Break It Down: Jason Campbell's 2009 Stats in Extremely Fine Detail
by Kevin Ewoldt on Jan 26, 2010 12:07 PM EST
in Redskins Analysis
Email
Print 
Well, we’ve hit that awesome stretch of the off-season where we over-analyze the previous season and make egregious statements for what the new coaching staff will bring in. I am one that likes to focus on stats, which begins my multi-part post of statistically breaking down the 200 Redskins STARTING roster. ProFootballFocus.com is an interesting website who I have built a small relationship with. The guys at PFF follow EVERY player on the field 3-4 times for EACH PLAY and mark a score for that player’s contribution. (I provided the synopsis of how they do their ratings after the jump).
Looking at the pass distribution over 20 yards, the attempts appear to be pretty pathetic. Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco almost doubled in attempts over 20+ yards, but looking further into it, Campbell threw more attempts over 20 than Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner. Huh? Yep. Ironically, the Redskins beat both of these teams in total plays 40+ yards. The real reason for that is the screen. I’m getting a headache remembering the countless screens this team ran since the OL woes made this team exhaustingly one-dimensional, but I like this chart since it accurately captures plays that were ATTEMPTED over 20 versus achieved from a screen or Punter option.
Back to Campbell, his QB rating is high pretty much all over the field.
It’s greater on the left due to the better hands of Santana I presume. The dink and dunk over the middle to the TE and RB was the Redskins wheel house and highlights this team’s assets in Fred Davis and Chris Cooley.
PFF goes further breaking down Campbell's stats under pressure:
| Pressure | Drop-backs | Runs | Att. | Com. | Com. % | Yds | Yds / Att. | TD | INT | Sk | QB Rating | Pff.com Rating |
| No pressure | 379 | 12 | 367 | 265 | 72.2 | 2696 | 7.3 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 96.5 | 15.5 |
| Plays under pressure | 197 | 15 | 140 | 62 | 44.3 | 924 | 6.6 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 64.7 | -4.5 |
| When Blitzed | 197 | 5 | 175 | 101 | 57.7 | 1234 | 7.1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 79.1 | -3.0 |
| All Plays | 576 | 27 | 507 | 327 | 64.5 | 3620 | 7.1 | 22 | 15 | 42 | 87.7 | 11.0 |
We’ve all come to the same belief (for the most part) that Campbell is adequate enough to get the job done. Given how high his QB ranking is, that proves that. And just wait until you see PFF’s rankings on the Redskins Oline (post tomorrow). The amount of red on my screen looks as if my laptop was part of a gruesome murder scene.
Here's Campbell's weekly rankings. It's clear how much Jason improved when Sherman Lewis took over after the BYE week and Campbell was given the wrist-band to simplify play-calling.
Each grade given is between +2 and -2 with 0.5 increments and an average of 0. A positive intervention in the game rates a positive grading and vice versa. Very (very) little draws a +/-2 rating. In fact the distribution of non-zero grades is like this:
+2.0 0.01% +1.5 0.3% +1.0 16% +0.5 37% (unbalanced because of the way WRs and HBs are rated) -0.5 24% -1.0 22% -1.5 0.5% -2.0 0.01% The grading takes into account many things and effectively brings "intelligence" to raw statistics. For example a raw stat might tell you a Tackle conceded a sack. However, how long did he protect the QB for before he gave it up? Additionally when did he give it up? If it was within the last two minutes on a potentially game tying drive it may be rather more important than when his team is running out the clock in a 30 point blow out.
107 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
HA!
The amount of red on my screen looks as if my laptop was part of a gruesome murder scene.
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
Sam Bradford v. Jimmy Clausen v. Colt B
His highest QB rating is throwing for negative yards.
Someone should make a chart for how long he holds on to the ball. Just chuck it up into the air atleast. It came to a point this season where INT’s were prefered to Sack after sack after fumble.
Hopefully he is a nice mentor to whom ever his successor may be.
There's a reason he's throwing behind the line of scimmage
That was either the play-call or he’s getting killed.
