New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins home opener
by Skin Patrol on Sep 14, 2008 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintNew Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins, Sep 14, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Game is scheduled for 1:00PM Eastern. I'm writing this open thread as of Friday, two days before kickoff, because I'll be traveling through hurricane weather potentially at some point between the next two days and I'm just not sure how much access to the internet I'll have. That is stated so that when you read this and go "Nuh uh Skin Patrol, X isn't injured anymore he was upgraded to probable like two hours ago, stoopid" I can say: I have no time machines.
An injury report will have to be gathered from collecting data from this webpage or else visiting Redskins.com as I don't have any current, easily consumable info for reader(s).
I'll schedule posting early on Sunday so hopefully this info will reach you in time. Click through to this link for NFL Distribution Maps as of Friday, so for those of you outside the alotted green areas, you best find a friend with Sunday Ticket or else yourself into a sports bar come 1:00PM Eastern. Our coverage is not so hot, hot, hot.
Prediction: As this has been or currently is an even line game I don't even feel bad picking the Redskins something like 24-20. You are encouraged to get your own predictions in the comments below, which I hope tap out over 100+ as they did last week, even without me around. If alive, I'll be outside the broadcast range so you'll have to do without me again this week.
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28-17 Skins
I think the injuries for the Saints will be too much to overcome. The Skins have had a looong time to get ready for this game. This game should be a gift. I feel like the defense could have a big game…maybe a pick six or something. Portis will go over 100 yards with a score.
Yes…I’m home and waiting impatiently. Too early to drink?
Chris Horton
Should be starting at safety today with Doughty out. For me, that will be one of the more interesting things to watch. He looked like he may have been a steal in the preseason.
Marcus Washington is out too…thats no good.
24-14 Skins
I am worried about the injuries as well, which is why I am giving NO 14 here. I think without Marques Colston, they are much diminished. We should also be able to run all over them, and I hope for more than 100 yards and a score from Portis, and some good carries for Betts as well.
Now if we can just get the passing game going, and integrate the TEs this should be a walk.
by matthiasstephan on Sep 14, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions
Earlier in the week...
I was supposed to get the Giants-Rams game. I saw the Rams last week. They’re that bad.
Yes, I am a nerd.
1st pass... 1 yard.
2nd down. 1 yard run.
3rd and 8. Not what the Skins want to be in.
Then a 1st down to ARE. Next play, bubble screen for another 1st down.
Not throwing deep like SP requested, but making 1st downs. That’s key.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Kelly was on the field
with Thomas before they called timeout.
Good sign to see Kelly. Even if he is just the 4th WR in a 4 WR set.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Portis
Just flew five yards trying to throw a block for Santana. I love it.
Chicago defense is legit
They just blocked a punt and returned for a td against Carolina. what do you think?
Kelly 1st catch...
for a first down. If he wasn’t 6’4 and 220+, he would have been stopped.
Yes, I am a nerd.
suisham cant miss those
its just like the seattle game. the points arent that important but the momentum is.
Horton starting for Doughty...
I really liked what I saw from him in preseason.
3 and out. Negated because Rogers threw Henderson out of bounds.
Fuck.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Redskins called a timeout.
2 timeouts gone. We’re not even halfway through the 1st quarter.
Poor clock management continues.
Yes, I am a nerd.
INT taken away because of offsides.
Skins are playing their way to a loss. They keep giving the Saints chances. That offense is too good to do that.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Fumble recovery by Horton.
Good play by McIntosh. I’m not sure I like the match-up long term, but it worked out here.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Horton
Seems to always be around the play. He’s everywhere.
The Skins keep running up the middle...
and getting nothing.
Next play, they run outside and they get 10. Next play, outside for 5.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Did anyone see ARE getting cleaned out...
trying to get on the field? He ran into Yoder and Yoder didn’t move an inch.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Wish I could see this game
Instead, I get to see Bulger and Jackson run into each other on a handoff and bang knees.
What’s our score?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
Horton INT.
He might just play his way into the starting lineup.
Smoot tips it away from Shockey. Good play by Horton.
Yes, I am a nerd.
I like they way he plays.
I like Doughty as well. Horton seems faster, quicker, bigger.
Doughty seems to always be in the right spot. I think both should see time back there.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Right now.
I feel like this is one of those possessions where the new big guys need to pay off. Can we please get six instead of three.
Cooley just went down funny.
Losing Cooley
apparently wouldn’t be that big of a deal, since he has no value in Zorn’s offense.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Peterson already has 72 yards rushing
vs the Colts and it is early 2nd quarter.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
I love PIP...
but I need Manning to start picking it up. I need points. Although, my defense is MIN’s.
Yes, I am a nerd.
I need to make a trade.
My bench is stacked.
I dont know...
I dont really need anything…maybe an upgrade at tight end since Dallas Clark is busted up.
106 now
with 8 left in the half.
Wonder if he has a shot at his own record.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd and 3 running play.
Seems like Zorn is content for 3 points.
6-0.
