Percentages for keeping anyone on this team?

OK, seven weeks ago, Jason Campbell and Jim Zorn were dead men walking -- two guys expecting pink slips in their stockings and with no one else interested.  All of a sudden, the Redskins wake up in the second half of the Falcons game, beat Denver, lose to Dallas, Philly, and New Orleans by a combined 7 points, and destroy Oakland.  Now, the decision isn't so clear, right?

So what are the chances that we keep these two guys, as well as others who might be on their way out?  In the event that next year is uncapped, naturally, there will be no cap hit for cutting players, which means that dead weight could disappear very quickly.  Also, there are some tradeable assets on this team.  So here's who I'm asking about (my thoughts after the jump):

Jason Campbell - putting up career numbers behind David Carr's backup line from Houston, but we all know Snyder and Cerrato have been courting everyone (except Brett Favre, strangely enough) for almost a year now.

Jim Zorn - Dead man walking after that Carolina loss, and it kept getting worse from there.  Sherm Lewis's arrival in the play-calling scheme undermines the recent success, but this is a system that was sold as a 2-3 year project, and the dividends are beginning to show.  The fact that the players haven't given up on him is a good sign.

Clinton Portis - Possibly the greatest Redskins rusher ever, he might go the way of the last guy who was going for that title (Stephen Davis); just as he gets closer to passing Riggins on the yardage list, he might get sent away.

Rock Cartwright - He's a true leader, and when he retires, you can bet they'll give him the James Thrash treatment.  But he doesn't want to retire yet, and with the emergence of Devin Thomas on KO returns, Cartwright doesn't mean a lot to us on the field right now (H.B. Blades is supplanting him as the best coverage man IMO).

Antwaan Randle-El - Punt returns by ARE = awful.  We all know that.  As a slot receiver he can be good, but is he worth the money just to be a third- or fourth-option?

Santana Moss - Obviously, this franchise really appreciates everything Moss has done on the field.  But unless a good offensive line can get built by the start of next season, Moss will never have the time to pull his deep routes, double moves, or improvisations.  Wouldn't it be a favor to him to let him land somewhere else?

London Fletcher - Still dominant, but wouldn't he like another shot at a Super Bowl?  Can the Redskins offer him that?  Will he quietly ask for a trade? (I know he'd never be the type of guy to do that publicly.)

Carlos Rogers - He's in the same boat as JC17 -- unrestricted free agent with the cap, restricted free agent without it.  He's been frustrated this year by the way the team has been run.  His being the only guy punished for getting beaten by a double-move when every one of our DBs gets fooled is not a good sign for the team wanting to keep him.

Chris Samuels - If he decides he wants to come back, there's no way the team can say no.  He's the most beloved Redskin of the past decade and he gets to decide what he wants to do.  But there's a pretty good chance he'll retire.

Levi Jones - He's been playing well for us, but what's his price going to be?  We can't spend too much money on LG and LT when our center gets closer to retirement every day and we don't have a right side of the line.

Greg Blache - Getting older and has poor health, first of all.  Second, the guy has had defenses that don't give up a lot of yards here in DC, but the sack numbers went way down when he first took over, the turnover numbers are still down, and big plays are a huge issue.

Sherm Smith - He shoots from the hip, which I like, but our running game has been mediocre since the midpoint of last year, and that's what he came in here to run.  Mason and Ganther look pretty good right now, but the coaching staff apparently doesn't like the idea of a running back committee.  Without a feature back, though, how long can you keep avoiding that inevitability?

Sherm Lewis - Let's face it, the Redskins have begun to score since he started calling plays.  It's a strange story, and has never felt at all permanent, but maybe Sherm 2.0 will stick around (if we keep a WCO anyway).

Jerry Gray - Gets a lot of respect from league folks and media, but his players get destroyed by double-moves.  If it's a problem with every player, I'm pointing my finger at the coach.

