Get REAL: Playoffs ?
by dr WNC on Oct 7, 2008 12:50 PM EDT
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PrintAbout an 80% chance, good odds!
A little history lesson on precentages and averages,
Which yes, using precentages and averages it should have meant a loss at Dallas and Philly, so the Washington Redskins still need to execute and need to take care of business over the next "quarter" of the season but they have put themselves in a good position. A hidden message is to win the division the Redskins will have to overcome the trend of New York being at 5-0.
NFL Victory Trend Index from Pro Football Prospectus 2008 through Week 5 (data includes games since the 17-week format began in 1990 — excluding the 18-week 1993 season — through 2007).
Through five games, 6.4 percent of the teams were 5-0; 16.2 percent were 4-1; 27.9 percent were 3-2; 25.1 percent were 2-3; 19.0 percent were 1-4; and 5.4 percent were 0-5.
The average season-ending total wins for teams starting 5-0 was 12.4; teams starting 4-1 averaged 10.7 wins; teams starting 3-2 averaged 8.8 wins; teams starting 2-3 averaged 7.0 wins; teams starting 1-4 averaged 5.6 wins; and teams starting 0-5 averaged 3.7 wins.
Teams starting the season 5-0 reached the playoffs 96.4 percent of the time; teams starting 4-1 made the playoffs 80.6 percent of the time; teams starting 3-2 made the playoffs 50.0 percent of the time; teams starting 2-3 made the playoffs 6.0 percent of the time; and no team that started 0-5 made the playoffs
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So you are saying there is a 20% chance of
failure?
As a fan that has watched the Redskins this decade take double digit leads into the 4th quarter and give them away, I’m still feeling that 20%.
Starting 7-1, though? That’d ease my troubled soul.
The question becomes:
Is 10 wins enough to make the playoffs? If the Skins end up 7-1 (or even 6-2), what wins do they have left on their schedule?
PIT at home
DAL
@ SEA
NYG
@ BAL
@ CIN
PHI
@ SF
They can go 2-2 at home and 2-2 on the road the rest of the way and still come up with 10 (or, presuming a 7-1 start, 11) wins… and that should be enough to get them at least a wild card in the NFC.
Yes, I am a nerd.
The way I see it, those remaining games fall into 3 categories
Should Win: @BAL, CIN, @SF
Can Win: @SEA (it’s a should win on paper but Qwest is our house of horrors recently. Zorny could be just what we need to finally overcome that.)
Tough But Very Winnable: PIT, NYG, PHI, DAL
The optimist homer in me says we take 5 of those 8, including at least 1 in the division. Even if we come out of the next 3 6-2, we could finish the year with 11 wins, and that should be enough for a wild card.
"Hey Butch, the rigatoni's getting cold. Get Speier up."
by ReggieBullits on Oct 7, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Wiinning at Baltimore
won’t be easy. That defense plus bragging rights is going to be tough.
That’s why going 7-1 is so damn important. We’d only need to beat SF, SIN and SEA to make the playoffs. The rest would be gravy.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 8, 2008 4:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
But I also believe that this team has the intestinal fortitude to win the 6-3 battles. We shall see.
by ReggieBullits on Oct 8, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
respect
all this ‘redskins should be 7-1 at the midpoint’ talk kinda scares me. just seems to set us up for failure. id much rather take it one week at a time. hopefully im just paranoid.
not gonna lie, i liked it better when everyone in the media said we were gonna lose, made winning that much better
I have to hope
that the Redskins have been bad long enough, and enough of our players have suffered said badness personally (2006, for instance) will help them keep perspective. Some teams and players have been good for so long that maybe they take for granted how difficult it is to remain so on a week by week basis. We certainly haven’t been good enough for long enough to think a 4-1 start is all we have to do to make the playoffs. Enough of our veteran players know enough about losing football games to understand the “Any Given Sunday” mantra, or at least I hope that to be the case.
This is very much a coaching issue. You have to keep your players focused on the weekly prize, which is a W.
The Health of the team
Staying Healthy is a key, along with strong backups who can “fill-in” when needed so players can rest minor injuries before they become major…
Any questions see Westbrooke, for the answer see Marshall, Springs and Heyer
The Team Joe built, be guided by the Zorn Master….
Yeah why not
With current tie breakers with Dallas, Arizona.
The Redskins are in the thick of it, as everyone predicted for an 7-9 to 10-6 team
yah we're still in fine shape
but we need to not do this to ourselves.
4-2 is still a great spot to be, but 5-1 would feel fantastic.
And Monday came
A Redskin team of 22 returning started should know better, just like portis’s quote…but in the end thanks to some help from other teams the playoffs are going to be a fight! This game will become huge if the Redskins do not make the playoffs and an after thought if they do…Monday has arrived, Sunday is gone
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