Friday Night "Mights" - 3rd Down and Long for Redskins Season
It is funny how a regular bit starts out one way and then due to a mind-numbing stretch of football, turns into something else completely. At the outset of the season, the Friday Night "Mights" post was a place to boldly predict hefty stats and lofty outcomes for the impending game. Now it has been reduced to simply boldly hoping for a win.
The old adage "If you can't see the sucker at the table, it's probably you" comes to mind as I look at this game and try as hard as I can to convince myself that the Chiefs are the weaker team--that the Redskins aren't worse off than the Kansas City contingent. Let me tell you...it ain't that cut and dry. Yet the Redskins field a top 5 overall defense, the number 3 ranked pass defense, and a mediocre to slightly above average passing attack (stat-wise). Still, the Skins find themselves unable to post game results that indicate they are a team that is greater than the sum of their parts. Nowhere is that more apparent than on 3rd down.
On defense there are only 6 teams with a full 5 games under their belt that are giving up a higher percentage of 3rd down conversions. On offense, only 7 teams with 5 games played are converting fewer 3rd downs than the Redskins. This down is KILLING us. This is even a bigger deal than the red zone problem in my opinion. If we get off the field on defense one or two more times against the Lions and Panthers, we are staring at the possibility of 5-1. Yes, I do honestly believe that.
Interestingly enough, who is the WORST offense in the league on 3rd downs? You guessed it--the Kansas City Chiefs. On defense, the Chiefs are worse than the Redskins when it comes to 3rd down conversions allowed. This is my hope for this week's game:
Chiefs offense on 3rd down: 15% or less conversion percentage (They are 21% on the season.)
Redskins offense on 3rd down: 66% or more conversion percentage (The Chiefs are allowing 43% conversion rate on the season.)
This is where the game will be won and lost--I hope. If we keep Matt Cassel alive in the 4th quarter, we are in serious trouble, because he is poised enough to lead a game-winning drive in the closing moments of the game.
What else do I want to see?
*I want to see Devin Thomas returning kickoffs.
*I want to see Jeremy Jarmon and Brian Orakpo at the defensive end positions for the bulk of the game.
*I want to see receiver sets that are restricted to Moss, Thomas and Kelly. Sorry ARE. We have to make our youth movement now so we can see who is worth building around going forward.
Am I being too greedy?
Let's have all of your thoughts on this game. I am very cautiously optimistic that it will be a good game--certainly the best game of the week that nobody will watch but us. Hehe.
A win this week puts us at 3-3 going into a Monday Night game against the Iggles. It turns it into a meaningful game with the season back on the line. Let's hold off on that thought right now. I am not looking past the Chiefs. But part of wanting this win is rooting for the prospect of one more meaningful game this season.
I'll see you at Fedex. I found an old burgundy Redskins t-shirt and tore it up into armbands. We still have some fight left, so let's put it to use at the stadium this week and cheer loud.
1 recs |
33 comments
Comments
Good, reasonable expectations.
I’d like Portis and Sellers to have the fire and power to rush it for 1 or 2 yards when we really need them too. Attack the line!
by SSBlitz on Oct 16, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d also like to see fewer than 4 sacks allowed.
by SSBlitz on Oct 16, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’d be a great way for Snyder to show some remorse to the fans.
by SSBlitz on Oct 17, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Realistic yet, optimistic prophecy
I NEVER want to see Brian Orakpo dropping back in pass coverage again.
The Defense or Special Teams will score
CP’s 1st 100 yard rushing game.
Jason Campbell turns the ball over only 1 time.
by Elaw6 on Oct 16, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Passing game
I want 10+ plays where Campbell can take a 5 step drop and at least look to his second receiver
by Hustler of Culture on Oct 16, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d also like to win a million dollars and have the money delivered by a naked Scarlett Johanson. I think both things have an equal chance of happening…
by Hustler of Culture on Oct 16, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, to clarify...
the second receiver can not be a check down/safety valve dump off.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
by Scott E on Oct 16, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All the assumptions posted so far...
