Clinging to the playoffs viewing guide

by Skin Patrol on Dec 9, 2007 1:47 PM EST in Open Threads

Update #2 by BnG: checked the Cardinals loss off the list.

Update by Burgundy and Gold: Who needs tiebreakers? Here are the conditions for the Redskins making the playoffs:

~~A Cardinals loss (they are losing by 24 against the Seahawks right now) plus~~
Any one loss by the Saints (@Atlanta, Arizona, Phildalphia, or @Chicago), and most importantly
run the table against the Giants, the Vikings, and the Cowboys.

The Redskins can probably somehow make it with two wins, but this is the most likely route.

I still cling, perhaps hopelessly, hopefully not, to the possibility that Your Washington Redskins squeeze into the playoffs for an opportunity to postpone the dreaded offseason, if only for a few weeks. Actually if we make it in we will win the Super Bowl, I said it. Right now we sit 9th though have a tie breaker over both the Cardinals and the Lions ahead of us. Enormously complicated tie breaking procedure is here, but know that head-to-head weighs heavily in all situations. We're not going to have to deal with division tie breakers since we won't catch the Giants, so in all likelihood it will be us battling with the Cardinals, Lions, and Vikings.

So who do we root against? The Cowboys are currently losing to the Lions. Settle down, there's plenty of game left. I think the Cowboys will pull it off, though I can't watch since that would put me in the uncomfortable position of rooting for a hated rival. Not going to happen.

I'm not smart enough to figure out whether the Eagles need to lose another game for us to beat them in the wild card race, but I'll assume that to be the case. Currently the Eagles are beating the Giants 7-0. If some smarty pants reader(s) would like to assist me in working out tie breakers, I'd be much indebted to you. Does it matter?

The Seahawks host the Cardinals today in what presumably will be a Seahawks win, barring some intervention by the Any Given Sunday Gods. We just need them to lose one more game through the rest of the season (and we need to win all ours -- no easy task) and we'll be fine against them.

Minnesota travels to San Fransisco today in a game that's probably the least worrisome of the bunch. We get to play the Vikings in two weeks. If we win then, we will have taken the Vikings down to 7 losses regardless today's decision, and will have firmly established our tie breaker against them.

You also might want to watch the Broncos hosting the Chiefs. Why do I care? Does the outcome matter one bit? No, but where Gus Johnson goes, I follow. The guy straight up casts some broad.

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Here's an easy way to view it.

What it comes down to me at this time of the year is,

Do we control our own destiny? and
If we don't, how likely is a spot, and who do we need help from?

Let's look at number 1 first. Do we control our own destiny?
The answer is: almost. That is to say, if we win out, we will finish the year at 9-7. Would that guarantee us a playoff trip? Answer: Not quite, but again, almost.

So on to number 2. How likely is a spot, and who do we need help from?

If we go 9-7, the playoffs are virtually assured. Why?
There are two wild cards available. They will go to the two teams with the best records who don't win their division.

At 9-4, the Giants have one wild card virtually locked up. Barring a spectacular 1-3 collapse, they will finish with no more than 6 losses, which means they finish ahead of us.

The next tier of teams after the Giants all have 6 or 7 losses. This means that the 6th and final wild card spot will go to a team with 6 or 7 losses. The teams involved are the Vikings and Cardinals (6 losses each, and both playing as I write this) and the Lions, Saints and Redskins (7 losses each).

So the first question is: will the Vikings and Cardinals each drop to seven losses before the end of the year? Answer: Most likely. By definition, if we win out, we beat Minnesota in our second-to-last game, and they drop to 7 losses. As for the Cards, they are currently getting spanked by Seattle 17-0. If they manage to rebound today, they're probably our worst problem, as their schedule is soft from here on out.

But let's assume you're reading this and the Cards lost today. And if we then win out, there are 5 teams with 9-7 records at season's end. Who wins in this five-way tie?

New Orleans.

Why?

Tiebreakers are as follows:

1. Head-to-head. We have beaten Detroit and Arizona this season. If we win out, we will have also beaten Minnesota. This means that if we finish even with all these teams, we go to the playoffs ahead of them. Yowza!

Ahh, but we have not played New Orleans this year.

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. We are currently 4-5 within conference. If we win out, we will be 7-5 within conference. The Saints are currently 4-4 within conference. If they win out, they will be 8-4 within conference, which means they would beat us in a tie-breaker.

