely?
Shanahan to be fired after 3 years.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
on that note
I think Mike is outta here in 3 years but don’t think he will leave his son a pos team to work with either.
I think Kyle is one of if not the best young OC in the league and will develope into one of the best head coaches in the league soon.
Mike and Allen are going to put the pride back in this franchise before handing it over to Kyle.
So we may go to the playoffs this year and maybe next barring serious injury’s but then i think we will see a youth movement before year three and with that movement we’re gonna see the beginning of the Kyle Shanahan movement. Young team young HC and a whole lot of pride to carry them thru a year of rebuilding. I think over all it’s a very exciting time for Skins fans.
HTTR
I am somewhat hopeful for this scenario...
If things go well, and Donovan stays (reasonably) healthy and productive, I think Mike and Donovans tenure could be intertwined. In a best case scenario we can get 4-5 years out of McNabb (5 is a stretch, but are talking hypotheticals here) hopefully giving the incoming QB 2-3 years to train before getting thrown into the fire. I could easily see Mike and Donovan leaving together making the transition a bit smoother. That being said, I hope Kyle is still around in 4-5 years, what is “age appropriate” for a head coach has obviously changed drastically over the last 5-7 years and he might become a “hot commodity” very quickly.
I disagree
I think that they are rebuilding while trying to stay competitive & I think that they will be better next season ( 2011 ). I think they needed to trade JC, he was done here with the fans & the team & I think that he wanted out & to be able to make a fresh start. I think that Shannahan will draft his QB of the future next year ( which has superior prospects coming out as compared to this year ) I also think that it will take a year for our 3-4 defense to gel as a unit & acquire the right personnel. I hope that we are a 500 team this year but IMHO the future looks brighter now than it has in years. I also highly doubt that either Shannahan or Allen gets fired in three years.
I don't see rebuilding anywhere. An old team got older.
We made one move to add real youthful talent, then turned around and traded two valuable draft picks for an aging QB.
Whether JC had to go, trading away picks for a 30+ y.o. QB is not what a rebuilding team does.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Somebody has to be under center
& if it was not going to be JC I am glad that it is Donovan McNabb who will also be able to mentor a young QB before turning the team over to him. We did get younger in key positions, most notably our offensive line on both ends. We added two other O-linemen as well in Capers & Cook who we will be developing over the next couple of seasons. I also wish that we could have filled all of our needs in one draft & off season but with the shape that this team was in, that was impossible.
We shouldn't have replaced JC with an aging QB who cost two good draft picks
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Let's wait and see.
Were I a betting man, I’d put money down right now that McNabb will be far more valuable in the next five seasons to the Redskins than whatever rookies get drafted in the slots we gave up for him. This is a team that hasn’t had consistently good QB play since .. oh hell, guess we have to go back to Theismann. The O-Line is at least twice as good as last year, the WR and RB positions aren’t any worse, and the TE corp is one of the best in the league.
Is this a team that will last as-is for five seasons? Not even close. Does it give the team a chance to be successful, without reverting to full-on rebuilding mode, losing talent already on the roster as players want to jump ship to a contender, losing assistant coaches who don’t want to get into that situation, and ultimately and finally alienating a fanbase already bruised and battered from the past 10 years? Absolutely. We’re no worse off than we were last year in terms of age and the future of the team, but we have a better core of talent to build around. Not rebuild … build. Shanahan would never have signed with the team if it were in rebuild mode, that’s for lesser-known coaches like Sparano, Spagnuolo, Wisenhunt, yes even Zorn. You hire a big name coach to take what you have and make it better, not throw it all out and start over.
There’s no need to constantly predict falling skies; eventually yes, you’ll have the satisfaction of being right, but until then, you’re just going to be miserable and bring everyone else down too. Try looking at the upside possibilities for this team and the FO’s strategy, instead of always concentrating on the downsides.
I don't really see an argument against taking our lumps and rebuilding
the way most successful teams do, other than an unhappy fan base.
a) Since when has that stopped Danny from doing anything?
b) If Danny is taking cues from the fan base, god help us all
What you call ‘predicting falling skies’ I call, ‘Holding Snyder responsible for 10 years of failure and demanding more of our team’.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I agree with you...
With DNabb, I feel we got a QB that will take our offense to new heights.
Coach felt that he could not use JC. I will admit that I am and always will be a JC fan. I was disappoinnted that we got rid of him but we need some more leadership.
Now about getting younger, Allen and Shanahan will make this team much younger next year. If we have a better record this year and get the 15th pick or lower pick in the first round. I believe that the will trade the pick down and pick up a bunch of picks to make up for these trades that they made.
