Volume for volume's sake: A reply to Sugar's front page article
I apologize up front for the length of this reply.
The signing or trading for one veteran signal caller may make me believe a team (Cleveland) is looking for a young QB to groom.
Two? I don’t think so. Trade Peyton Hillis, soon after trading for him….again I’d say doubtful. Get a higher volume of draft picks (2 additional thirds) to have more bodies on hand for next year, not sure the logic is as solid as it first sounds personally.
Here’s Shanahan’s 3rd round draft pick history from 1995 through 2008. The columns read as round/pick in round/overall pick in draft.
|
3 |
6 |
70 |
T |
Notre Dame |
|
|
3 |
12 |
76 |
DB |
Washington State |
|
|
3 |
33 |
97 |
DB |
Maryland |
|
|
3 |
37 |
101 |
Maurice Clarett |
RB |
Ohio State |
|
3 |
22 |
85 |
DB |
Michigan |
|
|
3 |
31 |
96 |
Dorsett Davis |
DT |
Mississippi State |
|
3 |
25 |
87 |
DE |
Iowa State |
|
|
3 |
8 |
70 |
Chris Cole |
WR |
Texas A&M |
|
3 |
6 |
67 |
Chris Watson |
DB |
Eastern Illinois |
|
3 |
32 |
93 |
Travis McGriff |
WR |
Florida |
|
3 |
30 |
91 |
QB |
Michigan |
|
|
3 |
7 |
67 |
Dan Neil |
G |
Texas |
|
3 |
4 |
65 |
Detron Smith |
RB |
Texas A&M |
|
3 |
17 |
78 |
DT |
Florida |
I’d say Harris, Foxworth, Hayward, Griese, and Neil are the best pro prospects from those drafts. None are still with the team. That’s 14 3rd round picks with 5 good players or a 35% success rate.
Now let’s look instead at Shahahan’s 1st and 2nd round history over that same span.
|
2008 |
1 |
12 |
12 |
T |
Boise State |
|
|
|
2 |
11 |
42 |
WR |
Virginia Tech |
|
|
2007 |
1 |
17 |
17 |
DE |
Florida |
|
|
|
2 |
24 |
56 |
DE |
Texas |
|
|
2006 |
1 |
11 |
11 |
QB |
Vanderbilt |
|
|
|
2 |
29 |
61 |
TE |
Western Michigan |
|
|
2005 |
2 |
24 |
56 |
DB |
Oklahoma State |
|
|
|
3 |
12 |
76 |
Karl Paymah |
DB |
Washington State |
|
2004 |
1 |
17 |
17 |
LB |
Miami (FL) |
|
|
|
2 |
9 |
41 |
RB |
Oklahoma State |
|
|
2003 |
1 |
20 |
20 |
T |
Georgia |
|
|
|
2 |
19 |
51 |
Terry Pierce |
LB |
Kansas State |
|
2002 |
1 |
19 |
19 |
WR |
Hawaii |
|
|
|
2 |
19 |
51 |
Clinton Portis |
RB |
Miami (FL) |
|
2001 |
1 |
24 |
24 |
Willie Middlebrooks |
DB |
Minnesota |
|
|
2 |
20 |
51 |
Paul Toviessi |
DE |
Marshall |
|
2000 |
1 |
15 |
15 |
Deltha O'Neal |
DB |
California |
|
|
2 |
9 |
40 |
DB |
Michigan |
|
|
|
2 |
14 |
45 |
DB |
Arkansas |
|
|
1999 |
1 |
31 |
31 |
LB |
Tennessee |
|
|
|
2 |
27 |
58 |
LB |
Texas Tech |
|
|
|
2 |
30 |
61 |
C |
Duke |
|
|
1998 |
1 |
30 |
30 |
Marcus Nash |
WR |
Tennessee |
|
|
2 |
31 |
61 |
Eric Brown |
DB |
Mississippi State |
|
1997 |
1 |
28 |
28 |
DE |
Clemson |
|
|
1996 |
1 |
15 |
15 |
John Mobley |
LB |
Kutztown (PA) |
|
|
2 |
14 |
44 |
DB |
Louisiana State |
Out of 27 picks I would rate 15 as solid picks or a 55% success rate. I would also note that none of those 1st rounders were in the top 10 and only two second rounders were in the top 10 of the 2nd round. This bodes well for the Redskin’s as Shanahan seems to have an eye for talent at top end of the talent pool.
