If I were a gambling man... Oh yea, I am. Vegas gives Redskins 7.5 wins
Hat tipped kind of towards Extreme Skins, from the old news department it somehow escaped my finely tuned degenerative gambling radar that the Vegas lines came out on the 32 NFL team's over/under record. I don't remember many of us picking much fewer wins than 7 on the season, though I recall a few of you saying we had 8-10 in the tank. If you still feel that way, I encourage you to call your bookie. Here are the opening lines for all the teams:
The above linked website (that looks like a potential daily visit for me) has its own worthwhile analysis. Reader(s) should note that the NFC East has the 2nd highest predicted wins average.
Does this worry me? No, and I say that giving Vegas more credit than most. I think they are pretty spot on, or as spot on as any human can be when discussing things of such variance as the amount of wins an NFL team will have on any given year. I actually really love the 7.5 given the circumstances (new coaching staff) since what it means is that Vegas is essentially saying Your Washington Redskins are a fluke fumble, booted kick, interception, whatever away from being an eight win team, and that could very well mean playoffs. If we opened at 5.5 or 6, I'd have been worried.
I can deal with 7.5, and actually thought we were looking at a potential 7 win season. Regardless, I'd never bet on the Redskins unless it is to their credit. If I do end up gambling on this, I'm taking the over.
Some of the lines have since changed, but the Redskins weren't one of them. The author of Vegas Watch once more provides analysis that actually pushes the Redskins up to 7.55 when factoring in "the juice." Rather than butcher it, I'll let him explain:
Last week, when I posted Sportsbook's win totals for the upcoming NFL seasons, a few people (including myself) wondered how we should factor in the juice. For example, New England's total was 12, but the over was -130, and the under was EV, so we'd expect them to go over more often than they went under. With the help of RMMB statistics guru Adam, I figured out how to account for this.
After factoring that in the NFC East improves as well. We remain the 2nd strongest winningest division, per Vegas at least.
I'm adding a poll, enjoy.
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Please Clarify
how the odds work. Is everything based on a $100 bet? +110 means Vegas pays $110 on a $100 bet and -125 means Vegas pays $75 on a $100 bet?
by Skins Fan 72 on
May 29, 2008 3:25 PM EDT
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Re:
I just called a gambling friend of mine, and here’s what it means:
a +110 means for every dollar you bet, you win 1.10. A -1.10 means you need to be 1.10 to win onedollar.
Above, to win 75 I think you’d have to wager like 93 dollars.
What it means for the Redskins: if you pick the over, you have to bet $125 to win $100. The under means you have to bet $105 to win $100.
by Skin Patrol on
May 29, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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So
based on the odds, Vegas thinks we might win 8 or more but they also think we might (with a little less emphasis) win 7 or less. Unfortunately we are the only NFC East team that is not leaning heavily towards the “over”, but all of the NFC East win totals are 8 or more.
by Skins Fan 72 on
May 29, 2008 3:40 PM EDT
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Maybe
this is me just being crazy, but I think one of the reasons the money is bad on both our over and under (which is somewhat unique) is because of the amount of uncertainty regarding te team. With a new coaching staff, Vegas isn’t sure which direction we’re going to go, especially after a 9 win season that was just a few good/bad breaks away from being 11 or 7 wins.
Teams like Tennessee (is Vince Young the real deal?) and Miami (new coaching staff, horrid last season) are likewise – on both their over and under.
by Skin Patrol on
May 29, 2008 5:09 PM EDT
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The only time I ever
bet on football was week 1 last year vs. the ‘phins. It was a $100 bet…when that “Hail Mary” was caught by ARE and he only got to the one yard line..the thought entered my mind “how much alcohol would it take for me to forget this wager if the Skins lose?” Lucky for me I never had to find out.
by CptChaosSidekick on
May 29, 2008 5:02 PM EDT
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vegaswatch
is a phenomenal site, you should definitely check it out. It’s definitely more interesting if you’re a gambler though. Also, Vegas doesn’t just put out the odds based on what they think is gonna happen. They take into account what kind of money the public is gonna put down. So obviously the colts, pats, and giants are gonna have money comin in on the over because they’ve been good (well the Giants, I guess) and because the public’s opinion is influenced by all the media coverage and what not. So the Giants and Pats are -140 and -130, which is some of the higher prices. The colts have a high total though, and I’m sure the starvin marvin situation is factoring into their + odds. Hopefully that made some sense
by DC Pain on
Jun 16, 2008 10:27 PM EDT
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