6 Factors that Help the Redskins' Chances in Upsetting the Saints
by Kevin Ewoldt on Dec 3, 2009 7:45 AM EST
in Redskins Analysis
53 comments
Man, I love the Saints, but I've had enough. The Tiger Woods' debacle is only entertaining to me since it's taking away from the 24-hour ESPN coverage of how the bigger than Jesus Saints turned Tom Brady and Bill Belichick from Patriots into drummer boys.
Don't get me wrong. The Saints are phenomenal, but for them to come into D.C. and blow us out seems too easy. Let's take a look at the multitude of factors that the Saints face this week:
1.) Mother Nature. Current forecast for Sunday is a HIGH of 43 degrees. This will be the first time the Saints have played in cold weather since their loss to the Bears week 15 last year at Chicago (24-27). Taking a hit in cold weather is a MUCH different feeling than the Snuggie-like warmth of the domes. The Saints' offense should be slowed down some due to the frigid conditions. Also, the Saints currently have 18 players on the injury list. I expect that to grow when these Saints' players meet the combination of winter and London Fletcher.
2.) Saints are on a short week. They did not practice Wednesday, but did lift some weights and watch tape. So, that leaves two days of on field practice.
3.) It's very easy for the Saints to over-look this game. Saints are still the talk of the country, and certainly, the win is still fresh on their mind. It's simplistic thinking to assume blowing out the Pats means the Saints can blow out all other 30 teams. The Rams game was almost proof of this.
4.) Albert Haynesworh. Fat Albert is back, and we all know what he does for the Skins' pass rush. The Saints do not rank well rushing between the tackles to begin with, so Albert should add a nice push. Brees is the 3rd least sacked and hit Qb in the league. If Orakpo and Andre can get some QB hits on Brees early, especially in this cold weather, it will make a difference.
5.) Gregg Williams. He knows our team, but the Skins also know him. At Redskins Park players were all smiles knowing the scores of blitzes he will be throwing at Campbell. Jason's take on Gregg coming after him?
"I know he still has a house here. I know where he lives at.(laughing)"
"It'll be that Mr. Miyagi, Karate Kid thing," Smoot said. "Like going against the teacher, you know?"
6.) Trends. Jason Campbell is 2-0 against the Saints, while Sean Payton is 0-2 versus the Skins. I know this stat means squat, but they have beaten this team before.
What's disappointing is DeAngelo Hall is still very doubtful to play. Anyone that knows me knows that I take more of the pessimistic side of predicting my outcomes. I don't see any reason why the Skins can't cover the 9.5 spread or pull out the surprise win.
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Once again
I can see all this happening. Now if I can only see all this happening on a Sunday or Monday night….
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Noise?
:-)
http://media.nola.com/saints_impact/other/saintsdecibel120109.pdf
Yeah, right.
Ever experienced 120 dB? I have, heck, I’ve CAUSED it personally (professional musician), and you cannot create THAT level of noise on the field at an open stadium game from crowd noise.
As for the “6 Factors”, the ONLY one relevant will be #2, and I think it’s safe to say that won’t matter much either.
Y’all have fun Sunday…I know WE Saints fans will…
Irony: An atheist Saints fan.
by GSO Saints Fan on Dec 3, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
You haven't experienced it on offense, however
And don’t underestimate FedEx when we get it rocking. It can be a very tough place to play.
When they're already up 14+ points...
…I’ll bet you can hear a pin drop when the Saints have the ball in FedEx Field.
:-)
Don’t forget: The Saints defense leads the NFL in QB passer rating allowed, is #3 in achieving 3-&-out for the opposing offense, and leads in forced turnovers, interceptions, and TD’s scored by the defense.
Against Jason Campbell…
…yeah, noise – not a factor. ;-)
Irony: An atheist Saints fan.
by GSO Saints Fan on Dec 3, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps Brees doesn't like the crowd noise at FedEx
considering he’s thrown 1 TD and 6 INTs in his career vs. the skins. Just sayin’….
Im a HUGH SAINTS FAN and I live the DC metro area and work at FedEx Field.
You need to be honest here the last Four home games dating back to the Monday night game aganist Philly if you were there you would have swore that you were at the Linc. The crowd noise will be for the SAINTS and not the DEAD-SKINS. Once the game is a blow out the Skins fans will cheer for the SAINTS. Believe it
WHO DAT NATION will rename FedEx to WHO DAT NATION FIELD!!!!!!!!!!