I Agree
There exists a lot of young unproven / underdeveloped Talented Athletics on this team. I think that those Talents / Skiills will begin being developed during the MS period. Remember MS has a Coaching staff that does more than order guys around.They are teaching / training.
MS may decide after sucess to turn a winning team over to KS.
There is also a good mix of guys who are only going to be there 1-2 years and those vets are also teaching the younger players .
D.Mac is a proven 5 time pro QB who still possesses a strong arm and tremendous leadership abilities.D.Mac argubly is better than he has shown in recent years, because of not having had a running game and a strong protective OL. He is also a good mentor for any upcoming QB. D. Mac is ideal for the Skins current situation. BELIEVE go Skins THIS GLASS IS HALF FULL
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 27, 2010 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with the sentiment though
why would anyone in their right mind want Delhomme or Anderson as their starting QB? yuk. Also Sergio Kindle just got mentioned in the news because he fell down some stairs.
Next year, IMO we need to take a high round RB IMO, that would work wonders on developing a core base of winners.
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 26, 2010 4:35 PM EDT reply actions
nobody thinks Delhomme or Anderson are good QBs
the point is that we needed to keep the draft picks and suffer with a mediocre veteran QB. That’s what rebuilding teams do.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
why even mention them?
clearly keeping Campbell was far superior option to signing any of them.
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 26, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That would have been fine with me.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
*Takes a swallow*
This is a team built for the here and now. Obviously a 9 win team would be a massive improvment that would show me we are headed in the right direction. Pieces will be shuffled and I don’t believe we will be just handing draft picks away like buy one get one free pizza coupons anymore. More draft picks = more potential starting pieces to replace aging ones.
gulp
In my humble opinion I do believe this team has the pieces to be an NFC sleeper THIS year. There is always one every year no one saw coming. I believe if the players get on the field and pieces start falling together even FA will fall in line. They have to believe they can win this year. It could happen and I will keep drinking this fine tasting Kool-Aid and hope I am imagining this funny aftertaste!
The Football Outsiders quote and my comment following.
“# …the Redskins haven’t built a true contender. They’ve built another version of their 2005 team, which went 10-6 in Gibbs’ second season.
- The 2010 Redskins have even worse long-range prospects than their 2005 counterparts, who at least surrounded Brunell with a young group of offensive weapons, had a pair of bookend offensive tackles in their prime, and possessed a few other assets. This year’s Redskins have an alarming number of players who are about to simultaneously grow old…"
The writer assumes that the Skins have some kind of final product for the 2010 season. I have made the same point repeatedly, that the options were limited for ShanAllen this season given the limited number of draft picks and the free agent situation where so many players were restricted. I have mixed bag feelings about the McNabb trade with draft picks, it has it’s good points and it’s bad points. The number of unrestricted free agents between age 26 and 30 should be greater in the 2011 off season. The roster should be able to become younger, but not as young as many other teams.
While the team has quite a few players that are “about to simultaneously grow old,” the Team is not locked into having
all of these players on the 2011 roster. Forget the age of the punter. Phillip Daniels, Casey Rabach, Clinton Portis, Johnson, and some other players will probably be gone/replaced. Dockery still has a few years left and does not need to be replaced in 2011. If the Team goes 8-8 they should have about the 13th pick in the 2011 draft. So the objective of the FO is to build a winning attitude and set the stage for more improvement in 2011 and 2012.
I still think we should have traded for Santonio Holmes
even with the suspension, I think we’d be a playoff team if we had him on our team.
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 27, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you’l be amazed by what our current receivers can do with a QB (McNabb) whose brain is fast enough to get through more than 1 read and isn’t afraid to THROW THE BALL….DOWN THE FIELD. that was my rallying cry during the JC era. I like JC, he’s a good guy, but his is not a quick thinker, and he didn’t have the balls to ever throw a ball more than 15 yards downfield.
a life: it's the shit that happens while you're waiting for moments that never come -Lester Freamon
You'll forgive me if I'm disappointed at another off-season of trading away good picks and saying
“the youth movement will start next year”
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
that sums it up for me too
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Jul 27, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
We didn't lose that many picks
and we picked up a former Pro Bowl LT/RT and a Pro Bowl QB both good for several more years. It would take another bad year to get high draft picks to come away with an excellent draft next year that may or may not pan out. Yes we need to get young, but we are vastly improved for the next few years at probably the two most important positions on offense. If our WR corps gets its act together along with our TEs, we are set for several years. I’m only worried that I’ll run out of Kool-aid. :)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
We only lost 2 this year, right?
Or is it 3 because I know we have 2 picks wrapped up in DMac and one in LT Brown. We are going to get a pick from the saints so that is a plus.
