Detroit Lions Preview: Offense

by Skin Patrol on Oct 4, 2007 2:58 PM EDT in Previews Comment 6 comments

As others have noted, the Detroit Lions are kind of a big deal offensively. I'll try not to get all hysterical on that point, though the numbers certainly won't calm my nerves. (To alcohol we go!)

This coming Sunday the good guys face off against the 4th most prolific offense in the league, currently, with an intimidating 387.2 YPG. Good news first: We won't have much trouble defending against the run because they don't really do so: The Lions are dead last in total attempts (78) and attempts per game (19.5). So are they just, like, that efficient? Meh, no. Their 3.8 YPC is pretty forgettable at 20th in the league. Testament to their inability to score and make game-changing rushing plays are a meager 3 rushing touchdowns thus far and a long after four games of 24 yards. [Aside: Did you know our longest rushing play of the 2007 season has been 20 yards? Wonderful.] They are surprisingly good at fumbling the ball, though, with 4, bad for 2nd worst in the league.

The bad news: No team has passed for as many total yards as the Lions (1,251). No team has passed for more yards per game than the Lions (312.8). No team has more first downs through the air (64). They complete the 4th most passes (%68.5), average the third most per attempt (8.5), and throw the ball well deep (5th and 2nd in 20+ and 40+ yard completions, with 17 and 4 respectively). If a silver lining exists it is that the Lions have allowed a massive 22 sacks thus far this season, more than any other team, more than the majority of any two teams combined. To contrast the Redskins, Cardinals, Saints, Colts, and Patriots have given up 19 sacks. Combined.

Are these unproductive yards? No, the Lions are 4th in scoring with 28.5 PPG. However they are pretty dismal on third down, converting 32% of the time, which is about 31st in the league, I believe. Also 0-2 on 4th down. I mentioned yesterday that their defense was sloppy? So is the offense: 31 penalties (3rd most in the league) for 204 yards (10th most) tells a story.

My immediate reaction is that we need, need, need to win the turnover battle. This team fumbles and isn't all that great at protecting the ball, even in the air -- their 6 interceptions thrown is 4th most in the league. That's likely a result of the incredible 22 sacks the team has allowed, a trend I'd be all too happy continuing. Key to the game will be pressure and I am taping this one to review whether Gregg Williams has the brains or cajones to actually do so. This is an outstanding passing team in spite of the fact that they a) suck on third down, b) hang their quarterback out to dry, and c) thus from a) and b) can't control possession (22nd in the league in ToP). This team manages massive yards even under adverse conditions. Ceding them time in the passing game isn't going to help us in the secondary, whatever benefits the coaching staff thinks we get from rushing four with 7 in coverage. One of their prodigious receivers will get open, given time, and Jon Kitna will successfully complete passes to them, given time. Jam the receivers at the line, get your hands up, blitz aggressively, play mean physical football, and hope for benevolent results like tipped interceptions or sack/fumbles.

Let's talk principals. Jon Kitna currently leads the league in passing yards, has the 9th best passer rating, and is completing over 70% of his passes. Roy Williams is 3rd in the league in receiving yards with 388, damn near 100 per game. Both Williams and Shaun McDonald, whoever that is, have more receiving touchdowns than our entire team combined. So you're telling me that the Lions are for serious offensively even without Calvin Johnson? Yea, 'tis true (but he also has as many receiving touchdowns as our entire team).

What says you, Football Outsiders? Actually there's reason to believe that their absolute numbers aren't as impressive as one would think. Detroit is currently 12th in overall Offensive DVOA, 31st in rushing though 8th in passing. Their Wide Receiver DPAR Rankings have Shaun McDonald (5th), Calvin Johnson (16th), and Mike Furrey (30th) all ahead of Roy Williams (44th). News to me. They're reluctant to throw the ball at Tight Ends, though been successful in limited efforts.

Making matters all the worse is that we might have to outscore them sans Santana Moss. This would be no easy task with The Saint, near Herculean without. Still, look to costly Detroit turnovers to explain why we win or privation thereof to explain why we didn't.

HTTR

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I would disagree about TOP...

when it comes to DET. They have such a quick-strike, big play ability that they don't need to sustain drives to score points. Like the Martz' Rams teams. Like Texas Tech. For a team like this, TOP is as over-rated a stat as you can find.

Proof, you say? The Pats lead the league in TOP with 35:09 minutes a game. They score 37 points a game. 2nd is BAL at 33:54 and they score only 19.8 points a game. NE is 4-0 and BAL is 2-2. 3rd? PIT at 33:48 and 27.8 points a game and 3-1. 4th? OAK at 33:45 and 25.5 points/game and 2-2.

TOP isn't a recipe for sucess, it's just a result of a strong running game.

DET's 21st at 29:22 and 28.5 p/g and 3-1, between 0-4 STL (29:24, 9.8 p/g) and 1-3 MIN (29:14 and 16.8 p/g) on the chart.

