FanPost

Volume for volume's sake: A reply to Sugar's front page article

I apologize up front for the length of this reply.

 

The signing or trading for one veteran signal caller may make me believe a team (Cleveland) is looking for a young QB to groom.

 

Two? I don’t think so. Trade Peyton Hillis, soon after trading for him….again I’d say doubtful. Get a higher volume of draft picks (2 additional thirds) to have more bodies on hand for next year, not sure the logic is as solid as it first sounds personally.

 

Here’s Shanahan’s 3rd round draft pick history from 1995 through 2008. The columns read as round/pick in round/overall pick in draft.

 

 

3

6

70

Ryan Harris

T

Notre Dame

3

12

76

Karl Paymah

DB

Washington State

3

33

97

Domonique Foxworth

DB

Maryland

3

37

101

Maurice Clarett

RB

Ohio State

3

22

85

Jeremy LeSueur

DB

Michigan

3

31

96

Dorsett Davis

DT

Mississippi State

3

25

87

Reggie Hayward

DE

Iowa State

3

8

70

Chris Cole

WR

Texas A&M

3

6

67

Chris Watson

DB

Eastern Illinois

3

32

93

Travis McGriff

WR

Florida

3

30

91

Brian Griese

QB

Michigan

3

7

67

Dan Neil

G

Texas

3

4

65

Detron Smith

RB

Texas A&M

3

17

78

Mark Campbell

DT

Florida

 

I’d say Harris, Foxworth, Hayward, Griese, and Neil are the best pro prospects from those drafts. None are still with the team. That’s 14 3rd round picks with 5 good players or a 35% success rate.

 

Now let’s look instead at Shahahan’s 1st and 2nd round history over that same span.

 

2008

1

12

12

Ryan Clady

T

Boise State

 

2

11

42

Eddie Royal

WR

Virginia Tech

2007

1

17

17

Jarvis Moss

DE

Florida

 

2

24

56

Tim Crowder

DE

Texas

2006

1

11

11

Jay Cutler

QB

Vanderbilt

 

2

29

61

Tony Scheffler

TE

Western Michigan

2005

2

24

56

Darrent Williams

DB

Oklahoma State

 

3

12

76

Karl Paymah

DB

Washington State

2004

1

17

17

D.J. Williams

LB

Miami (FL)

 

2

9

41

Tatum Bell

RB

Oklahoma State

2003

1

20

20

George Foster

T

Georgia

 

2

19

51

Terry Pierce

LB

Kansas State

2002

1

19

19

Ashley Lelie

WR

Hawaii

 

2

19

51

Clinton Portis

RB

Miami (FL)

2001

1

24

24

Willie Middlebrooks

DB

Minnesota

 

2

20

51

Paul Toviessi

DE

Marshall

2000

1

15

15

Deltha O'Neal

DB

California

 

2

9

40

Ian Gold

DB

Michigan

 

2

14

45

Kenoy Kennedy

DB

Arkansas

1999

1

31

31

Al Wilson

LB

Tennessee

 

2

27

58

Montae Reagor

LB

Texas Tech

 

2

30

61

Lennie Friedman

C

Duke

1998

1

30

30

Marcus Nash

WR

Tennessee

 

2

31

61

Eric Brown

DB

Mississippi State

1997

1

28

28

Trevor Pryce

DE

Clemson

1996

1

15

15

John Mobley

LB

Kutztown (PA)

 

2

14

44

Tory James

DB

Louisiana State

 

Out of 27 picks I would rate 15 as solid picks or a 55% success rate. I would also note that none of those 1st rounders were in the top 10 and only two second rounders were in the top 10 of the 2nd round. This bodes well for the Redskin’s as Shanahan seems to have an eye for talent at top end of the talent pool.

 

Where am I going with this????? I don’t understand the argument of drafting a less talented player at the top of the draft by trading down from #4 only to gain additional picks in the 3rd round that appear to be marginal contributors roughly 35% of the time. Can’t we sign marginal contributors in free agency, especially this year?