Another bonus is if we get a low first rounder then we can trade down and collect more picks. No one wanted to trade with us this year because we were to high in the draft.
giving up a 2nd and a 3rd for McNabb is significant.
2nd and 3rd rounders are by a wide margin the best value for finding talent and filling out your starting line up with good not great players who are likely to out-play their cost in salary.
In the context of the fact that we do something similar almost every year, it becomes even more significant.
Every year some fans justify the trading-for-veterans by claiming the youth movement is going to ‘start next year’. To date, it simply hasn’t happened by a Snyder-owned team.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Anti-D.Mac
I dont understand this Anti McNabb attitude
1. He is NOT a valueless QB
2..He is a proven Pro-Bowl QB
3..He is one of the top 7-8 QBs in the entire NFL (opinion)
4..He has at least 2-3-4 good years left
5..He is a great role-model and is going to be good for the Entire Redskin Nation
5. Why would you Not want an available Pro Bowl QB who Wanted to come to the Skins
Respectfully,Submitted
GO Skins
sbredskinsnabb
I am not and never have doubted McNabb's ability
However trading picks for him wasn’t the right move for an aging, mediocre team.
I can rehash the reasons why if you’d like.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
How is this year different?
The 2010 Redskins have even worse long-range prospects than their 2005 counterparts, who at least surrounded Brunell with a young group of offensive weapons, had a pair of bookend offensive tackles in their prime, and possessed a few other assets.
Isn’t that what we have now, but around McNabb instead of Brunell (obvious upgrade)?
Not really
Any of the ‘youth’ around McNabb is completely unproven (Williams, Thomas). (And Fred Davis at TE2). Whereas Brunell had in-their-prime Moss & Portis.
Brunell had in his prime Randy Thomas and a not-old Rabach, both are far better than Hicks and old Rabach.
We assume Trent Williams is as good as Samuels was.
We hope Jamaal Brown gives us 3+ years of what Jansen gave us for years.
Not really comparable situations, IMO
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I understand the "not proven" argument.
Is easy to hide behind. But most players aren’t “proven” in this league.
Matt Schaub was an injury case until last year, then put up more yards than anyone. Aaron Rodger was still unproven two years ago.
Even perceived great young runningbacks like Steve Slaton and Matt Forte, who were thought to be proven weapons fell off their second years.
When Moss came to the Redskins, he was criticized as being the inferior side of the Coles, because he hadn’t proven that his 2003 year was a fluke.
The Saints were voted the 15th ranked team during last offseason’s 32 in 32 on nfl.com because they had a lot of unproven weapons (ie Reggie).
I could go on for every team, but the point is: there are only a handful of proven players in the league (McNabb has a case to be one). We have young talent, eager to win, and putting in “hell week” effort when they don’t have to.
And when the pieces all appear to be ‘proven’, expectations get too high and the team falters (NY Jets this year).
Right, we won't know how the team will play until it plays
In the meantime, it sure seems like this team is built with lesser and/or older talent than the 2005 team.
In fact, some of the key players are the same, just 5 years older. (Rabach, Dock, CP, Moss)
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Williams is no where near the type of Prospect Samuels was coming out
I understand when people compare Williams to Samules because he was the last highly drafted LT but coming out Samuels was considered a once every few years type elite prospect. No one considers Williams tha kind of prospect.. Williams would give up more negative plays in 3 games than Samuels would in his entire college career.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 29, 2010 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree. the '05 OL was miles better
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
This guy who keeps
harping on the draft picks needs to realize that sometimes people strike out when drafting players. What are the odds that the picks we gave up will turn into a Pro Bowl type player. There are better odds on them being busts, especially given our drafting records.
valid point as well
But the flip side is who’s to say the free agent coming in will work? (Blloyd, etc). Might as well be young if you’re going to gamble.
It’s killing me I have to hold my post with my interview with this FO guy….damn politics.
Hogs Haven. On Twitter. And Facebook.
by Kevin Ewoldt on Jul 27, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
True
but there is a big difference between B. Lloyd and McNabb. And Our QB position has been vastly improved any way you look at it. Why is it then that no one is complaining about the Jamaal Brown trade? Same thing right? Trading picks for an O-lineman coming off a season ending injury. But no one can argue that he will be better than say Chad Rinehart, who was a 3rd round pick. So should we have foregone that trade so we could infuse our team with such draft gems like Rinehart. I say No. And nor should we have foregone the trade for McNabb in hopes to pick up someone like say Taylor Jacobs a 2nd round bust.
Drafting is the only way to add affordable young talent
Drafting is hard and full of failures, but it’s still the best way to build a team.
