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Is the Redskins Cornerbacks Situation a Serious Cause for Concern?

A new friend to Hogs Haven, Jon, who uses the author name 'Marion's Crackpipe', of the blog DC Landing Strip, recently posted an entry citing the Football Outsiders statistics for Smoot, Carlos Rogers, and DeAngelo Hall last year....and the results are not promising for the Redskins CB future. Statistically, DeAngelo Hall is not a true #1 CB despite being paid as one. 

Redskins_2bcb_2bmetrics_2btable_medium

After two games, it's easy to target DeAngelo since he misplayed that corner end-zone touchdown pass versus the Rams and missed tackles against the Giants. It is only week 2, so I'm not going to throw any of the players under the bus yet, but some things do stand out.

Some highlights:

First, it is very easy to forget that [Carlos] is 28 this season, and is 2 years older than Hall.

Indeed, that is easy to forget. Carlos is statistically a better corner than Hall across the board, but he is never considered "elite" due to the few numbers of turnovers he pulls in. One thing is clear though...'Los takes elite WRs out of the game.

One thing we can evaluate is DeAngelo Hall's career statistics and whether Dan Sndyer over-paid. Not shockingly, yes. Asante Samuel's age and contract cost is very similar to Hall's, yet Asante ranks MUCH higher in his ability to defend the pass and create turnovers. If the Redskins had decided not to sign Hall, I can't imagine any other of the teams paying $55 mil. Again, I love DeAngelo and he will give the offense some desperately needed turnovers, it's just clear he got paid more than he should have based on what the proven elite CBs get paid.

vs Pass vs Run
Asante Samuel Age Tgts Succ % Rk Adj Yd Rk PD+Int Yds Rk St% Rk
2008 28 73 22 29 28 76 81


In 2008, Asante broke up or picked off 38% of the balls thrown to him.
In 2008, Hall broke up or picked off 26% of the balls thrown to him.

Fans commonly would defend with the argument,

"Yea, but Oakland doesn't count. With Washington last year he stepped up!"

Not really. Hall's numbers were consistent to his career. In his 6 games with WAS last year, Hall defended or picked 27% of balls thrown his way. So common math implies the Redskins overpaid by approximately 12%.

THis year, Hall's stats lines are: 3 passes defended, 1 INT, and 10 tackles, which puts him in the middle of the pack of corners so far. For people that say he's not living up to his contract, he actually is. He's playing to his career averages. Moral of the story: Don't pay a player what you're hoping they'll perform at, pay them for what they are and build in incentives for what you hope.

If 2010 turns out to be a salary cap year, the Redskins could be in big trouble, which Jon pointed out:

As long their health holds-up though, our group is pretty good; the problem is that football is a contact sport, and DeAngelo Hall's contract may prevent us from keeping the real #1 CB on our roster.

1 recs  |  Comment 33 comments |

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Ah, the truth comes out.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.
I’ve been saying it since we picked him up last year. DHall is a ball hawk, but not a shut down corner. Carlos will never be able to play catch with his kids, but he’ll shut down receivers in the NFL.

Regarding the salary cap for next year (if there is one), thats a great thing to point out. I’m hoping for an uncapped year but I really don’t want to become the Yankees of the NFL.

by travisjh86 on Sep 24, 2009 10:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Carlos will never be able to play catch with his kids

That is pure gold sir.

I'm worried about the beer supply. After this case, and the other case, there's only one case left- Barney Gumble

by CptChaosSidekick on Sep 24, 2009 1:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Hall "MISSED" a few tackles?

Ok…I think there’s a pretty broad delineation between “Missed” and “avoided”. Hall is scared to get in front of these guys…I know masseuses that hit harder than he does, assuming he doesn’t shy away from the hit in the first place, which he typically does.

That’s why I like Landry or Horton, they’re not afraid to get in there and mix it up some.

It was almost funny watching Hall avoid getting hit.

by badaz06 on Sep 24, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Solid analysis