His QB rating over 20 yards surprised me.
"It was one of those things where everyone in the building was suddenly excited again," Cerrato said. "And all the women in the building were the most excited. They couldn't believe we were getting the guy from "Dancing With the Stars."
by Kevin Ewoldt on Jan 26, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
about colt b
plus we all know colt has a rocket for a arm but he seems to fragile to me with all of his hip problems i still say give him a shot when camp starts ..
Shanahan won"t put up with the well below average QB play,that Campbell preformed,this past year.
Shanahan wants a smart QB,who is a leader out there on the field.One who can complete passes,not overthrew WRs by a mile and can get the passes to the WRs quicker and more accurately. Colt B.,T.Collins or any of the Draft class QBs in 2010 draft—C.McCoy,T.Tebow, Bradford even that Lefevor guy,can do it better in less time.We need a QB who is a winner,and has won the big games.Campbell is just going to be a career back-up QB.
by CHAOS-BRINGER on Jan 27, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
None of the QBs you've suggested
have won any big games at the NFL level. What a silly post this is.
all the college QBs that I listed have out proformed Campbell in their college careers.
they have not got to pro level yet ,but will be better than Campbell-for sure.
by CHAOS-BRINGER on Jan 27, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
0 credibility
“for sure”
There is absolutely zero certainty when drafting a QB.
I remember Jason
Qb’ing them to an undefeated season. But at my old age of 22, my memory is going to shit so I could be wrong.
SpottieOttieDopaliscious
I'm even older than you at 24
but I think you’re right, I seem to recall something about an SEC championship MVP, a victory over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl and consideration for the National Championship as a result…..
What happened to J.C. ? Why has he forgotten how to be a QB?
He is probably going to be a career backup QB.I hope thier is going to be a sucker,to give us a 1st and 3rd pick or at least a 3rd round pick for him.J.C. owes the Redskins a 1st round pick,we wasted on him 5yrs. ago.
by ghost rider on Jan 27, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
He hasn't forgotten how to QB
he’s just forgotten what it was like to play behind an OLine that knew how to block.
I wouldn't waste any time with this guy
He’s more interested in dressing up in sheets and burning crosses than actually thinking before he posts.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
HH laugh of the day comment
ROFL, spot on and funny!
I always wonder
Who do you think you’re fooling, changing from ghost rider to CHAOS-BRINGER? We all know (or should all know) that you’re the same person. Why do you try to have an opinion?
by Nobetterthenbob on Jan 27, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Only flaw to that is
he is also hellskin, so he’s like clark kent, super man and… batman?
by Nobetterthenbob on Jan 27, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking Flash,
cuz that’s what one inevitably does when one rides around dressed in as sheet.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
pressured vs holding on too long
Do they distinguish between the 2. To me presured is when the OL does not provide a decent amount (NFL average) of time for the QB to throw while holding on too long is when he does have the time but doesn’t get the ball out.
I think we’re to the point where facts are irrelevant (lokking at the previous post) and people are either for or against regardless of the facts.
I’m in the “pro Campbell” group until I see some evidence he has plenty of time and just doesn’t make the throw.
You also have to account for the play
that was called. 3 seconds may be plenty of time for a slant, but not enough time for a deep out. I’m just saying that “holding the ball too long” is highly subjective. Another example, not holding the ball long enough to set up a screen play. I don’t know how you can get an accurate set of stats based on well-defined metrics for these issues.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
The average fan
sees every sack as “holding the ball too long” because if you know nothing about offensive line play, then technically every sack can be avoided if you throw the football before being hit. While this is technically true, it is a crude and silly way to understand the failing of an offense.
Or, by definition,
the ball is held too long if the QB is hit without throwing it. Never mind the physics of the play, where the receivers are when he is hit, or if anyone actually blocked someone on the play.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
One Problem - This Site is Pretty Much Cr*p
I don’t know who these guys are, but I don’t trust their “ratings” and I don’t trust their stats. That’s the bottom line, keep reading if you want to know why I feel this way. The short answer is that they think that Jason Witten is the best BLOCKING TE in the NFL, by a lot.
