1 in 5 chance that the Redskins make the playoffs?

by Skin Patrol on Dec 10, 2007 5:54 PM EST in Predictions

I kind of like them odds. But they aren't mine, they belong to Sports Club Stats. Ken from SCS emailed me and was wondering how to improve on the site so I figured I'd release the hounds (you) to go answer that question on my behalf. Their metric doesn't necessarily make much sense to me, but nothing makes much sense to me as I've spent the past few hours studying dutifully for final exams.

I don't know if this adds anything to the impressive discussion between Burgundy and Gold and zknower, but I'm nominating them as resident playoff scenario gurus from here on out, in charge of updating the rest of us on what's important to the Redskins. Blitzburgh is invited to join them, as he's been more optimistic about the Redskins playoffs hopes than even us actual Redskins fans.

1 in 5 ain't so bad.

UPDATE (zk): One thing is certain. We will not make the playoffs unless New Orleans loses a game. As I write this, they are pummeling Atlanta 31-7. Yes, I know, Atlanta sucks. But aside from cheering 'Skins victories, you need to root for Arizona, Philadelphia or Chicago to stuff the Saints in the next three weeks. Apparently, Drew Brees is not missing Reggie Bush at all.

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We actually could make it with only 8 wins

Assuming we can beat the vikings, we would just need the Cards to loose a game, Detroit to loose a game (they end the season at greenbay). and the the saints to loose two (they are down 7-17 right now, so that will hopefully be one, and they play the bears and cards before the season is over).

Though there are a few 5 win teams now that could come into play tie breaker wise if we only have 8 wins.

by George Brabazon on Dec 10, 2007 10:18 PM EST 0 recs

oops

scratch that loosing to the falcons...I can't read.

by George Brabazon on Dec 10, 2007 10:41 PM EST up 0 recs

we'd be competing with 7 other teams...

as of today: philadelphia, minnesota, detroit, chicago, new orleans, carolina, arizona. of course, not all of these teams will finish with 8 losses, but today any of them could.

we would win a tiebreaker over chicago and detroit.

for the rest, it depends it depends where our 8th loss comes from and who is remaining to beat. it is conceivable that with only 8 wins, even philadelphia could sneak past us. we are tied with them head-to-head, and if we lost to ny or dallas, would be tied with them for division record as well.

one could work out all the scenarios, but things will be a lot clearer in a week. and it's easier to focus on controlling our own destiny.

by zknower on Dec 10, 2007 10:57 PM EST up 0 recs

You're the man z.

We've missed you around here and thanks for the updates. You are absolutely right that none of the scenario hoping or hand ringing matters one aiota if we can't handle our business every weekend.

Go Register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Dec 10, 2007 11:09 PM EST up 0 recs

thanks man

i've been through about the crappiest couple of years a man can have. but i am sloooowly emerging on the other side.....it's good to have a little time for sports again.

by zknower on Dec 11, 2007 1:56 AM EST up 0 recs

good to have ya back on the block

Been wondering where you've been.

Finally another believer in the Skins' chances!

by Blitzburgh on Dec 11, 2007 10:16 AM EST up 0 recs

The Vikings game is the biggest of the must wins.

Yea, a 3 win run to 9 wins would be ideal. But as far as 8 win possibilities go i'm 90% sure we will have to beat the Vikings to have a chance as it, seeing as if I did my math right, a loss to them would put them two wins ahead of us and they would have the tiebreak, so with only two other games in the season, we couldn't pass the viking.

by George Brabazon on Dec 10, 2007 11:52 PM EST 0 recs

explain this one to me

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/12/09/week14/4.html

negative cap space?

I think we've been like this for a while... but does it hinder our offseason?

by Redskinette on Dec 11, 2007 6:14 PM EST 0 recs

Lots to consider there...

There is some fact and fiction with that number. It includes a bunch of cap space that we won't be dealing with, for instance, Mark Brunell's expected regular season salary which he won't be receiving.

Will it hinder our offseason? That all depends on how the Redskins play it, but it won't spell disaster, in my opinion. Let some of the funny money sort itself out.

Go Register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Dec 11, 2007 6:55 PM EST up 0 recs