No consistently good team has been built any other way.
(Colts, Chargers, Eagles, Pats, Steelers, Giants, aka the teams that make the playoffs every year)
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Yes
Draft picks are hit and miss. After the second round, a pure crapshoot.
What are the odds that the picks we gave up will turn into a Pro Bowl type player. There are better odds on them being busts, especially given our drafting records.
This exact reason is why the Redskins need MORE draft picks, not less. You can’t hit on draft picks unless you HAVE and USE them. Increase the odds with more picks!
by BrokenClipboard on Jul 28, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The round of the draft pick is significant.
1st round picks are usually successful. The success rate goes down with each round. The success in 7th round picks is not zero, but it might take a half dozen to get a good player for depth (varies by position). I don’t know any hard and fast rules, but agree somewhat with Donnio that it is a crap-shoot in many respects. UDFA may have nearly as much success as 7th rounders. BrokenClipboard hits the nail on the head, because the probabilities improve with more picks, especially from the 3rd round on down. The Skins have some offensive linemen that were 3rd round are lower most of which are questionable as backups, i.e., 3rd rd. Derrick Dockery R and Chad Rinehart ?; 4th rd. Kory Lichtensteiger ?; 5th rd. Clint Oldenburg C; 7th rd. Will Montgomery <, Selvish Capers ?, Erik Cook ?; UDFAs Artis Hicks R, Stephon Heyer <, Edwin Williams <, William Robinson C.
IMO, R = replacement quality. < = less than replacement quality, ? = not sure yet, C = probable cuts
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 28, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
We were obviously
not going anywhere with Campbell…… so do you really want to draft a young QB to learn from him? I would want someone like McNabb teaching my young QB to play the position correctly and if that means trading away picks, but ultimately putting us in a better position to win now, well I know what I’d do.
veteran QB mentoring is overrated
And your theory that McNabb is going to mentor a young QB assumes we draft one next year.
That’s a ‘what if’ game.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Assume
Doesnt that also assume that D.Mac is only going to be here a year or two.
Hasn’t D.Mac already had a positive IMPACT
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 27, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Based on his injury history and the typical veteran QB career
it’s safe to assume he only has 2-3 good years left, at most
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
+1 just ask Aaron Rodgers
most reports are that Bret Favre gave him zippo mentoring, and he turned out pretty ok.
My doublestuffed oreos fell on the floor of my mom's basement. Save me swagman!
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jul 27, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish we had gotten Bradford, Claussen or McCoy
but not because they would have learned from JC (what a thought!). Hopefully they would have learned enough in camp, from the coaches and in pre-season games to eventually take over as starting QB.
Agree (with spending a 2nd rounder on a QB)
As I said, QB-mentoring is overrated. Coaching matters more, and look! we have two great QB coaches
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Really
Are you proclaiming KS as great already…I dont know about that , yet!
I do suspect that he will be.
Wondering what he and his dad thought / feels about the M.Nabb deal ??
I also think that QB mentoring does matter whether its voluntary or involuntary.
Hoping that all these things turn out WELL for future (S) Redskins
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 27, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Drafting is hard, yet the only way the good teams have been built
But by all means, try to do something nobody has done in the modern era: build a foundation out of traded veterans and free agents.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I'm not advocating for trading all of our picks
But I think there is a good blend. And for a team in need of a QB and OT, I think we did the right thing in trading our picks for pro bowl talents. Those positions were bettered immediately. I don’t want to sit back and suffer through rebuilding years, waiting to see whether or not our picks work out. Why can’t we have some winning seasons while also drafting some youth?
It's a matter of personal choice
Personally I’d rather be awful for a year or two, while watching young stars grow up, rather than stretch it out over a longer period of time.
Watching a bad team is easier when you know you’re watching your future core grow up.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Yeah, ask the Orioles
Who keep making promises for “next year” and then keep getting worse. Promises that could only potentially come true suck. You’d rather sludge through another 4-12 season then get wins? Please, I really want to hear this optimism about “the future” when we have a bad start. I have my doubts that you’ll still possess it.
Watching a bad team is never easy, and I have a sneaky feeling you know it.
I'm back. YAY SUMMER!
If Snyder's as incompetent as Angelos, then that's a whole different story
But people assure me he’s not, right?
Please, I really want to hear this optimism about "the future" when we have a bad start. I have my doubts that you’ll still possess it.
I appreciate your assumptions, but I’m happy to walk you through my love of the Caps for the past decade if you’d like.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Smart
There are some smart and knowledgeable Redskins fans….it makes one wonder how this situation got to this point (last Year)
I think that last years team would have been better with better management/coaching….thats is to say that last years team did have talent and the ability to win more games.
