History Shows RBs over 30 Can Still Run for 1000 Yards; Just Not in Shanahan's History
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 8:10 AM EDT
in Redskins Analysis
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PrintI was wondering if all the negative feedback the Redskins' current RB situation was getting was warranted. Of course, it's very likely Shanahan will draft a mid-round RB, but it's still worth looking into. In Mike Shanahan's 11 years as Denver's head coach, Mike Anderson was the only rusher over 30 years old to run for 1,000 yards. It should be said that going into that 2005 season, the former Marine had a measly 626 career carries, which is half as many as the lowest RB on the Redskins roster right now. Reuben Droughns was the next oldest RB at 27 to run for 1,000, and going into that 2004 season he had a whopping 40 career carries. Yea, that's not a typo. 40.
|
Year |
Player |
Age |
Yards |
|
2006 |
25 |
1,025 |
|
|
2005 |
Mike Anderson |
32 |
1,014 |
|
2004 |
Reuben Droughns |
27 |
1,240 |
|
2003 |
22 |
1,591 |
|
|
2002 |
Clinton Portis |
21 |
1,508 |
|
2000 |
Mike Anderson |
27 |
1,487 |
|
1999 |
Olandis Gary |
24 |
1,159 |
|
1998 |
Terrell Davis |
26 |
2,008 |
|
1997 |
Terrell Davis |
25 |
1,750 |
|
1996 |
Terrell Davis |
24 |
1,538 |
|
1995 |
Terrell Davis |
23 |
1,117 |
There certainly is more to the stats though.
Former Broncos who rushed for 1,000+ yards outside of Denver: Reuben Droughns ‘05 (CLE), Portis (WAS) - 4x.
Clinton Portis currently has 2,176 carries.
Larry Johnson currently has 1,421 carries.
Willie Parker currently has 1,253 carries.
Either way, the Redskins don't need a single RB to run for 1,000 yards. Whichever three, including the draft pick, make the squad just need a formidable running game. Clinton certainly has speed left, but OL problems aside, I just can't see these 3 guys giving the production of Shanny's alums. It really makes me think that these 3 RBs are fighting for two spots.
Some other RBs that have run for good yardage over the age of 30:
Thomas Jones had 1949 carries going into last season and put up 1,402 yards (31 years old currently)
John Riggins had 2413 carries going into the 1984 season and ran for 1239 yards and 14 TDs (age of 35).
Edgerrin James had 2525 carries going into the 2007 season for Arizona and ran for 1,222 yards (age of 29).
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think again
who has 13 million guaranteed contract?
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't he only guaranteed like $9M or something?
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
"ONLY"?
you may be right, I thought it was like 6 mil this year and 7 next…still, no team is going to take on either of those numbers
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree, especially not in a trade.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
true but it doesn't change the fact
Here’s a good read on older RBs:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jeff_pearlman/04/09/lt/index.html
Something in the tank? More on topic links.
The Curse of 370 -
http://views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/smarterstats/2008/10/the-curse-of-370.html
The Curse of 370, Part 2 -
http://views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/smarterstats/2008/10/the-curse-of-370-part-2.html
Willie Parker and the Curse of 370
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2007/willie-parker-and-curse-370
Perceptions of Aging Running Backs Changing – http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2007/perceptions-aging-running-backs-changing
A Different Look at the Best Running Backs Ever – http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2005/different-look-best-running-backs-ever
by Jefferson1935 on Apr 14, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Old RBs
There aren’t very many who could succeed in the NFL at age 30. Speed declines at that point, and the NFL today is a speed game. All of our RBs have lost a step or three. Good research. Doesn’t bode well for our backfield. Oh and 1,000 yards really isn’t a very high bar for a RB.
1200 yards
Is probably where you start to separate the best RBs from the rest.
Yep. 1000 yards is 62.5 a game, aka nothing special.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Larry Johnson is currently 30
and Parker turns 30 in November. I think we all might be blowing the age thing out of proportion a bit.
Agree. We should just simply focus on recent production
and by that metric, our trio of aging backs are all mediocre at best.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
There's so many other things
we can complain about. We shouldn’t hamstring ourselves with their ages.
that concussion he took was brutal tho...
Comes with age/# of carries for RBs
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Additionally
Clinton has a lot of miles on his legs – before he got his brain turned to mush. His performance during the 6-2 start in 2008 was great (944/187, 5.1, 7), during the 2-6 slide not so much (543/155, 3.5, 2).
