Of Lines and Coordinators
by btdome on Jun 10, 2010 4:11 PM EDT
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PrintMatt Mosley has a piece today on why he distrusts the Redskins as a contender in the East, despite John Clayton's beliefs to the contrary: it's all about that offensive line.
Fans know all about this of course. In response to this post, I thought it would be worth sharing some info I posted on another site about a month ago about this -- essentially, I found it really problematic to make any assumptions about the O-Line, considering how much of a difference it makes to have Kyle Shanahan in the OC spot.
Let's assume that the starting lineup is:
OT Trent Williams, OG Derrick Dockery, OC Casey Rabach, OG Mike Williams, OT Artis Hicks
Yeah, this looks like a pretty average bunch. Much will depend on the players' ability to adapt to a new scheme and respond to some higher quality coaching. Obviously this assumes no more short term vet signings to bolster the O-Line as starters (though I think none of us would be surprised if there was another name in the mix for depth purposes). O-Line coach Chris Foerster is probably being honest when he says Hicks should be expected to lock down an OT position -- which makes Stephon Heyer your primary backup at both Tackle spots.
Yet I'm not as down on this line as some fans are, or certainly as Mosley is. Assuming they're really running the Kyle Shanahan Houston offense with few alterations (and why would they change it, given its statistical success?), last year he finished the year with a line which wasn't much better. He had Duane Brown at OT (the lone 1st rounder), Kasey Studdard at OG (6th rounder), Chris Myers at OC (6th rounder), Antoine Caldwell at OG (3rd rounder) and Eric Winston at RT (3rd rounder).
Matt Schaub obviously led the league in passing behind that line (Chris White, an undersized vet, was in at the beginning of the season). None of these guys other than Brown was highly touted coming out, but Shanahan knew how to use them effectively, even in a division last year where they were facing guys like Vanden Bosch, Henderson, Dwight Freeney, Raheem Brock, and Robert Mathis twice.
Similarly, I don't think we can assess how much McNabb improves the line. Mosley talks about mobility changes, but I think the real difference is McNabb's delivery -- which anyone can tell you is faster than Campbell's slow arm motion. Now, McNabb has a lot of frustrating accuracy issues which I'm sure we'll come to know and love -- but McNabb was also sacked 35 times last year compared to Campbell's 43. You'd much rather have an incomplete or a throwaway than that.
I know what you're going to ask, so here's the number for comparison: last year, with that fairly average looking line in Houston, with two 6th rounders, two 3rd rounders, and only one 1st rounder, the Texans allowed only 25 sacks.
That's a great number. Doubt this line could ever hope to do that. But just getting back to the median of 35 sacks a season would be very helpful for the offense. Only one team allowed more than 40 sacks last year and made the playoffs -- the Green Bay Packers -- and they're the exception that proves the rule.
In any case: this OL looks like a marginally better squad than last year, but still one that has a lot of weaknesses. But that's going to give us a real opportunity to see whether the problem was the personnel, or the problem was Zorn, Campbell, or the schizophrenic offense. I'd put odds on the latter.
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The biggest problem last year was injuries.
We started a franchise record high, 10 different o-linemen last year. And we’re an old franchise.
Read my comment
I posted a comment on matt mosleys stupid cowgirl biased blog: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/14747/on-the-radar-skins-o-line . Check it out and tell me if you agree.
But our line WAS awful last year.
Age and injuries were completely predictable, so that doesn’t mitigate anything.
I agreed with Mosley’s harsh assessment. The only place for serious improvement this year is the rookie at LT, otherwise the other players might be improvements, but that’s not saying much.
And Mosley is right, it’s easily the worst line the division.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Where people were drafted is irrelevant.
last year he finished the year with a line which wasn’t much better. He had Duane Brown at OT (the lone 1st rounder), Kasey Studdard at OG (6th rounder), Chris Myers at OC (6th rounder), Antoine Caldwell at OG (3rd rounder) and Eric Winston at RT (3rd rounder).