You guys couldn't afford...
to change the stadium name.
Dem guys don’t got enough money. Maybe all yall shaw should bake up some jambalya pies for a bake sale to raise dat money. mmmm, some scrimp and sausage and cajun spice!
Anyone ever seen that movie Southern Comfort? Everytime I hear “dat” and “dem” all I can think of is that one-armed Cajun they caught in the swamp.
What about that guy from The Water Boy and Joe Dirt…. “The home is where you make it”…. “Yeah that’s fine man, so you like to see home boys naked.”
Ahhh, you Louisiana people are funny. Like clowns. Every time I hear you talk I just laugh.
by DCtoAustralia on Dec 4, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
This one is going to be real ugly.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Saints fan here...
I highly doubt that Payton & co. will over look you guys. You have been a thorn in our side since Payton arrived. I would say this is a trap game, but after the 2006 game where you knocked us back to reality after we destroyed the Cowboys was humbling, and then last year beating us by so little, I think SP and Breesus (I know you guys would LOVE that reference) will have the Saints there to play,
I can’t over look a team playing as good of D as you guys are and the fact that you almost beat Philly and Dallas has in our radar.
I think this game is actually more important for the Saints than the Pats game. 1st, you’re in our conference, which at this point of the year, is a must win. And 2nd, I think SP needs to get this monkey off his back. 0-2 against you guys should have him fired up.
Look forward to the game, should be fun. Too bad you guys couldn’t sit Big Al for 1 more week!!!
"For us, there is no spring... only the smell of fresh wind before the storm."
-Conan of Cimeria
A couple of these don't make sense
1. The outgained the Bears 345-226 in that game last year and lost because of the terrible secondary repeatedly getting pass interference penalties against Devin Hester (5 for 97 yards). They also outgained Chicago 375-340 in the championship game three years ago. Maybe the temperature affects turnovers, but it doesn’t follow from those two games that it affects the offense in general.
2. Fair enough
3. In those games where the Saints “struggled,” the Saints were on the road vs teams that were coming off of byes. A lot has been made of the Rams game, but the Saints were leading by 11 with 4 minutes left in the game. St Louis had to score a touchdown, stop the Saints from getting a first down and then drive from their 20 yard line in that amount of time just for the opportunity to throw a hail mary. I’m sorry, but that game was nowhere near as close as you’d think from looking at the score. I don’t think they’ve overlooked anyone as much as an undefeated team ends up getting everyone’s “best shot”.
4. If the Saints do not rank well rushing between the tackles (i’m taking your word for it) but also have the 5th ranked rushing attack (in both yds/game and yds/carry), then wouldn’t it make sense that their strength lies in off tackle and sweeps? Haynesworth is a fantastic player, but it’s unclear how him returning to the lineup impacts what is already a weakness to begin with.
5. I don’t know that either side gets an advantage from having practiced against each other. But, who do you think has the bigger chip on their shoulder? Zorn, Campbell, etc or Gregg Williams? Insulting doesn’t describe what Danny boy did to him two years ago.
6. You’re right, it doesn’t mean much that Jason Campbell has beaten a defense that had Fred Thomas and Jason David starting at corner.
A lot of good rebuttals there
Skins offense isn’t any more productive then when Rex was running it in Chi-town do that’s fair.
Having Haynesworth back means our ends usually get 1-1 coverage, which makes things easier for everyone, especially the line backers.
Forecast for snow here on Saturday. I’m stretching. I know this. But it’s thinking like this that makes it a reason to keep watching on Sundays.
by Kevin Ewoldt on Dec 3, 2009 12:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
a comparison maybe?
you may have a point on the one-on-one coverage against your defensive ends. vince wilfork demands a lot of the same attention that haynesworth does, and New England certainly held us well below our average rushing yards per game total. There were some plays where Carl Nicks (LG) simply blew up Wilfork and there were some plays where Wilfork got his revenge. I’m tempted to think that the Patriots 3-4 defense with quick outside linebackers had more to do with stopping our outside running than wilfork though.
interesting point, especially if your ends a quick. I know Orakpo is, but what about the other guy?
News
NewsFlash: 43º aint all that cold. It’s that cold today in Metairie, where the Saints practice. If the Saints take care of the ball, they’ll take care of the Redskins.
43 degres in La is different than the same ....