And a great example of the systemic problems with our beloved franchise. It goes something like this:
1. Owner overpays for average player who is coming off a very good season (see: Andre Carter, Adam Archuleta, Brandon Lloyd)
2. Salaries of others must be re-worked on an annual basis due to the new highly paid players and the salary cap.
3. There is little to no cap room leftover to sign -
a) draft picks (assuming the team has any)
b) quality younger players (assuming we have any) to long-term deals
c) super-important role players who can make a big difference
4. So the team is forced to -

a) trade draft picks (see 3a) in futile attempt to get better [and has no bargaining power because all other teams/GMs are aware of the mismanagement and desperate situation in D.C. (see: Taylor, Jason)]
b) sign re-treads (Mike Williams, Jeremy Bridges) in order to try to “improve” even though everyone involved knows that these players will not be solutions
5. Elevate expectations based upon offseason additions (?) even though the head coach is entering his second year as a head coach (at any level) and the previous season’s most glaring weakness (the offensive line) has not been upgraded at all.
6. Put a team on the field each Sunday that is simply not very good, thereby placing the “long-suffering” fans, many of us spoiled by the Joe Gibbs I era, in an awkward position: we have come to expect excellence and that expectation has been reinforced by the owner, so that when we see what we saw on Sunday, it’s tough to swallow. That plus some alcohol equals emotions and, perhaps, booing.
7. Place the coach and players in the awkward position of —
a) dealing with disgruntled fans in Week 2 (or even in preseason)
b) being on the so-called “hot seat” and playing so-called “must win” games in Weeks 2 and 3
c) trying mightily not to turn on each other and the fans despite the fact that they are “expected” to do something that they simply can’t accomplish, even on their best day

by artmonk4ever on Sep 24, 2009 11:00 AM EDT reply actions   2 recs

In a nutshell...

You hit every major point I’ve read or conceived of since Game12 of last year with regard to the state of the franchise. I’m schizophrenic, however, on the actual quality and ability of this year’s team. On my glass half full days, I see us getting some breaks and the defense pulls off a major stop of our opponent and we limp by as in last Sunday or even score a couple of touchdowns occasionally. I don’t even want to go to my half empty side at the moment. Unfortunately, this Sunday’s game has so much drama surrounding it for the Lions, not to mention we (and they) really don’t know how good they are – so whatever happens Sunday will likely not be a barometer for the rest of the season.

by Scott E on Sep 24, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah but

there’s a Hooters on the club level.

by CJHutch on Sep 24, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3. There is little to no cap room leftover to sign (new players)

PC’ s Redskins Salaries and Contracts Page -
http://www.adavidmooreorgans.com/pcinoz/Salaries_Pages_Summary.html

This page was last updated on July 25. Mike Sellers recently had some contract updates.
There have been a few changes in the practice squad. Anthony Alridge was added to the 53 player roster. Before Sellers contract change there was about $5 million cap space. Thomas shifted to injured reserve. “Offensive linemen Randy Thomas for example has a base salary of $1.6 million in 2009 and a cap number of just under $5 million but releasing him would add more than $8.5 million to his cap number …” http://www.predator48.com/?p=416

The following article is about a year old, but still has some insights:
Despite free agent frenzy, some teams prefer to grow their own By Vic Carucci
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d807363b7&template=with-video&confirm=true

by Jefferson1935 on Sep 26, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

is it an improvement?

We only overpaid by 12%? Wow, that’s much better than past free agent aquisitions. :P

by ZakInOmaha on Sep 24, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Are there similar stats for the safeties?

As a group, I’d say they are the strength of the team, which is why I think you see so many 3 safety sets.

On a related note, who likes my new profile pic?

by Boo. on Sep 24, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

what're you

multi-talking? Combining your time spent on talking Redskins with your internet dating?
Jesus -

On a related note, who likes my new profile pic?

            - you sound like my wife.

JK. Actually, I think in a short time Horton has become the best member of our secondary.

by CJHutch on Sep 24, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

though I agree with all the above...

lets not forget that PLAY CALLING was such a huge part of everything that transpired last Sunday, and ever since (booing, tweeting, bitching and moaning on blogs, hot seats, etc). With Snyder at the helm, players will continue to be over paid and over hyped and under perform in the current system.

by burgundyNgold on Sep 24, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Another gut check post by KevinE

This is all why I think seeing Kevin Barnes in street clothes is more disconcerting than anything. He was already a questionable pick for the 3rd round (with OL needs). But I was secretly fantasizing hoping that Barnes’ phenomenal Wonderlic score was perhaps some indication that he could maybe soak up our playbook like a sponge. At least enough to be ACTIVE. Smoot is declining fast (except against the run apparently) and Tryon is bench fodder. We can’t afford an injury to Rogers or Hall or we are in deep trouble. But especially Rogers. Add Cornerback to our growing laundry list of team needs in the 2010 draft.

by VA_Skin on Sep 24, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Intelligent drafting

is what we need but even if we start doing that it’ll take a few years to take the team beyond middling-crappy. Been said a million times but its still the truth. We also need to stop throwing the damn things away so frivolously (though I was Ok with the supplemental draft deal).

by SkinsOsTerps on Sep 24, 2009 8:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Best Member of Secondary?