Are you familiar with these players? (Honest question, as I am not)
Who knows if they’re “not much better”. Draft position means nothing once the season starts, you know?
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Sorry, I should've added
That I lived in Houston for a while and still work regularly down there, follow the team.
The thing to know about the Texans line last year is that it had several key injuries early on. They lost LG Chester Pitts, who was on IR after week 2, and RG Mike Brisiel, who got put on IR around week 6. So they had to slot these guys in but still performed excellently.
Studdard had started 5 games before 09, he’s journeyman quality, not terrible but nothing you want starting. Myers is the real weakness on the line last year — he was often overmatched, and there’s no question Rabach’s superior even as he’s getting long in the tooth. Caldwell is a decent rookie with a lot of upside but he played inconsistently last year. But the weak interior is offset by strong OTs — Brown is solid and Winston is underrated.
Taken as a whole, I do not think the Texans line is much more talented or capable than the Redskins. I was just using draft position as shorthand for it.
Good analysis, thanks
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
The Texans offensive line as a unit:
While the Texans were a passing team, they only allowed 27 sacks. Of these Brown, LT, allowed 7 QB sacks plus11 QB hits, and 35 QB hurries. Winston did slightly better (5 QB sacks allowed, 7QB hits, and 19 QB pressures) while having played 29 more snaps (15th overall rating of NFL starting OTs while Brown was 60th). Chris Myers had the best overall rating of the Texans OL on Pro Football Focus and was the 8th overall rated center. Studdard, LG, was overall rated as the 71st OG (4 sacks, 7 hits, and 20 pressures). From the center to the RT, the Texans OL did pretty good, but the left side was not that great. The RG position was shared by Antoine Caldwell, 362 snaps (1 sack allowed, 2 hits, and 6 pressures) and Mike Brisiel, 328 snaps (1 sack allowed, 0 hits, and 6 pressures).
While Rabach and Dockery held their own on pass protection, they did not do that well on run blocking. The Skins did play a lot more players on the OL than did the Texans, hence there was a lot less continuity. The Skins as a team allowed 41 sacks, 48 QB hits, and 110 QB pressures respectively to 27, 42, and 127 for the Texans.
by Jefferson1935 on Jun 11, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Far be it from me to disagree with Pro Football Focus
But I really have to on this (emphasis mine):
“Chris Myers had the best overall rating of the Texans OL on Pro Football Focus and was the 8th overall rated center.”
That’s really the opposite of what I saw and what I’d venture to guess most Texans fans perceived last year. The interior of that line had some major issues, and Myers really looked overmatched whenever he was across from a solid bullrushing DT. Just to prove I’m not alone in this view, here’s a roundup from a Texans fan:
http://www.battleredblog.com/2010/1/22/1256643/2009-in-review-the-offensive-line
FO and PFF both seem to think that Myers is doing a credible job run blocking. Color me unconvinced. This is probably the one offensive player I disagree with the stats for the most vehemently. Myers is a horrendous pass blocker. Everyone around here knows of his exploits against Kris Jenkins, so I don’t think I need to do too much convincing on that. Does his run blocking make up for his pass blocking to the point where he’s a top 10 center in football like his PFF performance says he was last year? I’m gonna go with no.
If you’re still skeptical, let’s go to the videotape to this rather infamous faceoff with Kris Jenkins:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiJ9lYyj4uQ&feature=player_embedded
Yeah. Chris Myers is not a top ten Center. Period.
btdome, riversmccown did a nice analysis of the Texans line play using FO and PFF.
There was also an analysis of the Redskins offensive line by Kevin after the 2009 season – http://www.hogshaven.com/2010/1/27/1272294/break-it-down-redskins-2009
While McCown used a selected You Tube video, the people who participate in Pro Football Focus use entire game film and repeated review the plays of each player. I can’t defend the quality of PFF in terms of the observer’s evaluations (approximately a thousand each for offensive and defensive snaps), but their methodology seems sound.