Where am I going with this????? I don’t understand the argument of drafting a less talented player at the top of the draft by trading down from #4 only to gain additional picks in the 3rd round that appear to be marginal contributors roughly 35% of the time. Can’t we sign marginal contributors in free agency, especially this year?
Talking heads are speaking about this draft being as deep as the 2004 draft. I just think I’d have wanted to hitch my wagon to one of the top five picks from that draft rather trade down and get a player from picks 6-10:
|
1 |
QB |
Mississippi |
||
|
2 |
T |
Iowa |
||
|
3 |
WR |
Pittsburgh |
||
|
4 |
QB |
North Carolina State |
||
|
5 |
FS |
Miami (Fla.) |
||
|
6 |
TE |
Miami (Fla.) |
||
|
7 |
WR |
Texas |
||
|
8 |
CB |
Virginia Tech |
||
|
9 |
WR |
Washington |
||
|
10 |
CB |
South Carolina |
Then, based on this argument, let’s say we did get one of the players from 6-10 and then 2 additional 3rd round draft picks from that very same 2004 draft. Below are the results and I’d say there are 8 solid players amongst them (Darnell Dockett and Cooley being the 2 brightest stars) which makes for a 25% success rate:
|
Sel # |
Player |
Position |
School |
Team |
|
64 |
DT |
Florida State |
||
|
65 |
K |
Iowa |
||
|
66 |
C |
Purdue |
||
|
67 |
SAF |
Purdue |
||
|
68 |
TE |
Ohio State |
||
|
69 |
LB |
Purdue |
||
|
70 |
CB |
Montana State |
||
|
71 |
DT |
Maryland |
||
|
72 |
DT |
Clemson |
||
|
73 |
CB |
McNeese State |
||
|
74 |
DT |
Ohio State |
||
|
75 |
T |
Florida |
||
|
76 |
CB |
Oklahoma |
||
|
77 |
WR |
Clemson |
||
|
78 |
WR |
Fresno State |
||
|
79 |
LB |
Washington |
||
|
80 |
LB |
Arkansas |
||
|
81 |
TE |
Utah State |
||
|
82 |
WR |
Washington State |
||
|
83 |
G |
Louisiana State |
||
|
84 |
G |
North Carolina State |
||
|
85 |
CB |
Michigan |
||
|
86 |
LB |
Nevada-Reno |
||
|
87 |
P |
Ohio State |
||
|
88 |
DE |
Ohio State |
||
|
89 |
DB |
UCLA |
||
|
90 |
QB |
Virginia |
||
|
91 |
DE |
Georgia Tech |
||
|
92 |
CB |
Penn State |
||
|
93 |
LB |
Georgia Tech |
||
|
94 |
G |
South Carolina |
||
|
95 |
SAF |
Florida |
||
|
96 |
MLB |
Purdue |
Volume, only for the sake of volume is not necessarily the way I’d like to go. We have the #4 pick and I think we need to trust that the current regime can make that pick at #4 a cornerstone of the franchise. This franchise has been drifting in the wind for so long.
I don’t care if we are 6-10 next year as long as we show progress. Progress to me, is using the top end picks wisely and methodically leading to a long term contender.
Your top picks are the ones you are in most control of because there are less variables involved. Trading down allows other teams to pick players you covet, eroding your draft board, only to be forced to roll the dice on a lesser player (not even necessarily the one you originally traded down to be in position for). Yes you gain picks in the later rounds but, as I present, they have a worse success rate. This just seems illogical to me more and more.
