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Based on Redskins' 2009 DL Pressure Statistics, Albert is Halfsworth

With the month off leading into training camp, and the help of Neil over at ProFootballFocus, I decided to dive deeper into Haynesworth's stats and just how much his presence helped the sack totals. We exchanged a few emails and Neil took a first jab at Haynesworth's value in relation to Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo's production:

  • Total Pressures by #98 & #99 (Sk, Ht or Hr) = 108
  • Times Haynesworth on field = 57
  • Times Haynesworth not on field =51
  • Of the 57 times he was on the field, the vast majority of the time (43 times) he was playing DRT. Therefore, from looking at the 108 positive instances of Orakpo and Carter pressure I found a maximum of 5 where Haynesworth may have had some impact over and above what may be expected from a standard DT.

    Well, that's not encouraging. Of course this stat only highlights the passing game. Haynesworth will never get the credit he serves from casual fans for his run stuffing ability. The goal line stop versus Brandon Jacobs on the 4th down play week 1 at New York still rings true to me. But Albert was really brought to DC to do one thing: help generate sacks and interceptions. In 2008, the Redskins ranked 28th with 24.0 sacks. In 2009, Washington jumped to 8th with 40.0. Haynesworth is not the only factor in the equation...of course Orakpo is. It's still a gray area, though, exactly how much Albert contributed.

    In 2007, Andre Carter played RDE and netted 10.5 sacks. In 2008, he had 4 sacks as RDE. They move him to LDE in 2009 and he has 11. So why the dive in 2008? Gregg Williams and Greg Blache essentially had the same cast of characters up-front except for the addition of Jason Taylor, which you'd think would help. Here's a table of all of Carter and Orakpo's 2009 activity:

    Haynesworth_medium

    First, Orakpo should be rushing the Quarterback on every play. He had more sacks as a LB, but his sack numbers are skewed to me from that Oakland game (OAK ranked 30th with 49 sacks allowed). Either way, #98 and #99 did the job just fine without Al. ProFootballFocus brought up an excellent point, though: It's not just about sacks...it's really about pressure, which catalyzes so much defensive success. The Redskins ranked 26th last year in interceptions with a measly 11, so that number did not jump like we had expected. In fact, they had 3 more INTs in 2008!

    In short, without Albert, and switching to a 3-4 with a massive NT in Ma'ake Kemoeatu, I think the Redskins will be just fine. Piece out, Albert.

    Star-divide

    Here's the link to ProFootballFocus's Haynesworth xls sheet which lists every single play Orakpo and Carter generated pressure from and the result. I added in some total formulas. The sheet goes into extreme details including how they rushed (Inside, Outside, Bull). Take a gander, and I look forward to hearing your take. 

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    Anybody pay close attention to college?

    Who’s the stud D-lineman for me to watch all season and drool over leading up to next year’s draft?

    by CarverM on Jul 1, 2010 10:12 AM EDT reply actions  

    Typo?

    “Total Pressures by #98 & #92 (Sk, Ht or Hr) = 108
    Times Haynesworth on field = 57
    Times Haynesworth not on field =51
    Of the 57 times he was on the field, the vast majority of the time (43 times) he was playing DRT. Therefore, from looking at the 108 positive instances of Orakpo and Carter pressure I found a maximum of 5 where Haynesworth may have had some impact over and above what may be expected from a standard DT.”

    Should it be “Total pressures By #98 and #99”?

    Haynesworthless

    by Rabid on Jul 1, 2010 10:22 AM EDT reply actions  

    interesting analysis

    It certainly makes me feel more comfortable about moving forward without the guy. The sooner we can let Fat Al go the better, for the sake of team chemistry. (just not for free)

    by willster on Jul 1, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

    Bad Contract

    For those obsessing about the amount of Haynesworth’s contract: I just read on Yahoo about the new contract given Joe Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks – for about $119 million over 6 years – which they called the “worst contract ever written”. He’s 29, and not a star. I think the contract The Skins gave AH is not excessive in total (should end up far less), but they “blew it” with the guaranteed money and the $21 million lumpsum bonus – which guarantee has come back to bite them in the nose. Dan wasted some money, but he’s not the only one.
    Many many teams don’t seem to use common sense. I remember the $100+ million the Wizards (or Bullets back then) offered Jawan Howard. This great “community service”, “so loved Washington” blah blah blah guy – just had to turn it down because another team offered him a little more. $119 million just wasn’t quite enough for old Jawan. So I don’t blame Haynesworth as much as greedy agents and clueless, weak, naive owners/general managers. The “salaries” (and that’s not what they are) are ridiculously high. Keep that in mind when we have a lockout.
    Also, some on HH think Snyder overspent because he just gets enamored of stars, or is interested in selling tickets, or plain stupidity, or other crazy reasons. I reject that. I go for the obvious, common sense reason – namely, that he did it because he wanted the Redskins to win. He goes for top, talented players because he thinks they will help the team. It sometimes doesn’t work out, but it’s well intentioned. Things may have changed – he may now be letting Bruce Allen handle the business side of things. I also wonder if he has put a pretty low limit on spending – like less than the anticipated cap in 2011.

    by Donnio1234 on Jul 1, 2010 3:54 PM EDT reply actions  

    You can’t compare NFL contracts to NBA, there are 11 guys on an NBA team and 53 on an NFL team. And every now and then you find a basketball player who can carry your team deep into the playoffs on his own, so the big contracts can be worth it if you think a player is “the guy”. That’s not how it works in football.

    I agree that Snyder badly wants to win, rather than sell tickets or milk the franchise for all it’s worth. But by getting involved in football decisions (without having any football background at all) instead of trusting qualified pros, I think his moves fell pretty clearly into the “plain stupid” category, with a little bit of “enamored by stars” too.

    Bored and broke.

    by ThaRak on Jul 2, 2010 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

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