The play of Kris Jenkins was shown for a number of You Tube views besides against Meyers. There are a few NFL defensive linemen that are about un-blockable including Haynesworth. Chris Meyers versus Jenkins was 2008 info and unlike you and fans from Houston, I haven’t focused on his actual game play. Rabach also has had his problems with the larger defensive linemen. Not many centers are the best athletes in college or the pros. Mangold and Alex Mack are a few of the early round center draft picks. Of the 5 OL positions, center typically is most often filled with UDFA which can be seen from starter info in 2009. In the following file Chris Myers was down the list of centers, being a 6th round pick -2009 Starting Offensive Linemen Arrayed by their Draft Status – http://home.comcast.net/~fwroy/Starting%20Offensive%20Linemen%20by%20Draft%20Status.html. I have not attempted to correlate the next file with the previous one (which is the same information arranged in a different order, i.e., draft selection versus adjusted PFF overall rating) – Talent Evaluation Factors for Offensive Linemen (OL)? – http://home.comcast.net/~fwroy/version%202%20NFL%20OL%20talent.html. I tried to do the draft by round by position last year, but it did not maintain it’s format on HH, but the same notion concerning the draft round/UDFA mix of centers that is seen for starters also is a phenomena for all centers that has been consistent across the board for over 10 years. With the exception of a few centers, the top ten is not something that many may agree on, but draft position seems significant.
by Jefferson1935 on Jun 14, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
btdome, you missed a critical factor.....
Alex Gibbs , O line coach. Denver 1995-2003 Houston 2008-2009
I wonder who really should get the credit for Denver’s and Houston’s line play, I fear it may not be either Shanahan’s.
After all, we don’t give Joe Gibbs credit for Bugel’s Hogs do we? Grimm is a Bugel taught Oline coach, Foerster does not come from Alex Gibbs tree……I’m unsure about our Oline pedigree, top to bottom.
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
I'm not going to call Alex Gibbs overrated
But I would point out that his work in Houston last year did not pay any dividends for the running game. That’s the primary reason he’s in Seattle now instead of in Houston.
http://www.battleredblog.com/2009/12/14/1200734/the-thief-of-the-2009-season-the
Shanahan was obviously the playcaller for the Texans, and their passing game had incredible success. But my point was more that they didn’t have a line that’s much more talented than what we’ve got here (albeit at different positions).
As for Foerster, I’m not sold either, and that’s a much bigger question. It’s really hard to predict what kind of success he’ll have. He does not have a solid resume of quality work — and the fans blamed him in large part for two awful seasons in San Francisco.
http://www.ninersnation.com/2010/1/21/1263420/redskins-hire-49ers-ol-coach-chris
http://blog.redskins.com/2010/06/03/chris-foersters-approach-to-coaching/
I am more confident in the small upgrades, playcalling and offensive scheme improving the O-Line’s performance than I am in the coaching.
I have to agree with this assessment
we’ll find out how effective a coach Foerster is, but remember he was not Shanahan’s first choice….he asked Bugel to stay on, but that might have been a token gesture.
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Jun 11, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I just read those linked posts.....
and now I REALLY feel uneasy about our Oline sceme, coach and players :(
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Jun 11, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we can expect some improvement
if only they all get off the line on the same snap count. I share everyone’s concerns, but I’m still in line for the kool-aid. Nothing can compare to last year. It’s amazing we even won 4 games and yet were were in contention to win another 6 games, having nearly defeated the eventual SB Champs. The only difference in that game was attitude – and a Zorn team doesn’t have that when you stay “Medium.”
