The Wild, Wild Wildcard Race: Where the Skins Stand
by TexSkins
on Nov 20, 2008 6:51 PM EST
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First off, I'd like to apologize for my lack of posts. As contributor hibachi pointed out, there has been a slower-than-usual post rate around here. Funny because after Skins losses, everything around here seems so slow down. Which brings me to my next point:
FEEL FREE TO POST.
This site is all about participation. A blog community is only one when everyone posts and responds. That is all for the soap box for me. On to the fun stuff.
The loss to the Cowboys (oh, and wasn't it special to have all those Cow Sheep visit... funny, they must have been busy in week 4) marks 2 things: an more specific and interesting wildcard race and 10 games of the 16 game season down. So, who still has a legitimate shot at the playoffs? I'm gonna take a look at the NFC, division by division. Let the fun begin.
NFC West: I'm about to write the Cards in for the division title with a pen. San Fran is showing too little, too late. There is only one team making the playoffs from this division.
NFC North: The Lions are out. Everyone else has a shot at 5-5. I can't see two teams making it out.
NFC South: The Saints are trying to play their way out of it, but they haven't yet. The Falcons, Bucs and Panthers all have a shot at the division and they might be able to get a wildcard team.
Our beloved NFC East: The Giants will win and the Skins and Cowboys are making a play for a wildcard. The Eagles still have an outside shot, but they need to start winning.
So, what do we have? To me, the losers in the South and in the East are the only teams with a shot. The NFC North teams will beat each other into bad enough records that they'll miss the playoffs. So, for the sake of argument, the Cowboys, Redskins, Panthers, Bucs and Falcons are the teams I see vying for the 2 wildcard spots. Obviously, someone has to win the South... so the other 2 NFC South teams and the 2 NFC East teams are going to be in the mix. The Panthers are already 8-2 and the best thing for the Skins chances is for the Panthers to run through the division games at Atlanta (6-4) this weekend and against Tampa (7-3) in a few weeks. The Panthers already beat Atlanta at home and lost in Tampa.
The Cowboys and Skins are done with their season series... and both face common opponents (BAL, SF, SEA, NYG, and PHI) down the stretch. This is important because the wild card tie breaker is a) head-to-head games, b) division record and c) common opponents. The full break down can be found here. The 'Boys and 'Skins split of the season series means that division record is next... followed by record in games between common opponents.
Basically, the Skins need to win and win a lot. I think that it'll take at least 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC. That means the Skins have to go 4-2 from here on out. Seattle, San Francisco and Cincy are all bad teams that the Skins should beat, even though all 3 games are on the road. Speaking of road games, 4 of the last 6 games are on the road (@ BAL) and the only 2 home games are division games. Tough road ahead.
On the other hand, the Cowboys have 4 of the last 6 at home. They have to go to PIT and to PHI and have Seattle, San Fran, the Giants and Ravens at home. Hmm.
That's all I got for now. What's up?
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I second the POST bit.
I’m in crisis mode in my real life right now and there really isn’t all that much opportunity to blog, which, I’m sorry to admit, falls low on list of priorities. Finals are not far off. I’m in the middle of trying to secure employment. Thanksgiving. Girlfriend, etc. Basically: Life.
I need help.
by Skin Patrol on
Nov 20, 2008 8:23 PM EST
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For the playoffs
it’s like watching a stock, as far as the Skins.
-“What are you talking about? Everything is fine. We haven’t dropped more than a dollar in a month.”
-waits 5 minutes
-“Holy shit, the bottom just fell out”
Our best player is hurt, our defense has been smacked around a bit these last two games and our invincible QB suddenly looks like it is Week 1 all over again.
Despite being written off for dead, I have a feeling the Cowboys will get one of the Wild Cards, the Bucs the other one and the Redskins will finish 8-8.
by Hardcore Legend on
Nov 20, 2008 11:31 PM EST
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Tiebreakers
I don’t think common games will matter vs. the Cowboys, because our entire schedules are identical except for a game each vs. the NFC North (Lions for us, Packers for them) & NFC South (Saints for us, Bucs for them). Since both the Skins and Girls beat both those teams, our common games record is going to be identical to our overall record. So if we’re tied with them at 10-6, say, it won’t come down to that.
Fortunately for us, it will probably come down to Conference Record. Right now we’re 5-3 and they’re 6-4… if we can stay 1 up on them in our conference games, then we will have the tiebreaker over Dallas.
The bad news is that Carolina and Tampa are 6-2 in the conference right now, and Atlanta is 4-3. All those teams, though, have at least 3 very tough conference games left, against each other and the Saints (Carolina also has to play vs. GB and the Giants). So we should have a shot at the best conference record among the NFC playoff teams — we’ve just got to take care of business, particularly vs. the Seahawks, 49ers, and Eagles at home.
by Dr. I Don't Know on
Nov 21, 2008 9:30 AM EST
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Whoops, I meant the Cowboys were 4-4 in the division. ..
by Dr. I Don't Know on
Nov 21, 2008 9:33 AM EST
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A critical game...Last week was lost as noted by a Post
Dallas game, almost a must win
As stated the Redskins need to become big carolina fans, which is easy for me being in carolina country, with them running the table on thier remaining games. Although carolina plays very similar to the Redskins, they tried to give Oakland the game several weeks ago.
Atlanta needs to wake-up and realize they are playing with a first year qtr back and head coach, start losing
Tampa needs to be upset this week! Just to help.
by dr WNC on
Nov 21, 2008 10:20 AM EST
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Sadly
the skins are right where they are supposed to be. I say sadly because I yearn for a win that isn’t finalized in the last seconds of the game and which is by a margin larger than a single TD. I say right where they are supposed to be because the Skins play their best football with their backs up against the wall. I’m not sure how it works, but time and time again it seems like pressure helps their game, and they flop when the win seems guaranteed. Its not an original thought, but its one that I take comfort in as a Redskins fan during this particular stretch.
The largest factor in the Skins’ near future is injuries. Portis and co. are still a bit banged up, but the improving health of the team makes the stretch run less anxiety inflicting. The largest factor in my mind will be the wideouts. If Moss has returned and remains uninjured, the chances of scoring more than 10 points per game are vastly increased. Assuming the D doesn’t collapse without Washington, it won’t take much more than 10 to win games.
TTB!
by Ach on
Nov 21, 2008 4:02 PM EST
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