I guess the defense is playing well. But 2 turnovers need to result in more than 2 FGs.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Is it me?
Or does Ladell Betts seem like the worst short yardage back. He can never seem to get that clutch 1-3 yard pick up when it counts.
Unbelievable.
Randle El FUMBLES the punt. Saints recover. Thats a disaster.
That's what happens
when your punt returner has a broken hand.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
NFL radio
says he walked off on his own power and is just sitting on the bench, so he must be ‘ok’.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
He didnt get hit.
He just looked like he tweaked something…maybe took a bad angle on his sore knee.
I cant believe.
We are about to lose this lead despite dominating this game. We are beating ourselves like always.
A whole half dominated by the Skins...
1 mistake and now they’re trailing.
Zorn has to get more aggressive. Take notes from Mike Leach on 4th down calls.
Yes, I am a nerd.
MIN is using the same game plan.
Field position and defense. Except they don’t fumble punts.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Now that we are losing, what will the play call be?
1st: Portis up the middle
2nd: Portis up the middle
3rd: Swing pass
4th: Punt
Or have we decided we want to win this week?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:01 PM EDT reply actions
You lose!
"Hey Butch, the rigatoni's getting cold. Get Speier up."
by ReggieBullits on Sep 15, 2008 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Big surprise.
Rock with a great return to the 40 or so.
Cartwright out to the 40ish...
That’s why Mason is gone. Good return when the team needed it.
Yes, I am a nerd.
The Lions are so awful
atleast, no matter how bad we look, we aren’t worse than the Raiders and Lions.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Radio announcers are blasting Zorn
“Think they are playing for another FG? Lord, I hope not.”
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd and 5...
passing play with no one open.
And, of course, missed FG. Maybe blocked. Maybe not.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Brown has two 54 yard FGs for St. Louis
it’s 10-6 NYG-STL under 2:00 left in half.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions
You could see that coming a mile away.
Maybe they should have blocked Taylor.
Campbell stares down Thrash
and almost throws a pick. We get lucky with a nine yard gain. Nice catch by Thrash.
Damning quote of the day,
courtesy Dick Stockton: “Every time they’ve had the ball, they’ve attempted a FG.”
Yes, I am a nerd.
Eli escapes a sac
by throwing the ball LH for a completion. Wow.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply actions
How far do we have to go to be in Suisham range
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:22 PM EDT reply actions
That'll do it.
COOOOOOOLLLLLEEEEYYYY
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Another big play from Cooley.
Already in Suisham range… if Brooks can hold it, that is.
Yes, I am a nerd.
Announcers talking about JC was late
with the throw to Cooley. That should have been a TD. Cooley vs. a backup LB.
Yes, I am a nerd.
First half thoughts...
Positives – The line is doing well, no sacks given up. Defense is shutting down their offense…Reggie Bush has been bottled up. Chris Horton is the predator. Jason Taylor is not hurt and has a sack. The offense has opened up quite a bit. Killing on time of possession.
Negatives – We keep getting 3 when we should be getting 6. This should be a blowout…instead we are losing. Cooley didnt get going until the last drive. He needs to ball early and often. We are killing ourselves with stupid mistakes.
Much different looking Redskins’ team than the one we saw last week. I am truly encouraged. I don’t see how the Saints can hang with us in the second half if we cut out those mistakes. Thats a big IF.
Here we go
Saints about to blow this one open.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:50 PM EDT reply actions
9 play drive
7 for positive yardage.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Give it time.
Their defense has nobody playing. It looks like we can get whatever we want on O. Just cut out the mistakes and we are fine.
Tracy Porter down.
Who else do they have who can play CB?? Deuce McCallister is dressed…maybe he can cover Santana Moss.
Sick play in the Colts Vikings game.
Lets see if it stands.
Chris Horton
looks great in his first start. I was about to start typing on the team’s continuing offensive woes, but we’re putting together a good drive right now.
offensive line is SOLID
Ok, so maybe there defense IS that bad
Thank goodness for small miracles.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:06 PM EDT reply actions
3rd down in the Red Zone again
cue another FG.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:08 PM EDT reply actions
It's too bad New Orleans
defense can’t score for us. They’re doing everything they can, though, bless them.
Is it just me
or is Campbell always 7 step dropping? This offense is allegedly all about timing, where are the short drops?
Screen on 1st down
Inventive…err, wait.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:09 PM EDT reply actions
Did he grab the back of his jersey?
I love when Portis does that with the blocker.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And we just marched down the field on them
chasing the points early.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Watching the Rams game
I feel bad for Rams fans. Their offensive play calling is worse than ours. They had 2nd and 16 and ran a shuffle pass draw that was sniffed out before it even started.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:14 PM EDT reply actions
The redskins are down
3+3+1 = 7 points this game, which does not even address the field goals until now in the red zone
Ouch
Just when you think this team is going to win, they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
DAMN!
The one point is really important now!
It’ll take two scores instead of one and a two point conversion later in the game
Wow.