Why I Looked
In a nutshell, I am involved in a football gaming group were stats matter, and we’re always looking for info on hard to get stuff, particularly on blocking values (OL/ballhandlers). This is the area that I look at for the group, so when a league member twigged me to the site I was intrigued. Once I looked I had questions, because their rankings don’t track anyone else’s. For example, they have Steve Neal of the Broncos as the #2 guard in the NFL. But I need a good source for ballhandler blocking so I went to look at their TE blocking. They have Jason Witten ranked not just as the #1 run blocking TE, but further – it’s not really close. Witten is given a rating of 15.2 at run blocking. One other guy (Anthony Fasano) is rated a 13.2, another major giggle factor (Kevin Boss of the NYG) is the only other TE in the NFL in double digits with a 10.7 run blocking rating.
Jason Witten, the best RUN BLOCKING TE in the NFL? To paraphrase the words of John McEnroe, they can NOT be serious. Has anyone ever heard any other source or analyst make this claim? I’ve never even heard the most arrogant Cowboy fan make that claim even whimsically.
Objective Data Comparison
OK, that’s just the subjective stuff in an area that I flatter myself that I know something about (or at least that I know something about what NFL insider positions are), so what about some other positions and ratings with more solid stats? I looked at two comparative guys, John Abraham and Andre Carter (both 4-3 DEs). PFF has John Abraham rated very highly against the run as a DE (+8.6), #8 in the NFL at this position. Andre Carter, OTOH, is rated as flat out terrible against the run by the guys at PFF (-8.1), #65 in the NFL as a DE at run defense. OK, let’s look at what we do know about these guys and their stats against the run (ignoring sacks and passes defensed as stats here):
NFL Stats for Abraham and his +8.6 run defense rating (http://www.nfl.com/players/johnabraham/profile?id=ABR073003):
16/15 GP/GS, 35t (30 solo), 1 forced fumble.
NFL Stats for Carter and his -8.1 run defense rating (http://www.nfl.com/players/andrecarter/profile?id=CAR609667):
16/16 GP/GS, 62t (48 solo), 3 forced fumbles.
While nfl.com doesn’t allow sorts by position, Yahoo sports does. According to Yahoo sports (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/bycategory?cat=Defense&sort=128) Andre Carter’s solo tackles tied with Trent Cole for the most solo tackles of any DE in the NFL (Abraham’s tackles were good for #31 or so among DEs) and Carter’s combined total was second only to Marques Douglas for all NFL DEs. A pretty heavy disparity, but OK, not all tackles are created equal – where they happen also matters. Yahoo also provides stats on stuffs (tackles for loss other than sacks). Carter had nine stuffs, which tied him for #5 in the NFL – among ALL positions (behind one DE and three LBs)! Abraham had fewer than 3 stuffs, because he didn’t have enough to make the NFC board.
Before you get hung up on their “stats”, bear in mind that they use their own stats instead of official ones. For example, they do give Carter 13 sacks in the 2009 season where the NFL only credits him with 11.
The questionable results in both the subjective and objective categories lead me to conclude that the PFF guys are full of sh*t until proven otherwise. This view is not enhanced by their web site, as they are singularly unwilling to discuss methodology or defend their ratings. In their section about their ratings they indicate that they don’t make a policy of responding to “hey, you rate x lowly and he went to the Pro Bowl, therefore you must be wrong” questions except to say that, hey they might be right after all … but that they welcome any criticism based on a similar sit through and grading of all NFL plays.
Well, that’s mighty generous of them; to me it seems a policy of ducking any need to defend their work, because the people who actually do that sort of scouting don’t do it to debate random blog sites posted by someone sitting in a suburban basement. The site itself has a minor fandom among random fans posting on NFL fanblog sites (hey, we don’t actually suck, ’cuz PFF says so!"). Color me unimpressed, and I highly recommend that you ignore their assessments of NFL players for use as anything other than lining bird cages.
Not sure I agree with this...