And finally...
Vinny Cerrato - He's got something with Dan Snyder, but people say Snyder has never been closer to firing him.  Without the inside scoop, it's tough to say which contributors he wanted to bring in and which ones Zorn wanted in.  Obviously, anyone who got here before 2008 was the result of Gibbs and Williams wanting them for the most part, but even then, Cerrato had some say.

My picks:
Jason Campbell - 60% - He looks great and if there's no cap next year, the Redskins might be able to keep him as a restricted free agent on the cheap.  Besides, teams looking for a new QB (Raiders, Bucs, Panthers, Bills, etc) look just as bad or worse than us.  At least here, he doesn't have to pack any bags.  But the question is, does he want to stay with a team that keeps changing up his offensive system?

Jim Zorn - 20% - This is a good sign for Zorn, since it's not too long since that was a 0% chance.  If we were to win out and play spoiler to a couple of division opponents, that percentage would go up considerably -- never underestimate the value of a good December, Wade Phillips.  One more thing: I don't buy at all into the belief by some on this site that Zorn could be demoted to OC or WR coach.  Who really accepts staying with a team but no longer being in charge?

Clinton Portis - 50% - He can't be traded (too much money, too much uncertainty), so if there is a cap next year, there's no getting rid of him, since it'd be a huge cap hit.  But I think there's a pretty good chance of there being no cap.  Factor in the fact that Dan Snyder and CP have a good bond, and 26 is at the corner of walk and don't walk.

Rock Cartwright - 40% - He could get cut with or without the cap hit, but there's far less chance that he gets cut if there's a cap.  But in the event that there is no cap, this becomes a Jon Jansen situation.  You've done a lot for us and we wish you luck.  We'll throw you a party whenever you do retire.

ARE - 15% - Well, it's not that he has no chance of ever playing for us again, but the fact that I gave Jim Zorn a higher chance of staying should be some indication of how little faith I have in this guy's ability to stick around.

Santana Moss - 70% - Another big December by Santana Claus could make this a lock, but for the time being, there's still a chance we part ways.  Fans will be sad, players will be sad, coaches will be sad, management will be sad, Moss will be sad.  But at some point, the team might have to realize that there's no use for a guy who requires more the the .7 seconds that Campbell has learned to work with.

London Fletcher - 90% - I put him on this list only because of the outside chance he might leave, but I think he plans on retiring with the Skins.  Then again, he might want to reunite with Gregg Williams one more time.  If the Saints put together a good trade offer, the Redskins should not be afraid to listen, but they shouldn't be trigger-itchy, either.

Carlos Rogers - 10% - Let's face it: Dan Snyder is a fan first.  He wants to see big plays and highlight reels.  Carlos Rogers is a well-above-average cover man, but doesn't get turnovers.  Having criticized the team publicly shows that he doesn't want to stick around.

Chris Samuels - 5% - I don't expect him to put his life at risk.  Enough said.

Levi Jones - 80% - This team likes to overspend and overspend they shall.  At least two of five positions on that line will be taken care of for the foreseeable future.

Greg Blache - 60% - I don't like him, but he can always stand behind those yardage numbers.  I think he should be gone because his style of coaching doesn't match our personnel, but that doesn't mean he's gone.

Sherm Smith - 15% - If Zorn is gone, so is Smith.  If Zorn stays, Smith might still be gone.

Sherm Lewis - 40% - If the Redskins keep Zorn or hire another West Coast guy, I can definitely see them keeping this guy.

Jerry Gray - 70% - He's a high character guy and certainly commands respect from people, but he needs to work on how to teach double moves or he's going to be gone.  He could take over for Blache if Blache gets canned or retires.

Vinny Cerrato - 60% - On any other team, this would be 5% at best.  But this guy is a roach and you just can't kill him.  I would want to fire Cerrato and get a new GM in here before making any other personnel decisions.  But let's face it: the most likely scenario is that Zorn will be fired first, along with his coaching staff.  Then Snyder will consider getting rid of Cerrato, but will decide against it because he doesn't want a complete reboot on the team (why, I don't know).