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Cerrato: More likely to move down than up in the draft

Among a post chronicling a happier, more evangelical Joe Gibbs, the "much less then the 2 million" we offered Hackett (he settled for 3.5M... elsewhere), and the suggestion that locker room chemistry is more important than the big FA signing -- novel, I know -- comes this gem from Vinny Cerrato (in "an interview that will air tomorrow on Comcast and re-air when [Bram Weinstein] fill[s] in for the Riggo crew next week") at Covering the Redskins:

As for the Skins draft position, asked how he feels about their spot at 21, Cerrato said that "if we don't pick there, we're more likely to move down then up." Obviously it's early to have any real sense of that, but it was a striking dose of honesty about where the team stands.. They don't mind their spot in the lower third of the first round..
We moved up to draft Jason Campbell, Chris Cooley, and Rocky McIntosh. By all accounts those decisions were proper or at least justifiable, as all three have been contributing starters on this team. Cooley is a pro bowl talent we snagged in the 3rd round (we gave up a 2nd rounder in addition to swapping 5th rounders with New Orleans). That said, I advocated strongly last year towards trading down and support a draft strategy that increases the amount of picks. As should be obvious even in the Chris Cooley example, we wouldn't have been in a position to need to trade up for New Orleans' third round pick in that draft if we'd had our own, which we didn't; Jacksonville had ours, which they traded to Green Bay. Had we our 2nd round pick, we could've taken Cooley there I suppose, but we gave that one to Denver. If he fell to the 4th, which he wouldn't but it's nice to imagine such a scenario, San Fransisco had our pick.

Which is not to say anything untoward. We were right to move up and draft Chris Cooley. I feel as though we were right to do the same with Jason Campbell and Rocky McIntosh. But with such a proclivity for making good decisions with few picks, it troubles me that the team hasn't retained more of them in years past. Now we finally have an opportunity to do so, and I'm pleased to see Vinny committing to, once more, additional picks as opposed to fewer ones. Trading down isn't nearly as valuable at 21 than it would be for a top 10 pick, but it would yield a few additional later round picks and would also save us on the signing bonus to whomever we do end up selecting. Depending on how the board shakes out, and there can be no clear consensus as to who we should take 21 picks into the draft, we'll have more incentive to move down for picks than move up, at least as Cerrato tells us.

Personally I appreciate that strategy more than moving up, though say that admitting how well we've done with that strategy. If we can maintain the success we've had at drafting quality players, then the sky really is the limit on how we do when we actually have picks.

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I'm not a fan
of drafting QB's in the first round, let alone trading up for them.  too late now.  I think the team would benefit greatly from trading their number 1 for a 2 and a three...I think Sf has two number twos.  I wonder if teams really hurting (MIA, ATL) would like a little extra first rond talent.  I wouldn't think it unreasonable to see the Browns trade with us, as they have no first rounder, and are an impact player (namely on defense) away from a divisional title...and theycould use a run stuffer at end or help at LB and DB...so...sounds good to me.  But since the Browns have/had the 22nd pick, it's a little late for a 2 and a three...but I could surely live with that.

by JustinU804 on Mar 20, 2008 3:14 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd love to see us
use the 1st for a 2nd and 3rd. I don't know how easy that is to pull off, but I'd be very close to signing the dotted line.

by Skin Patrol on Mar 20, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well...
according to the trusty old chart, a #21 pick gets you 800 points.

So, do some math and unless you get a very top of round 2 and very top of round 3, you're gonna lose some value.  For example, the 1st pick in the second round (580) and the 10th pick in the 3rd (220) is equivalent... but not many teams will have those types of picks to trade away.

The best value is probably going to use that pick on a player... unless you find someone at the tail end of round 1 who just really, really wants to trade up.  

Probably not going to happen.

by TexSkins on Mar 20, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Taking a closer look
Using the chart really limits the choices only two teams have the right mix to increase the value based on 800: Kansas City and San Fran.
Does either team need the "super" star who dropped to 21 unexpectantly? Excluding Miami since BP likes draft picks and it would be way over value.

Then the redskins could slightly de-value the first rounder with Atlanta (780, 2nd and 3rd)add the , Carolina (725, 2nd and 3rd)add their 4th and you get value.  

Overall options are very limited, Someone could look into more detail as to what the 4 teams might need that would be available at the end of the first but not the front side of the second. My bet the Redskins just draft, but as they say "Just do it"...Work for me.

by dr WNC on Mar 20, 2008 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Forget the chart...
We need young depth...and this fradt has that at three positions which are looking good in rounds 2 and 3.  CB, DB, and larger WR's (third round, esp).  but there's wiggle room either way.

by JustinU804 on Mar 21, 2008 9:05 AM EDT reply actions  

A little deeper
The Carolina Panthers could be a team that would be interested in trading up to obtain a desired QB near the end of the first round.
Carolina currently has three QBs on roster: starter Jake Delhomme and 2 undrafted QBs.
The Panthers also have additional picks obtained from the trade with the jets for Jenkins.  
If the right QB is available at 21 which will not make it to 43 in the second round or another player wanted by Carolina by trading up they get two 1st round picks, lose a second rounder and lose the third rounder obtained from the jets still retaining their own third round pick.
Just Saying, Redskins trade 21 for 43,67 plus a later pick or a 2009 pick.

Atlanta is another possibility again at quarter back.  Atlanta has three, yes! THREE second round picks, if they become concerned that the player they want at pick 34 or 37 will not make it, the could decide to trade with Washington for 21 giving up pick 34 and 68, still having two picks in the second round.

Overall, it's not as far out of a possibility as I first thought or others as teams have gained picks which provides them with flexibility to the REDSKIN advantage.

by dr WNC on Mar 21, 2008 11:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Talk of Atlanta trading is picking up
Talk is starting about Atlanta trading-up to pickup a QB near the end of the first round.
First-round mock draft: Long climbing
"The Falcons passed on Matt Ryan with their first pick and decided to take Jake Long to add stability on the O-Line. In my previous mock draft, I projected the Dolphins to trade up with the Cowboys at the 22nd overall selection, but now I foresee the Falcons trading up with the Cowboys at this pick to grab Brian Brohm. Atlanta gives up one of their second-round selections (48th overall) and third-round selection (68th overall) in the trade. The Falcons copy the Browns' plan from last year and get a franchise OT and QB in the first round."

Only issue is that it's with Dallas at 28 instead of Washington at 21, Since Dallas has two first round picks most everyone will be expecting Dallas to trade one of the picks for more picks; While this means most "mock drafters" will look at teams trading with Dallas, a team which trades with Washington will ensure Dallas does not trade their picks to another team and lose the pick they wanted to another team.

by dr WNC on Mar 22, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

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