The Cowboys rushing on the Right End ranked 16th with 4.82 yards a carry.
Rushing through the right tackle the Cowboys ranked 8th at 4.96 yards a carry.
I’m waiting for responses from the SB Nation Cowboys blogger and PFF folks for more details to validate one way or the other.
"It was one of those things where everyone in the building was suddenly excited again," Cerrato said. "And all the women in the building were the most excited. They couldn't believe we were getting the guy from "Dancing With the Stars."
by Kevin Ewoldt on Jan 26, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
an interesting rebuttal
Personally I think there’s a limit to how much stats can define the effectiveness of a single player. In football the other plays make a huge difference and I have no idea how to factor that into the stats.
So where do you get your stats (for the football gaming group)?
Stats are the bottom line
Because the league that I’m in uses a simulation based on the old Avalon Hill game, Statis-Pro Football. For OL blocking, each team gets a certain number of points to allocate among the starting players based on that team’s ranking (which is a combination of ranking in total rushing yards and YPC). For assigning the points to the players on that line there are some NFL based OL stats on the NFL web site. But there is always going to be some subjective aspect. I rely on scouting assessments from Pro Football Weekly and The Sporting News, because I’ve noticed that their quality tends to hold up well over the years. I’ve dropped a couple of other publications (Lindy’s and Athlon’s) for blocking values because I’ve their evaluations have not been as reliable – where PFW may say a player or an offensive line is on the rise that team’s subsequent performance tends to validate that assessment in a way that hasn’t happened with Lindy’s or Athlon’s.
very interesting
I used to have Statis Pro-Football (and about a 100 other AH games) and I still have Strat-O-Matic Football. It’s hard to find players in this small city (Omaha, NE) though. I also have liked Pro Football Weekly for quite some time – they do seem to try to be objective.
Where can I find out more?
I like the rebuttal too.
It helps that it’s well written and supported with actual facts and links.
I agree with aFan4Life too though, that sometimes stats can be deceiving. Since football is such a game of exploits, teams will shy away from a strength (a great run-stuffing end) and focus more on a matchup in their favor.
Oh, absolutely ...
There’s a reason Smoot would often have more INTs than Champ Bailey :-)
With both Abraham and Carter on my league team, I watch both of them with more interest than the average fan. Abraham is much more of a one-dimensional pass rushing DE than Carter is. IMNSHO, Carter actually had much more of a Pro Bowl worthy season this year than Orakpo did, although Orakpo has an upside that Carter doesn’t and never did.
You look at linemen, I look at safeties.
And I have to agree, Reed Doughty IS the 7th best safety in the league. Haha.
Hard to follow that.
So I will just rely on the eyeball test. Last year was such an abberation that everyone can share in some blame. Offensive line injuries and inadequate substitutions were the main culprits of poor production. The run game also suffered due to injury and prima donna attitudes. The receivers could not regularly get open, and dropped too many balls. Campbell made just enough plays to post decent numbers, but not much else. The coaching staff could never figure out how to use the players they had, and it seemed form afar that there was clear division on offensive philosophy.
Add a regular influx
of just plain stupid play calling – esp. first 6 games of the season and it’s a wonder we even showed up statistically on any given day.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
I just spoke with the Cowboys SB Nation blogger, David
His response (which is respectfully objective):
Witten is a very good blocking TE, but the best in the NFL? Doubtful. Some TE’s are basically used solely for their blocking abilities. But make no mistake, Witten is a very good blocker in addition to his excellent work in the passing game.
"It was one of those things where everyone in the building was suddenly excited again," Cerrato said. "And all the women in the building were the most excited. They couldn't believe we were getting the guy from "Dancing With the Stars."
by Kevin Ewoldt on Jan 26, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Fair Enough
I wasn’t trying to say that Witten is a terrible blocker or anything like that. I have a lot of respect for Witten. Unlike other players (I’m looking at you, Shockey) Witten deserves the hype. But even David concedes that he’s not the blocking equivalent of the best in the league. PFF thinks that Witten is, hands down. To me this calls everything they say into question, a condition made worse because I don’t know who they are, what their qualifications are, and what their resources are. They only talk about their methods in the broadest of ways. And in some cases, the basic stats that they use (see AC’s sack total above) don’t gibe with those of people who are paid money by the league to track such things.