What should Durant Brooks be more embarrassed about…that punt? or the way he runs like a 6 year old girl.
Need good defense and 10 points
Can Washington do it? hold NO and score 10
It looks doubtful…go skins!
So, we are down 9 now
if we had kicked the XP, it’d be 8…meaning 1 score to tie the game.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:31 PM EDT reply actions
Campbell
Started the season giving Campbell the benfit of the doubt on his abilities but a lot of the ineffectiveness this game is on his shoulders…he needs to get comfortable and run the game
Need a takeaway here
to get this team some good field position.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions
How many times
do they have to tell us that Greg Blatche calls Landry “the Angel”?
I didnt know that was his nickname though…but once is enough. Twice is ok.
We have a fumble that lead to a TD on a punt return
and we have a punt that was taken to the house by Bush.
14 points on bad special teams.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions
Redskins lost this game, NO did not win it!
Ineffective production in the red zone, a fumble and a punt return.
Sacked for 12 yards?
Did Jason think we were going the other way?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:43 PM EDT reply actions
How are we completing these pass?
Are we not patting the ball 12 times before letting it go?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it safe to say...
That Campbell gets positive reviews after todays game?? I think he has looked pretty damn good. He’s gotten better as the game has progressed. He looks like he wants to let her rip every play.
At worst (snicker)
we need another FG here. With all 3 of our timeouts, we just need points without having to use them. Then, let’s play some defense.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:48 PM EDT reply actions
Can the defense hold?
Can Campbell get us into FG range?
Can Suisham actually make said FG?
Inquiring minds want to know.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions
Crap
does this mean I’m late for work? Is that my alarm going off in the distance?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Now heres the flip side...
If we would have gotten the two…they couldnt beat us with the touchdown. Even with the single…if they were to score, we’d lose barring a blocked extra point.
Exactly
if there was a time to go for 2, that was it.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Horton seals it.
What a day for that guy. More PT for you sir.
How did only 7 seconds come off the board
between those two runs?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 4:04 PM EDT reply actions
I love that 4th down call...
Mike Leach called. He wants his 4th down playbook back.
Yes, I am a nerd.
2 INT
He should get consideration for defensive player of the week…especially since that was his first career start. VERY impressive.
Which begs the question
why wasn’t he already starting? Especially after watching our DBs drop 4 INTs last week.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Great playcalling all game.
Real happy for Zorn. Should shut people up for a week.
All game?
Did you forget the 5 FG attempts early?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Just about.
Im not happy about the five field goal attempts, no. Atleast we were in position for 3 points instead of throwing Brooks out there to do Lord knows what. Can you imagine what this game would have looked like had we needed him to punt 6-7 times like last week?
If you compare this game to last week, you have to say the play calling was great. They mixed up the runs more, they spread the ball around to everyone. I’d say the execution on some plays needs work…but the way Zorn called it was solid. I’m quick to harp on the field goals too but Ladell Betts should be able to get a 3rd and 2. It was a polar opposite game plan than the ones we’ve been seeing them run. To me, that’s great playcalling.
I dunno about great playcalling all game...
I wouldn’t go for 2. Some of those early calls were questionable. But 2nd half… man, it looked like both Zorn and JC got it.
Great game.
Yes, I am a nerd.
2 point conversion
rate is above 50, I believe (something like 52). Why teams kick extra points is beyond me.
Because 1 point is like, 99..
A team decides to go for two on every touch down will get beat by the team going for one on every touch down, when the offenses scored the same amount of touch downs. Always put yourself in a position to win, not a position to lose.
Two point vs one point places the team in a position to lose instead of the position to win!
Even if 1 point was 100%
it would be irrational to kick extra points. If 2-point conversion rate is above 50 percent then it is illogical to kick an extra point.
The team that always goes for two and scores as many touchdowns as the team that always kicks a field goal will win in the majority of instances, presuming any amount above 50% success rate on 2-point conversions. I’m going to post about this later.
See, for instances: If conversion success rate is 51%, then on three touchdowns you are more likely to have, cumulatively, 4 extra points (two successful conversions) than you are to have just 2 or 0 points. If you are more likely to have 4 than 2 points after three touchdowns, you have a better than not chance of outscoring any opponent who takes three guaranteed extra points.
by Skin Patrol on Sep 14, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Upon further review...
2 point conversion rate, over the history of the 2 point conversion, is actually below 50%. I found some years that were outliers.
by Skin Patrol on Sep 14, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Where are you getting these stats?
I’d like to see the 4th and short stats. I think that’s a much better gamble (historically) than 2 point conversions.
Yes, I am a nerd.
I found a Len Pasquarelli
article that had the 2004 or 2003 stats over 50%. For last year I went and counted every team’s touchdowns from NFL.com, subtracted the XPA from that for 2 point conversion attempts (since every touchdown that didn’t have an XPA necessarily was a 2 point conversion attempt). They have 2-point conversions MADE at NFL.com, just not attempts, whic hwas the tough one to get.
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