Clinton has carried the ball over 300 times for 4 of his 8 years in the league (and for 4 of his 6 years if you take out the two years he was on IR due to catastrophic injury).
Additionally, Clinton is a far more active back in pass protection, especially compared to the other marquee RBs across the league. If Bruce isn’t trying to get out from under Clinton’s contract, he should be.
by TerroristFistJab on Apr 13, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely
but, by contrast, the other two have a lot less miles. Both spend some time on the bench before becoming starters.
And then came a year and a half of nothingness
First half of 2008, CP was forerunner for league MVP.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
When is the schedule coming out?
usually right about now?
Wait...you"re the one who has been negative
Mr. Frownypants. I’ve been in the tank for this stable of running backs since they signed Fast Willie. And if/when Shanahan brings in a late-round running back, I bet he turns out to be a stud.
Well, your bets have been bad as of late on what will be good, so I'll take it
Haynesworth, Campbell, Spurrier, Blossom Reunion Show,
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Stupid Spurrier...
Who could have possibly known there is actually a dude out there who thinks it is okay to leave 3 guys in to block on 99% of your passing plays? Seriously…what are the odds?
Lmao
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I still can't believe
Edge had over 2500 carries at 29!! That’s insane. Portis turns 29 during the year I believe and he would be pretty close to that by the end of the year IF he stayed healthy, which won’t happen..
Praise to Shanahan
Who cares about their ages? The only year he didn’t have a 1000 yard rusher was 2001. To me, that says he knows what he’s doing. If he thinks our committee has the skillsets to fit the scheme productively, how can we argue?
b/c part of the reason he was fired in Denver was b/c he was a bad GM
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
He's picking the players. He's not necessarily a good GM.
Therefore, I can reserve the right to question his personnel decisions.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I don't think it's hard to be pessimistic w/ these RBs
when 1 is coming off a near career-ending concussion and the other 2 signed very low offers when no other teams wanted them. I mean, Willie signed knowing LJ and Portis were already here.
I’m thinking it’s all a push to see which 1 or 2 of the 3 works the hardest this off-season.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
and keep in mind
the KC running offense picked up after the let LJ go.
it's well documented (there was a post on here when we were looking for an HC)
that he was a bad GM, the same that it’s well documented that he churns out 1000yd rushers like it’s nothing.
He’s not grasping at straws
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
The poor GM talk came from my interview with Karl Mecklenberg about the topic
and he played for them and is obviously still much ingrained with the Broncos (and said is still a close friend to Mike).
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
No, you just refuse to acknowledge Shanahan's questionable GM resume
You’re grasping at straws to stay pessimistic.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I get it (And expected KevinE to support the pessimism).
But I don’t see how it has any relation to picking or producing 1000 yard backs. He’s proven every year he can do it, and he’s picked the 3 RBs we have right now.
How does being a bad GM, or making some bad GM decisions, affect any of it? Especially when we have a proven GM, strong at cap management, to work with.
Over the last 20 years...
Lets put a good/bad list together of Redskins acquisitions (coaches & players). It’s pretty clear why it’s easy to be pessimistic. It’s not that I choose to…there just hasn’t been any reason to be optimistic….that’ll change w/ the draft but i’ve been optimistic about this whole off-season so far.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
It always gets me when people suggest that being pessimistic about a Snyder-owned team is somehow unjustified or unfair.
I have 10 years of proof. What do they have?
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I'm not saying that its unjustified or unfair
I’ve lived through the last 10 years just as you have. It just gets old when everyone uses these forums as places to circle-jerk about how bad everything is. Its nice to read and hope that our team will get better for a change, but you eternal pessimists live for pissing in everyone’s cornflakes with every move that the team makes.
but I like pissing in cornflakes :(
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
Irrational optimism and being sold a bill of goods also gets very old.
Not sure where this leaves us with regards to who should comment in this forum more?
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I wish someone had told me not to be cautiously optimistic the last 10 years
Woulda saved a ton of $$ on tickets.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Altho I'd trade nothing in the world for Fedex tailgating
..well, maybe the 72 virgins the muslims speak so highly of.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I heard they were all unattractive
just sayin’
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
rarely are people on here douchbags
so if that’s your threshold, you don’t have to worry too much about a vast majority of comments that don’t have optimism for various moves under Snyder.
In fact, I’ve been personally attacked and insulted far more by “cautious optimists” than I’ve seen attacks by Snyder pessimists.
So, let’s revise:
Optimism or Pessimism – no douchebagness on either side.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Here, Here, Carver!
