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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

TexSkin's Real Mock Draft

Update [2007-2-26 15:31:48 by TexSkins]: Thanks to sincethebeginning and BlueStarDude, I've altered some of these picks.

SP's first attempt at a mock draft was reasonable in places, and reaching in others.  He got the #1 overall pick right (JaMarcus Russell to OAK) which is the hardest part.

Here's my rundown on the first 32 picks.  (Remember, no trades here... Though I'd like to see the Skins trade down and get some more picks, that's not an option in this exercise.)  Enjoy the chaos that is the NFL Draft.

  1. Oakland - QB JaMarcus Russell, LSU
  2. Detroit - LT Joe Thomas, WIS
  3. Cleveland - RB Adrian Peterson, OU  (Droughns just isn't getting it done for Crennel.  I think QB Quinn might get some thought here as well.)
  4. Tampa Bay - WR Calvin Johnson, GT (A steal at #4)
  5. Arizona - DT Alan Branch, MICH  (They need help on defense, and this guy makes everyone on that front 7 better.  I could see a pass rushing DE here, but I think Branch is too good to pass up.)
  6. Your Washington Redskins - DE Jamaal Anderson, ARK  (DE Gaines Adams also fit here, but I think the pick is Anderson.)
  7. Minnesota - WR Ted Ginn, OSU
  8. Houston - OT Levi Brown, PSU (If Peterson falls, they take him.  If Quinn falls, they think about it.)
  9. Miami - QB Brady Quinn, ND (If he falls past here, he falls for a while, a la Aaron Rogers in Green Bay.)
  10. Atlanta - DB Reggie Nelson, FLA (I have trouble with this one.  I think Petrino would like to take his former player DT Okoye, but the team needs secondary help.  If they address either in the FA market, I say they draft the other.)
  11. San Francisco - DT Amobi Okoye, LOU (They have the most money to spend in FA, so whatever need is not addressed there will be drafted in round 1.  I think they can wait for Okoye to develop into a dominant force.)
  12. Buffalo - CB Leon Hall (Clements gone, Hall in.)
  13. St. Louis - DE Gaines Adams (Great value at #13.)
  14. Carolina - LB Laurence Timmons, FSU (They need help all over, but their LB corps were depleated last year.
  15. Pittsburgh - CB Darrell Revis, PIT (Their corners got beat too often, so this just fits.)
  16. Green Bay - RB Marshawn Lynch, CAL
  17. Jacksonville - DE Jarvis Moss, FLA (If it's me, I take Carriker from NEB but I think that Moss is too talented for JAX to pass on.)
  18. Cincinnati - DB LaRon Landry, LSU (Landry has the versitility to allow the Bengals to do a few things, including move S Williams to CB in the absence of FA James.)
  19. Tennessee - WR Dwayne Jarrett, USC
  20. N.Y. Giants - CB Aaron Ross, UT (I'm totally confused here.  Maybe LB?  Maybe a different DB?  Maybe a RB?  I'm lost.)
  21. Denver - CB Dameyion Hughes, CAL (Losing Darrent Williams hurts.)
  22. Dallas - OT/OG Justin Blalock, UT (I'm tempted to say a DB, but if the board falls the way it has in this mock draft, the value isn't there.)
  23. Kansas City - WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU
  24. New England - WR Sidney Rice, USC
  25. N.Y. Jets - TE Greg Olsen, MIA
  26. Philadelphia - LB Paul Posluszny, PSU (I think this is a steal.  I really like the way this guy plays.)
  27. New Orleans - DB Chris Houston, ARK (Fred Thomas got beat again and gain last year.  Definate draft-for-need here.)
  28. New England - OLB/DE Anthony Spencer, PUR
  29. Baltimore - OT/OG Aaron Sears, TEN
  30. San Diego - S Michael Griffin, UT (Another steal in my mind.  They could look at WR if they feel Meachem is worth the pick.)
  31. Chicago - TE Zach Miller, ASU (I think they go elsewhere, but most of the pros say TE here.)
  32. Indianapolis - LB Jon Beason, MIA (Already knows Dungy's scheme.)
As always, let me know where I'm wrong.  I still couldn't find where C Kalil fits.  Also, I think I had too many DBs going in the first round, but you tell me for sure.

And remember, the Combine is all about the defensive line on Monday, so more should be known about the player your Washington Redskins might take if unable to trade down from number 6.

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THIS IS A REALLY GOOD
preliminary board

1)I dont believe quinn will fall past miami.

2)If I were tennessee with all these picks I would consider trading up. This could be washingtons best shot at trading down.

3)I think dallas will be looking for a CB or S. They have drafted well for that 3-4 the last couple of years.Say safety Michael Griffin.O-line help could be another need.

4)Kalil is a top notch at his position but I agree its hard to fit him in the first round with all the team needs. If he falls past philly I think he goes to the 2nd round for sure.

5)The fact that good DB'S are hard to come by could push them up,thus making all your DB picks seem more likely.

6)If adalius thomas goes look for baltimore to draft his position.This has been the heart of their defense.

Its hard to argue with this board, GOOD WORK.

by Sincethebeginning @ Hogs Haven on Feb 25, 2007 9:29 AM EST reply actions  

I didn't see a fit
for the Cowboys at DB.  They just aren't getting the value unless someone like Ross slips.  I'm not sure Griffin fits in with their personnal.  I agree about O-Line help.  So maybe Justin Blalock goes here.

And with BAL, I see them having so many standout LB's, that they might want to address other issues.  Ogden's not getting younger.  Their O-Line as a whole wasn't very productive in the run game.  So a guy like Blalock falling that far just seems to make sense.  You're right they need to fill the void left by Thomas, but I'm not sure they do it in round 1 of the draft.

by TexSkins on Feb 25, 2007 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Board looks good
want me to submit it to Hail Redskins?

by Skin Patrol on Feb 25, 2007 11:36 AM EST reply actions  

If you feel good about it
Or you can submit yours.  In any case, I'm 100% sure the draft does something in the first 5-10 picks to completely blow my board, and everyone else's, up.

If you want some of your other reader to give it a go and post theirs, go ahead.

Or make changes where you see fit.

by TexSkins on Feb 25, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll submit them both on Monday.
I know that other sites are allowed to submit multiple ones, so I can send them as Hogs Haven drafts via different authors. I'll send mine and yours.

by Skin Patrol on Feb 25, 2007 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

no ILB for Dallas
This isn't the only mock that has Dallas taking Willis, but I can't imagine a scenario where they would use their first round pick on an ILB. They have two recently signed starters Ayodele and James, and they also have a second round pick from just two years ago, Kevin Burnett; and Parcells thought that ILB was the best spot for last year's number one pick, Bobby Carpenter. I think a WR like Bowe, Rice, or someone on the OL, Ben Grubbs maybe, is a more likely choice. But, hopefully, we'll trade down and grab some extra picks

by BlueStarDude on Feb 25, 2007 5:14 PM EST reply actions  

Honestly...
I would think you'd rather have a DB fall to 22.  You could try and find a Griffin or Ross or Revis or Landry or Hughes to help shore up that defensive backfield.  I think that's the most pressing need.

In my mock draft, all those guys (save for Griffin) were already off the board so i went with the best available player.  Kalil would make sense, if your team hadn't just resigned Gerode to a long term deal.  5 years I think.

I think OT/OG Blalock would make sense here as well, because of his flexibility to play inside or at the tackle.

But I agree that they won't draft a LB.

by TexSkins on Feb 25, 2007 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

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