The Thursday Line -- NFL Week 6 Picks

If anyone out there cares, I am done betting on the Saints for a while. Jeeeeez...

My overall record against the Aussie, Pommylee, is now a miserable 14-18. Too close for my tastes.

If anyone is betting with Lee, you have been making money now for three straight weeks. Here are his gems this week (after the jump):

Pommylee:

Kansas (+4.5) @ Houston 

I really believe that Kansas City would be good even if they had not gotten Cassell and I think Houston is a soft, weak team-both mentally and physically.  KC has a great running game and although there are some ‘names' on the Houston D-Line, I think they will get pushed around and Kansas City will keep it close. They may not win, but they will be there at the end, so I'm picking Kanas to cover.  (Quick Tangent: The great frustration of our Houston loss is that while I am sure their Kicker is a known choker in big games and at big moments-I believe he choked on a 30-yarder last year at Indy-maybe this year he is a new guy...still very frustrating, would be nice if teams would choke against us.) Pick Kansas City

Browns (+14.5) @ Steelers 

Cleveland has been frisky all season, staying in games and keeping it close.  They have done that with Delhomme giving games away and Seneca Wallace (who I don't know much about but seems average...which is a positive by the way, since many teams don't even have average qb's). I think Colt McCoy will not be terrible and will certainly be better than Clausen-I put the line for interceptions at 1.5 and I think he will get the under, meaning he will keep it close, Steelers to win, but not cover.  Pick Browns

Miami (PK) @ Green Bay 

I like this Miami team for some reason and with Green Bay being so banged up after playing us I think Miami just has to play physical and they should take care of business.  How cool is it that the Skins are the Roster-destroyers of this season. Every team that plays us comes out of the games with concussions and season-ending injuries. Shows that whatever you may think of Haslett's blitz-happy approach (I'm conflicted, I like it but would like him to tone it down a little) it is making us play physical and with Big Zo just crushing people on punt returns it's fun to watch. Pick Dolphins 

Raiders (+6.5) @ San Francisco 

How the hell is San Fran more than a TD favourite in any game right now?  I was going to pick Oakland in this game if it was a pick ‘em and now I will just take them at the money line and enjoy counting my dough.  Oakland will win this by 2 TD's.  Has anyone else noticed that San Fran was 6-2 with Shaun Hill and ever since Smith came in they are about 4-15 or whatever?  Why does Shaun Hill get no love? Again, average QB is good in this NFL...you should be happy with that rather than punting on a Smith or a Clausen and hoping for something better. Pick Raiders

 

If I am going to have any chance this week, I am going to have to do it with close games. The big lines have been killing me lately.

 

Dallas (+1.5) @ Minnesota

Betting against the Cowgirls gives me no real pleasure. I root against them already and am plenty happy just to see them lose. When I bet against them, they have the ability to doubly hurt me: they can win and cost me money. This week though I am going to take that risk. Randy Moss is coming home and I am looking forward to seeing him single-handedly demolish that Cowgirl defense. VIKINGS

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Atlanta

Hmmmmm...the possibility of Vick playing against his former mates is tempting. I just see the Falcons as being one of the more stable, solid teams in the NFC right now. I can't believe I am saying those words either. Don't get me wrong, the NFC is completely up for grabs right now. But Atlanta seems to have something they can ride all the way into January. I think they should be able to handle a field goal line pretty easily. in fact, I see the Falcons running away with this game in the second half. FALCONS

Baltimore (-2.5) @ New England

I don't hate the Ravens...or the Patriots. Having said that, watching either team lose would make me smile. This week, I like the home team. The Ravens should beat the Pats...should. But I am not sold on them as the "best team in the NFL" just quite yet. Look for Tom Brady to crack that passing defense. PATRIOTS

New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay

I can't help myself...maybe the Saints were just tanking to set up a sucker line against the Bucs. Come on Uncle Rico! SAINTS

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