I dont think that this is an OLD,OLD,OLD team. Ofcourse there needs to be rebuilding….But I dont think that wholesale rebuilding is required…there IS skill and talent on this TEAM
The right blend of youth and veterans will make for a better future….the installation of TEAM / ATTITUDE is going to become the foundation of rebuilding the talent that has been sleeping
I think that this is JUST the beginning
Any news about last weeks " Hell’s Week?
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 27, 2010 10:46 AM EDT reply actions
Any news about last weeks " Hell’s Week?
Amazingly not. I tried twittering Darrelle Revis about MK and DT…nothing back. And he’s on twitter all frickin day.
Hogs Haven. On Twitter. And Facebook.
by Kevin Ewoldt on Jul 27, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
This is one
of the things I love about McNabb. He is a natural leader and is going to help out some of the young players on our team.
Leadership
Immeasurable !
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 29, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
damn i was looking forward to hearing about that,
but i guess it’s true what they say…
What happens in Hell Week,
Stays in Hell Week
or better yet;
maybe Revis doesn’t wanna talk about it cause DT and MK smoked him up and down the field!
Damn i guess that Irish Coffee was stronger than i thought…
Would you really be happy with this?
We did things like opt for McNabb over, say, Delhomme or Derek Anderson or JCampbell and a rookie QB or a defensive playmaker like Sergio Kindle (pre-ICU visit).
As part of a long-term rebuilding plan?
Absolutely.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Really????
You would rather have Delhomme/Anderson/Campbell and a player who might be out for the season because he “fell down the steps” and fractured his skull over McNabb???? Suspect chin music…
c'mon, you're not actually using a freak accident to forward your argument are you?
The Ravens shouldn’t have drafted Kindle b/c he eventually fell down the stairs?
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
It only works as an argument if
it was the purple drank that sent him tumbling. Well, sorta…
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Football Outsiders Annual (FOA) quote/interpretation from Mr. Irrelevant.
“FOA 2010’s projected NFC playoff teams:
Falcons 9.6, Cardinals 9.4, Packers 9.4, Eagles 9.3, Redskins 9.2, Giants 8.7
Note: The Vikings (8.6), Saints (8.5) and Buccaneers (8.0) just missed. Also note: The NFC appears to be wide open.
A few things to consider about Washington’s strong showing here:
1. The Skins only won four games last season, but FOA’s numbers say they should’ve won 5.8.
2. In 90 percent of FOA’s projections, the Skins win seven games or more.
3. Dallas is only projected to win 7.5 games.”
FOA projects Dallas as the worst team in the NFC East. It could happen if Roma gets knocked out of the season early, but it is not likely. Also projects the Eagles to be the top NFC East team which also is unlikely.
I trust FOA's methods
But I don’t see how we can be put ahead of the Giants
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Giants have issues
starting with their number one draft pick CB going down in a car wreck. There also seems to be a groundwork for implosion and a coach on the hot seat – but that’s pure speculation right now. We’ll see…
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Excuse Me ,Sir
Before we REJECT D.Mac lets at least give him a try…Has he willingly been a positive asset to the Skins so far??? He Has.
I think that his Leadership will really improve the receiving corp. He has a strong arm and will throw the long ball…and everywhere else. Especially If the Run game is at least above average .
Secondly…do we Know ,Yet just how much talent is going to show up because of this new coaching staff…didnt all of the recent (4-5 years) Draft picks have potential ? Potential that may yet be dormant..talent that might now be challenged and required…I think that there are more Talented Players on this team than we realize..
MS is going to take full advantage of this opportunity…he is a Man who is a Mans Coach..He is going to finally Build this into a TEAM!! If AH comes on board…it could get real good!!
Give it a chance win baby win …from Now on
Go Skins
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 29, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not rejecting Dmac on talent or leadership
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Agreed
I like the passion and all….but stop bonging the hater-aid for a second focus on the positive.
1. MUCH improved coaching staff(underrated commodity)
2. Two solid bookends with Williams potential being HUGE
3. A true leader at QB….JC is a follower, Derek who?, and don’t ever mention Choke DelLAME’s name again in association with this team
4. Shannahan had a year to sit back and study the evolving game…..scary
5. Discipline, Respect of the players, New Attitudes, etc.
6. Shuisham’s gone
7. Randle El’s not returning punts
I can really go all day, but my point is simply to let it play out and give the new regime a chance. These guys HAVE to be better than what we have had to endure over the past 10+ years.