I believe that it was D’Israeli that said that there are three kinds of lies: lies,damnable lies and statistics. The PFF site can offer all the graphs and charts they trot out, but until they provide me with a reason to believe the data they are pouring in or the conclusions that they draw, I don’t take them seriously at all. YMMV
Witten
PFF isn’t necessarily saying that Witten is the best blocking TE in the game. It seems to me that what they’re saying is that this season, Witten was the best blocking TE in the game, which is different. The best blocking TE doesn’t always have the best blocking year, as with all other positions. Additionally, there may be an issue of playing time. Witten, as a star TE, will play alot more than TEs who are strictly blockers (the kinds of guys would definitively be better blockers than him), which, even with lesser blockers, means Witten accrues more total value as a blocker.
I hear you – but they don’t make those arguments. I can just as easily counter by saying that the way that the Cowboys use Witten (putting him in motion, splitting him wide and sending him downfield) undermine his direct impact on the running game.
And allowing for that, I still have trouble believing that Witten is that much more effective a run blocking TE than, for example, Vernon Davis of the 49ers. Davis, rated by PFF as a -9.4 run blocker, had a pro bowl season and played virtually every snap last year. Preseason analysis magazines from PFW and TSN acclaim Davis’s status as possibly the best blocking TE in the NFL … but PFF thinks he sucks. Without knowing who PFF is other than a url, I find their arguments unpersuasive no matter how many graphs and charts and color codes they use.
I’m not saying they’re right or anything, I’m just trying to account for why Witten might have been the best blocking TE in the league last season. I definitely agree that Davis is one of, if not the, best blocking TE in the league, and to have him at a -9.4 run blocker, that’s very suspicious.
Regardless, it’s still nice to see that someone is trying to provide a deeper analysis of of football than just the raw stats. Unfortunately, it looks like it is flawed, or at least not all the way there yet.
+1
I’d love to find a site that reliably provided such ratings – it would make my life much easier!
And yet your counter argument is subjective when you say
Davis, rated by PFF as a -9.4 run blocker, had a pro bowl season
We London Fletcher fans don’t take much stock in the “objective” nature of the Pro Bowl selection process. When the leading tackler in the league for an entire decade only gets to go once and that based on an exception for a player going to play in the Super Bowl.
I’m not disagreeing with you in the least, just an example of how murky this entire football stats environment is at best.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
We all know Cooley is a terrible blocker...
and he goes to the Pro Bowl every year.
I emailed the mainguy for PFF asking for a Wiki-esque background…I’ll post back what I get.
"It was one of those things where everyone in the building was suddenly excited again," Cerrato said. "And all the women in the building were the most excited. They couldn't believe we were getting the guy from "Dancing With the Stars."
by Kevin Ewoldt on Jan 27, 2010 9:24 AM EST up reply actions
I guess sending a fine blocking TE to the Pro Bowl
would seem like sending a QB based on the fact he had a lot of really good hand-offs during the season…
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
LOL
Not a good analogy, but it did make me laugh :-D
Actually,
I think its a great analogy. TE/Receiving is to QB/Throwing as TE/Blocking is to QB/Handing off. What’s not to like about that?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Srsly?
Even if you view receiving as the primary function of a TE, blocking is an important function. OK, handing off is an important function, too, but the because blocking is so much more difficult to master than handing off.
It’s like FB – the Pro Bowl has a strong bias towards those who run (the only reason Mike Alstott went to a bunch of pro bowls), but every now and then a Lorenzo Neal type of thumper gets in. I can see it happening with TE, too, esp if the guy can catch a little bit.
Yoder for Pro Bowl 2010!!
Let’s start the campaign now!