0 recs |
52 comments
|
Comments
Okung or Bulaga
if Okung is gone. I agree with you. Turn that #4 pick into the LT we will build our offense around.
Nice work.
Just as an aside, SB Nation is reporting that the Lions are interviewing Okung and McCoy. This may mean that Okung is gone at #4, that Suh may be available, or as some idiots suggest, we end up with Clausen as coughBPAcough.
Nice perspective on Shanny’s history of the draft. I wonder how it compares to some of the other teams for the same date range? It could be that 35% success for 3rd rounders is excellent or average. Don’t know.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Agreed
I thought about looking at Tampa’s and possibly Oakland’s for the same periods in questions but there are way to many variables to account for. If there are no trades before our pick, which I don’t think there will be, I am pretty confident that it is going to be:
1. Bradford,
2. Okung
3. Suh
I don’t think that Jim Schwartz camped out front of DE Vanden Bosch’s house and traded for Corey Williams soon thereafter, so that they could then draft a DT (regardless how good). I think those signings were to shore up the dline some so they could look at other positions with their 1st rounder and Okung makes the most sense with all the money they have tied up in Stafford..
Detroit is starting to look like a first class team
on paper. 1 more year after this draft they will be a dangerous team.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
1-3 are starting to look like my worst nightmare
The players for OLine, Dline and QB taken. Leaves a chance that we will end up with Clausen. Where is Matt Millen when you need him? :)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
if you're right
I’d consider McCoy (the DT) a better BPA pick than Claussen even if DT isn’t a pressing need for us. But I have to ask, would McCoy or Claussen really help improve the team as much as getting a quality LT would? I don’t think so.
I am wary of using Oakland in any way
shape or form as a benchmark for draft comparisons. Just a suggestion.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Looks about right...
I `d say Okung is probably Detroit bound or Tampa shows interest. We still have options if we can get some teams to bite on our 4th pick move slightly down the order in the first and get another pick later and still land a starting left tackle. We may have to throw a player in the deal but who needs what we have to offer. Or we stay at #4 and take the best player available and I do not think a QB for us is the way to go simply since he will not help this team with the way the season was last year as far as giving up sacks and lack of running game. When it was time to pass we were too predictable.
I'm tired of hearing "it's looking like..."
There’s still a month and a half of speculation and grading to be done, and even then, there will be so many trades that trying to predict who goes where will be impossible.
Agreed...
Now, what if Bradford tweaks his elbow just prior to Pro Day and everyone thinks it’s really his shoulder. This could mean he slides to the second round. Meanwhile, the Rams take Suh and Detroit takes Okung….:)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
What if we trade Carter to the Rams for Carriker and somehow switch picks in the package?
What if the Rams interview Clausen and decide he’s the better QB prospect and take him #1?
What if McCoy fits the Bucs defensive scheme better than Suh, and we subsequently get a few trade offers for suh?
Carriker for Carter may been seen as tilting in our favor
If we packaged our #4 overall and Carter for #1 overall and Carriker, I would have to think it would have to include our 2nd round draft pick and then some in that deal, which I think is too much.
Trying to predict the actual trade is pretty impossible too.
But the package would include those two, switching of picks, and more. It was all a rhetorical question to show how much can change in the next month and a half (and on draft day itself).
Predicting the trade itself yes
is impossible.
I don’t think that predicting the cost to move from one position (#4) to another (#1)if given an adequate margin of error, is insurmountable. Including players in those deals definitely complicates those transactions based on how they are viewed by each team and their positional value to each.
Future trades are generally (in a world devoid of Mike Ditka) based off of historical trades adjusted for changing market conditions.
When I said world
I was alluding to Ditka being part of the decision maiking of an NFL club, not neccessarily whether Ditka existed on the planet.
But I get the unclear nature of my statement.