What one thinks about, manifests. If the entire B&G are talking/blogging/writing only about what’s ‘wrong’ with the team, the group consciousness does nothing to uplift the team.
I’m not saying we should all start chanting, just that it’s apparent from viewing people in our daily life, that what one talks about mostly is what tends to show up in their life.
I Choose to be optimistic (even when we are down 14-0 against the ’Boys in their house, late in the fourth).
I'm not holding my breath
that’ll change w/ the draft
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
Look, the original point was “If he thinks our committee has the skillsets to fit the scheme productively, how can we argue?”
To which I respond: his overall record when being the sole decision maker on personnel is mixed at best, therefore I have reservations.
Especially when we have a proven GM, strong at cap management, to work with.
This is irrelevant to my point. Our “GM” doesn’t have authoritative say on personnel ratings & decisions, Shanny does.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
his overall record when being the sole decision maker on personnel is mixed at best
1000 yard RBs every year (minus 2001) and being to six Superbowls is mixed at best?
Yea, it was only the last 2-3 years before he was fired.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
When did he become GM/president guy?
I can’t find it on the internets.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
When did he get final say on personnel matters in Denver?
b/c that’s what he has here.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I wouldn't say he has final say
It’s a collaboration with Allen and Kyle, and the other coaches too (hopefully not Dan).
At least that’s my take. I think it’d be impossible to say when or if he had complete control over either organization.
In Denver
there was as specific point where their GM was fired (I believe) and Shanny became Team President or whatever they wanted to title “final decision maker”.
As for our team now, it’s pretty clear that while Shanahan will work with Allen & Kyle, Shanahan makes the final call, especially with regards to player evaluation.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Allen was handpicked by Shannahan,
thus Shannahan even has say over the GM and not vice versa…in other words , bass-ackwards
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You have that backwards...
Shanny said he’d only come to DC if Bruce was the GM.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
that's right, so who picked who?
knowing that Danny really wanted Shannahan?
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
ah, my bad
read your original one wrong.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't that Shanny picking/demanding the GM, then?
Shanny said he’d only come to DC if Bruce was the GM.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Clear how?
Media reports that repeatedly cite the fact that Allen is more of a cap & negotiations guy, and that Shanahan is directing the personnel decisions.
I mean, I can go look up all the WaPo articles if you want me to.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Shanny was in control looks like from 2001
http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_11340647
I remember Mecklenburg telling me Shanny lost the locker room the last 2 years, and that was when it all went down hill.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
To my point:
But his player-personnel calls left much to be desired. Shanahan’s five drafts from 2001-05, more than any other factor, led to his demise. The Broncos, as he walked out the door, had three players remaining from those drafts — Ben Hamilton, D.J. Williams and Karl Paymah. The rest, including such draft-day busts as Willie Middlebrooks, Paul Toviessi and George Foster, will go down in Broncos infamy.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Yep, he had a couple good drafts at the end
But overall his GM track record is mixed at best
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
yeah, once their record sucked and they started picking higher
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
touche
I walked right into that one
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what Mecklenburg confirmed
Shanny only knew how to draft offensive guys, which is why the D was so bad and the offense so good…hence the .500 record over those final years.
He shouldn’t have had full control over the defense…plus he kept changing D coordinators.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
And Vinny picked Chris Horton.....
Anyone’s going to get a couple right over the years, but Shanny’s lack of early round home runs on D killed him.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It could be that Shannahan is the US Grant of coaches....
he just rides his RBs into the ground. Seriously, who’s had a long career under him?
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
the other RBs that went for 1k yards after 30
at the end of the post all did it behind big, elite power olines…not this ZBS crap
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
What if all three have 800 yards?
Probably a good season.
at an avg of 4.5 yds/carry that would mean we would be rushing 33 times per game
I’d take that, that’s old smashmouth football :}
The world looks mighty different when you're peeking out your belly button
by Skins Fan '77 on Apr 13, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
actually, it's probably more like 50+ carries
since they all average around 3.2 yards a carry now. I need to dig up that article on one of the major sports sites where all 3 Rbs average something like < 2.5 b/w the tackles.
"I am excited about starting 2009. We are looking forward to an outstanding year. We're on our way. We have a lot of healthy players this year." - Vinny Cerrato
by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 13, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
should have added splitting carries evenly.
But that would be 150 yards on the ground per game. Not too bad.
No Curtis Martin love?
Born 1973, over 1,000 yards in the 2003 and 2004 seasons (1308 and 1697, respectively, led the league in rushing in ’04).
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