After 10 years of failure you can't fault me for looking at the big picture
Nobody disagrees that we’ll be better than we were last year. In fact I believe my headline states exactly the opposite.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Ok
We sowed some guts in 05 and in 07, but this just feels new…..Cerrato-less and Snyder is (cough-cough) maturing?
Just tired of the negative shit brotha
Snyder's fault, not mine
Just tired of the negative shit brotha
If the posts bring you down, just ignore them.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
The youth movement starts when Kyle takes over.
Mike doesn’t have the time or patience to do a long-term rebuild. He wants to win, do it fast, and ride off into the sunset. When Kyle takes over, we build long-term around him as our head coach, like the saints did around Peyton.
I don't think they've thrown away the future
In other posts I’ve suggested that they’ve gone “old and cheap”, and deferred any youth movement, in an effort to “win now”. Although there could be some truth to that tactically, I can see that they still have plenty of chances to just keep building a winner, replacing older players with younger ones, position by position, year by year, no dramatic strategy. Just get the best players they can, wherever and however they can get them. The “old and cheap” occurred only at WR and RB and they got some young players there, too. I like D-Mac and think he is the best available QB for this year and probably next year, but do wish they had grabbed a really good QB prospect in the draft (although I still have some hope Colt can prove to be the “QB of the future”). So on this thread, I see the “better now” part, without the "worse later’ part, although that could happen.
Giving up two picks for McNabb makes us better now, and worse in 3 years or so
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Total speculation, man
Go back and look at the 1999 (I think, maybe 2000, too lazy to look it up) draft, the one that we got New Orleans’s entire draft for giving them the right to pick Ricky Williams. In the first and second rounds of that draft, we picked Champ Bailey and Jon Jansen. Not another single pick in that draft is a name you’d know. We also got their first round in the 2000 draft, giving us back to back first-round picks in 2000. Lavarr Arrington and Chris Samuels were selected in that round. The rest of the 2000 draft? Not a single notable name, again.
What we’re seeing here is a notable trend. Past the second round, drafting a future star is the great exception, not even close to the rule. It can sometimes get you quality depth, as we’re all hoping with Capers and Cook this season, but you don’t look at a fifth round pick as a possible five-year starter for your team. If you can parlay that pick into a proven, Pro Bowl caliber leader for your team, YOU DO IT.
For the third time in this post: drafting talent is hard and full of misses
but unfortunately it’s still the best way to build a team.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
wrong
Please Stop,please HATIN on D.Mac you are making it personal , about D.Mac.Cant you see ANY good in D.Mac ?? If so,why do you insist on making these negative projections solely based on the uncertainty of those draft picks vs a Pro-Bowl QB. Didnt both KS and MS choose D.Mac??
Sir you really seem to only be angry with D.Mac.
If D.Mac helps us for the next 2-3 years while the TEAM continues being rebuilt…how do you get NEGATIVE from that?
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 29, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
If there is any position on the field to give up draft picks for....
it’s the QB. More specifically, a pro bowl caliber QB. Shanahan is doing what he knows best, putting the best team on the field. There is no reason Mcnabb can’t be productive for 3-5 years. FO is going on the basis that every team can pluck a P. Manning or T. Brady out of the draft and have 10-15 glory years. Not going to happen! This type of hallucination can lead to the article you’ve highlighted. Projections are like assholes, everyone has one!
If you look back at what they’ve projected in the past, it’s pretty much a joke. Just another site that crunches numbers and spits out probabilities on the other side. Only difference is they go a little more in depth.
Last year was pretty much a farse for this team. This team has much more talent than the level it plays at. What’s going to happen if this team makes the playoffs in the next three years? All of you writing and posting these articles will all of a sudden change your mind! What happens if we make the playoffs in 4 and/or 5 years from now? I’m sure FO will find a way to say they missed something and I’ll sit back and watch all the stat heads jump on that bandwagon as we’re seeing right now.
Fact is, things are very optimistic right now and articles like this prove that the so called “media” is in a heightened state of hysteria, everything is made out to be a crisis.
That's a really weak critique of FO's methods, analysis, and ownership of past mistakes.
They are, by a wide margin, the most rational and well-researched commentary out there.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Yes they are
But when your choice of " commentary " out there is picking the least worst of a flawed group, it doesn’t matter much anyway. But I understand, many people have nothing better to do. Your opinion that it is a weak critique is just that, your opinion! Stats will ALWAYS be just that, STATS! Their attempt to pigeon hole everything about the game will never work.
Their is literally hundreds of feelings that can’t be measured emotionally, physically and psychologically and never will be. Not to mention the percentage of the game that changes from year to year, the only part of change FO measures from year to year is age. Those feelings have more to do with the game than past stats in my opinion. It’s true part of the game can be predicted with past performance, but with the coaching and cultural change around Redskins park, I’m willing to bet FO will be at least 50% incorrect and I’m not even going off of stats. They do good work at times but many times it’s a crapshoot, and I never hear any excuse as to where they went wrong.