I think he was saying
Orakpo is still a top 5 pick given his sacks and PB selection….?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
No crystal ball here.......
I do agree things could change based on Bradford’s pro-day. As of right now, however, most of the information out there seems to indicate or at least hint at 2 general shifts; 1) Bradford moving to #1 and 2) possibility of Okung going #2.
Neither here nor there, but here’s an interesting article doing additional research into Shanahan’s draft history I found a good read.
One particular tidbit: “The average [Wonderlic] score for all NFL quarterbacks is 24. The Post reported that the average score for the quarterbacks of the last seven teams to win the Super Bowl was 30.” Bradford scored a 36 on his and I wonder how much of this evidence alters a team’s decision making process.
Bradford
I think logic suggests that we should use our #4 pick to take a “franchise” QB, if one is available. Basically, this is (hopefully) the last time we have such a high pick, top QBs go very high, so this is our one and only time to get a top QB – once is a decade opportunity. Now or never. Conversely, there are a lot of ways to beef up the O-line – lower picks, trades, free agency (e.g., Gaither). So we must get Bradford if we can. Assumptions are that Bradford is a franchise QB, and that Jason Campbell is not (even though he is a good, serviceable QB). This suggests we should even try to trade up if that’s what it takes. And it wouldn’t necessarily apply to Clausen, unless Shanahan thought he was, indeed, a franchise QB. This argument is even stronger if Okung is gone, leaving riskier OL available. I myself don’t know enough about the QBs to know if they are “franchise” QBs – I would go with Shanahan’s judgement on that.
I am actually in this camp
One of the major reasons teams currently don’t trade into the top 5 of drafts is the economics. With the expiration of the CBA, I think we may see a rookie wage scale implemented into the draft with a slotting system similar to the NBA. On the “pro” side I’d love to see a system where there are no longer holdouts where people wonder if “Quarterback Joe” irreparably harmed /destroyed their pro career by haggling over their contract and not making it to camp on time.
On the flip side, if the economics involved with the draft were more palatable to teams wanting to trade up, I think you may see more teams making a play to get in position to draft potential franchise Quarterbacks (i.e. more competition).
This is the first I've heard of a rookie wage scale for this season.
Most have it happening next year, the time when we will know if we really need to draft a QB. We, of course, have way to many pressing needs to even consider a QB this year. So why overpay Bradford and assume the considerable risk that he will pan out when we haven’t taken care of priority one – our OLine?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Nope not this year
What I am getting at, is many have said, oh just wait until next year and get Locker.
Under the current system, I feel the cost associated with a top 5 pick makes it a deterrent to trading into those spots. For a team wanting a top 5 guy, they have the cost of trading up (draft picks), exhorbitant cost of the player’s contract (salary), and then the risk of the player being a bust (volatility factor).
For teams already in the top 5 they don’t have the cost of trading up, they are going to pay “someone” top 5 money regardless of the position, and the risk of busts is always there. I think this may be the last instance under the current system where there are teams in the top 5 (whether they want it or not) sheltered from other teams (outside looking in) jumping towards the top of the draft to get guys.
New system=less deterrents to trade up=more competition for premium players
Actually,
I think – say we have a good year and are drafting later in round 1 next year – since Top 5 picks will be cost controlled, there will be more demand to move up because dollar-wise it will be cheaper than this year.
The down side to that is that the current draft guideline/by points will have to be re-written. Let’s say this year it costs a late 1 and a 3rd rounder to get the opportunity to move up (and pay the current ridiculous rookie scale). Next year, the cost of moving up might be a late one and a late 2 instead of a 3rd since other, additional compensation may be required.
Right now one of the few controlling factors in moving up is the huge salary (and therefore greater risk) in doing so. When this goes away, the demand will feed other compensation factors.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Cheaper rookie salaries might mean more demand to trade up.
But there will be less incentive for a team to trade down, since they aren’t trying to avoid large salaries.