have been quite reasonable. However, the sum of the assumptions is probably greater than the whole that the Skins can deliver. Good news is if they get the 3rd down right on O and D, they can still win without the other stuff.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
by Scott E on Oct 16, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
With Samuels
career season ending, the O-Line has officially become a sieve
by Elaw6 on Oct 16, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's what worries me the most
The offensive line has got to come together and have a good game. If not, you can forget Portis getting 100; forget JC having enough time to look at one receiver, let alone two; forget about converting 3rd downs; etc.; etc.
by grandpa grouse on Oct 16, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Zorn
No mights for punt returns because ARE is doing just fine at punt returns
""He’s a sure receiver. He wants to go north and south, and his decisions have been good."\
I’m so glad, what Zorn is saying is with ARE as punt returner he is ultra-conservative and I won’t have to coach a player on how to do it right, it can be forgotten about since I already have more things to do than I am able to accomplish or do well as it is…as one man said…A GREAT HS coach, but he does not belong in the NFL as a head coach
by dr WNC on Oct 16, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
DEVIN THOMAS RETURNING KICKS ???
The reason D. Thomas is not reurning kicks is becuase Rock is a veteran that is it !! We are giving up a easy 10 yards a return with Rock in on kick off return !!
Now for ARE on punt return team he never goes north – south it is always east -west !!
by LETJASONPASS on Oct 16, 2009 6:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We are giving up a easy 10 yards a return with Rock in on kick off return
Let’s see. Rock is averaging 23.8 yards/return. So you’re figuring DT would average 33.8 and be second in the league to someone (Johny Knox) whose average is inflated with a 102 yard return?
by hsoup on Oct 17, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm gonna
temper my expectations for the O-line and say I want to see them get better as the game goes along. I know they’re gonna be abused and overwhelmed. I just want to see them improve rather than regress. I am still disappointed that Rinehart is not starting. At this point he just needs to be cut. Either way, I’m sure our stretch plays will go to the right instead of the left now. Hopefully Montgomery will hold up.
As for the defense, I am hoping for a strong enough performance by Orakpo rushing the passer that they are FORCED to use him there A LOT more. Ditto for Jarmon, especially with the injury to Daniels. I would also like to see someone OTHER than D Hall make a big play.
by CJHutch on Oct 16, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Offensive line
No temper anything, No sacks and 100 plus combined rushing yards.
The line is going to be better than the previous 5 weeks
by dr WNC on Oct 16, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Want to get really depressed?
Check out this great read from Bill Simmons on ESPN.com in an article he wrote about the Hogs in 2002. I loved those days, and when I think about the current state of affairs…I will now go beat my head repeatedly against my desk….
Go Skins
by Skins fan in Dallas on Oct 16, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm torn
Because I want to see us do well, but if the O-line holds up, Cerrato ends up looking like he knew what he was doing all along and will have no reason to draft any O-linemen in next year’s draft. However, I don’t want Campbell to get killed and Portis to constantly get stopped at the line of scrimmage. Of course a competent GM would realize that we needed/still need some O-linemen whether this line performs well or not on Sunday, but we are talking about Cerrato. It seems that everyone is at their natural position on the O-line so maybe that makes a big difference? I was watching CSN (Comcast Sports Net) and they said that the O-line stayed after practice to work on some things. They seem determined to put together a good game, if that is possible.
I also heard on CSN, Daniels say that he’s going to play because this team needs him?!?! If Daniels only knew… However, I did read somewhere that Daniels’ role was going to be limited because of his injury so I expect and hope to see Jarmon on the field more often, or maybe Orakpo at DE more often. I also hope and expect to see another INT by D Hall or at least two takeaways by our D.
I’m with you Sugar, I’m cautiously optimistic that we will put together a good game and pull out the win at home. If we were at Arrowhead, it would probably be a different feeling from me. Maybe Theisman rooting against us is what we need to pull out the win.
P.S.
Sugar, on my fanshot called “No More Snyder” is a website with over 1,000 Redskins fans that are tired of Snyder’s crap, so you might want to post a message on there telling them about Hogs Haven’s intentions and to get them involved. They’re completely trying to get rid of Snyder, but maybe you can convince them to participate with the rest of Hogs Haven.