I’m sure many of you sabermetric types will have no idea what I just said. Spending all your time in front of a machine for the first 20 years of your life will tend to leave you clueless.
They admit mistakes and revise their formulas all the time. Every year in fact.
Nobody, including FO, argues that stats are the be all end all predictor of the future, so your sweeping generalizations (and insults to boot!) are pointless and wrong.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Just as pointless as most of their sweeping predictions
and then revising after the fact, wow that’s some real life psychic ability. But it makes for good conversation, that’s about it. Taking FO seriously, well, some have waaaay to much time on their hands.
I wasn’t talking specifically about you or anyone just a generalization. I do tend to hit the nerves of some people who see themselves fiiting the bill though.
Insults, I believe YOU THREW THE VERY FIRST ONE at me last time so deal with it.
• In depth statistical analysis based on comprehensive research, film-watching and databases.
• Complete awareness of the limitations of statistics and the understanding that they are only one way to analyze something like football.
• Annual improvement of formulas and admitting mistakes.
But you think it’s mostly worthless because players are emotional.
Seems reasonable.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Mostly worthless sometimes
Some of the time it’s not, but how do you know when it is and isn’t? You don’t know! Annual improvement of formulals only go so far, there is severe limitations, there is a ceiling to it. At some point it becomes pointless foder.
I like FO and look at there site periodically but growing up as an athlete and listening and talking to many athletes play in a few different sports, some of them semi pro, one of the most valuable pieces of information I got out of almost all of them was that they believed 100% that almost any sport is minimum 90% emotional and mental and the last 10% or less was physical. Once I figured that out my life as an athlete AND everything else in life became very attainable and I realized that these players were not 100% correct but 200% correct.
So you see, when your on the other end of watching some people try and predict the outcome to pro sports it sometimes seems a little silly, that’s not meant as an insult, it’s just the way I feel and what I’ve learned.
Complete awareness of the limitations of statistics and the understanding that they are only one way to analyze something like football…………This is your best analysis yet and if I had to put some kind of number on it I’d say that 10% or less was it, regardless of the statistics. Because if your going to show me how well FO can predict some statistics I’ll show you how well I can predict them to in about 1% of the time FO needs to do it. I’ll bet I’m not to far off.
When FO predicts a 1500 yard runner and he ends up with 1000 yards, to what degree were they right or wrong? Sure, they’ll come up with all the reasons of what went wrong but that’s just more evidence of why it’s like rolling dice at the craps table.
I’m not saying FO is useless just that it has a really low and non penetrating ceiling IMO.
by skinsymets on Jul 28, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thoughtful - thank you
But I think you’re summarizing most of FO’s work as simple predictions like “RB X will get 1500 yards”. But that’s only one of many types of analysis they do.
What I highlighted with this post doesn’t have much to do with their statistical projections and predictions. They wrote a very accurate article, IMO, about the Redskins off-season this year in the context of how Snyder’s teams usually behave, our short term prospects, and our long term ones.
Their (and my) belief that we didn’t do much to help our long-term prospects, and in fact probably hurt them by giving up two early picks for McNabb, isn’t based on complex formulas. It’s based on logic, opinion, and observation. (ie. what all of us are working with). The respect I give them over most other outlets and observers is the body of research they lean on, the game charting they do, and their relative objectivity towards any given NFL team.
I think they’re right that yet again we’re not committing to the full rebuild that an aging roster like ours needs. I think they made a good case for this point. And I think it will be proven true in 2-3 years when we have a new regime and a new philosophy.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Not committing to a full rebuild
What does that have to do with changing to a new regime in 2-3 years. If your argument is that we need a full rebuild, it will take 2-3 years to even get that going, in which case the trigger happy Snyder will pull the plug in 2-3 years anyway. So the thinking to start is already skewed.
I would argue we don’t need a full rebuild for many reasons. We have plenty of good draft picks from the last five years still on the team. Besides, there is only 7 picks per draft, how do we get rid of most of the team and infuse it with mostly 22- 25 year olds? That’s not realistic. What this team needs is a plan, a direction they can believe in. Without a formidable QB, Shanahan recgonizes that the direction or plan is worthless. So I say that if there is any position to give up a draft pick it’s at that position.