But then again
what you said. Which of course is another factor driving the cost of moving up. You will need to pony up more to provide the incentive, which is likely higher and/or more draft picks for the opportunity to move up. Whether or not many teams have them and or willing to do so (as much, more, or fewer times as the past) will need to be seen.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Of course
none of this pertains to us, RIGHT? Cuz we are never gonna mortgage our future and give draft picks away like Halloween candy again, RIGHT? I am all for trading down and collecting multiple starters/filling more holes, but I HATE trading up.
I will agree to let Shannahan make this decision
as there are no QBs worth taking in the 1st round.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
While I agree
that a #4 pick, ideally, should have more of an impact than say, the #8, that’s not a given. The draft will always be a crapshoot. And yes, you hope to not have the 4th overall pick ever again, so you should take advantage of it while you can. I have just think that volume is the better way to help your team, especially if you still end up with a fairly high first rounder. And this year is even more unique, because, if we did trade down, we could still get one of the 2 or 3 best Offensive tackles in the draft, then get another player (and possible starter) as well. As far as past numbers, it’s kind of tough to judge off of them because of how inconsistent drafting actually is. However, it would seem to me that the most consistent success for one position taken in the top of the first round would be offensive lineman. I don’t know if there are any actual numbers to back this up, but, just thinking at recent history, it seems to hold true. SO if we were to trade down, then get a Bulaga or Williams, we would still be getting a franchise cornerstone, with the possibility of adding another starter with the extra pick we get.
OK, here's an example
of what I’m talking about. This article pretty much mirrors my thinking.
Now, to add to it, it lists Gallery and Mike Williams as busts. While I wouldn’t dispute that, I will say that at least Gallery has still become a viable contributor, and there’s a chance Williams will too. Which shows that taking a first round graded O lineman would seem safer than taking a receiver (Charles Rogers, Mike Williams), a defensive end (Vernon Gholston), a runningback (Cedrick Benson), or even a quarterback (Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Heath Shuler…ugh, and can’t go on. But you get my point) I just think that, since there is no doubt we NEED major upgrades along the O-line, the chance to land 2 starters there, after neglecting the position for so long, would be the best way to optimize the #4 pick.
TY CJ, the theory is nice
but if the available talent doesn’t match/meet team needs why stay there if you can get “relative value” for the pick position. Berry may well be #4 player in the draft, or McCoy, or Suh but does this team need them based on the actual team needs that exist. Now I am working under the assumption that you believe the teams needs to be as follows in order based on my perception of need, yours may be different:
OL/ILB/OL/CB/RB/QB/S
if the top talent at OL is gone (I think most everyone is in agreement that it is Okung) and there is not a player that is rated as having anything regarding an equivalent value being available at that pick, why not trade down? Granted, you have to have a team that wants/needs the talent that is available at that time but with the dearth of solid DT’s and “playmaking” Safeties, that may not be as tough as thought. Who knows, another team in even more need of a QB could become enamoured with Claussen.
If the guy that they really want is there at 4, then take him naturally, if they suspect he would also be available at 6 or 8 or 11 and you have someone who wants up, then why not give yourself the opportunity to add another quality player. It is a draft, there are no guarantees. You cite (jamesumd, that is) that only 55% of his round three picks have stuck. Well if we have no round three pick and do not get one via a trade down, then there’s a 0% percent chance of getting a quality player at that position (depending upon Jarmon’s recovery). How much of a risk are they taking by selecting the next best available “cornerstone” lineman at 11 versus being at 4? I’m all for taking quality players but your arguement seems to be advocating the Matt Millen school of drafting, not sure that’s where this club needs to go.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
your "but" confuses me
I can’t tell if you’re responding to me, or to James. While James and I agree on most things, I am all for trading down to maximize the value of our pick. If there isn’t a player available to “turn around” our franchise (which, sorry Berry lovers, NO safety is gonna do), then getting 2 starters who can help us for the price of one makes much more sense to me.
lol
you guys are tossing layups today
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
Vinny's back at ashburn?
