Football Insiders on Jason Campbell
by Pommylee on Nov 12, 2009 4:58 PM EST
30 comments
Was listinening to a Bill Simmons podcast last night, where he had Aaron Schatz from Football Insiders on to talk about the season so far. For those who dont know Football insiders is like the Statistical Bible of the NFL, ranks every player, every play is reviewed and ranks teams based not just on W-L but on all sorts of weird statistical gadgetry.
Anyway at the end of the Podcast Bill asks one last question "what player or team would suprise me right now by how good they are"
Schatz responded Jason Campbell and said that next year if he gets traded to a team with a "decent offensive line he will light up the league"
he then gave his reasons and I paraphrase
He is having career best years for Yards per Pass Attempt and Completion Percentage (gotta say the YPA stat suprised me if I had one critique of JC this year it would be conservatism but numbers dont lie)
In all his time in the leage he has never once been ranked at what FI call "below replacement value"
And went onto say that JC has been scapegoated by many Skins fans but he really should not be, without even factoring in the poor protection he receives Campbell is having an Above League Average Season and is far superior to both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez (and dont forget if we had traded for either fo them, we would have had no 1st RD picks for 2 years with which to bolster our Offensive Line)
Anyway I know pretty much everyone has made up their mind about JC one way of the other, but just thought it was interesting.
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I'm not surprised
that JC’s YPC has gone up as it was pitifully low due to the play calling and tendency to throw to the dump off guy all the time. The past few games he’s had more deep/mid-range balls caught then I ever remember seeing. Finally, you have to factor in that the defenses we have played against have not been steller against the run or pass.
I’ve said we should make every effort to keep JC for a couple of years while we build the line. If he survives he could be an excellent QB in a long passing game – not this quick read WCO we’re dealing with.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
One other thing
A lot of our offensive production has been against prevent defenses while we were desperately trying to come back for a win.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
I am a big fan of trusting statistics over more than my eyes, but...
How much do you think they are keeping track of game situations when they make this kind of deduction? Jason Campbell has made a LOT of hay this season inching slowly down the field against prevent defenses with the game either slipping away or decided.
If I have time, I’m going to have to look at the box scores and quantify this. Off the top of my head, though, I’m guessing that as much as 1/3 of Campbell’s passing yardage has been compiled in this way. Is that the whole enchilada? No. But is it the reason why his stats are better than last year even though he looks worse to all of us? I think so.
…that’s not to say that I disagree with the premise, though. If we swapped him with Sanchez, he’d start raining touchdowns while we made Sanchez into the next Heath Schuler.
There hasn't been any blowouts.
Most games have been close, all of them within two scores. No defense is going to go easy, or play slack, while they’re still that close.
false
If you are protecting a two-score lead with five minutes left, you play to cover the long ball and the sidelines in order to slow the game down. For example
5/6, 72 yards, TD with 3 minutes to play in the Giants game (down 13 points)
8/8, 57 yards, TD with 5 minutes to play in the Lions game (down 12 points)
6/9 71 yards, and 5 minutes elapsed with 9 minutes to play against the eagles (down 17 points)
5/8 49 yards, TD with 4 minutes to play in the Eagles game (down 17 points)
-——————————————————————————————————-
Garbage time Jason Campbell: 27/34, 259 yds, 3 TD
I have just given you 15% of Jason Campbell’s output for the season in those four drives.
by sofutomygaha on Nov 13, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
you should include where those balls were thrown
middle of the field yardage vs sidelines, cause they still cover the sideline, plus no defense will ever give you a td so the 3 td’s is irrelivent
the TDs are entirely relevant
If I play a prevent defense, I trade a higher chance of giving you a red zone opportunity in order to take time off of the clock. Are you telling me that the touchdowns that coming from those RZOs are irrelevant because I don’t actually usher you across the goal line?
by sofutomygaha on Nov 13, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
With a 12 or 13 point lead, late in the game, the last thing a defense wants to do is give up a touchdown. There’s no way I’m considering the first two (and maybe the third one) garbage time. If anything, it’s more difficult because the defense knows you have to throw more and can cheat the coverage.
I watched the
Skins march up and down the field against the G-Men at the end of the game. Giants were playing one giant umbrella leaving receivers open underneath 20 yds and in the middle of the field. That’s when we were most “productive” in the passing game.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Come on
The last thing the defense wants to do is give up a quick touchdown. There is a big difference, especially late in the game. How can we possibly be disagreeing on this?
by sofutomygaha on Nov 14, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
no blowouts?
only b/c we score a TD or two against prevents defenses in the 2nd half.
any yards gained in the second half when down by more than 1 score have to be taken with a grain of salt.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
footballoutsiders makes a living taking context into account
it’s why their stats are the best
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
One thing to consider...
I love Football Outsiders and the work they do. Something to keep in mind is that they’ve adopted something called the David Lewin projection system for quarterback success, and Jason Campbell scored very high on Lewin’s projection system (which postulates that you can determine whether a quarterback has bust potential merely by looking at two statistics: starts and completion %, if I’m not mistaken). Jason Campbell as a bust would represent the first data point contrary to the David Lewin projection system, so FO has some interest in his success, I believe.
LETJASONPASS
Where are you? I thought you’d be all over this post.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
oh he's here
just waiting in the shadows…
SpotieOtieDopalicious
to attack WITH ALL CAPS
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
You could do that same thing
For 85% of the QBs out there. They all get garbage time stats. So, just highlighting Campbell’s garbage time only tells part of the story. Most QBs in the league get several drives a season against prevent defenses. Also remember that when in prevent defenses defensive lines can pin their ears back and come hard on the pass rush, that doesn’t really help passing stats.
prevent helps completion percentage and yardage totals
it completely pads your stats
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
it's true... but...
it more frequently pads the stats of qbs who are playing catch-up, i.e quarterbacks on bad teams.
by sofutomygaha on Nov 14, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
JC
is one tough dude. His ability to pick himself up again and again and never lay blame even when it’s due is beginning to define this team.
And for my two cents he ain’t going nowhere after this season despite all the hoopla. Assuming the bargaining agreement falls through, he’s an RFA. No need to ship him away unnecessarily, since his value will be far above his pay scale. Then again, if Vinny is still in charge all bets will be off…
TTB!
This may be part of our problem
and never lay blame
We need a lot more accountability on this team. I don’t question JC’s toughness, but I wish he would light some rocket fuel under some of these guys at times.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
I agree wholeheartedly
I’m not advocating the identity as one that will inspire success. But it’s better than no identity at all in my opinion, which is where this offense has been for a good while now.
TTB!
I agree as well
A while ago (probably the beginning of the season) I read an article and some of the teammates that played with Jason at Auburn mentioned how he used to be a pretty hard dude in college. He got on everyone’s behind when they didn’t perform. If thats the case I wonder what is keeping him from showing that same fire.
It may be hard to look and be a badass
when you are looking out your earhole at the end of each play. :)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
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