I think Shanahan is doing the best for what he has to work with. He’s trying to balance improving without sending this team over the edge for the next three years, in which case there is no guarantee an entire team youth movement will work anyways. Where I think FO goes off track is with the Zorn years, he really had no business being a head coach and as a result I am completly throwing out Zorns 8 play offensive book, 1 of which was the fake field goal. Good news is most of those players are still on the team and we have a coach who can recgonize who the best players are and how to put them in the best situations, something that was missing completely the last two years.
Don’t underestimate Shanahans ability to take a few players this year, prop their stats up, then trade them away for draft picks next year or later. His track record at doing that is one of the best in the league, yet I hear nothing of that from FO.
I’m optimistic, especially if Snyder caved to fan sentiment this year on getting rid of Vinny. I think the fans will give Shanahan the benefit of the doubt and as a result it will keep Snyder happy.
In the end, I think Shanahan is infusing youth, just not in an entire all at once kind of way.
I'd settle for two consecutive years of using a 2nd & 3rd round pick in the same draft
Something we’ve only done once in a decade (’02 & ’03)
Or one year of using a 1st 2nd and 3rd in one draft, something we haven’t done since 2002.
Since 2000, we average 2.4 picks in the first three rounds. You can’t build a winner that way. You just can’t.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Smuts do you have a database on the success of
3rd round picks? It would be interesting to see. You seem to put a lot of emphasis on the 3rd round.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 28, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't, but maybe if I have time. However
I agree with you that likelihood of success lessens each round.
But IMO, between the 3rd and 4th round is a good place to put a tier for expediency’s sake.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
There was a FO article along these lines
I may have posted a link to it on HH at one time. A guy from DC wrote if my recollection is correct.
A pattern should be seen, but I would not start looking at anything in 2009 and maybe not 2008 because it does take some players a little longer to get up to speed even as 2nd rounders. The Eagles’ RT, Winston Justice, last season is a good case in point since it was his 4th season before he became a starter.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 28, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Smuts support
The histogram for T2 supports the 3rd round pick as significant. Fortunately the Skins have 2 tackles that fit the T1 description. See the T2 histogram after the following excerpt.
“The offensive tackle histogram actually does not look particularly top-heavy, but a closer look reveals that most teams fill at least one of their tackle slots with an early round pick. Generally the top guy mans the left side, but that is not always the case. The key is that you need at least one guy on the edge who can be left in one-on-one situations and not need help. Those guys are rare, and are pretty much always picked early. Below are histograms which break down the position into “T1” and “T2”. This is not a reference to Schwarzenegger films or high speed internet connections. T1 is the starter for each team who was drafted earliest. T2 is the starter drafted later." For convenience sake this link is posted twice in this blog -http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2006/draft-position There may be other positions besides T2 that support the 3rd rounds importance, but it is a 75 year old man’s bedtime.
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 28, 2010 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Useful support for my theory
thanks
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
On the other hand, the FO article takes a different stance on QB than Smuts who does not like
the use of the 2010 2nd rd. pick and a 3rd/4th pick in 2011 for McNab.
“The QB position is by far the toughest to fill, and most teams are (and should be) willing to fill it by any means necessary. First round QBs are no sure thing, but anyone picked after the first round appears to be a very long shot that will require several years of development. And even those late round guys that do work out will probably have to move to a new team to be successful. The bottom line here is that until you’ve found your guy you should jump at any opportunity to acquire a quality starter, be it early in the draft, late in the draft, via trade, or through free agency. Don’t pass on a QB early in the draft because you also like a guy that could be had later. If you are really in need of a QB you should probably draft them both.”
The last of 135th comment on the FO draft position article said "teams that had QBs who were drafted in the first round (using your list) went 121-135 last year. Conversely the sixteen teams who didn’t have first rounders as starting QBs last year went 135-121
I’m not saying I can’t be made to believe otherwise, but the data in this article doesn’t make me think that drafting a QB in the first round is a wise investment."
by Jefferson1935 on Jul 29, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
The analysis is sobering but realistic
I think that Shanahan and Allen can make a could Redskins football team. The thing is they’re going to need a minimum of two more draft classes to do it and maybe 3. Trent Williams was a good start but the Cerrato era dried out our draft capabilities. Personally I still question the sense in the McNabb move. Imagine what we could’ve done with that 2nd rounder. Nevertheless McNabb is what we have and so we’re going to have to rely on him. Snyder needs to allow several seasons of solid drafting before a corner is truly turned. I actually think the comparison to 2005 is pretty apt.
I hear ya
After all is said and done…it all boils down to OPINIONS…. Not A Single Guarantee
There may be more Non-Experts right than there will be Experts right ….come seasons end
year after year after year
respectfully submitted
Go Skins
sbredskinsnabb
by sbredskinsnabb on Jul 29, 2010 11:20 AM EDT reply actions
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