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
was agreeing with you CJ
I’m in favor of trading out of the spot if the player that they covet isn’t there.
I don’t think that Claussen or Bradford are “that guy”, I do believe that Suh and Okung are.
That’s just my opinion and I’m not going to be the guy sitting at the desk behind the Redskin helmet on draft night…just trying to have faith that these guys know what they are doing and I’ll root for whoever they pick, wherever they pick them.
I like the fact that Allen has given anybody anything and that it’s a complete mystery who the ’Skins actually want in the draft. Unlike Cerrato who would go on ESPN four days before the draft and reveal his entire draft strategy.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
er.....
has=hasn’t
sheesh what a rookie mistake ;-)
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Nicelys stated
I agree especially with your hierarchy of needs. And actually, the QB need could be filled via UFA and taken off the list this year.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
selecting the next best available "cornerstone" lineman at 11 versus being at 4?
So would Leaf have been the next available cornerstone QB from that draft. You said yourself that there are no guarantees in the draft.
There’s a reason Anthony Davis, Campbell, Bulaga, and Charles Brown are rated lower thanOkung for example. To varying degrees they have “perceived” holes in their game meaning they are riskier investments.
It seems a lot of people bring up that Okung is the safer pick amongst him and Clausen/Bradford for example, but can’t the same argument then be made for Okung versus, picking Bulaga and Charles Brown?
Agree with Hutch in that
I am fine with trading down if there isn’t a guy you see fitting.
If there is a guy you like but think you could get him 4-5 spots lower, I say don’t risk it. Just take the guy and move on.
Yeah, I'm good with that
Again, it all depends on the “vibe.” If we use this year as an example, I’d say that should Okung, Suh, and maybe Bradford be gone, and we want Trent Williams or Bulaga, we explore trading down. Mainly because Bulaga and Williams are similar prospects, and by now we are pretty sure that at least one of them will be there when we pick. Then, like I said, if we can pick up a 3rd rounder and land a possible starting caliber guard, or secondary help (like Myron Rolle or Owusu-Ansah) or, hell, even one of the quarterbacks, I think we improve our team a lot more than if we took, say, Eric Berry.
What about Schaub......
You say Dockett and Cooley are the bright spots of the 3rd round in 04…..you have Matt Schaub sitting there….Nick Hardwick, as well as Nate Kaeding. I wouldn’t have been mad to come away with any of them either!
Schaub I agree.
They were in the eight I noted, but yeah you’re right they realistically could have have been mentioned along with Dockett and Cooley.
You can DRAFT a decent kicker?
After watching the ’Skins the last decade, I just assumed you had to use whichever guy showed up first when you put an ad in the paper.
KC, Seattle, Oakland, and Buffalo; all top 10; are all likely to draft a LT.
Seattle and Buffalo may go Claussen if available, but all 4 will be looking LT.
Campbell and Davis may drop, but Bulaga and Williams will be top 10.
Campbell and Davis are major projects, and need 2-3 years to develope.
In my opinion of course.
very good
you know alot of us talk about maybe drafting a qb in the later rounds rather than the first but second and later round qb’s have a higher failure rate than the ones that go in the top part of the first round
by mr.snyderhireme on Mar 16, 2010 11:56 PM EDT reply actions
That would be a terrible waste of a draft pick
seeing as how we do not need to draft a QB in this year’s draft.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
I still think that moving down three spots in the 1st round
is worth it. If we can increase our haul in the first three rounds, I think that is what makes the most sense to do. I am not certain that it will be there to do. The Hillis part of the deal is the least likely thing to happen, obviously. But I don’t think we stay at #4 and turn down the chance to bring in a couple young starters onto the roster. We can do just fine at #7…we have more than 1 hole to fill.

by 

