But Srsly, what a about a QB that had a high passer rating (say 100), but only threw 17 times per game for 200 yds and an occasional TD. Very few INTs. And they had a really strong running game and finished the season 14-2? Does he go to the PB as a great game manager and efficient passer (with some really nifty hand offs to boot?).
A lot of this PB stuff is all about flash and not so much the meat and potatoes that make for great football, I guess
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Sex sells.
TDs really help the passer rating, not sure you get there only throwing one TD a game. That said, this doesn’t give the Sportscenter guys much to talk about, so the running back gets voted to the pro bowl but withdraws for Super Bowl preparation.
I giggle
every time someone talks about how Cooley is more valuable than Davis because he is a polished blocker. He may be a better blocker than Davis, but to suggest that his blocking is good is a joke.
That's why we have,
and need to keep, Yoder. He can do it all!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Whoever doesn't think so
is just a TY87 hater and didn’t watch the video I posted. Did you see the video? Noone can do what Todd can do!
Agreed on the "Pro Bowl"
as being an unreliable indicator of talent. Once a player starts making the pro bowl, they tend to go for a few years after they no longer deserve it. Flozell Adams, for example LOL. I mentioned it as a side fact to compare his reputation to that of Witten overall. And even with Davis making the pro bowl, he probably gets more boost from is notoriety (former #6 pick, clashing with Singletary then turning his career around) than for his blocking skills per se.
And yes, blocking skills are maddeningly subjective LOL
You do recall, of course,
last year when they allowed fans to vote – the Redskins nation put almost the entire team into the ProBowl at one point. How ironic is that? Not as bad as what goes on in baseball, though, where a high priced, big name player is selected, despite being injured the entire first half of the season. “But…based on his stats for the first two weeks before he got hurt, he was projected to be at 30 home runs and 76 hits by July! Really!”
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
The way I understood it
was that a player received a + rating if he had a positive impact on the play (and a – if he had a negative impact, up to a factor of +/- 2.
Under that system, it seems very possible to me that Witten could have received a + rating for the vast majority of running plays he participated in even if he was primarily used as a pass catcher and even if he contribution to the play wasn’t all that obvious.
In this situation, Witten could still rate highly under PFFs system even though all of us watching seldom said, “Wow, look at how amazing Witten’s blocking skills are.” Remember, a lot of the blocking could have occurred downfield out of the shot of the camera rather than at the line.
Obviously, the rating they assign for each is fairly subjective, so your statement that Witten has been overrated by them is fair. My question to you is: if you think its so ridiculous to assume Witten is the best run blocking TE, who is?
Flashback - Don Warren
How’s that for a blocking TE? OK, he never caught very many passes in a season but he could maul people when blocking!
Yoder only comes close when he is
playing all 3 positions at once. Then he is a game changer. Err…sort of …. :)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Scott E , I am impressed you really have crossed over finally. Welcome aboard new JC 17 fan club member ...
by LETJASONPASS on Jan 27, 2010 6:56 AM EST up reply actions
LJP, we were never that far apart.
I just based my opinions on different assumptions and rationale’s. I’m also holding out my final assessment of JC until he hangs up his cleats or proves he can get it done with a decent line, some offensive weapons, and a workable offensive system under a reliable play caller. If we don’t see significant improvement – top 7 QB statistically – in the next year or two then we have to question just how good or bad he is. Right now, he definitely gets the benefit of the doubt – earned the hard way by getting his ass kicked all season.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Not to get into a "my stats are bigger than your stats"
contest with d_c_guy, but to focus on the issue at hand, JC, I think QB stats are a little more consistent than say blocking stats. Therefore, I believe we can take something away from the presentation here. It seems fairly obvious that no matter what we do in preparation for next year, simply by improving the OL, we should have better QB play and more consistency on offense. The more we do to improve the run game will only make the QB stats better.
So, this pretty much cements it with me to get JC a 3-yr contract and do not trade him under any circumstances. Why? Because the risk of getting any performance out of the next QB even as good as we got last year is such that we are totally better off by keeping him until we have something in house that proves different. Just the advantage of having worked with Moss, DT, Cooley, Davis, etc means he has a leg up on anyone coming in. If you are still hung up in finding the next Peyton Manning, wait until next year and then start your search using low risk, mid-round draft picks.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Here we agree ...