Temp in the North East it is all about the air. It feels no where close to the same….
i grew up in new orleans and lived in alexandria for two years and can definitively say that the same temperature in louisiana is almost always “colder” than in the northeast. I say almost always because in order for the temperature to even approach freezing down here, it requires an overcast/rainy day.
there were plenty of days in washington where it was 30 degrees and sunny and felt fine. when it’s 30 degrees here, it is f’ing miserable outside.
if i had to put a temperature range on it, i would say this effect holds for temps under 40 degrees. and, of course, it never gets below 30 here, so it stops there
Only if you
have a good O-line for protection, LJP! :)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
we would be going to .....
the playoffs if we had a good o-line ..
by LETJASONPASS on Dec 4, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
LETJASONPASS, you're right.....
…..43 in Louisiana is more like 23 in DC.
Humidity brother, humidity. DC gets it in the summer, NOLA gets it 24-7, 365, and think 80%+ every day.
The cold in Louisiana will cut through you like a knife through melted butter.
The temperature will be a non-factor.
Irony: An atheist Saints fan.
by GSO Saints Fan on Dec 3, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Skins Can't Close the Deal
My two favorite teams growing up were the Redskins and whoever was playing Dallas. Even the most ardent fan must admit that ever since the ownership change the Skins have been sucking hind tit on a boar’s belly. I have lived in the NOLA area for the past 15 years and am a season ticket holder. New Orleans has a special team this year and I doubt there will be a let down this week. Face facts people, Washington will once again find a way to snatch defeat from jaws of victory (as they have the last two weeks). Even if Zorn would have an epiphany and discover how to coach overnight, there is such a culture of losing I am not sure this team knows how to win.
you are wrong my friend
to ’Snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory" it implies we must be near a victory at some point…. we wont be!
Dont get me wrong I hope we win, and between now and Sunday my heart will convince my head that it can be done, but in the cold logical reason area of my brain I know that this will be our first flogging of the year.
Williams will have a whole “Do it for me this week boys, this organisation screwed me” attitude with D, and the word is that the players love Gregg with the double G down their and I can just see Brees picking on Carlos Rogers and LaRon landry all afternoon
its not gonna be good
Pommylee
I'm pessimistic
as usual. I think our best hope is that the Saint’s are looking passed us and simply don’t show up because if it comes down to anything else we’re way over-matched. If they take us on like they took on the Pats we’re going to get shredded ugly. Unless Haynesworth happens to fall on Brees. At which point I will personally fart the tune of When the Saints go Marchin’ in. Any Saints fan who reads this should not be offended as I will probably be rooting for you all in the play offs.
Our best hope is Brees gets injured...
That leads to an interesting question. Who would the game if Mark Brunell was playing the whole game? I’m taking the under either way…even if the total is 11.
* - Brees
Note: I don’t want to see an injury…just saying that’s what it would take. I’d love to see New Orleans get to the Super Bowl.
Hey what about a twenty-four hour stomache virus .....
Brees could have it coming out of both ends just for 3 hours on Sun 1-4 pm
If that happened
I think the Redskins chances suddenly get a whole lot better. It would put us in sort of a Broncos game part II. After Orton left the game the deep threat evaporated and we were able to win. I think considering Brunell’s age/arm strength, if Brees* left the game there would be a similar result. It turns the game much more into a defensive battle where the Skins at least have a shot as long as the offense can sputter out a few points here and there.
*Like KevinE I have no desire to actually see something like that happen to Brees.
Saints offense will be slowed...
I can see the Redskins D putting up a very good fight and holding the Saints offense below its averages.
What I don’t see though is how the Redskins plan to score any more than say 14 pts?
A capable (time-consuming) offense is a must when facing a pass-happy, run and gun team like the Saints. Should we be scared of Rock Cartright?
My prediction, 24 – 14 Halos.
even with my pessismism this week (and I usually drink the Kool Aid in buckets on game day)
I can see the Redskins D putting up a very good fight and holding the Saints offense below its averages.
This makes sense, In fact I would go as far as to say the the Redskins will be the team that holds the Saints to their lowest Points Total for the year, as long as Carlos Rogers, Landry and D Hall all come to play, and really play./
Our Line can do some good things (D-Line) but we cannot win this game if we are giving up 60 yard TD’s on simple double moves
Pommylee
Die hard saints fan!