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
I'm with you Scott E
While we shouldn’t have any illusions I do think it’s possible we looked way worse than we actually were due to catastrophic coaching and management. Still the goal needs to be for the Skins to get younger and more cohesive over the next 2 or 3 drafts, especially on the lines.
by SkinsOsTerps on Jun 11, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
agrred....
from what I have seen already this offseason I believe that we will be considerably better than last year, but not necessarily want I want for the future of the franchise. Rebuilding while competing? Its so crazy it just might work!!!…Seriously I do hope we start moving younger and establishing a new era in Redskins football……I know, I know….all the nay-sayers tell me Danny will never be able to keep it in his pants. A man can dream can’t he? I am hoping that Shanny is doing some forward thinking here, whether it happens or not, perhaps he has high ideas of turning the franchise over to Kyle someday.
Danny boy is indeed the big x factor
I made the mistake of thinking he had been chastened by Gibbs II. Obviously there was some mediocrity there but I felt like the team was progressing and we mostly were able to avoid the incredibly stupid. Then the Zorn era put me right back in my place. All we can hope now is that last season’s backlash was enough to permanently take Snyder out of the front office decision making.
I’m not going to predict Super Bowls but given a few years of real control and authority I think Shanahan and Allen can bring us back to respectability. The thing is it’s going to be over the long haul and there’s still that risk that if we, say, miss the playoffs the next 2 seasons Danny gets impatient and we go back to square 1.
by SkinsOsTerps on Jun 11, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
no more square one please!!!!!
Zorn was obviously a complete failure, and an inadvisable move from the get go (imagine that) ….but I think Gibbs was just done and over it, he had to many other things going on that he enjoys, and the game had changed to much. From the very nature of the game itself to player attitudes, and he made some crucial mistakes. Small mistakes comparatively, but glaring enough that I don’t think he felt he was the best man for the job. I think getting rid of Vinnie at least shows something….but we shall see. I am, in fact, ready for some football…..I just hope our team is as well…..I don’t even ant to “predict” superbowl…always too many variables….just want to be a contender each and every year.
I'm pretty much agreeing with all of the above
but would just like to point out – even if he tried to play it as a stroke of genius – Snyder didn’t orchestrate the Zorn era/error deliberately. He backed himself into a corner by his reputation for wanting to control things that pertain to football, of which he has no real experience. He then compounded that by hiring Zorn as OC BEFORE he hired a HC. That situation resulted in the sudden realization that NO ONE with an ounce of brains/talent would take the HC job leaving it de facto to Zorn.
Just sayin’ the Zorn era/error was not a plan or strategy but the results of having a bad reputation that was compounded by bad decision-making.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Snyder.....
and that’s why/how our owner holds this team back, I doubt he’ll ever get it.
Anyone else see the open letter from the Wizards and Ted Leonsis? That’s how you run a successful franchise, I pray that Danny pays attention to this.
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Jun 11, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Zorn was the only option
I think he and Danny where hitting the Mary J when Danny offered Zorn the OC job, having totally forgotten he needed to hire the HC first. It’s the origination of the Skins’ West Coast Offensive – unless for some perverse reason you really liked the Swinging Gate. Just sayin’…
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Hiring Zorn as OC
Right – hiring Zorn, or anybody, as OC, before hiring the head coach, was a bizarre mistake. Snyder should have known better. And that modest mistake came back and bit him in the nose, big time.
+1 younger and more cohesive
definitely need to stop the churn rate on both lines
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Jun 11, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Where do OLs come from?
Look at most OLs in the NFL. There are 1 or 2 blue chip prospects, and then a bunch of players that are 1. solid vets from other successful lines or 2. vets that havent done much at all on a line to this point. The AMAZING NYG line that began in 07-08? That was a collection of nobodies, until they played a bunch together and had an offensive system that minimized their weaknesses. The Eagles? They signed a high profile OT, and they allowed plenty of sacks last year. The cowboys line is good, but they were not the #1 offense in the league or anything. New Orleans has 2 great linemen, and the rest are not great individual performers but work well together and in that offense. Remember our last scamper to 6-2 in ’08? The line had been mostly the same from the year before AND healthy… steamrolled mofos until injuries and age hit.