Here’s a link
by bigrm18 on Oct 16, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's Now or Never
Sorry guys. These aren’t meant to be realistic predictions. They are meant to be BOLD.
If we’re limiting ourselves to realistic predictions against the Chiefs, then Sugar might as well just cancel the column for the rest of the season. Or at least until we play the Raiders.
This week is pretty much our last chance to break out. Therefore, I’ve decided to be extremely bold…
1. KC goes 1 of 12 on 3rd down conversions.
2. We shed ourselves of the need to convert on 3rd down…. by consistently converting on 1st and 2nd!
3. Our passing game shows a bit of 1st class luster this week. Against the Lions, Campbell threw for 340 yds, 2 TDs, had a 65% completion rate, and 10 guys had receptions. I say we better all these numbers against the Chiefs. I’ll even get really BOLD and say Campbell has ZERO turnovers this week !
4. For the love of God, SCORE 30 POINTS ! Please ! This is our last chance Can we please go out and punch just one team in the mouth? Just one is all I’m asking. I don’t feel like waiting until week 14 for another chance !
5. Cowgirls, Philly, and Giants all lose this week.
by DCtoAustralia on Oct 17, 2009 1:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SCORE 30 POINTS
Sorry, that’s not bold, it’s insane. With Samuels out, the skins have the worse OL in the league.
by hsoup on Oct 17, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You Forgot the Exclaimation Point
!
Now it’s out of context….
That 30 must have been a typo, because I would much rather see 35 !
by DCtoAustralia on Oct 17, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here are my hopes and dreams....
Campbell 68% completions over 300 yards 3 TDs 1 int
Portis 101 yards rushing 2 rec 25 yards 1 TD
Cooley 4 rec 50 yards 1 TD
Moss 6 rec 120 yards 1 TD
ARE 10 yard avg on punt returns (not sideways) 2 rec 30 yards
Thomas/Kelly/Davis 6 rec 90 yards 1 TD
Defense 4 sacks 2 int 1 fum rec (1 turnover for TD) 70% 3rd down stops
Suisham 5 kickoffs and 5 extra points
Chiefs . . . jack shit…….I want their team to be top of the headlines instead of us after the game!!!!!!
by shvd98z24 on Oct 17, 2009 1:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You were
ALMOST believable, then you ruined it.
ARE 10 yard avg on punt returns (not sideways)
by CJHutch on Oct 17, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nicew dreams
hopefully you won’t wake up with “could-a, should-a, would-a”.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
by GeoFly on Oct 17, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never have regrets from dreams.....
Don’t make me list what I actually expect…..then you will see how well grounded I am!
by shvd98z24 on Oct 17, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just out of curiousity...
I wonder how well Moss would play at a slot position…
JJ Fe
by Rydaddy617 on Oct 17, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who's on the outside.....
Malcolm and Devin? Those are traditionally your 1 & 2 or 1 & 3 receivers……I don’t know that either of them has proven themselves to either role! However, I would love to see them force these youngsters in so we can really see what we have! I am assuming Moss stays in on 2 receiver sets?
by shvd98z24 on Oct 17, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
want to see receiver sets that are restricted to Moss, Thomas and Kelly. Sorry ARE. We have to make our youth movement now so we can see who is worth building around going forward
Most important thing is to find out about Campbell. Unfortunately the O line makes that difficult. But we absolutely have to play ARE if he’s a better receiving option right now. Because it’s most important to give Campbell the best options possible. Thomas and Kelly are going to be on the roster next year either way. I mean, I hope we’re not drafting a lot of receivers in the next draft. Hopefully we’ll draft about 5 offensive linemen.
by hsoup on Oct 17, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I really thought Washington would go olineman in the last draft because it was area of greatest need. But adding Haynesworth thru FA and Orapko in the draft made good sense considering divisional opponents’ QB’s.
Could be worse though – KC’s oline is :
LT Wade Smith
LG Waters
C Niswinger
RG Goff
RT O’Callahan
by WarWolf on Oct 17, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see Orakpo play more too
Wasn’t it nice of so many NFL teams to pass on him so the Redskins could draft Orakpo ?
by WarWolf on Oct 17, 2009 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 
