Thanks for the comments gentlemen, although there is barely a shred of optimism….I wonder if fans would boo early this week if we were playing at home.

Anyway, I am open to ideas for my next stats post and have been thinking of doing position by position, with Landry’s poor performance in week 1 making me lean towards safety. The redskin safety metrics are tough to examine though, because we play Landry so deep that his run numbers aren’t great and his pass numbers phenomenal.

Rogers is better than Horton by numbers I think, but injuries and age could easily make Horton the more valuable player.

by www.DCLandingStrip.blogspot.com on Sep 25, 2009 1:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks again Jon

Stats for me are DE. Haynesworth is taking on everyone. Why do the DEs only have 2 sacks? I watched a TE man-handle Andre Carter. Unacceptable.

by KevinE on Sep 25, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

I was just talking to a buddy about this. Carter needs to be benched in favor of Orakpo, then put Wilson in at SLB. If Carter can’t beat his man 1 on 1, then he’s useless. Orakpo is the better player, and it’s time to put him in at his natural position. I envision the day where we line Orakpo and Jarmon up opposite each other and have BOTH DE’s wreaking havoc in the backfield. I don’t want the to get comfortable using Orakpo at SLB.

by CJHutch on Sep 25, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Horton

is playing better than anyone else right now. He’s playing the run and the pass, causing turnovers, pressuring the QB, etc, etc. The guy is all over the field.

by CJHutch on Sep 25, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not trying to get anything started but...
He’s playing the run and the pass, causing turnovers, pressuring the QB, etc, etc. The guy is all over the field.

That sounds like Troy Polamalu to me

by bigrm18 on Sep 25, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

why wouldn't you want to get something like THAT started?

I'm to young to Die Danny...don't make me do it tomorrow....

by Rekka on Sep 25, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

I was basically saying that Horton is good, especially for a 7th rounder, but I don’t want people to think that he’s on Polamulu’s level yet. Hopefully one day he’ll get up there, but he’s not yet.

by bigrm18 on Sep 25, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

He’s playing the run and the pass, causing turnovers, pressuring the QB, etc, etc. The guy is all over the field.

AND he’s got long hair.

by CJHutch on Sep 25, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it’s just clear he got paid more than he should have based on what the proven elite CBs get paid.

I could have told you that without the use of excel and those 3-4 spreadsheets

In 2008, Asante broke up or picked off 38% of the balls thrown to him… In his (Hall’s) 6 games with WAS last year, Hall defended or picked 27% of balls thrown his way. So common math implies the Redskins overpaid by approximately 12%.

Stupidest logic I have ever heard. So I could go out there, break or pick off 0% of passes thrown my way and by overpaid approximately 38%… That other 34.1 million though, thats all me.

=====

by dt3 on Sep 25, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

"We mock what we don't understand" - George Costanza

If you defended 0% of the balls, then you’d get 0% of the $. It’s a ratio…not basic subtraction.

by KevinE on Sep 25, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe Football Outsiders actually likened Horton's game to Polamalu's

Polamalu was hands-down best safety last year though, and Horton isn’t in that class, but the style of play is similar and even being in the same sentence is start….

DEs drive me crazy, Fat Albert turned some decent guys into All-Pros in Tenn, so Carter should easily have double-digit sacks this year, which isn’t looking likely right now. And Rak playing LB is beyond absurd, I posted on my site awhile back about it:
http://dclandingstrip.blogspot.com/2009/06/dc-landing-strip-correspondent-marions.html

by www.DCLandingStrip.blogspot.com on Sep 25, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm a little late here but...

TRADE CARLOS ROGERS!! HE ADDS NOTHING TO THE REDSKINS DEFENSE. HE’S PROVEN HIS INABILITY TO CATCH, COVER, AND DEFEND FOR 4 YEARS NOW!

by Elaw6 on Sep 25, 2009 10:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

seriously?

he’s one of the better corners in the NFL….you really want kevin barnes there?

by KevinE on Sep 26, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, you really are late

If you had said this when Rogers first was on the team, people would have agreed with you. But Rogers has slowly but surely become one of the better CBs in the league. He just doesn’t get a lot of recognition because he doesn’t intercept the ball. He’s also BY FAR our best CB, I’m hoping that we resign him this coming year, because if we don’t we’ll be in BIG trouble.

It’s only been two games, but DHall is scaring me thus far. He’s been looking pretty crappy for us. Hopefully he can turn it around in the coming weeks, if he doesn’t….

by bigrm18 on Sep 26, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What?

The Redskins have cornerbacks? Really???? When did that happen? I missed it.

by John1710 on Sep 28, 2009 8:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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