The Redskins are this year's Futures bet Cinderella

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Taking a look at the futures for next year's Super Bowl winners, I think the Redskins are the best bang for the buck at +3000, and I have 8 reasons to back it up....

 

As of September 1st, 2008, just prior to the beginning of the NFL season, these were the futures odds for the 2009 Super Bowl winner:

2009 Super Bowl Odds as of 9/1/2008

Team Line
New England Patriots +300
San Diego Chargers +700
Indianapolis Colts +750
Dallas Cowboys +750
Jacksonville Jaguars +1400
New York Giants +1800
Minnesota Vikings +1800
Pittsburgh Steelers +2000
New Orleans Saints +2000
Philadelphia Eagles +2000
Green Bay Packers +2500
Seattle Seahawks +2800
Cleveland Browns +3000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4000
Washington Redskins +4000
Denver Broncos +4000
Tennessee Titans +4000
New York Jets +4000
Arizona Cardinals +5000
Carolina Panthers +5000
Chicago Bears +5000
Cincinnati Bengals +6000
Detroit Lions +6500
Houston Texans +6500
Baltimore Ravens +7000
Buffalo Bills +7000
San Francisco 49ers +7500
St Louis Rams +8000
Oakland Raiders +9000
Miami Dolphins +10000
Kansas City Chiefs +12500
Atlanta Falcons +20000


There are a lot of interesting things here. The Ravens and Dolphins at really high value both made the playoffs. So certainly Vegas doesn't know everything. It is quite comical talking to my college friends who are Giants and Birds fans. They treat the Skins as laughable with 0% chance to win anything. They also think Jason Campbell has as much value as Koy Detmer.

What makes futures work is knowing the probabilities. I don't think Vegas properly took into account these factors regarding the Skins:

1.) Zorn and Blache deploying their 2nd year of head coaching.
2.) Addition of Haynesworth to a 4th ranked defense
3.) Chris Horton in his 2nd year and a healthy Laron Landry (he played hurt 1st half of season)
4.) Addition of team locker room leaders Daniels and Wynn
5.) Emergence of Devin Thomas
(I know this one is more of a grey area, but they proved off-season they are ready to step up. Malcolm and Fred provide great backups should we lose Cooley or Randle El to injury)
6.) Jason Campbell. 
(Another "if." However, our defense will have the Skins in better field position, and he does not turn the ball over.)
7.) Offensive line. Addition of Dockery and continued 1st team workouts for Heyer and Rinehart.
8.) #1 Draft pick. We will be adding either an OL, DE, or OLB on day one. Worst case scenario we trade back and spread out our picks for some depth.

My ONLY concern is the kicking game. Every Super Bowl winner I can think of the past decade has had a clutch kicker, with Adam Vinatieri being half of those.

Here's the up-to-date list for the 2010 Super Bowl winner. Whether you agree or disagree with my logic, I think towards the end of the season in 2009, the Skins will be a lot lower than +3000. I will be in Vegas mid-May, why not throw a few bucks down?

 To Win As of 3/31/2009
 Pittsburgh Steelers     +800
 New England Patriots     550
 Dallas Cowboys     1200
 New York Giants     1000
 Indianapolis Colts     1000
 San Diego Chargers     1400
 Baltimore Ravens     2000
 Philadelphia Eagles     1500
 New Orleans Saints     2000
 Minnesota Vikings     2000
 Carolina Panthers     2000
 Tennessee Titans     1700
 Atlanta Falcons     2200
 Green Bay Packers     2500
 Denver Broncos     3000
 Jacksonville Jaguars     3000
 Arizona Cardinals     2500
 New York Jets     3500
 Miami Dolphins     4500
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers     4000
 Buffalo Bills     4500
 Chicago Bears     4000
 Washington Redskins     3000
 Seattle Seahawks     4000
 Houston Texans     4000
 San Francisco 49ers     5000
 Cleveland Browns     7000
 Oakland Raiders     9000
 Cincinnati Bengals     8000
 St Louis Rams     10000
 Detroit Lions     15000
 Kansas City Chiefs     6000


 Source: [BetUs]

With Tom Brady back to full health this year and with the ex-orbitant amount of early round draft picks the Pats have, I also like their odds in winning the Super Bowl at +550 (if was going to throw down big money).

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