Having nothing to do with PFF, I agree there are plenty of indicators out there to show that JC17 is an NFL QB, though not a top flight one. He can be retained relatively cheaply in an uncapped year, and whatever other path we pursue isn’t going to be an instant result. Bottom line, the team is better with him than without him at this point, and that’s going to be true for at least one more season.
Today is the 19th anniversary
of the Bills Beat down for our last ring. It seems longer than that.
Plays under pressure
For comparison purposes I looked at the same table for Drew Brees. While Campbell was under pressure on 34% of his passes,
Brees was under pressure 26% of the time. The same sort of comparison could be done for Roethlisberger, Rogers, Peyton Manning. The percentage completions seem to be closely correlated with pressure/no pressure situations. If Campbell was under pressure at the same level as Brees he probably would have had a higher percentage of completions if he threw the short passes like he did in the 2009 season. The quarterback summary shows all QBs with significant playing time for a general overview.
I agree with Scott E in that it would be highly unlikely that another QB could do better in 2010 given Campbell’s experience with the receivers.
Meh
I think that the figures (34% under pressure versus 26%) are misleadingly precise – because on any individual play someone at PFF has to decide whether the QB was “under pressure” and notch a block on his or her spreadsheet. I don’t know who is doing the grading, what their criteria are or even whether they have the same camera shots for both teams.
I agree with the larger point that Campbell was put in a position that few if any QBs would have been successful last year, and still he managed to make some plays. I base that on the Mark I Eyeball test :-)
In the end
robots and computers don’t win games.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Sorry, Deep,
computers don’t win football games. I’ll concede in advance any and all chess matches to you, though.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Is there a way d_c_guy that you can.....
post an All-Pro team based on your stats?
So we can see what a computer mod would have for comparison purposes.
I wonder if a GM in football uses these comp models for player selection?
I know in baseball, the mods are huge.
Apples and Oranges ...
FWIW, it’s a board game, not a computer model – but like a computer model the ultimate goal is a system built around a simulation design, not a system designed to always designate who the best players are at run blocking or pass blocking. Even when Avalon Hill was doing the card sets for each season in the 1980’s, we used to joke about the “Barry Sanders Affect” that made OL for the Lions look a bit better than they actually were. The same is true for pass blocking – OLs blocking for pocket elusive QBs with quick releases (Dan Marino then, Peyton Manning now) would get better pass blocking numbers on average than a similarly skilled player blocking for the David Carrs or Aaron Rogers of the world.
Even in the simulation it is important to reward excellence in the context of the individual line, and the way our league does the card sets does have some flexibility to allocate those run and pass points on the line – which is why I’m constantly on the look out for accurate scouting assessments. After looking at the PFF results and comparing it to other tools, my conclusion is that theirs aren’t very good.
Oh ok, misunderstood. I am curious then....
How would a Nick Mangold, Joe Thomas, Steve Hutchinson rank in your game?
Chris Johnson ran for over 2,000 yards, were his linemen rated higher?
Would Peyton’s line be rated higher than an All-Pro?
I am interested in looking for some comp mods for research. If you know of any,
could you post them?
by johnnydee83 on Jan 26, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
I only have final numbers from the 2008 season, not 2009
But when it comes to doing the 2009 card set season, the Titan’s OL is going to have some serious numbers to throw around, thanks in part to Chris Johnson (who of course owes his 2,000 yards in part to them). Peyton’s linemen will be better at pass blocking then some pro bowlers, but Indy’s run blocking sucks no matter how you slice it, so they won’t have serious multithreats.
The game format rates offensive line run blocking generally being anywhere from +0 to +4; and pass blocking running from 0 to a 3. Occasionally a player will get a +5, but that would be HOF player in a career year; the only two examples I can think of off the top of my head were Anthony Munoz once and Dermontii Dawson once.
