If I were a gambling man... Oh yea, I am. Vegas gives Redskins 7.5 wins

Hat tipped kind of towards Extreme Skins, from the old news department it somehow escaped my finely tuned degenerative gambling radar that the Vegas lines came out on the 32 NFL team's over/under record. I don't remember many of us picking much fewer wins than 7 on the season, though I recall a few of you saying we had 8-10 in the tank. If you still feel that way, I encourage you to call your bookie. Here are the opening lines for all the teams:


Nflwintotals1_medium

Nflwintotals2_medium

The above linked website (that looks like a potential daily visit for me) has its own worthwhile analysis. Reader(s) should note that the NFC East has the 2nd highest predicted wins average.

Does this worry me? No, and I say that giving Vegas more credit than most. I think they are pretty spot on, or as spot on as any human can be when discussing things of such variance as the amount of wins an NFL team will have on any given year. I actually really love the 7.5 given the circumstances (new coaching staff) since what it means is that Vegas is essentially saying Your Washington Redskins are a fluke fumble, booted kick, interception, whatever away from being an eight win team, and that could very well mean playoffs. If we opened at 5.5 or 6, I'd have been worried.

I can deal with 7.5, and actually thought we were looking at a potential 7 win season. Regardless, I'd never bet on the Redskins unless it is to their credit. If I do end up gambling on this, I'm taking the over.

Some of the lines have since changed, but the Redskins weren't one of them. The author of Vegas Watch once more provides analysis that actually pushes the Redskins up to 7.55 when factoring in "the juice." Rather than butcher it, I'll let him explain:

Last week, when I posted Sportsbook's win totals for the upcoming NFL seasons, a few people (including myself) wondered how we should factor in the juice. For example, New England's total was 12, but the over was -130, and the under was EV, so we'd expect them to go over more often than they went under. With the help of RMMB statistics guru Adam, I figured out how to account for this.

After factoring that in the NFC East improves as well. We remain the 2nd strongest winningest division, per Vegas at least.

I'm adding a poll, enjoy.

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