Point is, OLs do “suddenly” become good; it happens ALL THE TIME. They are all collections of young and old players; formerly dominant and formerly not-that-awesome. Constancy of personnel and system, along with an offense that is geared toward minimizing their weaknesses, speaks to success. No team can draft an OL of 5 awesome prospects and make it work. Too many variables. Every single line in the NFL starts out as unpredictable until they have operated together and either come together, or don’t.
That is my main problem with Mosley’s argument: past success of individual players on an OL really has almost nothing to do with how a collection of 5 players will work together. We have at least 2 new starters this year, and so the line could be bad, but it could also be average… and there is a small chance it could excel once they get comfortable with one another. OL success is fickle, and one of the least predictable facets of the game. Stop acting like the fate of any OL is written before the season, because, quite frankly, it ain’t.
by CapitalDominion on Jun 11, 2010 4:38 PM EDT reply actions
Anything can happen
But I can tell you where my money is.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I can try to shout positives from the rooftops all day and drink kool-aid all night....
I know where my money is as well…for the moment it stays in my wallet ….well, there and Anne Marie’s tip jar…..
It's definitely a crapshoot, however
the odds that we will have a better scheme this year are astronomically better than last year, at least once Samuels went down.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Fair point
And New Orleans is a great example of that. They had unexpected players who overperformed in the wake of injury. Just look at Jermon Bushrod — he wasn’t the most consistent guy in the world, but his ability to come in and have a positive impact was a key reason the Saints could make their run.
excellent points
Great article and follow-up discussions … I completely agree that the running
game is as important as the sacks allowed. The present interior line personnel
do have the advantage of being familiar with each other. Individually they have
more size than the tradition zone-blocking linemen under Mike Shanahan.
Even the OL prospects taken in this year’s draft are north of 300lbs. Could
there be a slight change of philosophy under Foerster?
I don’t know much about Houston. Does Kyle Shanahan use a small receiving
third-down back? Because Mike S. didn’t for the longest time until arguably
the last years, when he had Selvin Young who was an excellent blocker and
receiver. On third down and goal line situations he used to trot out the big backs.
This is interesting because we made an offer to Westbrook. Personally I don’t
mind having him as long as he comes cheap, but how will he be used? Although
having him line up behind Larry Johnson playing fullback would be neat. He can
move into the slot before the snap and defenses will have fits. Shanahan
the elder once switched a 1000 yard halfback to fullback the next year. That guy
(Mike Anderson) was of course bigger (248 lbs) and was an ex-marine who would
run through a wall if asked to, and did not have as big an ego as Johnson.
But I’d love to know what went into Johnson’s incentive-laden contract, whether
it would get him to play FB.
by formerbroncosfan on Jun 11, 2010 10:36 PM EDT reply actions
I'm hoping LJ has a chip on his shoulder
and wants to prove everyone wrong who say he is washed up. I think the Shanny’s will command his respect and he will do anything asked. And I think this situation can be multiplied by 52, which is why I’m drinking the kool-aid.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Thanks
I obviously can’t answer the LJ question, but I doubt something like that would work — essentially, you’re asking whether LJ is willing to be Mike Anderson or Reuben Droughns, and I just don’t think he’s that guy. But who knows how they’re going to use these backfield pieces.
Houston had a mix of grab-bag running backs: Ryan Moats, Arian Foster, Chris Brown and the injured Steve Slaton (who destroyed my fantasy team). They struggled significantly in the run game, which is one reason they’ve added Chris Henry (who never really saw the field in Tennessee) and drafted Auburn’s Ben Tate in the 2nd round this year (I fully expect him to be the starting RB in H-town by the end of the 2010 season).
In fact, here’s a handy graph at another SB Nation blog to see exactly how badly it went:
http://www.battleredblog.com/2010/5/19/1479210/offensive-expectations-how-did-we
Let’s hope we don’t have something like that for the Redskins at the end of the year.
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