In the 2008 season there only 12 4 run blockers in the NFL, and only two were OT. Joe Thomas (4 1) was one of them, Jordan Gross of the Panthers (4 3) was the other. Other +4’s were: Den OC Casey Wiegmann (4 3); Ten OC Kevin Mawae (4 3); Atl OC Todd McClure (4 2); NYG OC Shaun O’Hara (4 2); KC’s OG Brian Waters (4 2); SD OG Kris Dielman (4 2); Min OG Steve Hutchinson (4 1); NE OG Logan Mankins (4 1); NYJ OG Alan Faneca (4 1); and NYG OG Chris Snee (+4 1).
Of those players, Todd McClure was a big beneficiary of Maurice Turner’s explosion in Atlanta. Faneca’s pass blocking was probably hurt by Favre’s performance as a statue the second half of the season, and Thomas’s pass blocking was hurt by the pair of QBs he was blocking for.
In 2008 Mangold was a +3 2; I like his chances at a +4 in 2009, but the card set is still in development.
When you say “comp mods’ I’m not sure exactly what sense you mean. If you want to take this conversation offline and spare everyone else then you can e-mail me directly at ”mailto:d_c_guy@yahoo.com">d_c_guy@yahoo.com
I agree
the assumption is that the decsion made by the film viewing is somehow factual and not subjective. It’s a problem anytime you have to assign a numeric value to something that doesn’t inherently have a number value. I’m a software engineer so I see people trying to do this on a regular basis.
This shows up regularly
if you are trying to create a project plan. How many billions have been invested to determine a reliable method/metric for software development? I feel your pain.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
What I've learned
is to fly well under tha radar when they start asking questions about methods and metrics for software development. :P
I merely triple me estimates...
The Captain thinks I’m a miracle worker
Scottie
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
I use the MD methodolgy
on my first estimate I had no idea what to do so I looked at the can of Mountain Dew I was drinking and saw a number there which was the number of ML in the can. I used that number as the # of hours and emailed the estimate to my boss telling him I used the MD methodology. He got a good checkle when he heard what I’d done (he had a good sense of humor).
I’ve learned the #1 rule is to never under estimate – anytime you go over on hours you are as evil as Hitler. If you go under you can always fill the time or work on something else.
It’s funny that people just can’t accept that an estimate is a crap shoot, and is subject to a lot of forces that can blow it out of the water.
Like quarterback evaluations
It’s funny that people just can’t accept that an estimate is a crap shoot, and is subject to a lot of forces that can blow it out of the water.
You have not lived until
you have been hammered by the govt during a contract review in which you are forced to explain how it is you are behind on a contract you were forced to under bid because the RFP dictated key milestones while capping expenses. BTW – not my idea that we bid on the contract in the first place; but a nice way to be temporarily employed.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
that's the world I live in
Dilbert’s work experience has nothing on the government puzzle palaces.
BTW
Its the same thing with budgets. It’s OK to establish a bloated budget and spend it on hookers and crack, but god forbid if you ever NEED something and end up going over a lean budget by thirty cents, you will be crushed by paperwork and hounded mercilessly by wringwraiths from the executive suite.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
lol
I can imagine and that’s as close as I want to get.
either way i dont care
its funny how he had better stats then cutler this year thats what a friend told me can you guys check that one . look if he takes a 2 year deal which he wont then keep him if not i said it time and time again let brennan fight for a job in camp with a veteran cause we have to draft some linemen that is a must ..
Well the high definitely lasts longer.
The only thing better is analyzing Joshua Cribbs’ stats. They rock! And they come with a video!!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
No one can do what I've
seen on JCribbs videos!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
The only way he could be more complete
is if he finished every highlight with a Malcolm Kelly-esque freestyle.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- From Cam to RGIII, and the weird psychology of draft analysis
- UCLA comes down with a case of Tebowmania
- Ellen tries to get Kate Upton to confirm Mark Sanchez is her boyfriend
- Sore loser Bully Ray spits beer in the face of Brandon Jacobs
- Anthony Shadid followed the Green Bay Packers, with love, from a distance
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