This 3-8 skins team could very easily be an 8-3 team. They lost 5 or 6 games by 7 points or less. They don’t put up alot of points but are very tough to score against. They almost beat philly dallas and the giants. We’re 0-2 against the skins since 2006 and we looked flat both losses.
This is a scary game and cannot be overlooked! The key is: no turnovers and no bad penalties. I hope the skins aren’t our nemesis and every team has a nemesis. Back when Montana and Young for the 49ers never could beat green bay.
Brees has 1 TD and 6 ints.against the skins the 3 times he has faced this team.
To Payton and Brees…stay very focused this weekend, and all will prevail.
Go Saints!!
You saints fans
are extremely cordial. You’ll probably stomp us by 35
i agree with all but..
saints have been very effective running up the middle. we rank 4th or 5th (sorry cant recall) in rushing offense. just this monday we went up against one of the premier run stuffers in the league in Vince Wilfork and pilled up @ 122 yards in @ 26 rushes. something like 4.7 a carry.
sorry i dont have all my stats correct
good luck sunday!
It will be their Gumbo Offense vs our Gumby Defense
An exciting, spicy treat vs our bend but don’t break.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
thanks ScottE.
this was damn sure my Hogs Haven Laugh of the Day. lol
SpotieOtieDopalicious
Exposure
For all of you Carlos Rogers backers out there, if you haven’t seen enough of him getting burnt, smoked, flat out ran past, scorched and Moss’d (Randy or Tana), than this is the weekend you are converted.
Why is #22 still on this team? Justin Tryon has earned a starting role. He can not be any worse than #22. He’s proven he can tackle, and more importantly CATCH A BALL THAT HITS HIM IN THE HANDS
+1
I was iffy about tryon at first, but his interception in the preseason caught my eye. I especially like his tackling, which I understand to be a mentality he got from playing special teams. and he already has more interceptions than Carlos this year.
With the money he’s asking for he’s gonna be gone next year, his on redeeming feature was that he could shut down his receiver but I haven’t seen that in weeks. Franchise him and see if we can get some draft picks, and let’s have a CB battle in the offseason. Barnes v. Tryon v. Westbrook.
SpotieOtieDopalicious
I almost fell out of my chair
when TB caught that interception last week. I’m thru with 22. The guy can’t (or isn’t put in the position to) cover anymore and has the hands of a squash court.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Of all the NFC teams....
The Saints are one of the few that I have no hatred for. I don’t know why. Maybe because Brees seems like a good guy, humble. Plus they had all those years of bad teams, they deserve some success. I wouldn’t mind seeing them undefeated in the Super Bowl.
I like how they spanked our division rivals this year, too. I read an article a few weeks back (probably on the Cowboys blog) saying that the Cowgirls were the only team that was going to be able to challenge the Saints unbeaten season this year…. “Child Please” (C. Ochocinco) I hope the Saints open a massive can of whoop ass on them. Please guys, score 60 points on them.
On the other hand, if the Saints aren’t worried about this one, they better be. The Skins love irony. We love to suck and miss the playoffs. But we also have a knack at making our seasons even more rediculous by beating a handfull of good teams every year.
We beat both of the teams in the NFC championship last year. I’m pretty sure that the year the Ravens won the SB, we beat them and the Giants… yet missed the playoffs.
I’d like to see the Saints undefeated. But a loss to the Redskins is so rediculous, it just might happen.
+10
Goes with my “head exploding” comment in the HH game poll post. Every year, we play a few games that make us look like “Idol” winners, but most often we come out looking like a tired lounge act. I can’t figure out if this team is a bunch of underachievers, whether it’s some kind of continuity issue, poor leadership, lack of discipline, morale, etc. – or whether the FFO’s RIW is actually correct when he says he delivers a nice package of playoff potential: I guess without batteries included.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Maybe we win 7-6
Maybe we win 10-7 or 3-0 one thing is for certain dont underestimate Greg Williams
I dont see him allowing the Redskins more points then us no matter what I gotta believe he will have the defense motivated
And if we are up big i can see him talking Sean into running it up as a message to Dan Snyder
by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 4, 2009 6:38 AM EST reply actions
We will need
to do something on offense that would totally surprise him. Beware Hunter the Punter!!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Mother Nature?
She must be playing a trick with DC. Is it going to snow in N.O.L.A..before it snows in DC.Come on Man. GEAUX SAINTS.
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