This, grasshopper, THIS is why we don't control our own destiny.

But let me put it to you in a more optimistic way; assuming the Cards lose today, If we win out, the only way we miss the playoffs is for New Orleans to run the table.

The same Saints who just lost Reggie Bush, possibly for the rest of the season. The same Saints who, after Monday's Atlanta game, will play a halfway decent Cardinals team, a resurgent Eagles team, and a pissed off Bears team on the road.

I don't think those Saints are going to go 4-0 to close 2007. I have faith they won't.

BUT

None of it matters if we don't take care of business. I'm not too worried about the Giants, who barely squeaked by the Eagles today. As long as Eli is their quarterback, they can be beat. I'm more worried about Minnesota on the road, but if the 'Skins are going there off of a Giants victory, they'll be able to smell the playoffs, and that should be a good contest: loser goes home, winner stays alive for postseason. And then we host the Cowboys on Dec 30, and a) hope they relax their starters in prep for the playoffs (they have clinched a bye) and/or b) hope they stink it up like they did much of the day today against Detroit.

Questions?

by zknower on Dec 9, 2007 5:27 PM EST 0 recs

okay, maybe not so easy

and of course, while i wrote this, some smartass made it much clearer in the grey box above. Thanks, B&G. :)

by zknower on Dec 9, 2007 5:28 PM EST up 0 recs

hahaha

Your analysis is quite elegant, but people might actually spend the time to read mine. ;)

by Burgundy and Gold on Dec 9, 2007 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

"just the facts, ma'am"

by Burgundy and Gold on Dec 9, 2007 5:58 PM EST up 0 recs

yes

mine is for the geeks out there who want to know WHY.

both of them! ;)

by zknower on Dec 9, 2007 6:02 PM EST up 0 recs

saints tie breakers

Anyone know how our tie breaks look against the Saints if we end up with the same conference record? (i.e. we win out and the saints loose one, so we both have 7 conference wins)

by George Brabazon on Dec 10, 2007 11:08 AM EST up 0 recs

We would go to the show

The next tie-breaker after division record is common games, a.k.a. "games against common opponents".

We share four opponents with New Orleans this year: Philadelphia, Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Chicago. We play Philly twice, they play Tampa Bay twice, so each team has five games against "common opponents". What counts is your winning percentage in those five games.

We have a record of 3-2 against those teams: we split with Phillly, lost to Tampa Bay, beat Arizona and Chicago. .600 winning percentage.

New Orleans has not yet played most of these teams. They have only played Tampa Bay, and they have lost to them both times. Their last three games are against the other three common opponents. By definition, if they drop one of their final three games, it will be against a common opponent, meaning the best they could finish would be 2-3, or a .400 winning percentage.

by zknower on Dec 10, 2007 11:19 PM EST up 0 recs

Update on Reggie Bush

He is definitely missing Monday's game, and is almost certainly done for the season (Sportsline):

A person familiar with the injury told the Associated Press that Bush did not expect to play Monday night and likely would not risk further aggravating the injury by playing again this season. The person requested anonymity because of the delicacy of the situation.

[Saints coach Sean ] Payton said it was "a little premature," to predict Bush would miss the rest of the season.

Bush practiced Thursday and did not indicate he was having any trouble when he spoke to reporters after practice. He became sore that evening, and the team ordered a MRI, which indicated a tear in his posterior cruciate ligament.

Bush had another MRI on Friday. It didn't show a need for surgery but did show an injury serious enough to limit Bush beyond Monday night's game, the person said.

Reggie's backup is Aaron Stecker: he's had a few touches this season and is averaging only 3.4 yds/carry.

I'm not wishing ill on any player, but the Saints without Bush will not be able to run the table.

by zknower on Dec 9, 2007 5:42 PM EST 0 recs

and more on this

According to rotoworld.com, Bush wants to shut down for the rest of the year. The Saints want him to play through the pain. And ESPN reports he's out at least three weeks.

by zknower on Dec 10, 2007 12:35 AM EST up 0 recs

I went to the Broncos game

It was cold as... ugh

Champ had himself a game. A game.
Along with Brandon Marshall (a surefire Pro Bowler for many years) and Selvin Young (He's really fast. And I remember him when he played with Texas.) And Cutler.

And the fact that they outgained them 450-100 until the final drive. Go Broncos! I'm not afraid to admit that.

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Dec 9, 2007 9:10 PM EST 0 recs