The bottom 5? CLE (2-2), SF (2-2), MIA (0-4), CHI (1-3), and BUF (1-3).

I agree with needing to get pressure and on winning the turnover battle, but that still doesn't mean this team can't score in a NFL-record fashion. The defense needs to be solid all game, the offense needs to put up points, and the special teams need to win the field position battle.

by TexSkins on Oct 4, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

there's any doubt that when Detroit scores, they do so quickly. But considering the 22 sacks they've given up plus their dismal 3rd down percentage, it's hard for me to believe that those two factors aren't significantly affecting their ToP.

Quick strike offense they may be, Football Outsiders Drive stats show them to get favorable field position (8th) but are pretty mediocre in drive efficiency (15th) likely the result of turnovers, which they are 30th in per drive.

I think you're right that WHEN the Lions score, they do so in the poll position. But ToP measures more than just ToP of successful scoring drives. It also reflects possessions cut short by interceptions (23rd), fumbles (31st), and giving up 3rd down, which they do about as much as anyone in the league. Keep in mind that their time of possession is skewed additionally by the fact that they have more possessions than any team in the league (53), which means their below average ToP is actually worse than it looks.

I guess what I'm saying is that no matter how quick strike an offense you have, if you turn the ball over a lot and get sacked a shit load and can't convert third downs, your ToP will reflect that.

Go Register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Oct 4, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed about the turnovers...

but TOP reflects the amount of clock run down while in possession of the ball.

Here's an example: the top 5 scoring teams in NCAA D-I football all have TOP's under 30 min, or less than half the game. The top team, Texas Tech, has only 2 INTs and 4 sacks. I can't find stats on turnovers, but it's safe to say they generally don't turn the ball over.

The convert 55.4% (3rd best) on 3rd and are 6 for 10 on 4th down. They extend drives.

They've punted 8 times all season. So that means they've had only 18 4th downs all year.

They lead (as in, are the worst offensively) with 52 penalties for 522 yards.

And yet, they still only have a TOP of 29:48.

All I'm saying is that TOP is over-rated as a stat. But what do I know?

Dan Hawkins, head football coach at Colorado:

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins just called time of possession "the most overrated stat in football," during the Big 12 coaches teleconference.

"I don't think time of possession means anything," Hawkins said.

From a NY Times article on Texas Tech:

Leach wanted to move the ball toward the opponent's goal line, of course, but he also wanted to see how the spaces changed, to see what the A.&M. defense conceded and also which parts of the inherent disorder the defenders were failing to understand. Seven of the first 11 plays were pass plays that Hodges changed into runs. Finally, A.&M. brought a few more players to the line of scrimmage. Hodges looked over and noted Jarrett Hicks all alone with a cornerback and threw Tech's first touchdown pass to him. The entire Texas Tech possession lasted just 2 minutes 42 seconds. Two minutes later, Tech got the ball back, and this time it was only four plays and 47 seconds before the tailback, Taurean Henderson ran, barely touched, for 18 yards into the end zone. An idea about the use of football time was being challenged. The typical football offense seeks to eat up as much of it as it can. The Texas Tech offense, which at that point in the season had passed for more touchdowns than any team in the country, uses just a shade over two minutes on each drive. But speeding everything up has a curious effect on game time. A typical college football team runs 65 to 75 offensive plays a game. Texas Tech tries to run 90 - and sometimes does. A college team with a robust passing game might throw the football 35 times a game; at this point, 8 games into an 11-game regular season, the Red Raiders were averaging 53 passes a game. And because the clock stops after first downs, touchdowns and incompletions, Texas Tech's games are among the longest in college football. Less than six minutes into game time but nearly 30 into real time, Tech led, 14-0.

Same article:

A whisper of the old antipass bigotry can be heard in football's conventional wisdom: that a balanced offense means running as often as you pass; that you can't pass all that effectively unless you first establish a running game; that a running game is necessary to "control the clock"; that passing is inherently riskier than running because a pass might be intercepted and give the other team good field position. Leach and his offense are approaching the natural end of a path football strategy has been taking for 50 years. They are testing a limit. Synergy, in Leach's view, doesn't come from mixing runs with passes but from throwing the ball everywhere on the field, to every possible person allowed to catch a ball. "Our notion of balance," Leach says, "is that the five guys who catch the ball all gain 1,000 yards in the season."

Just something to think about.

by TexSkins on Oct 4, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying ToP

is the most important statistic in football (but if Dan Hawkins said it... shoot he won 4 games last year), I'm saying that teams that turn the ball over frequently and can't convert third downs don't do themselves any favors, and both those stats are reflected in ToP -- 3rd downs lead to punts, loss of psossession, turnovers leads to loss of possession.

I know that you know a) that I've read that New York Times article more than 10 times and b) that I don't have much personal respect for ToP given who I root for in College Football.

Go Register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Oct 4, 2007 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs