The Redskins are this year's Futures bet Cinderella
by Kevin Ewoldt on Mar 31, 2009 9:26 AM EDT
in Redskins Analysis
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Taking a look at the futures for next year's Super Bowl winners, I think the Redskins are the best bang for the buck at +3000, and I have 8 reasons to back it up....
As of September 1st, 2008, just prior to the beginning of the NFL season, these were the futures odds for the 2009 Super Bowl winner:
2009 Super Bowl Odds as of 9/1/2008
| Team | Line |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +300 |
| San Diego Chargers | +700 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +750 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +750 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1400 |
| New York Giants | +1800 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1800 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +2000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +2000 |
| Green Bay Packers | +2500 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +2800 |
| Cleveland Browns | +3000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +4000 |
| Washington Redskins | +4000 |
| Denver Broncos | +4000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +4000 |
| New York Jets | +4000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +5000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +5000 |
| Chicago Bears | +5000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +6000 |
| Detroit Lions | +6500 |
| Houston Texans | +6500 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +7000 |
| Buffalo Bills | +7000 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +7500 |
| St Louis Rams | +8000 |
| Oakland Raiders | +9000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +10000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +12500 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +20000 |
There are a lot of interesting things here. The Ravens and Dolphins at really high value both made the playoffs. So certainly Vegas doesn't know everything. It is quite comical talking to my college friends who are Giants and Birds fans. They treat the Skins as laughable with 0% chance to win anything. They also think Jason Campbell has as much value as Koy Detmer.
What makes futures work is knowing the probabilities. I don't think Vegas properly took into account these factors regarding the Skins:
1.) Zorn and Blache deploying their 2nd year of head coaching.
2.) Addition of Haynesworth to a 4th ranked defense
3.) Chris Horton in his 2nd year and a healthy Laron Landry (he played hurt 1st half of season)
4.) Addition of team locker room leaders Daniels and Wynn
5.) Emergence of Devin Thomas
(I know this one is more of a grey area, but they proved off-season they are ready to step up. Malcolm and Fred provide great backups should we lose Cooley or Randle El to injury)
6.) Jason Campbell.
(Another "if." However, our defense will have the Skins in better field position, and he does not turn the ball over.)
7.) Offensive line. Addition of Dockery and continued 1st team workouts for Heyer and Rinehart.
8.) #1 Draft pick. We will be adding either an OL, DE, or OLB on day one. Worst case scenario we trade back and spread out our picks for some depth.
My ONLY concern is the kicking game. Every Super Bowl winner I can think of the past decade has had a clutch kicker, with Adam Vinatieri being half of those.
Here's the up-to-date list for the 2010 Super Bowl winner. Whether you agree or disagree with my logic, I think towards the end of the season in 2009, the Skins will be a lot lower than +3000. I will be in Vegas mid-May, why not throw a few bucks down?
| To Win | As of 3/31/2009 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +800 |
| New England Patriots | 550 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1200 |
| New York Giants | 1000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1000 |
| San Diego Chargers | 1400 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1500 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 2000 |
| Tennessee Titans | 1700 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2200 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2500 |
| Denver Broncos | 3000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2500 |
| New York Jets | 3500 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4000 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4500 |
| Chicago Bears | 4000 |
| Washington Redskins | 3000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4000 |
| Houston Texans | 4000 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5000 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7000 |
| Oakland Raiders | 9000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8000 |
| St Louis Rams | 10000 |
| Detroit Lions | 15000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6000 |
Source: [BetUs]
With Tom Brady back to full health this year and with the ex-orbitant amount of early round draft picks the Pats have, I also like their odds in winning the Super Bowl at +550 (if was going to throw down big money).
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There's a lot to dispute here...
The Skins winning the Super Bowl is a stretch….but possible. (We’re always one player away right). The fact is, there are always non-playoff teams from the year before that make huge advances. The Chiefs remind me a lot of the Dolphins last year. New coach, QB, player of personnel. I’m just saying…to lay 100 to win 3000 w/ the Skins current roster, that aint so bad.
While at the same time to place
100 to win 2000 with Baltimore, this team played very well in 2009 to make the playoffs: significant changes have occured on Defense I wouldn’t bet they would have even a similar year, expect a decline.
What about the Dolphins? at +4500, I thought they had “THE MAN” putting together the lineup and were sure to make great strides each year. they are still considered a bottom rung team: How many years does Parcells get to make his “magic” occur, the same as Danny?
Dallas at 1200 is a laugh, considering they have never won a playoff game with Tony.
Colts at 1000, they have gone through a significant change, will they be able to hold it together?
Washington is a good money bet
Homer or not, Washington has a 3000-1 chance to make the SB, with 14 teams below them. That is exactly were the Washington Redskins are, the bet would then be that they will exceed excectations to win the Superbowl. The “IF” and “Hopes” line up it is possible.
+1
Arizona would not have made the playoffs last year if they were in the NFC East. They got gifted a playoff berth being in the West and only having 9 wins. I think the NFC East took a big step back this year, specifically the Cowboys and Giants, so the Skins I think have an easier schedule than people thing (we play the Rams, DET, and Oakland too). I’m penciled in to go to Vegas Mid-may…I plan on putting my $$ where my mouth is. Tho I expect the line to move against me after the draft (unless we draft a kicker).
by Kevin Ewoldt on Mar 31, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops...
mean to say..‘specifically the Cowboys and Birds’
by Kevin Ewoldt on Mar 31, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Cowboys?
Seriously How can the Cowboys be that heavily favored? Does no one else realize that without TO stretching the field that their offense isnt going to be that great and their Defense was average at best I would put them as a mid teir NFL team in 2009!
their Defense is
flat out bad…and thin..where there is actually some talent
*facepalm* Cowboys..
Every year the Cowboys are rated near the top and every year they fail to win a playoff game. It’s been what..12 years now since they’ve won a single playoff game? I just don’t get how they can continually be rated so highly.
In any case, an argument can be made for the skins to both extremes. If you look over their recent seasons of mediocrity, it’s not like they are continually, or even often getting blown out. They are competitive in just about every contest. Rarely are they clearly outmatched (it does happen though, don’t get me wrong). If they can bring it together and Campbell can find his stride (and they can manage to protect his ass a little better), there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be a contender.
Slug
Cowboys fans...
like Yankees fans, always drink the Kool Aid. If and when they win the Super Bowl and Vegas doesn’t cover all bases, it could be a huge loss.
They're always rated so high
Because they’re the supposed “America’s Team”
I hate whatever idiot that was that started the whole America’s team phrase. If there truly was a team that represented America then there’d be no reason for the 31 other teams in the NFL.
It only makes sense
that the real “America’s Team” be based out of the capital of the United States of America.
Hail !
Oh, no.
Naturally, “America’s Team” should be based in Texas — the only state of the union that was once an independent foreign freaking country.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
by DbacksSkins on Mar 31, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
how mind blowing your statement is...
your statement sounds like from the mouth of a true moron.keep it up but, no crap, and agreed. Hail!
by CoarseGrinder on Apr 1, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
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