 

Talking heads are speaking about this draft being as deep as the 2004 draft. I just think I’d have wanted to hitch my wagon to one of the top five picks from that draft rather trade down and get a player from picks 6-10:

1

Eli Manning

QB

Mississippi

San Diego Chargers

2

Robert Gallery

T

Iowa

Oakland Raiders

3

Larry Fitzgerald

WR

Pittsburgh

Arizona Cardinals

4

Philip Rivers

QB

North Carolina State

New York Giants

5

Sean Taylor

FS

Miami (Fla.)

Washington Redskins

6

Kellen Winslow

TE

Miami (Fla.)

Cleveland Browns

7

Roy Williams

WR

Texas

Detroit Lions

8

DeAngelo Hall

CB

Virginia Tech

Atlanta Falcons

9

Reggie Williams

WR

Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars

10

Dunta Robinson

CB

South Carolina

Houston Texans

 

Then, based on this argument, let’s say we did get one of the players from 6-10 and then 2 additional 3rd round draft picks from that very same 2004 draft. Below are the results and I’d say there are 8 solid players amongst them (Darnell Dockett and Cooley being the 2 brightest stars) which makes for a 25% success rate:

 

Sel #

Player

Position

School

Team

64

Darnell Dockett

DT

Florida State

Arizona Cardinals

65

Nate Kaeding

K

Iowa

San Diego Chargers

66

Nick Hardwick

C

Purdue

San Diego Chargers

67

Stuart Schweigert

SAF

Purdue

Oakland Raiders

68

Ben Hartsock

TE

Ohio State

Indianapolis Colts

69

Gilbert Gardner

LB

Purdue

Indianapolis Colts

70

Joey Thomas

CB

Montana State

Green Bay Packers

71

Randy Starks

DT

Maryland

Tennessee Titans

72

Donnell Washington

DT

Clemson

Green Bay Packers

73

Keith Smith

CB

McNeese State

Detroit Lions

74

Tim Anderson

DT

Ohio State

Buffalo Bills

75

Max Starks

T

Florida

Pittsburgh Steelers

76

Derrick Strait

CB

Oklahoma

New York Jets

77

Derrick Hamilton

WR

Clemson

San Francisco 49ers

78

Bernard Berrian

WR

Fresno State

Chicago Bears

79

Marquis Cooper

LB

Washington

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

80

Caleb Miller

LB

Arkansas

Cincinnati Bengals

81

Chris Cooley

TE

Utah State

Washington Redskins

82

Devard Darling

WR

Washington State

Baltimore Ravens

83

Stephen Peterman

G

Louisiana State

Dallas Cowboys

84

Sean Locklear

G

North Carolina State

Seattle Seahawks

85

Jeremy LeSueur

CB

Michigan

Denver Broncos

86

Jorge Cordova

LB

Nevada-Reno

Jacksonville Jaguars

87

B.J. Sander

P

Ohio State

Green Bay Packers

88

Darrion Scott

DE

Ohio State

Minnesota Vikings

89

Matt Ware

DB

UCLA

Philadelphia Eagles

90

Matt Schaub

QB

Virginia

Atlanta Falcons

91

Anthony Hargrove

DE

Georgia Tech

St. Louis Rams

92

Rich Gardner

CB

Penn State

Tennessee Titans

93

Keyaron Fox

LB

Georgia Tech

Kansas City Chiefs

94

Travelle Wharton

G

South Carolina

Carolina Panthers

95

Guss Scott

SAF

Florida

New England Patriots

96

Landon Johnson

MLB

Purdue

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Volume, only for the sake of volume is not necessarily the way I’d like to go. We have the #4 pick and I think we need to trust that the current regime can make that pick at #4 a cornerstone of the franchise. This franchise has been drifting in the wind for so long.

 

I don’t care if we are 6-10 next year as long as we show progress. Progress to me, is using the top end picks wisely and methodically leading to a long term contender.

 

Your top picks are the ones you are in most control of because there are less variables involved. Trading down allows other teams to pick players you covet, eroding your draft board, only to be forced to roll the dice on a lesser player (not even necessarily the one you originally traded down to be in position for). Yes you gain picks in the later rounds but, as I present, they have a worse success rate. This just seems illogical to me more and more.




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